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Best 22 for Round 1, 2017



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2 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

Hogan, Watts and Weideman can still bring the ball to ground.  The resting ruckman didn't really work in the way you mentioned above on the weekend - Spencer kicked three, but it wasn't because he clunked some pack marks, and I don't think I saw Max take one mark inside 50 on Thursday night either.

The idea is okay in theory, but I still think it takes some running and pressure power out of our forward line and we just can't afford to take it out of our side.

Max was one of very few who hit a target coming i50 though WB. And that target was the Spencil. And it never hurts to show the opponent an effective different look from time to time i reckon. Also in the event that something ugly happens to you know who then we also have a reasonably in form back up to go full time during the season if needed rather than coming in from a somewhat sub standard Casey match practice/fitness level only.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Like many here I really can't see any sense in playing both Gawn and Spencer against the Saints on Etihad. The problem is that we have gone with this combination for all our practice matches. If we were to leave Spence out we would be going with a new second ruck and a different forward set up.

As Goodwin doesn't strike me as a leave it to chance sort of bloke I'm assuming that we will roll the dice and play both big guys. It is a bit like last year when the only people who didn't know that Frost wasn't a forward were the blokes who made the decision to play him there. 

Either way we are going to be left with a relatively unpracticed combination or one unsuited to the St.Kilda at Etihad. 

Edited by fndee
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Only way I can see Gawn+Spencil working is for Max to play 20 mins in ruck, 10 mins forward. And Spencil 20 mins bench, 10 mins ruck.

So 4 interchange per match for Spencil, all the rest for mids. Effectively 3 interchange vs 4 for other teams. Question then is Spencil so much more effective in his 10 mins per quarter than eg Pedo would be, to make it worth it. At least Pedo can be on the ground contesting when he's not in the ruck.

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18 minutes ago, fndee said:

Like many here I really can't see any sense in playing both Gawn and Spencer against the Saints on Etihad. The problem is that we have gone with this combination for all our practice matches. If we were to leave Spence out we would be going with a new second ruck and a different forward set up.

As Goodwin doesn't strike me as a leave it to chance sort of bloke I'm assuming that we will roll the dice and play both big guys. It is a bit like last year when the only people who didn't know that Frost wasn't a forward were the blokes who made the decision to play him there. 

Either way we are going to be left with a relatively unpracticed combination or one unsuited to the St.Kilda at Etihad. 

Which is a bit disapponting tbh. Surely one of the JLT matches could've been used to practice a similar ruck set up to last season. The fact Spencer played all three games points to him playing in Round 1. If he doesn't, you'd have to say it's been poor planning in terms of utilising the JLT.

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Spencer is messing with Big Max's mojo. Two games straight and Gawn hasn't been clunking them, which is an important aspect in getting the big fella up and going with confidence. It sounds silly, but we've seen it before with Jamar and Stef Martin - some cats need to be the full-time number-one ruck. And it's clear Max likes to set himself a challenge. Drifting forward and dragging the oppo ruck down there is where Gawn does his damage in front - ditto, covering on defence.

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Gawn is our biggest asset and hardest to replace. 

It makes perfect sense to go easy on him in preseason. Play Spencil with him. Test both out individually and on field together.

We had extra interchanges and players compared to regular season.  So it doesn't hurt to protect Gawn.

Will Spencer play R1? I don't think so.  But I honestly don't think playing two rucks in all the JLT has anything to do with regular season games given the different interchange conditions. 

Edited by deanox
Autocorrect
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Strange that Pederson has been left out of the mix.

He can play ruck, forward and chop out down back and is more mobile than Pencil.

Would be handy against the Saints

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38 minutes ago, DeeZee said:

Strange that Pederson has been left out of the mix.

He can play ruck, forward and chop out down back and is more mobile than Pencil.

Would be handy against the Saints

I'll 2nd that DZ. By no means a stand out must pick in 22 but surely his versatility and attack on the ball and opponent was worth one hit out in JLT? Certainly a more reliable/effective defender than Omac on the right match up.

