GAMEDAY: Rd 18 vs Brisbane

[dazzledavey36 48,921]

Dees by 15

[SPC 2,860]

Looks a far more balanced side on paper. Joel Smith would be important as sub. 
Can’t say I’m confident, but keen to see how we stack up. Ben Brown was torched a few times last week on the lead- lower the eyes lads!!!

If we can win this and next week without Oliver, the media better start believing.. talking to you Buckley you skivvy wearing sook!!!

[binman 38,597]

51 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Our only chance is to make it a low scoring maul. (8 goals apiece or thereabouts)

Win is great but we also need to protect our percentage buffer.

Get into a shootout and Brisbane could take us apart.

Disagree.

My take is, much like the Pies match, this is a target game for us. Meaning we will have freshened up, and even with a six day break, will be running over the ground better than we have since the Pies game.

There are only three other contenders, the Lions are one of them. Beat them on the g to create more doubt in their heads about their chances come finals

And on top of that there is real enmity between the two teams. I don't think this group of dees players will ever forgive or forget the sledging of Petty by Zorko. And then there is the fact they beat us in the finals last year. 

We will be looking to make a statement. 

I'm predicting it will be high scoring game, with us doing most of it. 

And unlike the Pies game, i think we will be looking to push the pace, go fast on transition from the back half, and be more daring with our ball movement, with more use of the corridor and aggressive lane changes.

Against the Pies it made perfect sense to play slow, protect the corridor and force them down the line because doing so blunted their advantages over us - their leg speed and kicking skills.

But we match up much better against the Lions because their strengths are contested ball and stoppages, and we more than match them in both areas. In fact we smash them in contested possessions. We are AFL #1 for CP (just ahead of the Saints)and they are mid table (AFL #10), barely above league average.

The last thing we want is a low scoring maul because that plays into the Lions' strengths and mitigates their key weakness.

Very much opposite to the Pies, the Lions' biggest weakness is their lack of leg speed, which i think is the reason they struggle at the G.

I think we will look to exploit that weakness with fast ball movement, keeping the ball in motion and if sufficiently fresh, running in waves to create free plays ahead of the ball and inside 50. 

I suspect one of the drivers of brodie's (who is not quick at the best of times and looked like he had concrete in his boots against the saints) omission is looking to inject more speed and run. 

Last year's round 15 mauling of the Lions (37 scoring shots to 18!) will be the template. 

A key will be stopping Andrews intercepting as he is as important to them as May and Lever in terms of connecting defence and offence. 

The other key will limiting the impact of their medium forwards - Cameron, McCarthy, Raynor, and when he pushes forward Bailey. 

Dunkley is not at Oliver's level, but a case could be made for Dunkley being at least as important to the Lions as Oliver is to us. So i think Dunkley not getting up is massive.

Dees by 43 points. 

By the by, contradicting my confidence, the Lions have continued to shorten in the betting and the game is now close to a 50 50 toss up betting wise (we are 1.85 and they are 1.92). 

Edited July 14, 2023 by binman

[WalkingCivilWar 32,385]

37 minutes ago, Deebauched said:

Collingwood supporters will be having a chuckle over Grundy being dropped. Actually, Richardson mupped the interview saying Grundy needed fwd practice at Casey. Casey have a bye?

Which confirms the fact that what our coaches and the Club in general are saying publicly shouldn’t be taken as gospel. It’s not mandatory for them to disclose the truth, so why would they? To appease the fans? I’d rather NOT know the whole truth, for if I know, the other 17 clubs know.

 I personally believe these “questionable” moves are being made with a view to having our strongest, fittest side possible come finals. And isn’t that what all of Goody’s detractors want? Or perhaps they enjoy regarding him as stubborn, pigheaded, unambitious, and so on and so forth.

Hashtag damned if you do etc. 

[titan_uranus 22,518]

2 hours ago, A F said:

Have to win CPs, stoppages and ground balls. Do that and I can't see us losing.

GWS says hi. 

But I agree. In Round 2 they scored 5-odd goals from stoppage, many early, and that was the game. When we have beaten them in 2021-22 we dominated the middle and prevented their dangerous forwards from being involved through lack of supply.

No Dunkley helps offset no Oliver but they replace Dunkley with Lyons whereas ostensibly Woewodin has Oliver’s spot. So we are on the back foot a bit there. If we bring midfield heat, I’m confident, but only slightly. This is going to be really tough IMO.

[titan_uranus 22,518]

9 minutes ago, binman said:

Disagree.

