The Pick 1 Thread

[Redleg 37,809]

3 hours ago, old55 said:

IMO, North are giving up the most in my proposed deal, maybe WC could contribute 23 and we could throw in 42 back.  North have enough picks already so 23 and 42 aren't much value to them.

https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/afl-draft-order-2023/

WC give 1 + 23 get 2 + 6 + 42 - result: 2, 6, 37, 42, 58

North give 2 + 3 get 1 + 11 - result: 1, 11, 15, 17, 18, 57

MFC give 6 + 11 + 42 get 3 + 23 - result 3, 23

 

That's sort of my suggestion, but I would hope we would get one of 15, 17 or 18 back, not 23.

[Demonsterative 1,986]

JT has an eye for recognising talent and will have in mind who is worth trading up for. It would have been nice to have been in this position last year when Humphrey was on our radar. 
 

We have already traded up and I’m sure JT knows who he is after. If the trade up was part of the puzzle, time will tell. 

[Demon Dynasty 15,638]

8 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

That pretty much leaves us with Curtin...

If we lose Sanders to the Dogs is Caddy not possible at 6?

The guy has everything you would want in a medium forward and can probably play minor mid minutes as well.  Looks to have some run, agility and smarts with ball in hand.

As a forward...

✅️  Reads the ball well

✅️  Takes marks at the highest point

✅️  Decent leap which should hold up well even against slightly taller defenders.  Might be a few centimeters taller in a couple of years as well?

✅️  Sticky hands

✅️  Good body work in a 1 v 1

✅️  VG agility and mobility

✅️  Vg on the lead

✅️  VG over head (playing in front or behind)

 ✅️  Lovely drop punt technique even at distance

✅️  Good snap technique and knows which one to use when

✅️  The last two appear to also come with decent accuracy

Our need for a quality outsideish mid with some foot speed and finish is more pressing but if we can't land Watson, McKercher (both will more than likely be gone by our pick) or Sanders i reckon Caddy would still be a great pick up.

 

Edited October 21, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[JJJ 536]

Curious to hear that people consider Jefferson as a future key forward. 
I don’t think he’s viewed that way internally.

Whenever I see him I see him as a classic 3rd tall who can mark and create something out of nothing. Similar to a young Cam Bruce without the running capacity. 
 

In any case, Essendon really rate Caddy as does StKilda. Not sure about us but if he draws the footy and can knock a few blokes over as a forward, we should consider him at 6.

Seems to have a bit of x-factor too which I like in tall forwards.

[Binmans PA 26,266]

10 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

That pretty much leaves us with Curtin...

Quite incredible that we've got a chance to land Curtin, @Pennant St Dee, and will pikely land him at 6. We love the West Aussies too. We have spoken to him, right, mate?

[Pennant St Dee 11,336]

1 minute ago, Binmans PA said:

Quite incredible that we've got a chance to land Curtin, @Pennant St Dee, and will pikely land him at 6. We love the West Aussies too. We have spoken to him, right, mate?

Yes we have

[Nascent 7,344]

38 minutes ago, JJJ said:

Curious to hear that people consider Jefferson as a future key forward. 
I don’t think he’s viewed that way internally.

Whenever I see him I see him as a classic 3rd tall who can mark and create something out of nothing. Similar to a young Cam Bruce without the running capacity. 
 

In any case, Essendon really rate Caddy as does StKilda. Not sure about us but if he draws the footy and can knock a few blokes over as a forward, we should consider him at 6.

Seems to have a bit of x-factor too which I like in tall forwards.

You could very well be right about Jeffo but it's not often that your 3rd tall is actually the tallest of the lot. Particularly with his contested marking being his biggest strength.

[bandicoot 1,395]

21 hours ago, old55 said:

IMO, North are giving up the most in my proposed deal, maybe WC could contribute 23 and we could throw in 42 back.  North have enough picks already so 23 and 42 aren't much value to them.

https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/afl-draft-order-2023/

WC give 1 + 23 get 2 + 6 + 42 - result: 2, 6, 37, 42, 58

North give 2 + 3 get 1 + 11 - result: 1, 11, 15, 17, 18, 57

MFC give 6 + 11 + 42 get 3 + 23 - result 3, 23

 

Thankfully none of the people on this forum are involved in the trade negotiations.

in which world do you think 3 and 23 is a good exchange for 6 and 11.? Absurd 

[old55 21,383]

24 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Thankfully none of the people on this forum are involved in the trade negotiations.

in which world do you think 3 and 23 is a good exchange for 6 and 11.? Absurd 

It all depends on the players available at those picks. In 2001 it was Chris Judd and Charlie Gardiner for Ash Sampi and Richard Cole.

