POSTGAME: Opening Round vs Sydney

[ElDiablo14 3,053]

22 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I can't believe this needs to be done, but anyway:

Here's the BOM data for Sydney during game time:

84% humidity during the game. The dew point is also a measure of moisture - it is the temperature to which air has to be cooled in order to produce condensation. The higher it is, the the more moisture in the air.

The BOM says that a dew point of 21 means the weather is "muggy, quite uncomfortable" (5-10 is "dry", 10-15 is "comfortable").

I get that you have the word "Cranky" in your username, but seriously.

Oh look that "balmy" 24 C, so hot! 🔥🥵

[mo64 5,209]

1 hour ago, BDA said:

A lot of Brody Grundy revisionism going on today

Finally a voice of reason.

Playing Max and Grundy wouldn't have fixed our scoring woes. So unless we paid Grundy his full contract to sit out of football for 5 years, he was always going to come up against Max at some stage this year.

We have bigger issues than Max.

[Dee Zephyr 17,442]

On the bright side we at least keep our streak of being in the 8 going. 

[wizardinoz 2,015]

9 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

Expect Simon Premiership Goodwin to shock next week selecting one of Tmac or BBB (both probably underdone and/or past it).

If it means Schache is out then l’m all for it.

[ElDiablo14 3,053]

4 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

On the bright side we at least keep our streak of being in the 8 going. 

But not top 4, sadly.

[MoeSyzlak 546]

1 hour ago, Cranky Franky said:

Dunno where you got that. The BOM site said humidity was 56% at 4.30 pm.

And I am astounded at the excuses being made here. Melbourne has been just as hot as Sydney in the last month.

It's not like we played in Darwin or Cairns.

We were rubbish & supporters should stop looking for weasel excuses.

It was dry & perfect for football. 

 

No matter the conditions it’s the same for both sides!

[Clintosaurus 6,432]

Happiness central in here. We'll be fine.

[Demonsone 1,596]

All BS aside tell me teams getting less travel are not more advantageous… imagine this in a finals, tell me pies playing last 5 games in melb before the finals wasn’t a clear advantage 

 

our club is cursed 
 

Tom Morris &

Follow

@tommorris32

Not ideal for@melbournefc following last night's loss... 20 minutes into the flight home this morning the plane had technical issues, forcing it to turn around & land back in Sydney.

Now the Demons are awaiting another flight, likely in the early

[Winners at last 4,727]

I still get very disappointed after losses, particularly bad ones. But the disappointment doesn't last for days like it used to. 

I suspect that seeing a flag (2021) has helped in that regard. 

[Roost it far 6,040]

3 hours ago, BDA said:

A lot of Brody Grundy revisionism going on today

Is it revisionism? What was wrong with having Grundy and Gawn play together 18 times a year and into finals. Dominate the centre. We couldn’t make it work yet we play Schache? We weren’t smart enough and we dropped the ball on this one.

[leave it to deever 15,333]

I know it doesn't nullify our poor performance last night by so many but it was a big stage game.

Record Sydney crowd ever at the Scg with the club celebrating it's history by hosting hundreds of old players.

Almost a finals type atmosphere in slippery humid conditions as a first game isn't ideal.

Hopefully next year we play our first game at home.

[leave it to deever 15,333]

1 minute ago, Roost it far said:

Is it revisionism? What was wrong with having Grundy and Gawn play together 18 times a year and into finals. Dominate the centre. We couldn’t make it work yet we play Schache? We weren’t smart enough and we dropped the ball on this one.

Grundy and Max didn't work. Grundy could mark and had a poor season.

Maybe if we persevered it could have. Certainly worth a try given who we have at present though .

[Cranky Franky 1,486]

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I can't believe this needs to be done, but anyway:

Here's the BOM data for Sydney during game time:

84% humidity during the game. The dew point is also a measure of moisture - it is the temperature to which air has to be cooled in order to produce condensation. The higher it is, the the more moisture in the air.

The BOM says that a dew point of 21 means the weather is "muggy, quite uncomfortable" (5-10 is "dry", 10-15 is "comfortable").

I get that you have the word "Cranky" in your username, but seriously.

Point taken I was wrong about the humidity but posters hiding behind the weather as an excuse are deluding themselves.

[Sydee 3,613]

1 hour ago, mo64 said:

Finally a voice of reason.

Playing Max and Grundy wouldn't have fixed our scoring woes. So unless we paid Grundy his full contract to sit out of football for 5 years, he was always going to come up against Max at some stage this year.

We have bigger issues than Max.

True but if we aren’t concerned about Max getting an injury then we sure as hell should be because we have very little in reserve with any form as an AFL grade ruck 

[Roost it far 6,040]

10 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Grundy and Max didn't work. Grundy could mark and had a poor season.

