Leaderboard

Some interesting discussion about stoppages, which has been a theme since we were dominant here in 2018. A few interesting things from the weekend: This is a typical stoppage from the weekend. Notice that we are playing one short in here, with the extra player being Sinclair on the far right. His counter, Salem, is sitting 30 metres defensive side of the contest (left of screen). We lose this clearance, but the the ball is just dumped straight to Salem who launches a counterattack. We leveled the clearances on the weekend but that only tells part of the story. We are committing our resources away from the stoppages because we've got such talent in there. We are diverting it from stoppages and into a structure behind the ball, minimising the danger of any lost clearances. Effectively we are saying that one of our lost clearances is kicking to a defensive outnumber for us, but any won clearance goes forward to an even contest for us. This is what a gameplan that maximises our strengths looks like. We've been talking about our gun inside players cannibalising each other's possessions and clearances, but this game plan actually maximises the value we get from two of the best contested ball winners in the league (Oliver and Viney), even if they'll actually have fewer clearances because of it, and also having Max. The plan is in several parts: 1- We go into a stoppage with a numerical disadvantage but superior behind the stoppage. 2- Max can direct the ball away from the spare players in the stoppage and to where we have 50/50 numbers, so that the impact of the opposition extra numbers in the stoppage is lessened. 3- Oliver/Viney/Trac can win a lot of these clearances now and get it forward to 50/50 contests. But if the extra numbers win out, we have defensive cover. Max is a big part of this because, whilst getting a clean tap to advantage is really hard, having a big dominant ruck advantage means that we can direct the area of the stoppage that the clearance battle will take place in (ie, where we have even numbers). For instance, in the above stoppage, Max directed the ball front left, which gave Oliver, Petracca and Langdon a fair go at it before the extra opposition numbers can arrive. The end result of this is that we play a pretty distinctive style of game. We're in the middle of the pack league wide for most statistics but we are currently first in intercepts (quite comfortably) and first in intercept differential (by an absolute mile). Check out the intercept differential below: So we intercept the ball 11.5 times more than our opponents every game. If we can stay in the ballpark with clearances then we're getting a massive advantage. Often the biggest strengths of a team are used counter-intuitively because that's where you get the most incremental value. I think about it in terms of the late 2000s premiership teams, Sydney, West Coast, Geelong and Hawthorn. Sydney and Hawthorn both had their strengths in their forward line. Barry Hall, Micky O, Goodes .... Buddy, Roughy. Both those teams played defensive game styles, with Sydney crowding stoppages and Hawthorn employing a very aggressive defensive zone to cover their defensive weakness (Croad and Brichall, then later threw Hodge in as cover, whilst Sydney had Bolton and Barry, who were both undersized). Conversely, Geelong and West Coast had very strong defences (Scarlett, Enright, Mackie, Milburn, Harley etc, and Glass, Wirrpanda, Banfield, Waters) but comparatively weak forward lines (Mooney and N Ablett as keys, and Hansen and Hunter as keys), so they played very aggressive, creative and expansive game styles so make it easier for their less talented forward to score (although they still had Stevie J!). You can solve your weaknesses with numbers but you can back your best players to win contests if given a sniff. Like Richmond does with Riewoldt, Lynch and Dusty up forward, who have to fight against extra numbers but they'll win enough of them to kick you a score, whilst they throw extra number behind the ball to cover their less talented defenders. Unlike previous years, we aren't doubling down on our big midfielders to smash the opposition in clearances every week, we are backing in their ability to win difficult contests and committing our numbers outside the contests where we are weaker. Our mids must be respected, but our ability to commit numbers outside is making it easier for us to defend but also making it easier for our less formidable forwards to kick goals. We evened the clearances last week, which is a great effort when we go into each stoppage outnumbered. If we split the clearances with the opposition this year then that will be a massive win for us. I'm very happy with how our game style has looked over the first two weeks.

Why would we want Kelly c 2021? A shadow of his former self. And, we would need to part with some very good players to free up enough cap space for him. Instead use the money to keep Oliver, Salem, Petracca, Kozzie, Jackson etc.

"What time does the Rooty Hill RSL open today?" "Any tips for Race 3 at Rosehill Gardens? "Could I bot a cigarette, please" ...