My take is, much like the Pies match, this is a target game for us. Meaning we will have freshened up, and even with a six day break, will be running over the ground better than we have since the Pies game.

There are only three other contenders, the Lions are one of them. Beat them on the g to create more doubt in their heads about their chances come finals

And on top of that there is real enmity between the two teams. I don't think this group of dees players will ever forgive or forget the sledging of Petty by Zorko. And then there is the fact they beat us in the finals last year. 

We will be looking to make a statement. 

I'm predicting it will be high scoring game, with us doing most of it. 

And unlike the Pies game, i think we will be looking to push the pace, go fast on transition from the back half, and be more daring with our ball movement, with more use of the corridor and aggressive lane changes.

Against the Pies it made perfect sense to play slow, protect the corridor and force them down the line because doing so blunted their advantages over us - their leg speed and kicking skills.

But we match up much better against the Lions because their strengths are contested ball and stoppages, and we more than match them in both areas. In fact we smash them in contested possessions. We are AFL #1 for CP (just ahead of the Saints)and they are mid table (AFL #10), barely above league average.

The last thing we want is a low scoring maul because that plays into the Lions' strengths and mitigates their key weakness.

Very much opposite to the Pies, the Lions' biggest weakness is their lack of leg speed, which i think is the reason they struggle at the G.

I think we will look to exploit that weakness with fast ball movement, keeping the ball in motion and if sufficiently fresh, running in waves to create free plays ahead of the ball and inside 50. 

I suspect one of the drivers of brodie's (who is not quick at the best of times and looked like he had concrete in his boots against the saints) omission is looking to inject more speed and run. 

Last year's round 15 mauling of the Lions (37 scoring shots to 18!) will be the template. 

A key will be stopping Andrews intercepting as he is as important to them as May and Lever in terms of connecting defence and offence. 

The other key will limiting the impact of their medium forwards - Cameron, McCarthy, Raynor, and when he pushes forward Bailey. 

Dunkley is not at Oliver's level, but a case could be made for Dunkley being at least as important to the Lions as Oliver is to us. So i think Dunkley not getting up is massive.

Dees by 43 points. 

By the by, contradicting my confidence, the Lions have continued to shorten in the betting and the game is now close to a 50 50 toss up betting wise (we are 1.85 and they are 1.92). 

Don’t you think this will be a target game for them, too?

[Binmans PA 26,263]

4 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

GWS says hi. 

Different conditions and different point in the season.

I expect us to be hitting our straps by Round 20 (that Richmond game), but as evidenced by our kicking last week, I don't expect us to have another result this season that is anywhere close to that GWS performance in front of the sticks.

Therefore, CPs, clearances and ground ball wins mean we'd have to be inaccurate like Rounds 12-16 to lose. If we win territory off the back of CPs and clearances, Lions will have trouble scoring, because they rely on forward half intercepts for scores.

[Diamond_Jim 11,860]

13 minutes ago, binman said:

Disagree.

My take is, much like the Pies match, this is a target game for us. Meaning we will have freshened up, and even with a six day break, will be running over the ground better than we have since the Pies game.

There are only three other contenders, the Lions are one of them. Beat them on the g to create more doubt in their heads about their chances come finals

And on top of that there is real enmity between the two teams. I don't think this group of dees players will ever forgive or forget the sledging of Petty by Zorko. And then there is the fact they beat us in the finals last year. 

We will be looking to make a statement. 

I'm predicting it will be high scoring game, with us doing most of it. 

And unlike the Pies game, i think we will be looking to push the pace, go fast on transition from the back half, and be more daring with our ball movement, with more use of the corridor and aggressive lane changes.

Against the Pies it made perfect sense to play slow, protect the corridor and force them down the line because doing so blunted their advantages over us - their leg speed and kicking skills.

But we match up much better against the Lions because their strengths are contested ball and stoppages, and we more than match them in both areas. In fact we smash them in contested possessions. We are AFL #1 for CP (just ahead of the Saints)and they are mid table (AFL #10), barely above league average.

The last thing we want is a low scoring maul because that plays into the Lions' strengths and mitigates their key weakness.

Very much opposite to the Pies, the Lions' biggest weakness is their lack of leg speed, which i think is the reason they struggle at the G.

I think we will look to exploit that weakness with fast ball movement, keeping the ball in motion and if sufficiently fresh, running in waves to create free plays ahead of the ball and inside 50. 

I suspect one of the drivers of brodie's (who is not quick at the best of times and looked like he had concrete in his boots against the saints) omission is looking to inject more speed and run. 