Maybe if we persevered it could have. Certainly worth a try given who we have at present though .

In my opinion the club mishandled how they played. They needed 10-12 rounds playing together with Max playing 50 ruck, 20 forward and 30 bench with Grundy playing 50 ruck and  50 bench, with some forward pinch hitting. 

[leave it to deever 15,333]

1 minute ago, Roost it far said:

In my opinion the club mishandled how they played. They needed 10-12 rounds playing together with Max playing 50 ruck, 20 forward and 30 bench with Grundy playing 50 ruck and  50 bench, with some forward pinch hitting. 

Even with the same performances from last year... Grundy up fwd for Schache would be an improvement in anyone's book.

[Roost it far 6,040]

I actually think Max spat the dummy and wanted to ruck alone

[Queanbeyan Demon 5,929]

9 hours ago, Cranky Franky said:

IT WAS BONE DRY, PERFECT FOOTBALL CONDITIONS, WITH A NICE BREEZE BLOWING ACROSS THE GROUND & MUCH COOLER THAN MELBOURNE'S LAST MONTH. I WAS IN THE BRADMAN STAND & PUT ON A JUMPER AT HALF TIME

 

7 hours ago, loges said:

Right and about 10 people on here that were there have stated the opposite myself included, what were you sitting in, the fridge.

It seems like the conditions were different depending on where one was sitting. I was in the stand behind the goals in the top deck. The humidity was appalling. Many people around me were using their floggers to fan themselves. It was pretty awful.

[WheeloRatings 906]

Here are the stats for last night. I can add them to the Stats Files thread once @Demon Dynasty creates it for 2024. It's largely the same range of stats as last year, although I have developed an expected score model over the off season so this is included. Attn @binman

Melbourne v Sydney (Opening Round, 2024)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240001

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	71.1	68.9	+2.2
Kicking Efficiency	63.4	64.5	-1.1
Metres Gained	5534	6279	-745
Inside 50s	51	65	-14
Shots At Goal	21	29	-8
Shots Per Inside 50	41.2	44.6	-3.4
Contested Possessions	145	146	-1
Ground Ball Gets	109	98	+11
Intercepts	78	75	+3
Intercept Marks	14	18	-4
Centre Clearances	12	9	+3
Stoppage Clearances	22	36	-14
Contested Marks	3	8	-5
Marks Inside 50	5	9	-4
Hitouts	38	46	-8
Hitouts To Advantage	9	13	-4
Tackles	65	63	+2
Tackles Inside 50	24	13	+11
Def One On One Loss %	20.0	28.6	-8.6

Expected scores

Team	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	21	9.8.62	42.9%	63.7	−1.7	3.03	−0.08
Sydney	29	12.10.82	41.4%	79.7	+2.3	2.75	+0.08
General Play
Melbourne	15	5.6.36	33.3%	43.2	−7.2	2.88	−0.48
Sydney	16	7.8.50	43.8%	42.3	+7.7	2.64	+0.48
Set Position
Melbourne	6	4.2.26	66.7%	20.5	+5.5	3.42	+0.91
Sydney	13	5.2.32	38.5%	37.4	−5.4	2.88	−0.42

• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
• +/-: total score above or below expected score.
• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	193	202
2	177	171
3	195	186
4	159	204
Match	182	190

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Tom Sparrow	31	71	71.0
Jack Viney	30	63	63.0
Kade Chandler	20	47	47.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	20	47	47.0
Clayton Oliver	25	46	46.0
Caleb Windsor	20	45	45.0
Blake Howes	12	34	34.0
Ed Langdon	18	34	34.0
Max Gawn	11	30	30.0
Christian Petracca	15	30	30.0
Christian Salem	14	28	28.0
Bayley Fritsch	11	19	19.0
Steven May	8	18	18.0
Adam Tomlinson	8	18	18.0
Jack Billings	6	17	17.0
Trent Rivers	10	17	17.0
Josh Schache	8	17	17.0
Charlie Spargo	8	17	17.0
Jacob van Rooyen	6	16	16.0
Bailey Laurie	8	15	15.0
Jake Bowey	5	11	11.0
Jake Lever	3	4	4.0
Judd McVee	1	2	2.0

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	48%	52%
2	55%	45%
3	39%	61%
4	40%	60%
Match	48%	52%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Category	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	0.0.0	0.0.0	+0
Centre Bounce	1.1.7	0.3.3	+4
Stoppage (Other)	2.4.16	4.4.28	-12
Turnover	6.5.41	8.7.55	-14