I think with us structuring up strongly behind the ball we'll just have to live with the contest. Our end to end transition has been much better and there's a clearer effort to create space even with an out number. Back in 2018 we did this really well. Our best footy came from behind In the above clips we get 2 goals in transition despite an outnumber. One is Jones' where we get out the back with a 5 on 4 in our 50. But even better is the TMac pass to Fristch which is a 5 on 3. This more controlled confident ball movement means we have a high chance of scoring in our first i50 attempt. Then If we don't score from there we can try to lock it in and start to bomb. That's the hard way, but do that enough times and the defence will eventually crack. Or like Saturday we'll kick 19 behinds.... The club talks about method all the time, the execution on Saturday was so-so but the method was much improved. The last couple of years the method with which we moved the ball was so poor that we had no choice but to either hit a pin point near impossible kick or to bomb. Which meant we wound up doing it the hard way straight up every time we went forward. Keeping in mind we still won more than we lost last year, we only need to be a few goals a game better team to push up the ladder. Good footy comes with confidence, confidence comes from winning and winning comes from method. We've seen 2 wins with good method. Keep that up and the confidence will come and then we'll see more of the good clean footy you want.

Someone's hacked old dee's account!

Just said on the news that he'll be back in full training from tomorrow and hopes to get some VFL minutes if not this weekend then next.

“I reckon we win by 3 tries”

I’m not going to let pesky facts prevent me from saying Free Kick Hawthorn when I feel like winding up hawk mates though.

Good post mate. I think the biggest change has finally been in the uncontested possession area. It's long hamstrung us when we've come up against good outside teams, but I suspect a combination of mental maturity, fitness and experience is starting to shift the dial on this part of our game. Given we have multiple guys that can rack up possessions in a contested situation, complimenting this with a greater uncontested focus I think makes us much harder to beat. And as you say, less of this bees to the honeypot stuff means we can defend territory and stoppage better. I hope Yze really continues to work hard on this area of our game. As for Gus, I think there'll be injuries this year that open the door for him as a pure mid, but in the meantime, I'm comfortable with where he is at and what he can offer on the outside. He's also had a year of playing wing, albeit a bit of a struggle last year. Good players learn though and I like the positions he takes up off the back of stoppages. They provide both cover and offence. My premiership favourite is the Bulldogs. Their midfield is simply awesome. It bats deeper than ours but I think we have a stronger potential list across the rest of the ground with at least two A grade midfielders too. The Eagles and Port might be thereabouts again, but the Bulldogs and Richmond are the teams to beat IMO. On our day I think we could beat any of them. It'll be interesting to see whether we can get everything to click this year, if we do, I think we'll wipe a few sides off the park.

That will change dramatically, West Coast play at home this week!

Jordon played off half back for CGS/Oakleigh, so not surprised he's being used in a similar outside role. But it shows the potential evolution of an outside player in the modern game with his tackle numbers. It's not just about cheap possessions. It's about defending and then peeling off when your ball winners win it at stoppage.

What's with the please bit?

Great last few posts! Have noticed something that we are doing quite differently this year so far. Maybe the new rules have something to do with it but there seems to be a concerted effort to take tacklers on, then get it through the contest to someone who is free. In previous years we see the tackle coming and generally a panic disposal ensued which resulted in a turnover or quite often at best another stoppage. We are playing to our strengths of backing in contested ball winners to take more accountability, and draw the tackle or break it. Just a small part of our game that really stood out to me. Will continue to watch us with interest as we continue to evolve and add layers to what seems a much more balanced overall game plan.

haha why would Jackson sign until end of 2022 and then want out after 2021?

Adelaide +29, is that legit? That’s a huge number for only 2 rounds.

Or when Enright played his 300th. (GMHBA stadium, 2015)