[Colm 1,480]

1 hour ago, bandicoot said:

Thankfully none of the people on this forum are involved in the trade negotiations.

in which world do you think 3 and 23 is a good exchange for 6 and 11.? Absurd 

In the AFL trading world that deal is about right. Points are 3080 and 3049. Given you normally have to pay overs to move up, we paid almost 1000 points over to move up 3 spots form 14-11. 
 

[Demonsterative 1,986]

16 minutes ago, Colm said:

In the AFL trading world that deal is about right. Points are 3080 and 3049. Given you normally have to pay overs to move up, we paid almost 1000 points over to move up 3 spots form 14-11. 
 

Tim Lamb explained draft picks nicely. Some teams trade for points and other trade for picks/position. He called it a two tier system. 
 

Points are irrelevant if you’re moving up a few picks and this gets you the player you have been targeting. 

[rpfc 27,543]

28 minutes ago, Colm said:

In the AFL trading world that deal is about right. Points are 3080 and 3049. Given you normally have to pay overs to move up, we paid almost 1000 points over to move up 3 spots form 14-11. 
 

The ‘afl trading world’ thankfully does not define value of trades through the points system. It is a mechanism to allocate F/S and academy players and applying it any broader than that is asinine.

 

[Redleg 37,809]

17 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Yes we have

Interestingly, someone posted that we haven't spoken to Reid.

I can think of 3 reasons why.

First, if we got pick 1 we would take him regardless.

Second, we don't think we will get pick 1.

Third, we actually prefer someone else and that may allow us to have another pretty good pick as well.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Redleg

[Colm 1,480]

13 minutes ago, rpfc said:

The ‘afl trading world’ thankfully does not define value of trades through the points system. It is a mechanism to allocate F/S and academy players and applying it any broader than that is asinine.

 

Yes I’m aware of that rpfc, and it all depends on how strongly JT rates the players available at 6 & 11 as oppose to who he would pick at 3. 
It’s also very rarely that you can move up the draft board without paying overs in terms of points. 
I was responding to a poster who asked what world a deal giving 6&11 for 3&23. 
To me that seems a reasonable trade. Don’t know if I’d do it and it depends on how we rate whoever at 3 but it’s hardly  absurd. 

[KingDingAling 3,613]

If Curtin is looking as though he may be available at 6. West Coast should do the deal for 6, 11, and our FF. If they don’t, then just take Curtin ourselves, pick a good slider at 11, and retain our FF.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,249]

43 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Interestingly, someone posted that we haven't spoken to Reid.

I can think of 3 reasons why.

First, if we got pick 1 we would take him regardless.

Second, we don't think we will get pick 1.

Third, we actually prefer someone else and that may allow us to have another pretty good pick as well.

It has been rumoured all along that we are more into Duursma than Reid. Whether that’s just based on outright expectations or the cost difference is unknown. 

[Neil Crompton 4,809]

18 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

Quite incredible that we've got a chance to land Curtin, @Pennant St Dee, and will pikely land him at 6. We love the West Aussies too. We have spoken to him, right, mate?

Although I’ve only seen highlights, they are pretty impressive, and Curtin looks ready made to me. I’d certainly grab him if available at 6. He already reminds me of Steven May. 

[Gator 16,893]

Picks 1-5 is the sweet spot.  It's also usually where stars of the game come from.  Not always, but usually.

If I've got picks 6 and 11 I'm trying to leverage those picks into a top 3 pick. Ideally, I'll get back a late teen or early 20s pick with the trade and hopefully get another good player. But the best chance of ''great'' is top 5 and even better top 3.

