Saints v Dees Rd 1

[ArtificialWisdom 3,897]

Just now, nutbean said:

I don't understand this. Why would you go to the footy if you accept that we are going to lose and we are no chance ? I would rather stay home and snore on the couch.

I acknowledge that this will be a hard game but I am delusional enough to believe that we can win every game we play as long as we play to the best of our ability. Basically, the games where we don't play to the best of our ability are the ones we lose.

2016 was the last year where we could accept a loss before the game started. This year there is not a single game on that fixture where we a no chance, which is great, but also a bit of a double edged sword. Round one is the prime example, we can win! but its likely we wont.

Every game this year we should be looking to find a way to win. This means unlike the last couple of years its not only going to be a very exciting year but also an extremely frustrating one. While we might have more wins this year, we wont be able to hide behind the "we were never going to win" excuse anymore. Any loss will be a bigger dissapointment than last year. I dont know about you, but im bracing for a hell of a bumpy ride. 

[nutbean 8,837]

6 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

2016 was the last year where we could accept a loss before the game started. This year there is not a single game on that fixture where we a no chance, which is great, but also a bit of a double edged sword. Round one is the prime example, we can win! but its likely we wont.

Every game this year we should be looking to find a way to win. This means unlike the last couple of years its not only going to be a very exciting year but also an extremely frustrating one. While we might have more wins this year, we wont be able to hide behind the "we were never going to win" excuse anymore. Any loss will be a bigger dissapointment than last year. I dont know about you, but im bracing for a hell of a bumpy ride. 

i am not delusional enough to believe we will win every game. Do I believe if we bring our "A game" for 4 quarters that we can beat any team ? Absolutely. 

[ArtificialWisdom 3,897]

9 minutes ago, nutbean said:

i am not delusional enough to believe we will win every game. Do I believe if we bring our "A game" for 4 quarters that we can beat any team ? Absolutely. 

Oh yeah i didnt mean you were. Theres a ridiculously big difference between winning every game and being able to win every game you play. We will join a list of about 9 sides that can win any week if they play well this year. None of them will win all of them (well if the Giants are as good as their hype they might come close).

All I was saying is going in last year we could accept a lost more than likely garanteed some weeks. This year every game will be like last years Saints/Port games. We can win, and its gonna be frusrating when we dont. Last year it was easy to brush ourselves off after the loses against Sydney, Adelaide, Hawthorn etc. I dont think we will find that so easy this year. 

Edit:
Just take the last JLT loss as an example. We lost to a full strength top 6 side in perth by 25 points and there were still people claiming we were pathetic. Last year we lost by 22 at our home ground against Adelaide and we were saying they played pretty well. Such is the difference in expectations this year.

Edited March 14, 2017 by ArtificialWisdom

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

18 hours ago, ProDee said:

He's been disappointing.  Has he kicked a goal in the 3 games ?  Might have kicked one.  I was looking on a Saints forum today and a few posters agreed he's not presently in their best team, but they know he'll be selected.  His physique still looks like that of a bush full-forward.

One of the best recruiting decisions for Melbourne was St Kilda taking McCartin.

If I was a St Kilda supporter I'd be annoyed they didn't take Wright who looks a far better key forward prospect.

[old demon me!!! 108]

43 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

Oh yeah i didnt mean you were. Theres a ridiculously big difference between winning every game and being able to win every game you play. We will join a list of about 9 sides that can win any week if they play well this year. None of them will win all of them (well if the Giants are as good as their hype they might come close).

All I was saying is going in last year we could accept a lost more than likely garanteed some weeks. This year every game will be like last years Saints/Port games. We can win, and its gonna be frusrating when we dont. Last year it was easy to brush ourselves off after the loses against Sydney, Adelaide, Hawthorn etc. I dont think we will find that so easy this year. 

Edit:
Just take the last JLT loss as an example. We lost to a full strength top 6 side in perth by 25 points and there were still people claiming we were pathetic. Last year we lost by 22 at our home ground against Adelaide and we were saying they played pretty well. Such is the difference in expectations this year.