I don't see how wanting to score from clearances means you win less clearances. Could you explain your thinking there. Here's some very interesting clearance stat's from the Saints game which support your theory about putting the ball carrier under pressure when we lose clearances. - We won the centre bounce clearances 14 to 11. Not that great a difference. But look at i50's and metres gained from centre bounces. The stats are to say the least a revelation. Saints 11 centre clearances = 3 i50's compared to 11 out of 14 of ours. Even more dramatically metres gained from centre bounces was 821 for us and incredibly only 195 to them. Hard to believe. Clearly there's some fantastic defensive work being done at these stoppages which I for one wasn't aware of watching it. I'd love to know how this stacks up against the rest of the comp. I think in our case there are a lot of factors causing our forward line to be more open. - We have a better structure with some defenders remaining deep and not all getting sucked up the ground. So on transition we have better shape to stop being easily opened up. - The dominance of May, Lever, Tomlinson, Salem has meant our defenders can run straight down the corridor to get back deep and can afford to concede more possession on the wings because by the time they are ready to deliver i50 we are back there. You could see the Saints having to stop in their tracks because they had no where to deliver the ball i50 - The new rules allow half backs to take off and get much more penetration. For instance Salem off half back had the 3rd most i50's in the team with 5 only Trac with 7 & Oliver with 6 had more. This fits in with pre season predictions that the man on the mark rule would mean half back flankers would get record amounts of possession. - I believe the dominance of the backline is creating a predictability to our ball movement so more players are creating options up the field. This is allowing our ball movement to be more deliberate causing us to retain possession and control rather than bombing long all the time. Dare I say this is looking more Clarkson/Hawthorn like. Thank you Yze. - All of the above ultimately contributes to better delivery i50 although lets face it there's still a lot of work to be done there. But the signs are good. It should be cherry ripe particularly for a leading forward like BB.

“Deplorable stuff. Honestly, deserved to lose by 50+. Skills and decision-making as bad as I’ve seen by any team in the league ever. Amazing performance for its ****ness.” “52 ruck contests 40 hit outs to Gawn.” “Was more than 4 points. I rate Melbourne to fill 7th or 8th at best. At the moment we are not where we think we are.” “Spuds game is about right. Team full of spuds.” “Neutrals will see a three goal loss on the news headlines and will not understand how unforgivably dire that was.” “All week the talk was that Lever, May and Tomlinson wouldn't be allowed to dominate like they did against Freo. That our forwardline was too dangerous for them to run loose. We played right into it. Long, high, bombs and the picked it off all night.” “Remember last year how Brad Hill apparently wasn't playing badly, we just needed to get the ball in his hands more? If anything we need to make a concerted effort to keep it away from him. Absolute butcher. Was playing like he was sent by Melbourne to take us down from the inside.” “Petracca would be handy to run with Steele, never mind the free hit we had on that.” “Zac Jones is earning the rep of a real downhill runner. Langdon made him look lazy and undisciplined, exposed him for a lack of desire.” “...after speaking to Petracca after the dees win, we will now cross to McCartin in the saints room for the loss... oh wait.” “I just rage-ate SO much Dirty Bird...” “On the bright side, 2 more years and we will have 1.6 million in cap space to buy more duds.” “Melbourne are horrid and they smashed us. Even then, we had so many chances.” “Even then we were lucky that they dropped sitters and couldn’t kick straight. We deserved to lose, and actually should’ve lost, by 10 goals, and to say that about this Melbourne team is just damning on ours.” And then, all of a sudden, in the seemingly bottomless pit of self-loathing, a beacon appears... “People saying our guys were soft, disinterested, not putting in the effort - I think that's wrong. I've watched it again this morning. It was gameplan and coaching that lost us the game. Melbourne turned up knowing exactly what they needed to do and they did it in spades. - They were always moving around stoppages and with their ruck dominance they had some hugely effective clearances. - They always took on the tackler and usually broke through because they're bigger and stronger, which frequently gave them a man in space. - Their forward 50 was generally pretty empty, and their entries were either to a lead or deep. - Their transition was smart, either through the middle or down the wings. We tried to defend both and ended up defending neither. - They made skill errors, as we did, but generally they weren't in damaging areas. We never adjusted to any of this. We should have played some tempo footy, regained our composure, and started to pick a way through. But we didn't. Not sure whether that's the coaching or the on-field leadership, but either way it's a problem. But blaming individuals for mistakes or lack of effort is misdirection, and it'll lead to the wrong solutions.” Well played, Sir. Although this guy put it more succinctly: “Forget our deficiencies, we were well and truly outplayed. Well done Demons.”