Draft	Pick Range	Players Picked	Age Average	Career Games Average	Club Games Average	Brownlow Votes Average	Average Years to Play a 20 Game Season	Average Years to Get Past 50 Games	Picks Needed to Get a 50 Gamer	Picks Needed to Get a 100 Gamer	Picks Needed to Get a 200 Gamer	Picks Needed to Get an All-Australian	Picks Needed to Get a Sub-10 Gamer	Picks Needed to Get a Zero Gamer
National	Pick 1	20	17.9	228.0	171.5	57.5	2.7	3.6	1.0	1.1	1.5	2.0	-	-
National	Pick 2	20	18.0	190.9	154.0	40.4	3.5	4.3	1.1	1.3	1.5	2.2	-	-
National	Picks 3 to 5	60	18.2	165.0	117.9	38.2	4.4	5.5	1.2	1.4	2.7	3.3	15.0	-
National	Picks 6 to 10	100	18.2	133.1	98.4	20.5	6.5	6.6	1.4	1.6	3.1	4.8	7.7	33.3
National	Picks 11 to 20	200	18.1	118.7	91.6	16.6	7.4	7.2	1.6	2.2	3.8	5.7	6.3	16.7
National	Picks 21 to 30	199	18.5	85.9	63.8	9.3	8.0	8.1	1.9	2.8	7.7	14.2	4.3	14.2
National	Picks 31 to 50	396	18.9	78.3	61.0	10.2	8.4	8.4	2.2	3.1	7.2	10.7	3.3	6.3
National	Picks 51 to 70	338	19.5	47.4	38.0	4.3	9.2	9.4	3.8	5.5	12.5	28.2	2.1	4.3
National	Later Picks	168	19.9	40.5	33.9	2.9	9.0	9.1	3.7	5.8	33.6	56.0	1.9	2.8
Rookie	Picks 1 to 10	154	19.7	45.3	32.6	3.9	9.6	9.9	3.3	5.1	19.3	38.5	1.8	2.6
Rookie	Picks 11 to 30	292	19.7	38.0	29.2	2.7	10.4	10.2	4.4	6.0	17.2	32.4	1.6	2.1
Rookie	Picks 31 to 50	229	19.9	35.0	26.9	3.4	10.1	10.4	4.8	6.7	17.6	32.7	1.5	1.9
Rookie	Later Picks	213	19.6	23.3	16.6	1.4	10.9	11.0	7.3	10.1	30.4	71.0	1.4	1.7

[binman 38,618]

1 hour ago, Gator said:

Picks 1-5 is the sweet spot.  It's also usually where stars of the game come from.  Not always, but usually.

If I've got picks 6 and 11 I'm trying to leverage those picks into a top 3 pick. Ideally, I'll get back a late teen or early 20s pick with the trade and hopefully get another good player. But the best chance of ''great'' is top 5 and even better top 3.

Draft	Pick Range	Players Picked	Age Average	Career Games Average	Club Games Average	Brownlow Votes Average	Average Years to Play a 20 Game Season	Average Years to Get Past 50 Games	Picks Needed to Get a 50 Gamer	Picks Needed to Get a 100 Gamer	Picks Needed to Get a 200 Gamer	Picks Needed to Get an All-Australian	Picks Needed to Get a Sub-10 Gamer	Picks Needed to Get a Zero Gamer
National	Pick 1	20	17.9	228.0	171.5	57.5	2.7	3.6	1.0	1.1	1.5	2.0	-	-
National	Pick 2	20	18.0	190.9	154.0	40.4	3.5	4.3	1.1	1.3	1.5	2.2	-	-
National	Picks 3 to 5	60	18.2	165.0	117.9	38.2	4.4	5.5	1.2	1.4	2.7	3.3	15.0	-
National	Picks 6 to 10	100	18.2	133.1	98.4	20.5	6.5	6.6	1.4	1.6	3.1	4.8	7.7	33.3
National	Picks 11 to 20	200	18.1	118.7	91.6	16.6	7.4	7.2	1.6	2.2	3.8	5.7	6.3	16.7
National	Picks 21 to 30	199	18.5	85.9	63.8	9.3	8.0	8.1	1.9	2.8	7.7	14.2	4.3	14.2
National	Picks 31 to 50	396	18.9	78.3	61.0	10.2	8.4	8.4	2.2	3.1	7.2	10.7	3.3	6.3
National	Picks 51 to 70	338	19.5	47.4	38.0	4.3	9.2	9.4	3.8	5.5	12.5	28.2	2.1	4.3
National	Later Picks	168	19.9	40.5	33.9	2.9	9.0	9.1	3.7	5.8	33.6	56.0	1.9	2.8
Rookie	Picks 1 to 10	154	19.7	45.3	32.6	3.9	9.6	9.9	3.3	5.1	19.3	38.5	1.8	2.6
Rookie	Picks 11 to 30	292	19.7	38.0	29.2	2.7	10.4	10.2	4.4	6.0	17.2	32.4	1.6	2.1
Rookie	Picks 31 to 50	229	19.9	35.0	26.9	3.4	10.1	10.4	4.8	6.7	17.6	32.7	1.5	1.9
Rookie	Later Picks	213	19.6	23.3	16.6	1.4	10.9	11.0	7.3	10.1	30.4	71.0	1.4	1.7

Apologies if i missed it gator, but what type of player (as opposed to a specific player) do you think we should be focusing on drafting in with our first pick and then our later picks?

Edited October 22, 2023 by binman

[Redleg 37,809]

2 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

Although I’ve only seen highlights, they are pretty impressive, and Curtin looks ready made to me. I’d certainly grab him if available at 6. He already reminds me of Steven May. 

But the intel seems to suggest we want to trade up.

From the little I know of the draftees, I would be happy with Curtin if we kept 6.

[Gator 16,893]

51 minutes ago, binman said:

Apologies if i missed it gator, but what type of player (as opposed to a specific player) do you think we should be focusing on drafting in with our first pick and then our later picks?

