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The Pick 1 Thread


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3 hours ago, old55 said:

IMO, North are giving up the most in my proposed deal, maybe WC could contribute 23 and we could throw in 42 back.  North have enough picks already so 23 and 42 aren't much value to them.

https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/afl-draft-order-2023/

WC give 1 + 23 get 2 + 6 + 42 - result: 2, 6, 37, 42, 58

North give 2 + 3 get 1 + 11 - result: 1, 11, 15, 17, 18, 57

MFC give 6 + 11 + 42 get 3 + 23 - result 3, 23

 

That's sort of my suggestion, but I would hope we would get one of 15, 17 or 18 back, not 23.

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JT has an eye for recognising talent and will have in mind who is worth trading up for. It would have been nice to have been in this position last year when Humphrey was on our radar. 
 

We have already traded up and I’m sure JT knows who he is after. If the trade up was part of the puzzle, time will tell. 

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8 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

That pretty much leaves us with Curtin...

If we lose Sanders to the Dogs is Caddy not possible at 6?

The guy has everything you would want in a medium forward and can probably play minor mid minutes as well.  Looks to have some run, agility and smarts with ball in hand.

As a forward...

️  Reads the ball well

️  Takes marks at the highest point

️  Decent leap which should hold up well even against slightly taller defenders.  Might be a few centimeters taller in a couple of years as well?

️  Sticky hands

️  Good body work in a 1 v 1

️  VG agility and mobility

️  Vg on the lead

️  VG over head (playing in front or behind)

 ️  Lovely drop punt technique even at distance

️  Good snap technique and knows which one to use when

️  The last two appear to also come with decent accuracy

Our need for a quality outsideish mid with some foot speed and finish is more pressing but if we can't land Watson, McKercher (both will more than likely be gone by our pick) or Sanders i reckon Caddy would still be a great pick up.

 

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Curious to hear that people consider Jefferson as a future key forward. 
I don’t think he’s viewed that way internally.

Whenever I see him I see him as a classic 3rd tall who can mark and create something out of nothing. Similar to a young Cam Bruce without the running capacity. 
 

In any case, Essendon really rate Caddy as does StKilda. Not sure about us but if he draws the footy and can knock a few blokes over as a forward, we should consider him at 6.

Seems to have a bit of x-factor too which I like in tall forwards.

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10 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

That pretty much leaves us with Curtin...

Quite incredible that we've got a chance to land Curtin, @Pennant St Dee, and will pikely land him at 6. We love the West Aussies too. We have spoken to him, right, mate?

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1 minute ago, Binmans PA said:

Quite incredible that we've got a chance to land Curtin, @Pennant St Dee, and will pikely land him at 6. We love the West Aussies too. We have spoken to him, right, mate?

Yes we have

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38 minutes ago, JJJ said:

Curious to hear that people consider Jefferson as a future key forward. 
I don’t think he’s viewed that way internally.

Whenever I see him I see him as a classic 3rd tall who can mark and create something out of nothing. Similar to a young Cam Bruce without the running capacity. 
 

In any case, Essendon really rate Caddy as does StKilda. Not sure about us but if he draws the footy and can knock a few blokes over as a forward, we should consider him at 6.

Seems to have a bit of x-factor too which I like in tall forwards.

You could very well be right about Jeffo but it's not often that your 3rd tall is actually the tallest of the lot. Particularly with his contested marking being his biggest strength.

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21 hours ago, old55 said:

IMO, North are giving up the most in my proposed deal, maybe WC could contribute 23 and we could throw in 42 back.  North have enough picks already so 23 and 42 aren't much value to them.

https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/afl-draft-order-2023/

WC give 1 + 23 get 2 + 6 + 42 - result: 2, 6, 37, 42, 58

North give 2 + 3 get 1 + 11 - result: 1, 11, 15, 17, 18, 57

MFC give 6 + 11 + 42 get 3 + 23 - result 3, 23

 

Thankfully none of the people on this forum are involved in the trade negotiations.

in which world do you think 3 and 23 is a good exchange for 6 and 11.? Absurd 

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24 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Thankfully none of the people on this forum are involved in the trade negotiations.

in which world do you think 3 and 23 is a good exchange for 6 and 11.? Absurd 

It all depends on the players available at those picks. In 2001 it was Chris Judd and Charlie Gardiner for Ash Sampi and Richard Cole.

