Melbourne 2017 ladder prediction

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

Ok keen to get everyone's thoughts on where we will finish and why ( could analyse the rest but let's focus on the mighty dees) at the end of home and away 

for me it's 5th spot , with around 15 - 16 wins 

if we maintain consistency and don't drop those silly games where we are absolute favourites, then looking at our draw ...which is more favourable than last year btw ....this is entirely conceivable. I'm bullish about our chances this year (for the first time in a very long time)

Jordan Lewis factor will be massive in those Carlton Essendon and north Melbourne type games when we're needing a dirty win where in the past we would drop the seemingly unloseable 

go dees! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 3, 2017 by Delusional demon 82

[Cheesy D. Pun 1,765]

13 wins. Not sure where that has us but I'd be happy enough with a three win improvement.

[whatwhat say what 22,747]

8-15 wins, somewhere btw 5-15 on the ladder.

i think we're heading for another up-and-down season in what should be a super-even year for a host of teams who might make finals depending upon injuries and form.

Edited March 3, 2017 by DemonAndrew

[Ethan Tremblay 30,856]

Have a feeling we'll have a strong start to the season then slow down. I predict somewhere between 6th (which I think is quite optimistic) and 11th. 

Edited March 3, 2017 by Ethan Tremblay

[McQueen 17,864]

7th with 14 wins and 127.80%.

The weeks rest was the only factor the Dogs were able to win the flag, giving them the ability to regain several of their guns. It is such a huge variable now for any team in the top 8 to manage their players heading into a final series - final round dead-rubbers aside.

I think this will be crucial for a young team like ours, to get a spell before playing finals footy - it'll definitely provide a boost.

[CBDees 3,167]

I am happy to go with fifth also. I am sure that our team will not get rolled by Carlton this year and be committed to not losing to the Saints or Kangas!

[jumbo returns 6,741]

3rd

[Wells 11 5,399]

I feel a need to be realistic here. Lets look at the top teams. Hawthorn, Swans, Dogs, West coast, Geelong, Adelaide, Giants. Something massive would have to happen to get those guys out of the top 7 positions. Huge Home ground advantage for 5 of them. Even the teams in so called decline ( Geelong, Hawthorn) have topped up with free agency....and I cant see them falling very far,  if at all. But lets say one or even TWO of them has an unexpected crash somehow. I cant imagine that happening but its possible. 

So, if we say optimistically that that is the top 5 - 7 ( that I doubt we will be breaking into)  then its a bun fight between St Kilda, Melb, Collingwood, Richmond, North, Power and (I hate to say it) Essendon for the last 1 -3 positions. Stkilda will be expecting to get there no doubt, Power would be expecting that too, Collingwood always expects and is a always a possibility. Essendon with so many guns back etc cant be discounted. North and Richmond less likely but they wouldn't be considering themselves out of it either. 

I can see a crazily close  season with teams regularly knocking off teams above them. If plenty goes right and we win the close ones Im gonna say 7th. If not 10th. 

[Ted Lasso 19,513]

8th 

[DEMON DAVID 12]

With the influx of quality players this year and a Coach who to me appears to be a lot closer to the Players I believe that the tight games lost last year will be won and the wasted games of last year will be an expectation... My answer is around 5th position.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

7th.

We'll be much better than last season, and more consistently better. Some other teams should slide a little too.

 

[Little Goffy 14,530]

3rd.

1. Sydney. Sigh.
2. GWS. Sigh.
3. Melbourne
4. Geelong
5. Bulldogs
6. Hawthorn
7. Collingwood
8. Port Adelaide

You'll note that I've set it up so that Melbourne has to play GWS in Sydney, which will be a tough ask, but then the next week we'll play Collingwood in a home semi-final, who will be royally puffed up thinking that beating a decrepit, falling-apart Hawthorn without most of it's top players means that Collingwood are their successor.

This fills a number of desirable criteria - Dunny gets to win a final, Buckley stays at Collingwood for another five years, ensuring they never win a premiership again. Melbourne gets to eliminate and humiliate Collingwood on our way to a prelim, and then onward to vanquish GWS in the return match Grand Final. I've got it all worked out.

Edited March 4, 2017 by Little Goffy
added full top 8

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

I'll have a go at a full ladder while I'm feeling optimistic and before we get 100 injuries.

