The Pick 1 Thread

[Colm 1,477]

By the sound of things it will all depend on whether or not Curtain will be available at our pick. Given North hold picks 2&3 and also given they need a key defender they are the key. 
If they put lots of time into Curtain before the draft WC are unlikely to deal with anybody else. 
I suspect North will end up giving pick 2 and maybe 3 later first round picks that WC will use to trade up. 

[Redleg 37,742]

10 hours ago, bing181 said:

I don't see any of the other clubs with picks in the top 10 wanting to do a trade unless it was really unbalanced.

Our 11 and F1st pretty good for Cats and maybe even Giants for dropping back a few spots.

[Mach5 4,482]

21 hours ago, seventyfour said:

If we trade for pick 1, there is no doubt i'll be excited to have such a talent on our list.

But he is one player. Imagine he has a career like O'Meara or Rayner.

We could use 6 and 11 on our next centre bounce midfielder and our Steven May replacement. Nail those picks, plus some trades or free agents in 2024/25, and perhaps our premiership window extends.

I don’t think anyone was talking about trading 3x first rounders for those guys, particularly Rayner. Not sure if they’d have received any offers.

Omeara was exceptional early and looked like the 2nd coming of Ablett jr, until injuries and (I think) mismanagement took their toll. 

[Bonkers 915]

3 hours ago, Colm said:

By the sound of things it will all depend on whether or not Curtain will be available at our pick. Given North hold picks 2&3 and also given they need a key defender they are the key. 
If they put lots of time into Curtain before the draft WC are unlikely to deal with anybody else. 
I suspect North will end up giving pick 2 and maybe 3 later first round picks that WC will use to trade up. 

Who will want to trade down though? If the quality players in the draft are only available at picks 1-15, and rumoured to be the reason we exchanged 14,27 and 35 for 11, it makes it difficult to see why any club would like to trade pick 5 or 7 for example in exchange for a raft of late first rounders. Unless they wanted points, but it seems like most of the teams that needed points have them now. 

[Mach5 4,482]

18 hours ago, bobby1554 said:

Sounds to me that they are after 2 picks inside the top 6, one of which would be 2 or 3, so they can almost guarantee getting Curtin and another top 6 pick. In which case, North are the only ones who have the cards. I dont thin 6 and 11 will cut it, especially given they already rejected hawthorns 4 with candy

No one has 2 picks inside the top 6 (that they’re willing to trade).

But if they are seriously keen on Curtin to the point of splitting pick 1 to get him, why would you care if it’s pick 2 or pick 6 where you get him, as long as he’s still on the board? Where you rate a player is different to the order they get taken in. And another pick before the talent cliff, plus a future? I can see them turning it down & keeping 1, but I can’t see WC making a trade with anyone else.

[Mach5 4,482]

3 hours ago, Colm said:

By the sound of things it will all depend on whether or not Curtain will be available at our pick. Given North hold picks 2&3 and also given they need a key defender they are the key. 
If they put lots of time into Curtain before the draft WC are unlikely to deal with anybody else. 
I suspect North will end up giving pick 2 and maybe 3 later first round picks that WC will use to trade up. 

But who would take 3 later firsts for an earlier pick? Surely all clubs are relatively aware of a cliff within the talent pool. Teams generally only split picks when they need points, or if they can stay in the appropriate range - this would negate that.

It just won’t happen.

The only way I can see North doing a deal is for 2 or 3 plus a F1 . & change.

[Gawndy the Great 7,511]

6 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

But who would take 3 later firsts for an earlier pick? Surely all clubs are relatively aware of a cliff within the talent pool. Teams generally only split picks when they need points, or if they can stay in the appropriate range - this would negate that.

It just won’t happen.

The only way I can see North doing a deal is for 2 or 3 plus a F1 . & change.

Any trade  with 2&3 would be outright insane. You just would not do it today, tomorrow or ever. 
 

Some of us obviously want the trade to happen but in the context of WC, I think their connection to Curtin is a bit overblown. I think we all agree that they are approaching rock bottom and they need talent. If you can turn 1 pick into 2-3 then it is logical to do it.
 

They’ll have pick 1 again next year and possibly the year after so they can really be aggressive in restocking talent quickly and maybe use pick 1 at a later time to target the superstar once their list turnover has stabilised. Doing it the other way around is a bit unbalanced but that is my view.

[bandicoot 1,395]

4 hours ago, Colm said:

By the sound of things it will all depend on whether or not Curtain will be available at our pick. Given North hold picks 2&3 and also given they need a key defender they are the key. 
If they put lots of time into Curtain before the draft WC are unlikely to deal with anybody else. 
I suspect North will end up giving pick 2 and maybe 3 later first round picks that WC will use to trade up. 

No interstate club is going to pick curtin in the top 5. Too much of a risk. Curtin will be available pick 6

[bandicoot 1,395]

25 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

But who would take 3 later firsts for an earlier pick? Surely all clubs are relatively aware of a cliff within the talent pool. Teams generally only split picks when they need points, or if they can stay in the appropriate range - this would negate that.

It just won’t happen.

The only way I can see North doing a deal is for 2 or 3 plus a F1 . & change.

Pick 2 and F1st isn’t better than Melbourne’s 6,11 and F1st

[Colm 1,477]

5 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

No interstate club is going to pick curtin in the top 5. Too much of a risk. Curtin will be available pick 6

Well he will be on a 3 year deal at whatever club picks him. More than long enough to make him feel at home. I’d hope we would pick him if he’s still on the board at our pick. 
But my point was more that if North really want Reid they should show interest in Curtain and put doubt into WC that Curtain will be available at 6. 

