Best 22 for Round 1, 2017

[In Harmes Way 7,771]

As long as we have learnt from last year that bringing in under cooked talent (Brayshaw, Essendon) is still under cooked. Long season, better off with a fit 22 where there's any doubt. I'd put Kent into this category, hopefully not Garlett...

[Gator 17,335]

45 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

The question is how much Spencer should ruck. If Gawn can still ruck 70% then that's almost ideal as he can still run around in the ruck and be in the game and is only forward for about 20% -  really just a short change up, maybe when Hogan is either off or on the ball so the 2 don't get in the way. 

That would mean Spencer rucks 30% and probably plays forward for no more than 50% of the game. Can he grab a mark or a free and kick 1 or 2 goals and not get in the way deep? Will he chase effectively and efficiently or just give away free kicks. I kind of want to find out. The Swans and Hawks are 2 teams that play 2 rucks most of the time including some pretty ordinary forwards (think Ceglar/McEvoy etc) and they manage to just get their rucks out of the way up forward. I'd love to learn how they get their ruckman just to sit on a forward flank whilst the ball gets directed to the star forward.

The other thing playing Spencer does is allow Watts to stay forward, maybe with a little change up on the wing. The ruck was good to get him involved in games last year but it really isn't his go and if he's down on intensity and physicality will it really help him? Without the 3rd man up even against Josh Bruce he'll be in trouble in the ruck.

I'd laugh at the idea of picking Spencer even a month ago but he's fit, he's training better than he ever has, he gives his best, he's physical. It goes against everything I think about round 1 which is to pick a fit running side, but I just think Spencer is the fit running player compared to Weeds.

Yeah, I can't come at it.

Spencer is just not a good enough footballer for me. 

I'll be disappointed if he's named, but I'm virtually certain he won't be. 

[Vogon Poetry 2,095]

3 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I'll be disappointed if he's named, but I'm virtually certain he won't be. 

You were spot on about Jetta Pro, I had no inkling but you picked it.  Great get.

I'll trust you on Spencer.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,176]

On 2/19/2017 at 10:19 AM, big_red_fire_engine said:

Adjusting this based on yesterday's JLT and assumption all are fit bar Kent (my guess) for round 1 at Etihad.

B: Jetta O-Mac J Smith
HB: Hunt T-Mac Hibberd
C: Lewis Tyson Jones
HF:  Petracca Hogan Vince
F: Garlett Watts Pederson
Ru: Gawn Salem Viney
Int: Oliver Brayshaw Stretch Melksham
Emerg from: Vanders Bugg Weid

Adjusted again based on yesterdays JLT and assumption that Kent, Garlett, Tyson, Smith, Jetta, Hibberd play Casey next week.

B: Melksham O-Mac J Smith
HB: Hunt T-Mac Hibberd
C: Lewis Oliver Jones
HF:  Petracca Hogan Vince
F: Garlett Watts Spencer
Ru: Gawn Salem Viney
Int: Tyson Brayshaw Stretch Bugg
Emerg from: Kent Jetta Weideman

Edited March 10, 2017 by big_red_fire_engine

[spirit of norm smith 16,451]

jetta  t.mcd  j.smith

hibberd  o.mcd  salem

hunt  viney  melksham

harmes  weideman  petracca

garlett  hogan  watts

gawn  lewis  n.Jones

oliver  brayshaw  tyson  stretch

emerg. anb  vince  spencer

injured/unavailable: kent  wagner  jkh  vandenberg

[olisik 4,060]

Montagna might be out

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

My round 1 team consideration

I am a little worried how easily we were exposed against the Egirls this week. The Saint play a very similar style as the Egirls and at Ethiad which is a flat track like Subi JLT 3 could look like round 1. Less stoppages, more running and open play

My thoughts are we need to play small to match it with the Saints lineup. Some issues from the JLT for me are

Skill errors (stating the bleeding obvious here) but those bad turnovers led to easy Egirls goals because we couldn't lock the ball in to our F50 as we gave it away too easily. Our zone/press won't work effectively on these longer grounds with such poor turnovers (Etihad and Subi as prime examples) if we continue to turn the ball over like that, the good teams will run it out and score over the back on most occasions. I expect during the season the press will employed and if it's failing due to whatever reason we will change to a more man on man or put players back. I don't know I purely speculating here.