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The problem we've had in the JLT so far is we've been too tall in the forward line, which is easily correctable. The competition is Weid vs Spencer. Spencer wins. Obviously he can chop out in the ruck and has shown he can impact on the scoreboard. Other than that all Spence has to do is compete and crash the packs

 

we desperately missed our smalls. We needed their forward pressure and their zippiness around the footy. I'm really starting to doubt Kents spot considering he hasn't played any JLT and also missed the intraclub. Garlett I'm a little more confident on, but he'll have to get some Casey games in 

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This may well affect the game:  http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-etihad-stadium-plans-quickfix-for-turf-after-adele-concert-20170312-guwcsj.html

Adele plays at Etihad just 6 days before our game there!  That surface is a problem at the best of times without being trampled on, heavy stage equipment in the middle and patches of turf replaced a few days earlier.

Adele also played at Subiaco 10 days before our last Thursday game.  As far as we know we had no major injuries.  But on Friday night Freo suffered injuries to Ballantyne and Sandilands on the freshly laid turf. 

I will be filthy if we come away from round 1 with Etihad turf related injuries.  I can still recall watching Flash go down there, years ago.  He was never the same player again.

The surface may affect selections by us not taking a player at risk of aggravating a recent leg/foot injury eg Hibberd, Kent, Gartlett, Jetta, Frost

Round 1 is a danger game in more ways than one! 

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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The area of the ground I am most concerned with us, is the key backs. I know Frost is to return but I think we lack real talent in that area.

Tom Mc is our best there but he has poor disposal issues, Oscar is not there yet and Frost can break lines but can be erratic.

Clearly if our mids get on top in games,  that will help the backs, but to me we look suspect there.

A Weitering type would be my priority next draft/trade period.  

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11 minutes ago, Redleg said:

The area of the ground I am most concerned with us, is the key backs.

Frost makes the McDonald brothers better, but going into the season this was always going to be our biggest weakness I agree.

We always seem to have trouble with the tall forwards and resting ruckmen.

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My biggest concern is still the midfield. which might sound surprising.  Potentially it's terrific, but unless some key components can take the next step then we won't be finals bound in 2017.

On the weekend the 3 highest rating players for West Coast were their mids in Gaff (145), Masten (125) and Mitchell (123).  Priddis and Shuey round out a very solid top 5 group of mids.  Melbourne's highest ranking mids were Oliver (123), Lewis (93) and Bugg (85).

Viney and Tyson need to take their games to a higher level and I'm not convinced they will in 2017.  Lewis and Jones can't afford to drop off (I don't think they will).  Salem needs to start stamping himself as a quality week-in week-out mid.  Stretch needs to elevate his game and Brayshaw needs to have more midfield minutes and not just be a 10-15 possession high half-forward.  Vince seems destined for a back-line role, which further robs the midfield; Bugg is little more than a run of the mill role player, and Petracca plays forward.

I'm as excited by our future prospects as the next supporter, but I have these nagging doubts whether 2017 will be the year all of these unknowns come together they way we'd like.  Oliver will become a genuine superstar and start making some serious inroads, but my concern is we're still short on the genuine midfield class necessary to play consistent finals-bound footy.

If the midfield pops it makes life so much easier for the back-line and forward-line.  A dominant midfeild will help cover the cracks we have down back.

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4 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

This may well affect the game:  http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-etihad-stadium-plans-quickfix-for-turf-after-adele-concert-20170312-guwcsj.html

Adele plays at Etihad just 6 days before our game there!  That surface is a problem at the best of times without being trampled on, heavy stage equipment in the middle and patches of turf replaced a few days earlier.

Adele also played at Subiaco 10 days before our last Thursday game.  As far as we know we had no major injuries.  But on Friday night Freo suffered injuries to Ballantyne and Sandilands on the freshly laid turf. 

I will be filthy if we come away from round 1 with Etihad turf related injuries.  I can still recall watching Flash go down there, years ago.  He was never the same player again.

