MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 21

[rjay 23,925]

On 10 August 2016 at 7:59 AM, hells bells said:

IF

We beat Port - 50:50

Hawks beat North - likely

Swans beat Saints - likely

We are the only team with a chance of taking North's position in the 8.

i believe North's percentage will take a hammering against Adelaide and GWS.

i believe it will come down to the our last game v Geelong.  

We are currently paying $101 to make the 8.  I may have had a little go at it.

Go Dees.

 

Would be interesting if our bid for a final 8 place comes down to a game at Geelong again. 

A bit like '87 but this time we play it out...

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,462]

3 minutes ago, nutbean said:

This intrigued me. I understand that Port will be fired up after last week and we may have some let down after our massive win - but really ????

I don't gamble so it doesn't impact me but really ?

Maybe Melbourne supporters are still watching the replay and haven't moved on. Conversely, Port fans have been quick to move on and have already placed their bets for this coming week.

[Demons11 6,404]

The Weed looks like he won't come up this weekend with a corked quad 

[Demon Jack 6,325]

7 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

The Weed looks like he won't come up this weekend with a corked quad 

Probably not the worst result if he misses. Although I desperately want to see Hogan and Weideman together in the same forward line, I think Pederson deserves another chance after his solid game last week. 

[SPC 2,828]

I like the idea of giving him a taste, then getting him ready for next week v the Blues if he is a bit sore.. Gee we manage players well these days.. Most players that come into the senior side now take their chance..

Roosy has seen what Weed can do, so Hogan will play with Pederson this week. Pederson is so far ahead of Dawes for that final depth spot on the list.

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

30 minutes ago, nutbean said:

This intrigued me. I understand that Port will be fired up after last week and we may have some let down after our massive win - but really ????

I don't gamble so it doesn't impact me but really ?

We are going for 3 in a row which is our next "bridge too far". We are just as likely to capitulate to a soft loss as to blow them off the park. Especially against Port who seem to be one of our "soft loss" BFFs.

On paper we should beat them but the game is being played in Adelaide and not at the Spicers factory.

[DubDee 20,748]

I think we might lose this one.  Port are rightly favourites being at home and having beaten us regularly.

both teams and up and down and I think Port will be up and we'll be down.  hope I'm wrong as Im flying over tomorrow

prove me wrong Dees!

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

14 minutes ago, SPC said:

I like the idea of giving him a taste, then getting him ready for next week v the Blues if he is a bit sore.. Gee we manage players well these days.. Most players that come into the senior side now take their chance..

Roosy has seen what Weed can do, so Hogan will play with Pederson this week. Pederson is so far ahead of Dawes for that final depth spot on the list.

That's a myth

[DemonLad5 1,640]

B: Jetta, O.Mac, Frost

HB: Vince, T.Mac, Hunt

C: Stretch, Tyson, Bugg

HF: Petracca, Hogan, Kent

FF: Garlett, Pederson, Watts

FOLL: Gawn, Jones, Viney

INT: Oliver, Harmes, Vandenberg, Brayshaw

 

IN - Hogan

OUT - Weideman (corky)

[SPC 2,828]

4 minutes ago, Devil is in the Detail said:

That's a myth

No, Dawes still being a valued member of our forward line is a myth.. The role of the pure 'decoy' forward is done.. 

[Wiseblood 24,636]

1 hour ago, Demons11 said:

The Weed looks like he won't come up this weekend with a corked quad 

Yep, sounds like he will miss this week.  With Hogan returning you could see that being the only change, and I actually like having Pedersen in our forward line.  Gave us a real contest last week, and when he couldn't win it he was at least bringing the ball to ground for the mosquito fleet to pounce on it.

[ManDee 7,089]

Out:- Weed (inj)  Pedo 

In :- Hoges and HULETT

[DubDee 20,748]

Random stats for the week - wasn't sure where to post this:

• We are 4th overall for average contested possessions (150) this year in the AFL - behind Sydney, Crows and GWS
• 3rd overall for clearances behind Sydney and GWS
• 5th overall for average tackles
• No 1 for average hit outs (Obvs)

Great efforts by the coaches and players.  What a turnaround its been since 2013

[Willmoy1947 3,790]

20 hours ago, Nasher said:

Next game? I'm not done with the last one yet.

Yep gonna take something special this week to put a bigger smile on my face. PM resignation, PA demolition or PO Essendon 12 month suspension 2017. Or all three.