[Pennant St Dee 11,324]

8 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

No interstate club is going to pick curtin in the top 5. Too much of a risk. Curtin will be available pick 6

So he’s only a risk 1-5, but will stay if drafted after that

[Pennant St Dee 11,324]

1 minute ago, Colm said:

Well he will be on a 3 year deal at whatever club picks him. More than long enough to make him feel at home. I’d hope we would pick him if he’s still on the board at our pick. 
But my point was more that if North really want Reid they should show interest in Curtain and put doubt into WC that Curtain will be available at 6. 

They are showing interest in him Clarkson WAFL grand final week was saying and doing all the right things about drafting him

[Redleg 37,742]

5 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

So he’s only a risk 1-5, but will stay if drafted after that

Yes it's the pick 6 exception rule.

[Mach5 4,482]

9 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Pick 2 and F1st isn’t better than Melbourne’s 6,11 and F1st

Depends on where you see North finishing in 2024. It could easily develop into 2x top 3 picks. 
And I did say “plus change”, e.g. pick 18 this year, etc.

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,463]

27 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Pick 2 and F1st isn’t better than Melbourne’s 6,11 and F1st

I think that's way better.

At worst that is probably pick 2 and pick 4.

[Willy's Warriors 59]

I reckon we're a chance here. 

If WCE rate Curtain as the second best player in the draft, then it will likely come down to whether or not he will still be there at six.  If he is, the offers would then effectively be: 

• Curtain, pick 15, pick 17 and pick 18 for Reid (NM); or
• Curtain, pick 11,  and a future first for Reid. 

I can see our offer being more palatable.  We have a higher pick, and, based on clubs trading this year, it looks like an F1 will be potentially more attractive than pick 17 and 18 this year.  

I can't see North trading two of pick 2, 3 and their future first, so that might be enough. 

Might all hinge on the risk that a club takes Curtain at 2-5, but it looks likely that those picks will be McKercher, Duursma, Watson and Sanders, with Caddy, Curtain and O'Sullivan outside chances.  

[Sydee 3,636]

18 minutes ago, Willy's Warriors said:

I reckon we're a chance here. 

If WCE rate Curtain as the second best player in the draft, then it will likely come down to whether or not he will still be there at six.  If he is, the offers would then effectively be: 

• Curtain, pick 15, pick 17 and pick 18 for Reid (NM); or
• Curtain, pick 11,  and a future first for Reid. 

I can see our offer being more palatable.  We have a higher pick, and, based on clubs trading this year, it looks like an F1 will be potentially more attractive than pick 17 and 18 this year.  

I can't see North trading two of pick 2, 3 and their future first, so that might be enough. 

Might all hinge on the risk that a club takes Curtain at 2-5, but it looks likely that those picks will be McKercher, Duursma, Watson and Sanders, with Caddy, Curtain and O'Sullivan outside chances.  

Based on the little bit I’ve seen I’d probably rate O'Sullivan ahead of Curtain but have to admit small sample  

[Demon Dynasty 15,585]

5 hours ago, Colm said:

By the sound of things it will all depend on whether or not Curtain will be available at our pick. Given North hold picks 2&3 and also given they need a key defender they are the key. 
If they put lots of time into Curtain before the draft WC are unlikely to deal with anybody else. 
I suspect North will end up giving pick 2 and maybe 3 later first round picks that WC will use to trade up. 

According to Curtin no one has put 'alot of time' into him so far, even WC.

He's had chats with them but nothing extraordinary if he is to be believed.

[jnrmac 19,077]

15 hours ago, Left Foot Snap said:

GWS traded for it last year.

And didn't freo trade pick 1 for Trent croad?

[whatwhat say what 19,109]

11 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

And didn't freo trade pick 1 for Trent croad?

pick 1 (hodge) for pick 10 (mcpharlin) and croad

[Gawndy the Great 7,511]

Here’s a scenario. I’m not  this is possible?

WCE take Reid with Pick 1.

If Curtain is available at Pick 6, they the  trade Reid to us for 6,11 and F1/2? 

Can you trade players live in the draft? I presume Reid is contracted at the time of being picked and hence available for trade?

[old55 21,356]

1 minute ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Here’s a scenario. I’m not  this is possible?

WCE take Reid with Pick 1.

If Curtain is available at Pick 6, they the  trade Reid to us for 6,11 and F1/2? 

Can you trade players live in the draft? I presume Reid is contracted at the time of being picked and hence available for trade?

Nope you can't trade players on draft night

[Gawndy the Great 7,511]

Just now, old55 said:

Nope you can't trade players on draft night

Well they should make an exception for us this year 😂. We have been screwed so many times by the AFL surely the owe us a solid.

[Bang Bang Bang 5,507]

2 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Here’s a scenario. I’m not  this is possible?

WCE take Reid with Pick 1.

If Curtain is available at Pick 6, they the  trade Reid to us for 6,11 and F1/2? 

Can you trade players live in the draft? I presume Reid is contracted at the time of being picked and hence available for trade?

American sports do that but it’s not allowed in AFL trading. Not yet anyway.

Cal Twomey has had about 90-100% strike rates with his top 10 phantom drafts in recent years, so if he knows what clubs are doing then I’m fairly certain West Coast will know in advance with 99.9% confidence if Curtin is available at 6 or not. 

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,463]

You can do it in the NBA and I wouldn't mind it in AFL with some potential safeguards in place.

This would be the perfect example of how it could work, if the trade was agreed prior on the proviso that Curtin got through to pick 6.

Reid and Curtin would be aware and it would be completely above board.