So, much like our team, I went missing mid-season… But also much like them, I’m back with a vengeance! Rest assured, while I’ve had no time to comment here, I’ve been following our Dees closely. Managed to get to all Vic games this season, including the hellscapes of Whitten Oval and Vic Park. Well, hellscapes in terms of the results and our team’s insipid performances. Clearly both venues are one thousand times nicer to watch footy at than Casey…although I’ve witnessed some magic there this season. What a rollercoaster! Some real ups and downs, and when I saw the fixture for the last three rounds, I admit I thought we were goners. Luckily, the girls had no such attitude and in fact seemed spurred on by the challenge. Super happy to return here to see I’ve missed SO MUCH discussion...not the tumbleweeds it once was, great to see so many getting behind the girls with such passion. RE: the need to bring in a player for Daisy, I wonder if we might bring back Emonson and then push Tarrant forward, which is her natural position. Kicked 5 in the VFLW a few weeks back. The other options are McEvoy and Fitzsimon, and after that we’re into debut territory. At least we have options this year, unlike in 2020 when we were down to an assistant coach as our sole emergency at this stage! My feelings on our players across the H&A season: Awesome: Paxman, L.Pearce, Hanks, Zanker, Gay, Goldrick, Lampard, Colvin, Hore, Scott (R9 was a boost!), D.Pearce (never count her out) Impressed now and for the future: McNamara, Tarrant, Bannan, Sherriff, Heath, Magee, Fitzsimon More to give/had limited opportunity: Cunningham, Parry, Mithen, Birch, Downie, Petrevski, McEvoy, Emonson Yet to debut: Caris, Kendall, Simmons Just not fair: Sloane Shout out to the coach and his wife for handling the impending birth across R8 & 9 to perfection and welcome to the little one. Also belated congrats to Jane Lange for coaching the girls to victory against Freo. Everything crossed for Saturday! P.S. Any chance of getting one of our girls up on the banner for this weekend?

Gary cops a lot of crap from people but you can't deny his passion for the Dees. He is Melbourne through and through.

Congratulations to our girls named in the 2021 All Australian squad (40 named): Melbourne Kate Hore Karen Paxman Tyla Hanks Lauren Pearce The final team of 21 – including a vice-captain and skipper – to be announced at the W Awards on Tuesday, April 20.

Two simple elements I noticed from the Saints game. Generally there was one player committed to the contest with a single backup just on the defensive side. The player in the contest worked hard with a number of additional efforts at the contest. This was across all areas of the ground. The other thing I noticed was that at center restarts our players are not engaging in close contact with the opposition as much as they have done in the past. in some cases they are standing 2m off and are well in motion prior to the tap. It was a marked difference from our setup in Round 1.

Given Melky’s poor 2020 I have no hesitation about keeping him at Casey until he puts in multiple performances that indicate that he is back to his best and willing to do the team requirements.

The other way to think about this is that you can set up your team to win clearances by throwing an extra 4 forwards into the stoppage. Eventually opposition defenders will stop following them in and instead will just camp out behind the stoppage and any clearance won will result in a kick to a 5 on 2 situation. By adding extra numbers to the stoppage you increase your ability to win the clearance but you may reduce your ability to score from it.

well given we play afl matches on marvel stadium carpark roof, it's maybe not such a bad idea

I loved the quote from Goodwin's presser that Langdon had no idea that Goody coached from the bench because he'd never been there.

so, down at linton st they are all talking about why melbourne didn't take dusty martin in the draft good thread......?

Hmmm, Carlton you say?

Interesting that Ratten said on 360 that they felt they'd got the game back on their terms and then a 10-15 period from Pickett turned the game. Never comes down to one player but pretty high praise coming from the other side.

This has been 12 months in the works. It's all to do with his kids living in Adelaide. I think the fitness guy they got from Brisbane (Selwyn Griffiths?) could potentially step into his role. I think that's why Burgess stayed on for another year to help with the transitioning period.

It's strange that the media have always downplayed or invalidated Oliver. From 'taking a dive' as a 19yo or preferencing Cripps, it has always astounded me the treatment that Oliver receives as a midfielder both from the umpires, and the limited recognition from the media due to his statistics. He's not a dirty player, he backs up game after game after game... It can't just be as he plays for Melbourne - because the counterpoint to that would be the adulation of Pickett.

This is an absolute ripper of a post, but without sounding like a sycophant, I expect it now from you, Bob. If this analysis is right, we've completely reversed our 2018 formula, which was to have an extra at the stoppage (the sliders) and sometimes even two extras off the back stoppages ala 2017. Given the elite contested talent we have in there, it's a genius move, particularly as it gives us 1 v 1s forward of the contest.