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1 hour ago, bandicoot said:

Thankfully none of the people on this forum are involved in the trade negotiations.

in which world do you think 3 and 23 is a good exchange for 6 and 11.? Absurd 

In the AFL trading world that deal is about right. Points are 3080 and 3049. Given you normally have to pay overs to move up, we paid almost 1000 points over to move up 3 spots form 14-11. 
 

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16 minutes ago, Colm said:

In the AFL trading world that deal is about right. Points are 3080 and 3049. Given you normally have to pay overs to move up, we paid almost 1000 points over to move up 3 spots form 14-11. 
 

Tim Lamb explained draft picks nicely. Some teams trade for points and other trade for picks/position. He called it a two tier system. 
 

Points are irrelevant if you’re moving up a few picks and this gets you the player you have been targeting. 

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28 minutes ago, Colm said:

In the AFL trading world that deal is about right. Points are 3080 and 3049. Given you normally have to pay overs to move up, we paid almost 1000 points over to move up 3 spots form 14-11. 
 

The ‘afl trading world’ thankfully does not define value of trades through the points system. It is a mechanism to allocate F/S and academy players and applying it any broader than that is asinine.

 

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17 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Yes we have

Interestingly, someone posted that we haven't spoken to Reid.

I can think of 3 reasons why.

First, if we got pick 1 we would take him regardless.

Second, we don't think we will get pick 1.

Third, we actually prefer someone else and that may allow us to have another pretty good pick as well.

Edited by Redleg
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13 minutes ago, rpfc said:

The ‘afl trading world’ thankfully does not define value of trades through the points system. It is a mechanism to allocate F/S and academy players and applying it any broader than that is asinine.

 

Yes I’m aware of that rpfc, and it all depends on how strongly JT rates the players available at 6 & 11 as oppose to who he would pick at 3. 
It’s also very rarely that you can move up the draft board without paying overs in terms of points. 
I was responding to a poster who asked what world a deal giving 6&11 for 3&23. 
To me that seems a reasonable trade. Don’t know if I’d do it and it depends on how we rate whoever at 3 but it’s hardly  absurd. 

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43 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Interestingly, someone posted that we haven't spoken to Reid.

I can think of 3 reasons why.

First, if we got pick 1 we would take him regardless.

Second, we don't think we will get pick 1.

Third, we actually prefer someone else and that may allow us to have another pretty good pick as well.

It has been rumoured all along that we are more into Duursma than Reid. Whether that’s just based on outright expectations or the cost difference is unknown. 

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18 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

Quite incredible that we've got a chance to land Curtin, @Pennant St Dee, and will pikely land him at 6. We love the West Aussies too. We have spoken to him, right, mate?

Although I’ve only seen highlights, they are pretty impressive, and Curtin looks ready made to me. I’d certainly grab him if available at 6. He already reminds me of Steven May. 

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Picks 1-5 is the sweet spot.  It's also usually where stars of the game come from.  Not always, but usually.

If I've got picks 6 and 11 I'm trying to leverage those picks into a top 3 pick. Ideally, I'll get back a late teen or early 20s pick with the trade and hopefully get another good player. But the best chance of ''great'' is top 5 and even better top 3.

Draft Pick Range Players Picked Age
Average
Career Games
Average
Club Games
Average
Brownlow Votes
Average
Average Years
to Play
a 20 Game
Season
Average Years
to Get Past
50 Games
Picks Needed
to Get a
50 Gamer
Picks Needed
to Get a
100 Gamer
Picks Needed
to Get a
200 Gamer
Picks Needed
to Get an
All-Australian
Picks Needed
to Get a
Sub-10 Gamer
Picks Needed
to Get a
Zero Gamer
National Pick 1 20 17.9 228.0 171.5 57.5 2.7 3.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.0 - -
National Pick 2 20 18.0 190.9 154.0 40.4 3.5 4.3 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.2 - -
National Picks 3 to 5 60 18.2 165.0 117.9 38.2 4.4 5.5 1.2 1.4 2.7 3.3 15.0 -
National Picks 6 to 10 100 18.2 133.1 98.4 20.5 6.5 6.6 1.4 1.6 3.1 4.8 7.7 33.3
National Picks 11 to 20 200 18.1 118.7 91.6 16.6 7.4 7.2 1.6 2.2 3.8 5.7 6.3 16.7
National Picks 21 to 30 199 18.5 85.9 63.8 9.3 8.0 8.1 1.9 2.8 7.7 14.2 4.3 14.2
National Picks 31 to 50 396 18.9 78.3 61.0 10.2 8.4 8.4 2.2 3.1 7.2 10.7 3.3 6.3
National Picks 51 to 70 338 19.5 47.4 38.0 4.3 9.2 9.4 3.8 5.5 12.5 28.2 2.1 4.3
National Later Picks 168 19.9 40.5 33.9 2.9 9.0 9.1 3.7 5.8 33.6 56.0 1.9 2.8
Rookie Picks 1 to 10 154 19.7 45.3 32.6 3.9 9.6 9.9 3.3 5.1 19.3 38.5 1.8 2.6
Rookie Picks 11 to 30 292 19.7 38.0 29.2 2.7 10.4 10.2 4.4 6.0 17.2 32.4 1.6 2.1
Rookie Picks 31 to 50 229 19.9 35.0 26.9 3.4 10.1 10.4 4.8 6.7 17.6 32.7 1.5 1.9
Rookie Later Picks 213 19.6 23.3 16.6 1.4 10.9 11.0 7.3 10.1 30.4 71.0 1.4 1.7
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1 hour ago, Gator said:

Picks 1-5 is the sweet spot.  It's also usually where stars of the game come from.  Not always, but usually.

If I've got picks 6 and 11 I'm trying to leverage those picks into a top 3 pick. Ideally, I'll get back a late teen or early 20s pick with the trade and hopefully get another good player. But the best chance of ''great'' is top 5 and even better top 3.

Draft Pick Range Players Picked Age
Average
Career Games
Average
Club Games
Average
Brownlow Votes
Average
Average Years
to Play
a 20 Game
Season
Average Years
to Get Past
50 Games
Picks Needed
to Get a
50 Gamer
Picks Needed
to Get a
100 Gamer
Picks Needed
to Get a
200 Gamer
Picks Needed
to Get an
All-Australian
Picks Needed
to Get a
Sub-10 Gamer
Picks Needed
to Get a
Zero Gamer
National Pick 1 20 17.9 228.0 171.5 57.5 2.7 3.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.0 - -
National Pick 2 20 18.0 190.9 154.0 40.4 3.5 4.3 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.2 - -
National Picks 3 to 5 60 18.2 165.0 117.9 38.2 4.4 5.5 1.2 1.4 2.7 3.3 15.0 -
National Picks 6 to 10 100 18.2 133.1 98.4 20.5 6.5 6.6 1.4 1.6 3.1 4.8 7.7 33.3
National Picks 11 to 20 200 18.1 118.7 91.6 16.6 7.4 7.2 1.6 2.2 3.8 5.7 6.3 16.7
National Picks 21 to 30 199 18.5 85.9 63.8 9.3 8.0 8.1 1.9 2.8 7.7 14.2 4.3 14.2
National Picks 31 to 50 396 18.9 78.3 61.0 10.2 8.4 8.4 2.2 3.1 7.2 10.7 3.3 6.3
National Picks 51 to 70 338 19.5 47.4 38.0 4.3 9.2 9.4 3.8 5.5 12.5 28.2 2.1 4.3
National Later Picks 168 19.9 40.5 33.9 2.9 9.0 9.1 3.7 5.8 33.6 56.0 1.9 2.8
Rookie Picks 1 to 10 154 19.7 45.3 32.6 3.9 9.6 9.9 3.3 5.1 19.3 38.5 1.8 2.6
Rookie Picks 11 to 30 292 19.7 38.0 29.2 2.7 10.4 10.2 4.4 6.0 17.2 32.4 1.6 2.1
Rookie Picks 31 to 50 229 19.9 35.0 26.9 3.4 10.1 10.4 4.8 6.7 17.6 32.7 1.5 1.9
Rookie Later Picks 213 19.6 23.3 16.6 1.4 10.9 11.0 7.3 10.1 30.4 71.0 1.4 1.7

Apologies if i missed it gator, but what type of player (as opposed to a specific player) do you think we should be focusing on drafting in with our first pick and then our later picks?

Edited by binman
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2 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

Although I’ve only seen highlights, they are pretty impressive, and Curtin looks ready made to me. I’d certainly grab him if available at 6. He already reminds me of Steven May. 

But the intel seems to suggest we want to trade up.

From the little I know of the draftees, I would be happy with Curtin if we kept 6.

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51 minutes ago, binman said:

Apologies if i missed it gator, but what type of player (as opposed to a specific player) do you think we should be focusing on drafting in with our first pick and then our later picks?