The surface may affect selections by us not taking a player at risk of aggravating a recent leg/foot injury eg Hibberd, Kent, Gartlett, Jetta, Frost

Round 1 is a danger game in more ways than one! 

Apparently Adele has offered to step in for rd2 if we sustain any injuries against the saints. 

I think she would match up well on Levi casboult 

Edited by Delusional demon 82
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1 hour ago, ProDee said:

My biggest concern is still the midfield. which might sound surprising.  Potentially it's terrific, but unless some key components can take the next step then we won't be finals bound in 2017.

On the weekend the 3 highest rating players for West Coast were their mids in Gaff (145), Masten (125) and Mitchell (123).  Priddis and Shuey round out a very solid top 5 group of mids.  Melbourne's highest ranking mids were Oliver (123), Lewis (93) and Bugg (85).

 

I'm not sure what constitutes a midfield anymore.  Most teams seem to run about 16 players through there at various stages.  If the JLT is anything to go by then Hogan will be a part time midfielder (when Gawn goes forward)- certainly Hunt who should have been included in your group is as much a midfielder as a defender. Anyway I agree with your premise - but inexperience is our Achilles heel across all three lines (especially forward). 

I see four sides having superior midfields to ours at the moment.  Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide and GWS.  I think we are comparable with the Bulldogs, Saints and Geelong and superior to everyone else (even Hawthorn who I think will find it hard to transition from the old guard to the new guard).  

A side like Collingwood for example whose best six midfielders are probably pound for pound better than us at this stage,will suffer when you add the other 6-10 players who play anywhere from half forward to half back.

Our finals fortunes rest on how much we can improve our consistency compared to last year.  The gap is narrowing and I expect Jordan Lewis to be one of our best pick ups in the last 30 years.  Where as someone like Bernie might gather the ball 30 times a game, he will also has brain explosions.  Lewis uses the ball so well and brings that on field direction and leadership we so desperately need to support guys like Jones and Viney. 

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On 12 March 2017 at 1:22 PM, Fifty-5 said:

Nathan Vardy and Darcy Cameron have both looked handy Fwd-Ruck in the JLT and both were available to us.

Would Vardy have passed the medical?  Geelong gambled on him being right for the last five years and lost, West Coast were desperate to fill the gap with Nick Nat and Lycett on the injured list.  For extra insurance they got Petrie in case Vardy doesn't work out. 

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21 minutes ago, grazman said:

I'm not sure what constitutes a midfield anymore.  Most teams seem to run about 16 players through there at various stages.  If the JLT is anything to go by then Hogan will be a part time midfielder (when Gawn goes forward)- certainly Hunt who should have been included in your group is as much a midfielder as a defender. Anyway I agree with your premise - but inexperience is our Achilles heel across all three lines (especially forward). 

I see four sides having superior midfields to ours at the moment.  Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide and GWS.  I think we are comparable with the Bulldogs, Saints and Geelong and superior to everyone else (even Hawthorn who I think will find it hard to transition from the old guard to the new guard).  

A side like Collingwood for example whose best six midfielders are probably pound for pound better than us at this stage,will suffer when you add the other 6-10 players who play anywhere from half forward to half back.

Our finals fortunes rest on how much we can improve our consistency compared to last year.  The gap is narrowing and I expect Jordan Lewis to be one of our best pick ups in the last 30 years.  Where as someone like Bernie might gather the ball 30 times a game, he will also has brain explosions.  Lewis uses the ball so well and brings that on field direction and leadership we so desperately need to support guys like Jones and Viney. 

Hunt is more a defender than a mid.  He'll attack, but his first priority is to defend and stop his opponent.

While plenty of players (12-13) will have minutes on ball there are still a core group of 5-6 mids in any team who take the most centre bounces and are prevalent around the stoppages.  Until we can rely on a core group of 5-6 week-in week-out to win contested footy and clearances then I see us not providing the consistency required to play finals.  We increased our inside 50 count in 2016, but we need to increase it further this year.  

