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FlashInThePan

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  1. You can't stop Cameron when he is on, it doesn't matter who you put on him. It is like trying to stop Kozzie when he is on, you just can't do it. You can sweat on him in stoppages but someone will get put in a block and he is gone. The only way to limit players of Cameron's skill is to limit the number of ground balls (ie. intercept incredibly well) and have more than one person keeping an eye on him (and a body) in forward half stoppage. Hunt has really lifted his game since earlier in the year but I wouldn't describe him as a gun lockdown defender. He has solid defensive skills, speed and a willingness to run and carry. You might want to go back and watch the GF again. Salem not committing to a contested mark is not something you will see on there.
  2. That second set of data was just trying to show that over the life of a forward, height seems to be only one factor. Honestly, I was a bit bored yesterday and your statement about key forward height kicked me into a frenzy of playing with data and the top ten goal kickers of the past decade just looked like really interesting data to me.Your statement about key forward height does seem to be a trend, I'd like to do some more analysis to see if it is a trend that works for or against teams. An interesting point was raised by someone that the rise of the tall power forward is due to needing to beat the defensive zone rather than compete 1-1. Logically you would expect that a better way to beat the zone is by precision ball movement and leading patterns. I wonder if the problem is more due to full ground defensive zones and an increase in pressure on the ball carrier leading to poorer delivery into the forward zone - more dump kicks. That kind of entry can only be successful with a dominant tall forward or at least the ability to halve the contest and take it to a ground ball situation.
  3. I'm just going to play with stats here a little bit... because why not? In the last 21 years (since 2000) the average height of the Coleman medalist has been 195.09cm. There is a slight increase in average height if you include only the last 10 years - 196.9. If, however, you look at the top goal scorers over the last 10 years, the average height is 191.8cm Season Player Height 2021 Harry McKay 204 2020 Tom Hawkins 198 2019 Jeremy Cameron 196 2018 Jack Riewoldt 193 2017 Lance 'Buddy' Franklin 199 2016 Josh Kennedy 196 2015 Josh Kennedy 196 2014 Lance 'Buddy' Franklin 199 2013 Jarryd Roughead 193 2012 Jack Riewoldt 193 2011 Lance 'Buddy' Franklin 199 2010 Jack Riewoldt 193 2009 Brendan Fevola 191 2008 Lance 'Buddy' Franklin 199 2007 Jonathan Brown 195 2006 Brendan Fevola 191 2005 Fraser Gehrig 195 2004 Fraser Gehrig 195 2003 Matthew Lloyd 192 2002 David Neitz 191 2001 Matthew Lloyd 192 2000 Matthew Lloyd 192 avg last 21 years 195.0909091 avg last 10 YEARS 196.9090909 1. Lance Franklin (639) 199 2. Jack Riewoldt (574) 193 3. Josh Kennedy (562) 196 4. Tom Hawkins (495) 198 5. Eddie Betts (477) 174 6. Taylor Walker (403) 194 6. Jeremy Cameron (403) 196 8. Jarryd Roughead (394) 193 9. Luke Bruest (392) 184 10. Jack Darling (378) 191 AVERAGE 191.8
  4. Sorry DeeDubs, you've shown some data and drawn a conclusion that there is a causal relationship. In stats there is a very famous warning about mistaking correlation for causation. Not only do we need to be careful about mistaking correlation for causation but also confirmation bias. When you start looking for tall forwards that meet your criteria you may already have missed a lot of valid contradictory data. I'm not saying you are wrong, by the way, just that what you have posted is not proof that all good forwards are 199cm+ just data showing that there have been some really good very tall forwards recently
  5. I know it is wrong but I can't find any empathy in me for North. It is completely irrational but I worked with a North supporter who used to grind on me every chance he got. His main point was that the Dees were completely irrelevant and even playing them was a forgone conclusion and a waste of his team's time. It used to drive me crazy and he'd dish it out twice over after they smashed us. Unfortunately I no longer work with him. I'd love to rub his face in the current, disastrous state of his club and suggest to him that they be disbanded so as to stop wasting my premiership team's valuable time. I promise I am not normally a vindictive [email protected]@rd, but I am struggling to let this one go.
  6. Our game plan is built on contest and full team defence. We never take our foot off the gas when it come to pressure acts, restricting opposition ball movement, harassing and positional structure. Over a year and a half we have built THE MOST consistent team defence that the AFL has seen in a very long time, perhaps the best ever. We have super high standards and the cattle in the reserves to enforce that no-one on our team drops their head or compromises on our 'non-negotiables'. We are not a media driven organisation, we are a performance driven one. We don't play for a headline or for BT to wax lyrical about our scoring power. We play to win games and ultimately finals and despite your whining we are actually very damn good at it. How much we win by is not a metric that we seem to care that much about. How we play our brand is one we absolutely care about. We push hard on that because that is what wins finals: ruthless, hard nosed, brutal contest and defence. Big scoring is cream on the pie, we score more than the opposition and that is enough. We have the tools to turn it on in attack but we do it the Melbourne way. We attack into areas that minimise our exposure us on rebound. If you are expecting us to do anything different you haven't been paying attention for the last year or two.