It depends on the pick.  And I believe we'll only be using two (plus I assume Brown).

If we got our hands on pick 3 it's definitely best available.  And for me that's Duursma.

If we keep pick 6, which will become pick 7 or 8, I'd also take best available, which I suspect would be one of Sanders or Curtin.

There's a consensus top 7 in this draft, i.e. Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Sanders, and Curtin, and I'd be taking the one left over out of those first 7 - although O'Sullivan also looks very good.

In a broader sense, I think we have room on the list for another class midfielder, key forward, and key defender.

I think May has still got 3 good seasons ahead of him for one main reason, he still has good speed.  Even after those 3 seasons he'd still be younger than Hawkins is now.  I know  there are not many Hawkins running around but while May still has speed and a desire to compete he should have a few years left.

Petty is the worry.  If we keep him long-term it will be huge due to his versatility.  If not we could potentially quickly have a hole at either end.

But while we're a genuine flag chance I'm chips all in on winning another.  If that means not addressing a specific need, and I don't think we have many, then I'm going best available early in the draft.

 

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10 minutes ago, Gator said:

It depends on the pick.  And I believe we'll only be using two (plus I assume Brown).

If we got our hands on pick 3 it's definitely best available.  And for me that's Duursma.

If we keep pick 6, which will become pick 7 or 8, I'd also take best available, which I suspect would be one of Sanders or Curtin.

There's a consensus top 7 in this draft, i.e. Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Sanders, and Curtin, and I'd be taking the one left over out of those first 7 - although O'Sullivan also looks very good.

In a broader sense, I think we have room on the list for another class midfielder, key forward, and key defender.

I think May has still got 3 good seasons ahead of him for one main reason, he still has good speed.  Even after those 3 seasons he'd still be younger than Hawkins is now.  I know  there are not many Hawkins running around but while May still has speed and a desire to compete he should have a few years left.

Petty is the worry.  If we keep him long-term it will be huge due to his versatility.  If not we could potentially quickly have a hole at either end.

But while we're a genuine flag chance I'm chips all in on winning another.  If that means not addressing a specific need, and I don't think we have many, then I'm going best available early in the draft.

 

I need to watch more of Duursma, because from what I have seen he seems soft. But he's valued very highly, and I rate your opinion too, so will need to do more research to convince myself haha.

Edited by Binmans PA
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2 minutes ago, Gator said:

Petty is the worry.  If we keep him long-term it will be huge due to his versatility.  If not we could potentially quickly have a hole at either end.

Ta.

Am i right to think that Dursma would address the need for a outside distributor type (i watched him live when Casey played Coburg but he didn't really get much of it but seemed a neat kick)?

On May i think a big factor in how long he can play for is his back.

For much of the season he really struggled to get down to gather ground balls, i assume because of the lower back, glute issues he had preseason.  He really improved in that regard by te end of the season and regained his pace over the ground. 

On the impact of Petty leaving (if that a happens, we'll see), i think a factor is whether Disco can go to another level.

Similar skill set, including being a good interceptor and versatile (there was talk of him coming in to play as a forward against the Blues), though no quite as big or strong (but young still so could bulk up a bit). 

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16 minutes ago, Gator said:

It depends on the pick.  And I believe we'll only be using two (plus I assume Brown).

If we got our hands on pick 3 it's definitely best available.  And for me that's Duursma.

If we keep pick 6, which will become pick 7 or 8, I'd also take best available, which I suspect would be one of Sanders or Curtin.

There's a consensus top 7 in this draft, i.e. Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Sanders, and Curtin, and I'd be taking the one left over out of those first 7 - although O'Sullivan also looks very good.

In a broader sense, I think we have room on the list for another class midfielder, key forward, and key defender.

I think May has still got 3 good seasons ahead of him for one main reason, he still has good speed.  Even after those 3 seasons he'd still be younger than Hawkins is now.  I know  there are not many Hawkins running around but while May still has speed and a desire to compete he should have a few years left.

Petty is the worry.  If we keep him long-term it will be huge due to his versatility.  If not we could potentially quickly have a hole at either end.

But while we're a genuine flag chance I'm chips all in on winning another.  If that means not addressing a specific need, and I don't think we have many, then I'm going best available early in the draft.

 

Clearly we need a versatile key forward/back  ie Curtin, Duursma or Caddy plus an outside mid with pace ie Windsor or even Wilson or Reid solely. 