 

1) GWS

2) Sydney

3) Western Bulldogs

4) West Coast

5) Melbourne

6) Adelaide

7) St Kilda

8) Hawthorn

9) Geelong

10) Fremantle

11) Gold Coast

12) Essendon

13) Collingwood

14) North Melbourne

15) Brisbane

16) Port Adelaide

17) Richmond

18) Carlton

[P-man 13,366]

5 minutes ago, Wells 11 said:

I feel a need to be realistic here. Lets look at the top teams. Hawthorn, Swans, Dogs, West coast, Geelong, Adelaide, Giants. Something massive would have to happen to get those guys out of the top 7 positions. Huge Home ground advantage for 5 of them. Even the teams in so called decline ( Geelong, Hawthorn) have topped up with free agency....and I cant see them falling very far,  if at all. But lets say one or even TWO of them has an unexpected crash somehow. I cant imagine that happening but its possible. 

So, if we say optimistically that that is the top 5 - 7 ( that I doubt we will be breaking into)  then its a bun fight between St Kilda, Melb, Collingwood, Richmond, North, Power and (I hate to say it) Essendon for the last 1 -3 positions. Stkilda will be expecting to get there no doubt, Power would be expecting that too, Collingwood always expects and is a always a possibility. Essendon with so many guns back etc cant be discounted. North and Richmond less likely but they wouldn't be considering themselves out of it either. 

I can see a crazily close  season with teams regularly knocking off teams above them. If plenty goes right and we win the close ones Im gonna say 7th. If not 10th. 

Good post. We definitely have a big task ahead pushing into the 8 this season.

I don't think it takes a wild imagination to see the Hawks dropping out. They should still be up there but  I can see them dropping down as far as 11th. Yes they've topped up with Mitchell, O'Meara and Vickery but in real terms they have picked up the Swans 4th or 5th best mid who was a very good player in his own right if not one sided and rarely if ever tested with a hard tag, an X factor player albeit an unknown quantity in terms of two years off the field through injury, and Vickery. Mitchell and Lewis will leave a big hole in playing and leadership terms. The midfield drops away significantly after those two.

Adelaide are also an interesting one. The most potent forwardline in the league but they did have that dream run with injuries in 2016, only using 25 players all year or something ridiculous. Again they should be up there but the midfield remains a little suspect on paper. A few more injuries could see them tumble.

Competition for those last two or three spots in the 8 will likely be intense all year.

 

[Wells 11 5,399]

2 minutes ago, P-man said:

Good post. We definitely have a big task ahead pushing into the 8 this season.

I don't think it takes a wild imagination to see the Hawks dropping out. They should still be up there but  I can see them dropping down as far as 11th. Yes they've topped up with Mitchell, O'Meara and Vickery but in real terms they have picked up the Swans 4th or 5th best mid who was a very good player in his own right if not one sided and rarely if ever tested with a hard tag, an X factor player albeit an unknown quantity in terms of two years off the field through injury, and Vickery. Mitchell and Lewis will leave a big hole in playing and leadership terms. The midfield drops away significantly after those two.

Adelaide are also an interesting one. The most potent forwardline in the league but they did have that dream run with injuries in 2016, only using 25 players all year or something ridiculous. Again they should be up there but the midfield remains a little suspect on paper. A few more injuries could see them tumble.

Competition for those last two or three spots in the 8 will likely be intense all year.

 

Hope you're right re the hawks....Im more than sick of them to be honest. 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

47 minutes ago, Wells 11 said:

I feel a need to be realistic here. Lets look at the top teams. Hawthorn, Swans, Dogs, West coast, Geelong, Adelaide, Giants. Something massive would have to happen to get those guys out of the top 7 positions. Huge Home ground advantage for 5 of them. Even the teams in so called decline ( Geelong, Hawthorn) have topped up with free agency....and I cant see them falling very far,  if at all. But lets say one or even TWO of them has an unexpected crash somehow. I cant imagine that happening but its possible. 

So, if we say optimistically that that is the top 5 - 7 ( that I doubt we will be breaking into)  then its a bun fight between St Kilda, Melb, Collingwood, Richmond, North, Power and (I hate to say it) Essendon for the last 1 -3 positions. Stkilda will be expecting to get there no doubt, Power would be expecting that too, Collingwood always expects and is a always a possibility. Essendon with so many guns back etc cant be discounted. North and Richmond less likely but they wouldn't be considering themselves out of it either. 

I can see a crazily close  season with teams regularly knocking off teams above them. If plenty goes right and we win the close ones Im gonna say 7th. If not 10th. 

This will be the most even season in living memory.

Teams are going to me making and missing the top eight on the back of a handful of close results either way. As a result, there will be a lot of teams that miss out who are worthy of being top eight teams while others will be seen as lucky to make the top eight.