Forwards - It's been poor timing for some blokes to be injured or under controversy. Kent, Jay KH, Watts, Garlett even AVB to an extent. I personally think our small forwards are lacking a bit of class at the moment. Yes there is Petracca and Garlett, Kent, but all are prone to fade out in games (See JTL 3 - petracca was ineffective most of the game along with poor disposal and decision making at times under pressure)

We really lack some dimensions at the moment up forward IMO, so do we go small and play the extra mid to play through the middle (my personal preference, but they need to be quick).

I also think these guys can play but their form has been inconsistent for mine. Some not taking their chances for multiple games in the JLT. I'll pick on Weeds for this example - vs the Blues (needs to finish off the hard work and kick GOALS. - O Mac, Harmes, Neal Bullen, Weed 

The JLT - especially our 3rd game because it didn't gloss over easy mistakes highlighted for me some of our players (not just the young ones) lack that clean polish under pressure and while we still may make the 8, I don't think we are a serious threat this year. I hope I'm wrong here but under pressure not enough players were clean with hand or foot and some of the disposal errors were deplorable.

Standouts for me were - Jones, Oliver, Lewis, Hunt? (off the top of my head I am sure there were a couple more)

Some who I rate as best 22 that probably won't make the rd 1 squad but I expect to play a big part in 2017 - Hibberd, Frost, Wagner, JKH, Kent,

So in saying all that some of the issues will correct themselves - like disposal. As more games are played by the team as a whole I expect that to improve.

Ending my rant Rd 1 v the Saints I believe a small team will be the answer with a couple of underdone seasoned players

Jetta Garland O Mac

Hunt T Mac Vince

 Salem Viney Jones

Lewis Watts Kent

Garlett Hogan Petracca

Gawn Tyson Oliver

Melksham, Brayshaw Bugg Stretch 

Other possibilities I but probs won't play due to various reasons

Smith for O Mac

Frost for Garland

Hibberd for O Mac

Spencer as second ruck

Wager as a rebounder

Sorry I could go on and on but chose the best healthy and fit 22

 

 

 

[old55 23,570]

JLT observations pointing to selection and strategy

1. No one but Gawn and Spencer have contested the ruck. Did Watts ruck at all against WC?  Weigh this up against Goodwin clearly concerned about our lack of forward pressure.

2. No tag even when WC mids running rampant.  I'd expect us to at least try that structure if we intend to tag any Saints.

3. No Jetta even though he has been fit to play.

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

I hadn't been paying close attention re Jetta - very interesting

What we also don't know and can only guess - what strategies were employed in the JLT? Were we trying things - Eg - Spencer & Gawn. (who by the way I thought Spencer did ok in the ruck - He is limited around the ground though especially on the bigger or faster grounds that 2nd ruck really gets exposed), or will this be how we line up in rd 1.

I can't wait until Thursday week and then Saturday, it's going to be very interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Biffen 12,943]

FBJetta Tom Mc Hibberd

HBSalemFrost Lewis

C:Jones Vince Hunt

HF:Kent Watts Petracca

For:Garlett Hogan Stretch

Foll:Gawn Oliver Tyson

Inter:Weed,ANB,Brayshaw,Bugg.

Emerg:Smith,Trengove ,spencil.

I've gone with youth and pace,along with safe skills.So Garland,Spencer,Omac miss out .

Frost is a CHB.Membrey

To Mac on Bruce

That leaves Hibberd on Reiwoldt.

Vince on Jack Stevens I/c Bugg

Those 4 are the roles I would like to see played defensively,as in given no space,as in negated ,untrendy as it is.