That is the ideal scenario but we should be well satisfied if any of the above occurs . A possibility is that at least one or even the pair are AFL ready at start or some later stage in 2024. 
 

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    Tuesday, 23rd April 2024

    Demonland Trackwatcher Kev Martin ventured down to Gosch's Paddock to bring you his observations from this morning's Captain's Run including some hints at the changes for our ANZAC Eve clash against the Tigers ... READ MORE

    Demonland | April 23

  • PreGame      

    PREGAME: Rd 06 vs Richmond

    The Demons have a bye next week and have a 13 day break before they return to the MCG on ANZAC Eve to take on the Tigers. Who comes in and who goes out? ...READ MORE

    Demonland | April 23

  • Training  

    Friday, 19th April 2024

    Veteran Demonland Trackwatcher Kev Martin headed down to Gosch's Paddock today to bring you his observations from training ... READ MORE

    Demonland | April 19

  • Latest Podcast      

    PODCAST: Rd 05 vs Brisbane

    The boys dissected the disappointing loss to Brisbane rueing our poor work at the stoppages, debated the role that fatigue played and lamenting the loss of Christian Salem ... LISTEN

    Demonland | April 16

  • Casey Report      

    ICE BREAKER by KC from Casey

    The Casey Demons have broken the ice for season 2024 with a pulsating come-from-behind victory over Port Melbourne in which it took the lead for the first time at the halfway mark of the final quarter ... READ MORE

    Demonland | April 14

  • Match Report      

    MAULED by Whispering Jack

    The writing was on the wall from the very first bounce of the football. The big men went up, Max Gawn more often than not, decisively won the ruck hit out and invariably a Brisbane Lions onballer either won the battle on the ground or halved the contest and they went at it repeatedly until they finally won out ... READ MORE

    Demonland | April 12

  • Post Game      

    POSTGAME: Rd 05 vs Brisbane

    The Demons 4 game winning streak has come to an end after a disappointing loss against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG going down by 22 points ...READ MORE

    Demonland | April 11

  • Votes      

    VOTES: Rd 05 vs Brisbane

    Last week Christian Petracca retook the outright lead in the Demonland Player of the Year Award from Max Gawn, Steven May, Alex Neal-Bullen & Jack Viney. Your votes for the loss against the Lions. 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 ...READ MORE

    Demonland | April 11

  • Training  

    Wednesday, 10th April 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers Kev Martin and Demon Dynasty were once again on hand at this morning's Captain's Run at Gosch's Paddock to bring you their observations from training ... READ MORE

    Demonland | April 10

  • Training  

    Sunday, 7th April 2024

    Demonland Trackwatcher Kev Martin ventured down in the rain to Gosch's Paddock for the Demon Family Series April School Holiday Open Training session ... READ MORE

    Demonland | April 07

  • Latest Podcast  

    PODCAST: Koltyn Tholstrup Interview

    I interview the Melbourne Football Club’s newest recruit Koltyn Tholstrup to have a chat about his journey from the farm to the Demons, his first few weeks of preseason training, which Dees have impressed him on the track and his aspirations of playing Round 1 ... LISTEN

    Demonland | December 14

  • Latest Podcast  

    PODCAST: Jason Taylor Interview

    I interview the Melbourne Football Club's National Recruitment Manager Jason Taylor to have a chat about our Trade and Draft period, our newest recruits, our recent recruits who have yet to debut as well as those father son prospects on the horizon ... LISTEN

    Demonland | November 27

  • Next Match 

    .

    Round 07

       vs   

    Wednesday 24th April 2024
    @ 07:25pm (MCG)

  • MFC Forum  

  • Match Previews & Reports  

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  • Topics

  • Injury List  


      PLAYER INJURY LENGTH
    Jake Bowey Shoulder 3-4 Weeks
    Charlie Spargo Achilles 3-4 Weeks
    Christian Salem Hamstring 3-5 Weeks
    Jake Melksham ACL 7-9 Weeks
    Joel Smith Suspension TBA

  • Player of the Year  


        PLAYER VOTES
    1 Max Gawn 67
    2 Christian Petracca 55
    3 Steven May 35
    4 Jack Viney 28
    5 Alex Neal-Bullen 27
    6 Clayton Oliver 22
    7 Bayley Fritsch 19
    8 Trent Rivers 16
    9 Judd McVee 15
    10 Kade Chandler 14

        FULL TABLE
  • Demonland Interviews 



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