  7. There has never been a better buyers market in the coaching world than right now. In the seasoned coaches wing stands Clarko, Bucks and Lyon. On the highly respected but untested wing stands Yze and Blake Caracella (and probably others that I am not aware of). There is no way known that the AFL is going to give the keys to their orange Ferrari to James Hird after what happened at the bombers, it would be a PR disaster area.
  8. Sorry, the last remark was just me responding more generally to some of the commentary on this thread. Not at all directed to anything you said.
  9. You are entitled to record any workplace conversation you are in. Generally you would alert the other participants that you were doing so but there is no legal obligation to do so. Publishing those tapes in the media is usually a different thing, I can't speak to the legalities of publishing though and the fact that he is now living in the US and presumably published them from there may mean that Australian media/defamation laws don't apply. Given that the club was largely represented by Bucks with respect to Heritier I don't think there is anyway for him to attack the club without bringing Bucks into it. My impression was that he and other culturally diverse players attempted to engage with the club in their response to the Do Better report but no longer believe that the club is genuinely engaging with the problem. His only avenue to satisfaction, as far as I can see, is through applying pressure via social media and direct legal action - suing. While people question Heritier's motives they seem to conveniently forget that Leon Davis and Andrew Krakour have also withdrawn from the reconciliation process. Heritier seems to just be the most vocal one.
  10. I think this is exactly right. Although we try to defend the ground the same way every time, we have a few modes of play in attack and you can visibly see us switch modes when the time is right. I was sitting next to my son as the last quarter was starting saying - you watch we will slow play all our attacks this quarter and soak up the clock. This is our defensive mode once we have a defensible lead. We never go 100% all game, we control the tempo. It is actually strangely effective, when we switch gears teams get confused for s while and it often opens up scoring opportunities.
  11. Isn't that what they did at Essendon, putting Woosha in and then doing a succession plan with Truck? I just think they (or the media) overhyped themselves this year. They are a fair bit back from finals with some work to do. It is not all doom and gloom, they have some great building blocks, they just have a some work to do. Unfortunately when the media starts pumping this sort of thing up everyone stats leading with their mouths and the club can implode before the plan has a chance to bare fruit. Honestly, i could care less whether Essendon succeed or fail this time around, i have no love for the bombers, but I do hate media hype led decision making.
  12. There is no doubt in my mind that Gawn is one of the best rucks to play the game. Once someone gets to that point it gets hard to say what defines ‘the best’. So much is opinion and preference. What I love about Max is not just his mad tap skills and his marking and now goal kicking, it is his leadership. He is a big reason that we have this team first mentality that has pushed us to the front of the pack. i don’t know if he is the best that ever played, but he is a great of the game, no doubt. I feel super lucky that he is our captain, long may it continue.
  13. It’s funny how we all see things differently. I really enjoyed that game and I never thought we were likely to lose. I knew without a shadow of a doubt that we would play the last quarter slow and defend the lead we earned with a good 3rd quarter. We let an extra 10 points through than the high end of our average but we were missing some really important pieces of our defensive grid. They moved the ball aggressively and got exactly what you would expect. A couple of times they pierced our zone with multiple switches and quite a few times they came totally unstuck. i thought Hunt played a good game and a great first half. Others thought Milkshake was great but I thought he looked like an old man who can’t keep up. He kept losing his feet and the Melksham of 2-3 years ago would never have missed that shot dead in front. What I love is that we always play the same way. What makes our game look different is how other teams try to counter us. I’m glad we banked the points with so many forced changes. We got a good look at Bedford and there is definitely something there. Weed was solid as 2nd ruck and took a ripper off a mark to kick his goal. I also thought we had a great turn out at the game. It was a great atmosphere and there was plenty of red and blue. Our numbers are growing and if we keep winning like this we’ll win an even bigger following.
  14. This is going to be really interesting. I’m not at all sure how our system will stack up in the face of so many outs, including the coach. If we can get the job done this will be an incredible shot in the arm for an already confident group. Of the ins Melksham is the biggest worry for me. He has form for underwhelming pressure although I will admit he looked pretty good for Casey last week. Regardless, there is no way he can cover the distance to fill holes that nibbler regularly does.
  15. How good is it being the hunted?! All of a sudden teams are changing the way they play to try to take our game away from us. It will be really interesting to see a team bring it for the full 4 quarters, so far we have seen patches where other teams have had things more on their own terms but no one has been able to keep it going for the full 4 quarters. The interesting thing it has brought out in us is this ability to go full beast mode for 10 minutes to a quarter when the opposition loses concentration and blow them off the park. Brisbane or the Swans will likely bring a full 4 quarter effort, I can't wait to see how we respond. Bring it on!
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