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The Pick 1 Thread


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4 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

If I’m west coast and I rate Curtin as either the 2nd best player or the best option for them I’m trading;

pick 1 to the Roos FOR
2 and ideally North’s future first (or another first) and a late first

trading pick 2 with Melbourne FOR
6 and 11 or 6 and a future first.

That way they end up with 6 and 3 other firsts. 

Not sure a team has ever traded anything for 4 first round picks. And if it includes Norths future first and pick 11 from us then it’s a good collection of them too, not just later ones 

Norf would not give them 2 and their only F1 in '24. They are likely bottom 4 again and will not get another hand out. They have traded away their afl compo picks as well. 

I just cannot see Norf coughing up two top 4 picks for #1 -  it would be insane. 

 

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We need high confidence that we are adding elite talent not medium confidence nor high confidence we will get just a good player. Our list is in a position where we need to add the truly special ones that will impact early and will develop to be our next top 20 in league players as Gawn, May, Trac, Oliver age. As we have found (Gawn aside) you are more likely than not to find these at the true pointy end of the draft. If this draft trails off in talent quickly giving a pick 6 with a pick that is more like 15 with NGAs and Father Son, a pick we dont plan to use and a future pick we would expect to be around 14 onwards is not a lot to get a true top end talent. I say go all in if we can pull it off but it looks like West Coast recognise already that its not enough.    

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WC think they’re kingmakers? Let them keep pick 1 and all their later rubbish picks and we’ll look forward to another 10 goal win at Optus next year. 

Edited by Rab D Nesbitt
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People overrate picks too much. If Reid is the best player in the draft, do whatever it takes with your draft pick currency to get a deal done.

We've put it out there, doesn't sound like it's going to happen now.

@Mach5 is probably right and we need to pivot to facilitate the play for North, whilst strengthening our own draft hand.

Edited by Binmans PA
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23 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

The article says:  "Under the Kangaroos’ offer, they were getting extra value equivalent to pick 23, while under the Demons’ offer (if they were to finish fourth again next year), they were getting extra value equivalent to pick 8."

Our offer differential is better than equivalent pick 8 when the full trade value of 11 is factored in.

Fully trust JT et al  but...

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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I reckon they’ll use Reid as an investment.

He’ll no doubt want to come back to VIC in 3 years so WC can ask for trade of the equivalent of what Collingwood would get for N Daicos.

Say 3 first round picks with 2 in the top 10, or an established super star with a first rounder attached.

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I can't see any reason for WC to trade P1 before draft night. The AFL would love nothing more than a live trade of pick 1 on the night and there's no need for WC to be in any rush. We've clearly gone all in but there's still time for North or the hawks to up their offers. 

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9 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

People overrate picks too much. If Reid is the best player in the draft, do whatever it takes with your draft pick currency to get a deal done.

We've put it out there, doesn't sound like it's going to happen now.

@Mach5 is probably right and we need to pivot to facilitate the play for North, whilst strengthening our own draft hand.

I agree.

It's not often a top 4 team has the leverage we have in this draft.  Six and 11 are very good picks, but Reid, Duursma and McKercher are standout footballers.

I'd be doing my utmost to get into the top 3 of this draft.

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16 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

People overrate picks too much. If Reid is the best player in the draft, do whatever it takes with your draft pick currency to get a deal done.

We've put it out there, doesn't sound like it's going to happen now.

@Mach5 is probably right and we need to pivot to facilitate the play for North, whilst strengthening our own draft hand.

This is no longer about picks and points.  It is the opportunity cost of giving up picks 6, 14, 27, 35, 42 and F1 for one player.

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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16 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

This is no longer about picks and points.  It is the opportunity cost of giving up picks 6, 14, 27, 35, 42 and F1 for one player.

I'd argue it's a values proposition now mate. Draft picks or the player you eventually get. Six good or okay players versus one Christian Petracca or Clayton Oliver. I like the aggressive backing of our recruiting team.

But it sounds like it's a moot point anyway. 

Edited by Binmans PA
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5 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

I'd argue it's a values proposition now mate. Draft picks or the player you eventually get. Six good or okay players versus one Christian Petracca or Clayton Oliver. I like the aggressive backing of our recruiting team.

But it sounds like it's a moot point anyway. 

Wasn't suggesting that.  More about what else we could do with the picks we have left.  eg my post above about using 11, 42 and F! to chase another top 10 pick eg GWS's pick 7 and take two top players. 

While I do not wish this on any player quite a few #1 players of the last decade or so have left before their time or suffered career limiting injuries:  HWSNBN, Patton, Boyd, McCartin, Rowell (altho I hope he gets back to his elite best).  Not many #1 picks have reached their full potential. 