[Nasher 33,068]

4 hours ago, Demon Jack said:

Probably not the worst result if he misses. Although I desperately want to see Hogan and Weideman together in the same forward line, I think Pederson deserves another chance after his solid game last week. 

Not the worst result from a "don't want to be mean to poor Pedersen" perspective, but pretty sucky from any other perspective I can see. The Weid looked the goods, and I'd have liked to see him get the chance to really consolidate. 

Big bummer for me.

[Ethan Tremblay 28,427]

30 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Random stats for the week - wasn't sure where to post this:

• We are 4th overall for average contested possessions (150) this year in the AFL - behind Sydney, Crows and GWS
• 3rd overall for clearances behind Sydney and GWS
• 5th overall for average tackles
• No 1 for average hit outs (Obvs)

Great efforts by the coaches and players.  What a turnaround its been since 2013

Are we coming last or towards the bottom in any crucial stats? I wouldn't know where to look this up otherwise I would.

Edited August 11, 2016 by Ethan Tremblay

[DubDee 20,748]

2 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Are we coming last or towards the bottom in any crucial stats? I wouldn't know where to look this up otherwise I would.

5th for Clangers and 11th for dispoal effeciency.  probably not too much of a surprise there

on the positive side we are 3rd for goal kicking accuracy

im just on the AFL website, not bad but not great either

 

[Rossmillan 481]

Surely the Weeds corky isn't that bad and this is a managed way of dropping him for Hogan, whilst saving him from being "dropped", since he can't run out a full game at AFL level.  Whilst we are an outside chance, we must play the best fittest side available until the 8 is no longer possible.

Will be going to this one and look forward to seeing big Maxy dominate this game!!!

 

[samcantstandya 926]

4 hours ago, SPC said:

No, Dawes still being a valued member of our forward line is a myth.. The role of the pure 'decoy' forward is done.. 

He is an exceptional decoy forward in fact he is so good u would swear he was a defender.

[binman 38,447]

10 minutes ago, Rossmillan said:

Surely the Weeds corky isn't that bad and this is a managed way of dropping him for Hogan, whilst saving him from being "dropped", since he can't run out a full game at AFL level.  Whilst we are an outside chance, we must play the best fittest side available until the 8 is no longer possible.

Will be going to this one and look forward to seeing big Maxy dominate this game!!!

 

Yep, that's my read too

[Binmans PA 26,225]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

5th for Clangers and 11th for dispoal effeciency. probably not too much of a surprise there

on the positive side we are 3rd for goal kicking accuracy

im just on the AFL website, not bad but not great either

 

For mine, this shows how much improvement is left in this group once they've played a bit more footy.

57 minutes ago, binman said:

Yep, that's my read too

Mine too. Particularly as that corky happened in the third and he was still limping around after the game, but it didn't stop him getting involved in the latter half of the second half.

[daisycutter 28,581]

ist for being robbed by umpires

[Ted Lasso 16,823]

Our mini elimination final, this is as close to a knockout final as we've played in for a while, if we win this i suspect we'd probably beat the Blues and go into a Cats game that we won last year on the back of 4 in a row and real momentum. 

i can't see North winning again this year, and i think the Swans will beat the Saints which means the Saints have to make up a big % gap on North to play finals, where our gap with them is far more manageable over 3 games.

[daisycutter 28,581]

12 minutes ago, Abe said:

Our mini elimination final, this is as close to a knockout final as we've played in for a while, if we win this i suspect we'd probably beat the Blues and go into a Cats game that we won last year on the back of 4 in a row and real momentum. 

i can't see North winning again this year, and i think the Swans will beat the Saints which means the Saints have to make up a big % gap on North to play finals, where our gap with them is far more manageable over 3 games.

i used the afl ladder predictor

there are a limited number of points margins you can chose but the following combo gave us the edge by 0.2%

norf lose by 30,30,12     mfc win by 30,30,12     (-72 for them, +72 for us giving a net of 144 points)   so it's a fair stretch at an average +/- 24 points per game

[Copuchas 756]

22 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

i used the afl ladder predictor

there are a limited number of points margins you can chose but the following combo gave us the edge by 0.2%

norf lose by 30,30,12     mfc win by 30,30,12     (-72 for them, +72 for us giving a net of 144 points)   so it's a fair stretch at an average +/- 24 points per game

I think you'll find the net points for / points against difference between us and Norf currently is 138 points ie 3 x 23 average winning margin for the Dees and 3 x 23 average losing margin for Norf would see a dead heat (how is that resolved I wonder?).  Challenging for sure but not beyond the realm by any stretch, particularly a Norf without Ben Brown.