[Willmoy1947 4,085]

We win the first three, albeit fairly convincingly and we are well on the way to top four. Over the moon with that, and from there on it will be momentum with a lid on it, sorry Old Dee...

[Sir Why You Little 37,034]

If Goodwin is good at his job and has learnt what to do whilst watching and listening to Roosy we shall make the 8. 

If the soft underbelly still lurks within the walls of the club we won't. 

Only match days will show the answer. 

We must win early games to build real confidence. Crush any team in the last quarter

[Diamond_Jim 12,578]

If you assume North is outside the eight we have 13 games against teams outside the top 7 of 2016.

Win all 13... which is pretty well what the Dogs did last year and you are in the 8.

We should be able to do this but history says otherwise

Our first 5 games are crucial. Lose 3 and season is almost over.

So ..... in short ask me again after 5 rounds

It is far too painful being optimistic about the MFC

[Little Goffy 14,530]

1 hour ago, P-man said:

Good post. We definitely have a big task ahead pushing into the 8 this season.

I don't think it takes a wild imagination to see the Hawks dropping out. They should still be up there but  I can see them dropping down as far as 11th. Yes they've topped up with Mitchell, O'Meara and Vickery but in real terms they have picked up the Swans 4th or 5th best mid who was a very good player in his own right if not one sided and rarely if ever tested with a hard tag, an X factor player albeit an unknown quantity in terms of two years off the field through injury, and Vickery. Mitchell and Lewis will leave a big hole in playing and leadership terms. The midfield drops away significantly after those two.

Adelaide are also an interesting one. The most potent forwardline in the league but they did have that dream run with injuries in 2016, only using 25 players all year or something ridiculous. Again they should be up there but the midfield remains a little suspect on paper. A few more injuries could see them tumble.

Competition for those last two or three spots in the 8 will likely be intense all year.

 

You're post just gave me an epiphany! (this doesn't mean we're dating, ok?)

Hawthorn won five games by less than a goal in 2016. They've just lost two of their best leaders, both have been vice-captains and captain/acting captain. Both are proven in big games and tight finishes, and both guide their teammates and bring them into the game with their play.

To add a little data to that - Mitchell was their top posession-winner in all five. Lewis was in the top three for three of them. They are also the 1-2 placing for disposals, clearances, and contested possessions.

A case can be made that if Hawthorn had had 'just a couple of really good young midfielders' in their team instead of Mitchell and Lewis in 2016, they might not even have made the finals.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

GWS

Sydney

Western Bulldogs

Adelaide

Geelong

Melbourne

St. Kilda

West Coast

Hawks to finish 9th.

 

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

3 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

If you assume North is outside the eight we have 13 games against teams outside the top 7 of 2016.

Win all 13... which is pretty well what the Dogs did last year and you are in the 8.

We should be able to do this but history says otherwise

Our first 5 games are crucial. Lose 3 and season is almost over.

So ..... in short ask me again after 5 rounds

It is far too painful being optimistic about the MFC

Whilst Goodwin says our 'fearless' brand of football is intended to stack up in finals, ironically, I think it will also ensure that we regularly win the previously 'winnable' home and away games against lesser sides that we have traditionally lost.

 

[praha 11,240]

We can fall anywhere between 12th and 4th. League is super tight and competitive and NO team is guaranteed finals spot. Little room for error. 

Gonna be a great season broadly even if Melbourne doesn't make it. Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn will be seriously challenged. GWS clear favourites. Melbourne, Saints, Dogs, Power, Tigers, Crows, Bombers all fighting for a spot. Aforementioned giants trying to stay relevant. Dockers are a smokey. Eagles. Suns. North. 

Hardest year to predict yet. NOTHING is certain.

Can't wait 

[John Crow Batty 8,863]

34 minutes ago, praha said:

We can fall anywhere between 12th and 4th. League is super tight and competitive and NO team is guaranteed finals spot. Little room for error. 

 

That says it all. Eradication of the soft underbelly will see us in the eight. Repeat efforts like against Essendon, Carlton and St Kilda could see us worse off. 

[Northern Summer 292]

My ladder:

(1) GWS 

(2) Sydney

(3) Geelong

(4) Western Bulldogs

(5) Adelaide

(6) Melbourne

(7) St Kilda

(8) West Coast

(9) Hawthorn

(10) Fremantle

(11) Gold Coast

(12) Collingwood

(13) Essendon

(14) Port Adelaide

(15) Brisbane

(16) Richmond

(17) North Melbourne

(18) Carlton