As long as we play to our strengths and clean up our disposal we are a chance to beat anyone and yes expectations are higher and will remain so win or lose, i will only really be upset when we play poorly and beat ourselves.

We played a full strength WC and really it was only our disposal that cost us,tighten that up and we in with a real show.

   

[Wiseblood 24,636]

Dees by 10 goals.  

Hogan loves Etihad and he'll kick 12 on Carlisle and Brown.

Viney to have 40 touches and slam Mav Weller into the turf once again.

The McDonald brothers to have 20 intercept marks and not miss a target.

I'm being conservative here, too.

[What 18,810]

13 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Dees by 10 goals.  

Hogan loves Etihad and he'll kick 12 on Carlisle and Brown.

Viney to have 40 touches and slam Mav Weller into the turf once again.

The McDonald brothers to have 20 intercept marks and not miss a target.

I'm being conservative here, too.

Take the McDonald brothers out of that and it could actually be a realistic prediction.

[Ouch! 2,041]

Not expecting to win, but confident that we are a significantly different team that shouldn't be scarred by hoodoos any more.

Certainly I won't be surprised if we beat the Saints, and whilst I don't like the cliche' of it being an 8pt game, it's could be a pretty significant one to win or lose first up.

[Akum 2,660]

We got a really good lesson from WCE about how to win at a relatively narrow (compared to the MCG) ground like Etihad. The trick is:

* To get our forwards one-on-one as much as possible, by attacking fast & direct through the corridor.

* To slow the opposition down as much as possible by closing down the corridor at all costs.

We won't beat an Etihad side by going tall and slow, or by attacking slowly & patiently around the boundary line. We have to won the corridor. Last season Saints did a great job of closing it down.

The Dogs had a great variation of the "high bomb to the square" when their attack was slowed down. They had only one or two tall forwards (Boyd or Redpath, I think), but bombed it with enough hang time that it allowed their 4 small forwards plus a few mids to get to the fall of the ball. So when the ball came off the hands of the pack, as it will at least 9 times out of 10 for the high bomb, either a small forward would pounce, or the defenders were hopelessly crowded and couldn't move it out. In other words, their intention in bombing it wasn't to win the ball in the air, but to win the ball on the ground.

[old55 21,446]

3 minutes ago, Akum said:

The Dogs had a great variation of the "high bomb to the square" when their attack was slowed down. They had only one or two tall forwards (Boyd or Redpath, I think), but bombed it with enough hang time that it allowed their 4 small forwards plus a few mids to get to the fall of the ball. So when the ball came off the hands of the pack, as it will at least 9 times out of 10 for the high bomb, either a small forward would pounce, or the defenders were hopelessly crowded and couldn't move it out. In other words, their intention in bombing it wasn't to win the ball in the air, but to win the ball on the ground.

That's an interesting observation and idea - like how hang time is the key to punting in American Football.

[bandicoot 1,395]

2 hours ago, Pates said:

Saints are ahead of us IMO and at Etihad where we play so poorly and they play so well this is one of the biggest challenges we could hope for short of facing the Dogs at this ground or Cats in Geelong. 

This may sound like a cop out but I know we have the team to do it, particularly if we get back Kent and/or Garlett, but there is definitely something about the saints that is just gnawing in the back of our minds. 

Bookies have us ahead, I have no idea why. But if we tidy up our stupid errors from Perth and make good use of our forward entries, it's there for us. I really hope the saints players come in with a smug "relax we've got this" mentality, I feel like it's that mentality that's cost us against them so many times. 

The bookies don't make the market. The market is determined by the punters. The odds reflect that we are favoured to win by the betting public 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,351]

I have to keep reminding myself that it won't be the end of the world if we lose by under 4 goals.

Saints have a horror round 2 matchup vs West Coast at Domain while we play Carlton at the G, and if we play our absolute best footy we should account for them. We should then end round 2 higher on the ladder than St Kilda.

(if we lose our first 2 games we're in deep shizen)

Edited March 14, 2017 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Ethan Tremblay 28,472]

26 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I have to keep reminding myself that it won't be the end of the world if we lose by under 4 goals.