The back line is better with Hibberd in it but if he is getting killed by Reiwoldt I would drop Watts back ,bring on Weed and rest Hibberd if Nicks looking dangerous.We are paying Hibberd as if he is an a grader so let's see it.

 Their talls are good. Max ,Watts,TomMac Frost and Hogan need to compete well.

Will be a close game

[Macca 16,967]

57 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

JLT observations pointing to selection and strategy

1. No one but Gawn and Spencer have contested the ruck. Did Watts ruck at all against WC?  Weigh this up against Goodwin clearly concerned about our lack of forward pressure.

2. No tag even when WC mids running rampant.  I'd expect us to at least try that structure if we intend to tag any Saints.

3. No Jetta even though he has been fit to play.

I didn't see Watts rucking and he didn't register a tap-out.  Spencer had 11 hit-outs and kicked 3 goals. 

I reckon Spencer will play in round 1 now ... Pedersen seems to be out of the mix and Watts was ignored (re ruck play) in the only practice game he played.

It all points to Spencer playing and if so, I hope it works.  I could think of a number of opponents where Spencer might be more suited but if Spencer does play, that might give us a pointer on how Goodwin wants to coach the team.

It should also be noted that both Watts & Pedersen are largely ineffective whilst rucking which means that Gawn generally shoulders 90% of the workload ... and that workload percentage carries a risk.

There will be other surprise selections or non-selections (Jetta?)  Not sure if Frost will be considered yet either where as I'd have him in if he's declared fit.

Goodwin is going to coach the team his way - whatever happened last season happened last season.  He will stamp his M.O on team selection and game style so we should (in some ways) expect the unexpected.

[DeeZee 7,393]

Spencer will play, ahead of Pedo and they are probably tossing up between Pencil and Weed at this stage, and if they could play both they probably would.

Joel Smith has been the best performed third tall and he adds another element with his manic tackling and high leap, which will help deny StKildas tall forwards.

Kent and Hibberd are 50/50 but if fully fit will play.

Garlett and Jetta will play.

Neal Bullen probably the unlucky one again 

Wagner won't play

Not sure about Bugg, seems to be an important part of the team as always brings 100% intensity, and seems to find a goal or two.

[Gator 17,335]

27 minutes ago, Macca said:

Spencer had 11 hit-outs and kicked 3 goals. 

I reckon Spencer will play in round 1 now ...

Spencer took 2 marks and had 7 disposals, which is in line with his 2 mark 8 disposal career average.  

He's not a 60 or 40 goal forward, so it's safe to assume he won't be kicking 3 very often or even again.  At best I see a goal a game (and I don't see that).

Is a couple of maks and a handful of possessions enough to be choosing Spencer in the team ?  Not for me.

It will be interesting to see our round 1 lineup.

[Macca 16,967]

2 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Spencer took 2 marks and had 7 disposals, which is in line with his 2 mark 8 disposal career average.  

He's not a 60 or 40 goal forward, so it's safe to assume he won't be kicking 3 very often or even again.  At best I see a goal a game (and I don't see that).

Is a couple of maks and a handful of possessions enough to be choosing Spencer in the team ?  Not for me.

It will be interesting to see our round 1 lineup.

I would have recruited a ruck/forward in the off-season.  But we have to deal with realities.  Goodwin probably sees playing Spencer as the lesser of 2 evils. 

• When Watts or Pedersen are rucking the opposition often win control of the ball ... if it's Spencer, that is less likely to happen.  Pedersen is not the future anyway although he's a handy back-up.
• Gawn gets more of a chop-out when Spencer plays and that can't be underplayed.  Workloads when over-done can lead to injury.  He could get through it all but he may not.  Any rucking at the top level that Spencer experiences can't do him any harm.
• Watts can still play in the team with Spencer playing so we still have a decent 3rd forward actually playing.  Not 'great' but decent.  Watts needs to at least bring his last year's form,
• Goodwin recognises that we don't have a decent no.2 forward yet so rotating 2 big bodies in the forward line (Gawn & Spencer) has become an option.