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	7	7.0	3	3.0
Stoppage (Other)	16	16.0	28	28.0
Turnover	41	41.0	55	55.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	7	7.0	3	3.0
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	0	0.0	1	1.0
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	7	7.0	26	26.0
Stoppage (Other)	F50	9	9.0	1	1.0
Turnover	D50	2	2.0	6	6.0
Turnover	Centre	6	6.0	6	6.0
Turnover	Wing	9	9.0	39	39.0
Turnover	F50	24	24.0	4	4.0

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	2	2.0	6	6.0
Centre	13	13.0	10	10.0
Wing	16	16.0	65	65.0
F50	33	33.0	5	5.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
8	8.0	27	27.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	21	88	87.5	64.9
Jack Viney	19	79	79.2	72.1
Clayton Oliver	15	62	62.5	81.4
Christian Petracca	14	58	58.3	61.1
Tom Sparrow	13	54	54.2	44.9
Christian Salem	9	38	37.5	0.0
Josh Schache	2	8	8.3	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	1	4	4.2	2.1
Charlie Spargo	1	4	4.2	0.0
Jacob van Rooyen	1	4	4.2	7.6
Trent Rivers	0	0	0.0	3.0

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	89	85	84.8	57.5
Josh Schache	14	13	13.3	4.1
Jacob van Rooyen	2	2	1.9	13.1
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0.0	0.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0.0	0.4
Clayton Oliver	0	0	0.0	0.1
Steven May	0	0	0.0	0.0
Tom Sparrow	0	0	0.0	0.0

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2024)	To Adv. % (2023)
Max Gawn	89	37	8	21.6	30.1
Josh Schache	14	1	1	100.0	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0		0.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0		100.0
Jacob van Rooyen	2	0	0		31.1

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Brodie Grundy	76	33	13
Hayden McLean	24	10	0
Joel Amartey	4	2	0
Justin McInerney	1	1	0

[DubDee 20,575]

I can’t believe i waited so long for that game. it was so dull and disappointing 

skills were poor 

Im losing faith in the coaching unit 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,151]

I hope we’re not involved in opening round next year. If we are it will mean we’ll either be in Sydney or SE QLD whereby we’ve proved time and time again that we can’t handle the greasy conditions. I think we were about 1-7in the wet or humidity last year and the one win was against Richmond when it rained for all of 10 minutes.

Anthony Hudson spoke to a non participating VIC club today and he was told that the 4 VIC clubs that travelled this weekend would surely be at a distinct disadvantage.

I also don’t believe the forward line we put out last night was good enough to win a game of footy against a  contender in Sydney. It was honestly 2012-2013 stuff. It will get better but by how much?

Edited March 8 by Bring-Back-Powell

[titan_uranus 22,344]

1 minute ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I hope we’re not involved in opening round next year. If we are it will mean we’ll either be in Sydney or SE QLD whereby we’ve proved time and time again that we can’t handle the greasy conditions. I think we were about 1-7in the wet or humidity last year and the one win was against Richmond when it rained for all of 10 minutes.

Anthony Hudson spoke to a non participating VIC club today and he was told that the 4 VIC clubs that travelled this weekend would surely be at a distinct disadvantage.

I also don’t believe the forward line we put out last night was good enough to win a game of footy against a  contender in Sydney. It was honestly 2012-2013 stuff. It will get better but by how much?

Pickett changes us enormously. He can make things happen with forward 50 ground balls that no one else can (and particularly not Laurie or Spargo).

Petty, Fullarton or B Brown are going to be more competitive in the air than Schache. 

Those two key changes, plus less humidity, should hopefully be enough to make the forward line good enough.

[Demon Dynasty 15,410]

15 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Here are the stats for last night. I can add them to the Stats Files thread once @Demon Dynasty creates it for 2024. It's largely the same range of stats as last year, although I have developed an expected score model over the off season so this is included. Attn @binman

Melbourne v Sydney (Opening Round, 2024)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240001

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	71.1	68.9	+2.2
Kicking Efficiency	63.4	64.5	-1.1
Metres Gained	5534	6279	-745
Inside 50s	51	65	-14
Shots At Goal	21	29	-8
Shots Per Inside 50	41.2	44.6	-3.4
Contested Possessions	145	146	-1
Ground Ball Gets	109	98	+11
Intercepts	78	75	+3
Intercept Marks	14	18	-4
Centre Clearances	12	9	+3
Stoppage Clearances	22	36	-14
Contested Marks	3	8	-5
Marks Inside 50	5	9	-4
Hitouts	38	46	-8
Hitouts To Advantage	9	13	-4
Tackles	65	63	+2
Tackles Inside 50	24	13	+11
Def One On One Loss %	20.0	28.6	-8.6