HF: Pickett, McDonald, Neal-Bullen\Melksham F: Fritsch, B.Brown\Weideman, Spargo\Jackson Melksham, Weideman to only get a game depending on form and injuries. Fritsch is our best forward but doesn't kick straight. Brown is a no brainer. Spargo just ahead of Chandler has to continue to improve. Pickett is a star. McDonald's form warrants him to be ahead of Weideman Neal-Bullen's form warrants him to be ahead of Melksham. Jackson will mainly play second ruck with a little bit of time up forward when Brown comes back.

The Weid in place of TMac you have to be kidding. IMO the only way he gets back in if injuries happen.

Fritsch must be in that forward line. He’ll be awesome taking the opposition’s 3rd or 4th defender. Not in a hurry for the Weid to come back. Happy with BBB and T Mac.

That's the problem, though. Can we trust Melksham to chase, defend, gut run and put his body on the line? His skills are something that will make us better, I agree with that. His ability to nail 45-degree angle passes from the wing through the corridor, and to hit targets on a lead, is essential. But if he can't/won't defend and work hard, he cannot play.

I think your stats partly answered this question IT, as does part of AOBs post Set ups for clearances that are more likely to create scoring chances can often be a set up that gives us less chance of actually winning that clearance. The very first center bounce of the game against the Saint's is a great example. if the objective was to win that clearance Kossie would not have started in the centre and two players might have gone to the contest. Instead one player did (i think Viney?), won it, fed it out to kossie who handballed to Oliver who had gone to the goal side of the contest, some 10 metres away, who then fed it back to Viney, who could run inside 50 and kick a goal. That aggressive clearance set up increased the chance of creating a scoring opportunity from that stoppage. But conversely reduced the likelihood we would win it. In 2019 Viney and Oliver would have gone to the contest, won it but not be able to spread it so well (one reason being one less player to give it to) and often the player who received the ball was on the defensive side of the contest and then would get tackled

I remember TItus O'Reilly talking about on his podcast how GWS were often the butt of his jokes (saying they only had two supporters) because he would constantly get heckled on twitter by GWS supporters who said it wasn't true. The only problem was that it was always the same two supporters... so in some ways it reinforced his point! This game though I'm a little nervous for - surely at some point in the year things will click for GWS (even if its only a game or two). We don't have a good record at Manuka and these are the games (after a week of the media singing our praises) that we have a history of dropping.

If T Mac keeps playing the way he has he will be valuable by the end of the season and will be expendable with all the other options we have. If he was traded to say the Pies that would release the money we need for a Kelly who would take the wing that Gus is on. Gus could potentially move on to play with his brother. One or both could be the solution to getting Kelly but he'd want to be playing better than last season and he'd have to be prepared to take a salary cut at least back to what Oliver and Trac will be getting.

Too young

Mental Demons is well named. Dont pay any attention To him he hates Jacko And wants him out if the side snd traded at the end of the year. Total rubbish his posts.

Makes no sense at all that we'd draft a young potential star at #3 then immediately trade him....

https://www.afl.com.au/video/574111/trading-picks-and-mario-kart-the-most-underrated-list-management-tools?videoId=574111&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1617084000001

I know we recruited Stephen May to play on the gorilla forwards, but as good as he is I'm not sure he would cope with any giant gorillas that might turn up to climb the Empire State Building.

Enjoying the clear change in game style in the first 2 games. A lot more measured kicking in attack rather than the usual long bombs, and some fantastic setup behind the ball with the Great Wall being setup with May, Lever, Tomlinson and Gawn. It gives us different ways to win games rather than having to rely on huge clearance and inside 50 differentials in our favour. Hopefully it continues.

I know it's only 2 games in this year but after those 2 games he has 76 disposals (3rd in the league) and he is 60th in the comp in meters gained (4th for Melbourne), so that is not an unreasonable ratio. He is leading the comp in contested possessions (36 vs next best of 30), and also has the most ground ball gets in the competition (22), two stats which why he has such a high handball top kick ratio and also lower meter gained than some others. His disposal efficiency this year is 77.8% and his KE is 74%, so his kicking doesn't seem any worse than handballing. For comparison, Jack Mccrae who has 76 disposals this year has 881 m gained, DE 80% KE 63%, 20 ground ball gets. Oliver's performance is elite, there is no two ways about it.

I'm shocked.

I don't think any plans should be considered set in stone for the next 2 years or so.

There was a dramatic shift in the vibe of the room pre-game to post game that's for sure. Going from "how are we going to fit Crouch and Hannebery into this awesome side" to "how are we going to replace the 10 players that need to be dropped after that performance"