Where Weideman sits with the above in play is anyone's guess ... he may have to bide his time in the 2nds but Goodwin might be able to squeeze him in.

Right now, whatever outcome we can foresee isn't exactly ideal ... but again, Goodwin is going to do things his way and all we're doing is speculating on what his plans might be.

[Demon Jack 6,909]

I'm making the assumption that Kent and Hibberd will not be avaliable for round 1. If both are fit and ready to play, then Bugg and ANB can be cut from the team.

FB: Jetta TMac Melksham

HB: Hunt Frost Lewis

C: Salem Oliver Vince

HF: Petracca Hogan Watts

FF: Garlett Pederson ANB

R: Gawn Jones Viney

INT: Tyson Brayshaw Bugg Stretch

EMG: Spencer J.Smith Weideman

- As much as I think that OMac and Weid will be very important bookends over the next decade, I don't think either are quite ready yet. They'll benefit greatly with more experience in the VFL. Pederson and Frost are more experienced players and at the moment offer more than OMac and Weid.

- I'm not overally sold on Spencer playing as a second ruck/forward. Yes he kicked three majors against West Coast, but they were mostly 'right place, right time' type of goals as opposed to resulting from a contested grab against a key defender. He's not an overly accurate and reliable kick at goal either. 

- Jetta has to play. No question. He's easily our best 'one on one' defender and has taken plenty of important scalps over the last few years. Would definitely play him over a Melksham if need be. 

- Watts is in a similar boat to Jetta. He just has to play. No question. I'm disappointed that he hasn't quite reached the required standards over summer (although I think the media blew this out of proportion a bit), but he's incredibly creative along the half forward line and is easily our most reliable set shot.

- I'm desperately hoping that Garlett is fit for round 1. It was incredibly evident against the Eagles that we were missing a speedy crumber in the forward line.

Edited March 11, 2017 by Demon Jack

[DeeZee 7,393]

Frost is injured won't play

[Redleg 40,914]

17 hours ago, ProDee said:

Yeah, I can't come at it.

Spencer is just not a good enough footballer for me. 

I'll be disappointed if he's named, but I'm virtually certain he won't be. 

ES is not the ground to play him and Gawn. If it was at the G he would have a chance.

[rpfc 28,415]

Maybe against Longer or Hickey the coaching staff are happy to have Spencer 1st and Gawn more forward.

It's the kind of thing that would blow up in our faces...

Just can't see Spencer as a back up ruck, the days of a pure ruck as back up are over.

[whatwhat say what 22,749]

i still think jetta is best 22, regardless of lack of preseason. i feel much more comfortable about our defence when he's back there.

hoping that hibberd and garlett are fit for round 1, and ideally kent too. we have zero pace other than hunt, garlett and kent.

B: Jetta - T McDonald - Hibberd
HB: Hunt - O McDonald - Melksham
C: Salem - Jones - Vince
HF: Petracca - Hogan - Brayshaw
F: Watts - Weideman - Garlett
Foll: Gawn - Oliver - Viney
I/C: Lewis - Tyson - Stretch - Spencer
Emerg: ANB - Bugg - Harmes

weideman plays for mine as he assists with our structure, spencer has to play because playing two rucks seems to actually be working this preseason and we might as well try something different against the saints with hickey being the dominant big man of late when we've played them at etihad, watts gets a game because vandenberg is injured (and if it was a choice, i'd take hogan / weed / spencil over watts being in the side, as his lack of competitiveness is an indictment against him as a player).

we really need petracca, salem and brayshaw to develop, and develop quickly. probably add stretch to that clutch of players who are required to come on to replace the likes of vince, who has gone off the boil, as part of the midfield rotation. if brayshaw playing as a midfielder can't get it more than 10 times a game and turn it over 50% of the time, he's never going to make it.

[PaulRB 6,363]

I see the combined benefits of Spencer in and rucking 40%, forward 40% is that it give Maxy a ruck break when he can also damage up forward, and frees Watts from ruck duties where he was often ineffectual and playing out of position. 