Expected scores

Team	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	21	9.8.62	42.9%	63.7	−1.7	3.03	−0.08
Sydney	29	12.10.82	41.4%	79.7	+2.3	2.75	+0.08
General Play
Melbourne	15	5.6.36	33.3%	43.2	−7.2	2.88	−0.48
Sydney	16	7.8.50	43.8%	42.3	+7.7	2.64	+0.48
Set Position
Melbourne	6	4.2.26	66.7%	20.5	+5.5	3.42	+0.91
Sydney	13	5.2.32	38.5%	37.4	−5.4	2.88	−0.42

• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
• +/-: total score above or below expected score.
• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	193	202
2	177	171
3	195	186
4	159	204
Match	182	190

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Tom Sparrow	31	71	71.0
Jack Viney	30	63	63.0
Kade Chandler	20	47	47.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	20	47	47.0
Clayton Oliver	25	46	46.0
Caleb Windsor	20	45	45.0
Blake Howes	12	34	34.0
Ed Langdon	18	34	34.0
Max Gawn	11	30	30.0
Christian Petracca	15	30	30.0
Christian Salem	14	28	28.0
Bayley Fritsch	11	19	19.0
Steven May	8	18	18.0
Adam Tomlinson	8	18	18.0
Jack Billings	6	17	17.0
Trent Rivers	10	17	17.0
Josh Schache	8	17	17.0
Charlie Spargo	8	17	17.0
Jacob van Rooyen	6	16	16.0
Bailey Laurie	8	15	15.0
Jake Bowey	5	11	11.0
Jake Lever	3	4	4.0
Judd McVee	1	2	2.0

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	48%	52%
2	55%	45%
3	39%	61%
4	40%	60%
Match	48%	52%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Category	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	0.0.0	0.0.0	+0
Centre Bounce	1.1.7	0.3.3	+4
Stoppage (Other)	2.4.16	4.4.28	-12
Turnover	6.5.41	8.7.55	-14

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	7	7.0	3	3.0
Stoppage (Other)	16	16.0	28	28.0
Turnover	41	41.0	55	55.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	7	7.0	3	3.0
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	0	0.0	1	1.0
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	7	7.0	26	26.0
Stoppage (Other)	F50	9	9.0	1	1.0
Turnover	D50	2	2.0	6	6.0
Turnover	Centre	6	6.0	6	6.0
Turnover	Wing	9	9.0	39	39.0
Turnover	F50	24	24.0	4	4.0

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	2	2.0	6	6.0
Centre	13	13.0	10	10.0
Wing	16	16.0	65	65.0
F50	33	33.0	5	5.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
8	8.0	27	27.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	21	88	87.5	64.9
Jack Viney	19	79	79.2	72.1
Clayton Oliver	15	62	62.5	81.4
Christian Petracca	14	58	58.3	61.1
Tom Sparrow	13	54	54.2	44.9
Christian Salem	9	38	37.5	0.0
Josh Schache	2	8	8.3	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	1	4	4.2	2.1
Charlie Spargo	1	4	4.2	0.0
Jacob van Rooyen	1	4	4.2	7.6
Trent Rivers	0	0	0.0	3.0

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	89	85	84.8	57.5
Josh Schache	14	13	13.3	4.1
Jacob van Rooyen	2	2	1.9	13.1
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0.0	0.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0.0	0.4
Clayton Oliver	0	0	0.0	0.1
Steven May	0	0	0.0	0.0
Tom Sparrow	0	0	0.0	0.0

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2024)	To Adv. % (2023)
Max Gawn	89	37	8	21.6	30.1
Josh Schache	14	1	1	100.0	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0		0.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0		100.0
Jacob van Rooyen	2	0	0		31.1

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Brodie Grundy	76	33	13
Hayden McLean	24	10	0
Joel Amartey	4	2	0
Justin McInerney	1	1	0

Thanks Wheelo... i'll start it up tonight

[TheWiz 692]

21 hours ago, monoccular said:

Despite Ollie's lack of preparation he was a solid contributor.  Who else would you have played?

It’s a very fair question, and reflecting on it I deleted my original post.

I agree, he was a solid contributor. I should have recalibrated my expectations from his previous elite performances, but nonetheless this was good enough.

Cheers

[Earl Hood 5,789]

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

I actually think Max spat the dummy and wanted to ruck alone

All that happened points to just that conclusion. The refusal to select Grundy in the last 5 weeks or so tells me something went wrong at the club. The original plan was for Grundy to ruck and Max to go forward and pinch hit in the ruck. Max didn’t work up forward. By round 18 it was Grundy who was sent packing to work on his forward craft because it wasn’t working up forward. And that was it for Grundy. It’s a team sport but I have had a suspicion that the captain spat the dummy on this. 

Edited March 8 by Earl Hood