So I stand by what I said a few weeks ago:  I am not enamoured by the #1 pick even if it is Reid. 

I also think that our offer will fail even tho it is on paper the better offer.  The north offer gives WCE a better chance of landing the players WCE are said to be targetting.

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1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

I was thinking he would go in the 25 to 30 range but yeah maybe higher now.

Have WCE 'snookered' themselves?  They take Reid with pick 1 and probably miss out on both Curtin and Collard.  Or they cash in pick 1 with North for 2 or 3 (Curtin) and a late 1st round (Collard) and possibly pay overs for both.  Or take our offer and risk missing Curtin at pick 6 and maybe missing Collard as well.

WCE will need to do some nifty pick trading with more than one club if they hope to get both players.

I suspect North will give them 3 and 17 or 18 for 1, there will be an agreement that North don’t take Curtin with pick 2. With those picks I think they get Curtin and one of Collard, Tholstrup, Hardeman 

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2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I reckon they’ll use Reid as an investment.

He’ll no doubt want to come back to VIC in 3 years so WC can ask for trade of the equivalent of what Collingwood would get for N Daicos.

Say 3 first round picks with 2 in the top 10, or an established super star with a first rounder attached.

How? If he leaves he’ll nominate a team, and WCE would then have to take what they can get from that team. And it’d be incredibly unlikely the team would have 3x first rounders, much less two in the top 11 like we’re offering. 

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It's a very expensive price to pay for pick 1, but I'm still on board with the whole Harley Reid thing.

Pick 6 is a very good pick. Pick 11 and F1 are good picks. 42 is worthless to us but a useful pick for a rebuilding club.

I think WCE will end up accepting it. 

People will talk about points and all that stuff, but I find that irrelevant. The same stuff was said in 2019 when we traded with North and nobody has said boo since it landed us Pickett.

My main concern would be if Reid ends up being the next Raynor or is injury prone, but if he is good enough and in the Petracca / Dusty class then it won't matter what we pay. 

Edited by Bang Bang Bang
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Intrigued to know if we packaged up 6 or 11 with 42 and F1 to get a bit higher, and somehow managed to trade for Reid, do we have picks after 42 eg for Brown?  Or do we go with less on the list next year? Or can we have extras train over the summer and pick them up in the pre-season draft (does that still happen?)

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3 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I reckon they’ll use Reid as an investment.

He’ll no doubt want to come back to VIC in 3 years so WC can ask for trade of the equivalent of what Collingwood would get for N Daicos.

Say 3 first round picks with 2 in the top 10, or an established super star with a first rounder attached.

We trade curtin with our pick and trade him back to WC for Reid. 

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I guess it will all come down to whether or not Curtain will be available at 6. North will be trying to make it known that they are interested in him whether they are or not. 
If our offer does get it done it’s a lot to pay for one player but it’s probably worth remembering that we put two of those picks(6&11)on the table for Humphrey last year. Along with the pick we used on Jefferson although I believe we were looking for a future second coming back. 
Obviously we didn’t think  the two future picks would have been 6 & 11 but if all the hype is true about Reid he will be in a different class to Humphrey. 
 

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Unless North fold and offer picks 2 and 3, i'm fairly certain Reid will end up with us. WCE are just posturing. Like a previous poster or two said, there's absolutely no reason for WCE to deal before draft night. 

The top teams rely heavily on their absolute top end talent. This will certainly help us contend during this window if Reid is like an Oliver / Daicos / Ashcroft and ready-made straight away.

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5 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

That is silly on both fronts.

1. Melbourne for putting up a stupid over-the-top bid for one player and,

2.WC for rejected an over-the-top bid for Pick 1.

6,11,42,F1 for Pick 1 is incredibly generous. They are delusional if they think Norf is going to hand over Pick 2,3. They are likely in a position where they have settled on Reid and it will take considerable overs for them to budge. 

 

 

WC will never find a quicker way to rebuild than the offer they just knocked back from us.

We just offered them a kings ransom with nothing coming back our way and they've knocked it back.

Anyway better we are still in possession of 6 and 11.

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6 hours ago, BangBnagBang said:

Cal Twomey reporting on the latest GETTABLE ep that Melbourne offered 6,11,42 and F1 during trade week!!!!!

As per Jack, IF true that would be a massive overs offer.

In points WC would need to come back with pick 10 for a parity outcome if you assume our F1 would fall at around 18 or so.  Higher than pick 10 if our F1 was likely reap a better outcome.

As his adversaries often responsed to agent 86's far fetched excuses when he was caught red-handed spying...

"I find that hard to believe"

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