Someone earlier said Spencer got his three goal because he was in right place right time... as of to discredit his value, but exactly that's what you want from a ruck resting forward. And "Betty" seems to have got his engine right such that he can run all day...

I suspect the Maxy- Spencer combo will be common this season, if Spencer can hold his present form.

[deelete my account 1,194]

The undersold aspect of the Spencer/Gawn thing, is that our forward line lacks a freakish athletic beast/resting ruck monster that can nullify an outnumbered contest and at least bring the ball to ground. Hogan for all of his potential, is going to be defeated more often than not if our disposal into the forward line is not advantageous to his abilities and goes to a pack with Hogan or Watts up against an 2 or 3 swarming defenders. 

Hogan, Pederson, Wiedemann & Watts just is not a physically imposing and 'awkward for the opposition' combination, yet. Having Gawn/Spencer rest down there throws in an element of unpredictability and second guessing.

14 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

Someone earlier said Spencer got his three goal because he was in right place right time... as of to discredit his value, but exactly that's what you want from a ruck resting forward. And "Betty" seems to have got his engine right such that he can run all day...

This is the whole basis of Josh Jenkins game, and he's been really effective.

Edited March 11, 2017 by DominatrixTyson

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Just now, DominatrixTyson said:

The undersold aspect of the Spencer/Gawn thing, is that our forward line lacks a freakish athletic beast/resting ruck monster that can nullify an outnumbered contest and at least bring the ball to ground. Hogan for all of his potential, is going to be defeated more often than not if our disposal into the forward line is not advantageous to his abilities and goes to a pack with Hogan or Watts up against an 2 or 3 swarming defenders. 

Hogan, Pederson, Wiedemann & Watts just is not a physically imposing and 'awkward for the opposition' combination, yet. Having Gawn/Spencer rest down there throws in an element of unpredictability and second guessing.

Hogan, Watts and Weideman can still bring the ball to ground.  The resting ruckman didn't really work in the way you mentioned above on the weekend - Spencer kicked three, but it wasn't because he clunked some pack marks, and I don't think I saw Max take one mark inside 50 on Thursday night either.

The idea is okay in theory, but I still think it takes some running and pressure power out of our forward line and we just can't afford to take it out of our side.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

15 hours ago, olisik said:

Montagna might be out

Can only hope so. He always bobs up against us

[armstrong35 262]

I'm not sold on Spencer playing but saints forwards just dominate us way to much especially when the ball is booted in..
Maybe when Spencer is rucking and if its a close game we can send Gawn down back to grab them high balls...

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

23 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

The question is how much Spencer should ruck. If Gawn can still ruck 70% then that's almost ideal as he can still run around in the ruck and be in the game and is only forward for about 20% -  really just a short change up, maybe when Hogan is either off or on the ball so the 2 don't get in the way. 

That would mean Spencer rucks 30% and probably plays forward for no more than 50% of the game. Can he grab a mark or a free and kick 1 or 2 goals and not get in the way deep? Will he chase effectively and efficiently or just give away free kicks. I kind of want to find out. The Swans and Hawks are 2 teams that play 2 rucks most of the time including some pretty ordinary forwards (think Ceglar/McEvoy etc) and they manage to just get their rucks out of the way up forward. I'd love to learn how they get their ruckman just to sit on a forward flank whilst the ball gets directed to the star forward.

The other thing playing Spencer does is allow Watts to stay forward, maybe with a little change up on the wing. The ruck was good to get him involved in games last year but it really isn't his go and if he's down on intensity and physicality will it really help him? Without the 3rd man up even against Josh Bruce he'll be in trouble in the ruck.

I'd laugh at the idea of picking Spencer even a month ago but he's fit, he's training better than he ever has, he gives his best, he's physical. It goes against everything I think about round 1 which is to pick a fit running side, but I just think Spencer is the fit running player compared to Weeds.

Spencil for Weids is a no brainer Dee. Weids is at least another pre season away. First lesson at Casey - learn to hold on to more gettable grabs son.