Saints have a horror round 2 matchup vs West Coast at Domain while we play Carlton at the G, and if we play our absolute best footy we should account for them. We should then end round 2 higher on the ladder than St Kilda.

(if we lose our first 2 games we're in deep shizen)

If we lose our first two we may as well give up. 

[Maldonboy38 5,980]

Half-forward turnovers will win or lose the game for us. It showed in the JLT game versus WCE. We butchered the ball going into half forward, and their defense spread too quickly for us after the turnover, leading to being often outnumbered through the middle of the ground, and into their forward 50. In 2016, the Saints beat us this exact way, twice.

To use a tennis term - keep the unforced error count low (especially through the middle and into half forward) and we have the personnel and gameplan to beat them. If we do repeat turnovers, the Saints will smash us on the counter attack. 

Very difficult game to pick, but with Brayshaw, Oliver, Viney and Tyson all fit and firing = the Dees by 8 points. 

[PaulRB 5,985]

Demons in a canter. Saints ruck and midfield wont hold intensity required for 4 quarters, we'll blow them away in a 10 min burst.

Win by 4-6 goals.

[Demonland 65,983]

I've added a poll at the top of the page.

[McQueen 17,864]

5 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I know it is a bit early in the season to say it is an 8pt game. 

If, as most people think, the saints are the team we are fighting with to get a finals spot (somewhere in the 8) then both our games vs StK are 8pt games. 

So for mine, this is a 'must win' game on our road to finals, this year. 

Very true.

Not to mention the positive mental impact a win at Etihad against the Saints will have on the group. I hope the leaders are really priming the team up for this game.... Saints have had the wood over us so there might be a little more complacency on their behalf. Let's hope so. 

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,099]

36 minutes ago, Demonland said:

I've added a poll at the top of the page.

What's the 2nd hoodoo? Beat Saints is obviously one. Many seem to have forgotten we beat GWS at Etihad in 2015 Rd 23..... or is there another I'm missing??

[ArtificialWisdom 3,897]

36 minutes ago, Demonland said:

I've added a poll at the top of the page.

"No way" is a bit strong. But I suppose thats the closest to my opinion 

.

[Demonland 65,983]

14 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

"No way" is a bit strong. But I suppose thats the closest to my opinion 

.

I was trying to be funny. Think of it as a simple yes and no and you can elaborate in the thread.

I just had to get rid of the poll of whether Jack Watts was going to play in the last JLT game.

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

6 minutes ago, Demonland said:

I was trying to be funny. Think of it as a simple yes and no and you can elaborate in the thread.

I just had to get rid of the poll of whether Jack Watts was going to play in the last JLT game.

Should've started a poll to see who wanted to get rid of the Jack Watts poll.

[Robot Devil 1,895]

8 hours ago, Unleash Hell said:

Regardless of the criticism on here  of Oscar. He is generally a reliable kick.

Well s lot better then his brother anyway 

I'm gonna stick with the "Russian Roulette" metaphor for Col or Oscar kicking in.

5 times out of 6 everything will be hunky dory but when they pull the trigger at the wrong moment you end up with your head in your lap.

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,351]

We haven't beaten St Kilda at Etihad since round 22 2002. Surely this would have to be the biggest hoodoo going around at the moment in the AFL..

The last time we tasted success against the Saints on that Saturday night to put us in the finals at the then known Colonial Stadium:

Steven Armstrong and Shane Woewodin were among our best

Johnny Cash was still kicking around.

Camera phones were only starting to become a feature

The Concorde flights were still in commission

 

[Damo 3,012]

I think we should alert the umpires around the 20 minute mark of the 1st qtr that MCCartin took a heavy knock and should be tested for concussion.

I dont think he would pass a concussion test whether he got bumped or not.

[Lucifers Hero 37,232]

We can beat them at Etihad!

Rewind June 14, 2015.  While I dread recalling that game, we had it won with 41 seconds to go!  Then a comedy of errors from Gawn, Viney, Cross and Toumpas allowed Montagna to kick a goal.  Dumb, Dumb football!

Our team has improved out of sight since then, theirs much less so.  We can do this.  We will do this