If Viney, Tyson, Oliver, Stretch, Salem, and Brayshaw can genuinely elevate their games in 2017 then I think we will.  I'm not convinced.    

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11 hours ago, Skuit said:

It's worth noting the minutes on ground between the midfield groups if player ratings vs. WC are to be discussed.

 

In the same circumstances I'd share the information if I was going to post about it.

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12 hours ago, Skuit said:

It's worth noting the minutes on ground between the midfield groups if player ratings vs. WC are to be discussed.

 

fwiw, we played 23 players to their 22 and we had 96 total interchanges to their 89.

 

oliver - 73% time on ground @ 77.4% disposal efficiency

lewis - 75% tog @ 79.3% de

tyson - 67% tog @ 70.8% de

jones - 80% tog @ 82.6% de

melksham - 77% tog @ 81.8% de

bugg - 73% tog @ 81.0% de

salem - 81% tog @ 83.3% de

viney - 71% tog @ 76.5% de

vince - 86% tog @ 62.5% de

stretch - 68% tog @ 73.3% de

brayshaw - 72% tog @ 80.0% de

(trengove - 0% tog @ 0% de)

vs:

mitchell - 86% tog @ 82.1% de

gaff - 84% tog @ 97.1% de (!!)

masten - 76% tog @ 85.7% de

yeo - 92% tog @ 78.6% de

wellingham - 82% tog @ 74.2% de

hutchings - 80% tog @ 64.0% de

priddis - 84% tog @ 70.4% de

shuey - 76% tog @ 90.0% de (!)

sheed - 68% tog @ 73.7% de

nelson - 85% tog @ 88.9% de

jetta - 79% tog @ 50.0% de

 

looks to me like we definitely rotated more players through the midfield, but their prime movers - particularly gaff and shuey - don't waste it.

Edited by DemonAndrew
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Omissions from JLT:

Weid was given 3 games to prove his readiness, which I believe he did not. We cannot afford to have Weid and Spencer in our forward line, as they both provide very little if they don't mark it. Spencer has looked better in that regard and also gives Gawn a great chop out.

Harmes struggled to have an impact in his 3 games, which means he will now have to fight back through the magoos. 

Trengove for the obvious reasons.

Garland again proved to be too costly by foot, and isn't much of an improvement on Oscar in the 1on1s.

---------------

FB: Jetta - McDonald - Melk

HB: Hibbo - Oscar - Hunt

C: Lewis - N.Jones - Stretch

HF: Trac - Hogan - Kent

FF: Garlett - Spencer - Watts

R: Gawn - Salem - Viney

I: Clarry - Brayshaw - Tyson - Bugg

E: Garland (if Jetta/Hibb doesn't get through the weekend) Harmes (if Kent/Tyson doesnt get through) Weid (because hes close to 22)

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43 minutes ago, GawnWithTheWind said:

Omissions from JLT:

Weid was given 3 games to prove his readiness, which I believe he did not. We cannot afford to have Weid and Spencer in our forward line, as they both provide very little if they don't mark it. Spencer has looked better in that regard and also gives Gawn a great chop out.

Harmes struggled to have an impact in his 3 games, which means he will now have to fight back through the magoos. 

Trengove for the obvious reasons.

Garland again proved to be too costly by foot, and isn't much of an improvement on Oscar in the 1on1s.

---------------

FB: Jetta - McDonald - Melk

HB: Hibbo - Oscar - Hunt

C: Lewis - N.Jones - Stretch

HF: Trac - Hogan - Kent

FF: Garlett - Spencer - Watts

R: Gawn - Salem - Viney

I: Clarry - Brayshaw - Tyson - Bugg

E: Garland (if Jetta/Hibb doesn't get through the weekend) Harmes (if Kent/Tyson doesnt get through) Weid (because hes close to 22)

Garland's disposal efficiency was 93% against WC and the highest in our team. I know it can be a misleading stat and he is generally one of our worst users, but this is fake news.

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