It depends on the pick.  And I believe we'll only be using two (plus I assume Brown).

If we got our hands on pick 3 it's definitely best available.  And for me that's Duursma.

If we keep pick 6, which will become pick 7 or 8, I'd also take best available, which I suspect would be one of Sanders or Curtin.

There's a consensus top 7 in this draft, i.e. Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Sanders, and Curtin, and I'd be taking the one left over out of those first 7 - although O'Sullivan also looks very good.

In a broader sense, I think we have room on the list for another class midfielder, key forward, and key defender.

I think May has still got 3 good seasons ahead of him for one main reason, he still has good speed.  Even after those 3 seasons he'd still be younger than Hawkins is now.  I know  there are not many Hawkins running around but while May still has speed and a desire to compete he should have a few years left.

Petty is the worry.  If we keep him long-term it will be huge due to his versatility.  If not we could potentially quickly have a hole at either end.

But while we're a genuine flag chance I'm chips all in on winning another.  If that means not addressing a specific need, and I don't think we have many, then I'm going best available early in the draft.

 

[Binmans PA 26,266]

10 minutes ago, Gator said:

It depends on the pick.  And I believe we'll only be using two (plus I assume Brown).

If we got our hands on pick 3 it's definitely best available.  And for me that's Duursma.

If we keep pick 6, which will become pick 7 or 8, I'd also take best available, which I suspect would be one of Sanders or Curtin.

There's a consensus top 7 in this draft, i.e. Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Sanders, and Curtin, and I'd be taking the one left over out of those first 7 - although O'Sullivan also looks very good.

In a broader sense, I think we have room on the list for another class midfielder, key forward, and key defender.

I think May has still got 3 good seasons ahead of him for one main reason, he still has good speed.  Even after those 3 seasons he'd still be younger than Hawkins is now.  I know  there are not many Hawkins running around but while May still has speed and a desire to compete he should have a few years left.

Petty is the worry.  If we keep him long-term it will be huge due to his versatility.  If not we could potentially quickly have a hole at either end.

But while we're a genuine flag chance I'm chips all in on winning another.  If that means not addressing a specific need, and I don't think we have many, then I'm going best available early in the draft.

 

I need to watch more of Duursma, because from what I have seen he seems soft. But he's valued very highly, and I rate your opinion too, so will need to do more research to convince myself haha.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Binmans PA

[binman 38,618]

2 minutes ago, Gator said:

Petty is the worry.  If we keep him long-term it will be huge due to his versatility.  If not we could potentially quickly have a hole at either end.

Ta.

Am i right to think that Dursma would address the need for a outside distributor type (i watched him live when Casey played Coburg but he didn't really get much of it but seemed a neat kick)?

On May i think a big factor in how long he can play for is his back.

For much of the season he really struggled to get down to gather ground balls, i assume because of the lower back, glute issues he had preseason.  He really improved in that regard by te end of the season and regained his pace over the ground. 

On the impact of Petty leaving (if that a happens, we'll see), i think a factor is whether Disco can go to another level.

Similar skill set, including being a good interceptor and versatile (there was talk of him coming in to play as a forward against the Blues), though no quite as big or strong (but young still so could bulk up a bit). 

[58er 5,619]

16 minutes ago, Gator said:

It depends on the pick.  And I believe we'll only be using two (plus I assume Brown).

If we got our hands on pick 3 it's definitely best available.  And for me that's Duursma.

If we keep pick 6, which will become pick 7 or 8, I'd also take best available, which I suspect would be one of Sanders or Curtin.

There's a consensus top 7 in this draft, i.e. Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Sanders, and Curtin, and I'd be taking the one left over out of those first 7 - although O'Sullivan also looks very good.

In a broader sense, I think we have room on the list for another class midfielder, key forward, and key defender.

I think May has still got 3 good seasons ahead of him for one main reason, he still has good speed.  Even after those 3 seasons he'd still be younger than Hawkins is now.  I know  there are not many Hawkins running around but while May still has speed and a desire to compete he should have a few years left.

Petty is the worry.  If we keep him long-term it will be huge due to his versatility.  If not we could potentially quickly have a hole at either end.

But while we're a genuine flag chance I'm chips all in on winning another.  If that means not addressing a specific need, and I don't think we have many, then I'm going best available early in the draft.

 

Clearly we need a versatile key forward/back  ie Curtin, Duursma or Caddy plus an outside mid with pace ie Windsor or even Wilson or Reid solely. 

That is the ideal scenario but we should be well satisfied if any of the above occurs . A possibility is that at least one or even the pair are AFL ready at start or some later stage in 2024. 
 

[old55 21,383]

Pick trading ends on 10 November and re-opens on Draft night 20 November