Last year's round 15 mauling of the Lions (37 scoring shots to 18!) will be the template. 

A key will be stopping Andrews intercepting as he is as important to them as May and Lever in terms of connecting defence and offence. 

The other key will limiting the impact of their medium forwards - Cameron, McCarthy, Raynor, and when he pushes forward Bailey. 

Dunkley is not at Oliver's level, but a case could be made for Dunkley being at least as important to the Lions as Oliver is to us. So i think Dunkley not getting up is massive.

Dees by 43 points. 

By the by, contradicting my confidence, the Lions have continued to shorten in the betting and the game is now close to a 50 50 toss up betting wise (we are 1.85 and they are 1.92). 

Good points if we were performing but at the moment the engine is just turning over.

Coach to the present team not the one you dream of is my thoughts.

Strangely enough against the Saints I thought we were too conservative. There were 2 occasions where we got 2/3 goals up where a bit of fast play might have put the game to bed far earlier. Saints however especially down 3 key players are not Brisbane

[binman 38,597]

7 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Don’t you think this will be a target game for them, too?

It absolutely will be.

But, one I think we are a better team with a superior method, particularly defensively.

And two, we match up really well against them and despite them winning the last two games we have had the wood on them under goody (and even in the loss in the finals, our advantages over them were evident in the first half, before we ran out of gas).

The other factor is, whilst both teams are coming off six day breaks, they have to travel and we dont.

[sue 8,451]

1 hour ago, layzie said:

....

The confusing words from Richo and making a 29 y.o 2 x AA ruckman go to the VFL to work on his forward craft just casts doubt though over what it all really means. 

Leaving aside the puzzling issue of starting to do this when Casey has a bye, working on his forward craft makes sense to me. 

Even if he has never been much chop up forward, if we plan to use 2 rucks in the finals and would like to rest them in coming weeks, it makes sense to improve his forward craft as much as possible.  If limited VFL minutes can be considered a rest, it makes sense, even if he learns just a little.

[binman 38,597]

3 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Strangely enough against the Saints I thought we were too conservative. There were 2 occasions where we got 2/3 goals up where a bit of fast play might have put the game to bed far earlier. 

Or risked being scored against on the counter.

We didn't have the run in the legs for fast play in the last quarter and the oppp cant score if they dont have the ball, so tempo footy was smart.

But if I'm right, we might well look to put the lions to the sword if we get 2-3 goals up.

[binman 38,597]

10 minutes ago, sue said:

Leaving aside the puzzling issue of starting to do this when Casey has a bye, working on his forward craft makes sense to me. 

Even if he has never been much chop up forward, if we plan to use 2 rucks in the finals and would like to rest them in coming weeks, it makes sense to improve his forward craft as much as possible.  If limited VFL minutes can be considered a rest, it makes sense, even if he learns just a little.

Exactly.

Far from putting a question mark on brodie's place in the team, going back to work on his forward craft reinforces their commitment to the two ruck, resting forward model.

I actually think it is as much a comment on Maxy's forward craft in the sense that to maximise his strengths he has to play more ruck time coz he is average up forward.

The same could be said of brodie, but maxy is the big dog. And a better player, so it makes sense to have him playing his optimal role.

[praha 10,293]

The Lions have grown a lot since we pumped them in round 23. They are much better. Not the end of the world if we lose, they are a good team. And I still think we are comfortably a top 4 side either way. I'm most worried about the Bombers stealing 4th tbh. Which would be horrific for the entire football world.

Edited July 14, 2023 by praha

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

10 hours ago, McQueen said:

Draw somewhere in the 65 point range. 

Well, I'd take a draw ahead of a loss but we definitely don't want a draw as it negates the advantage of having a significantly higher percentage than all the teams below us.

4 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Huge huge game.  Win it and we are likely top 4. Loss means likely battle and a 5-6 finish still could eventuate.  Strange to drop Grundy but in Goody we trust !! 

Win it and we are almost certainly Top 4. Lose it and we are still likely Top 4 given the Dogs loss last night. 

3 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Confidence is low, but optimism is high.

I love and hate Friday night games for this reason. Win and the weekend is set up. Lose and you'll be annoyed for the rest of the weekend. 

I think I may have finally matured slightly. I'm very unhappy after a loss but I definitely don't dwell on it and I get full value enjoyment after the wins. 

3 hours ago, Demonland said:

From 16:18

Shows the SEN guys have absolutely no idea. Firstly, just because Grundy gets dropped (or rested?) doesn't mean he was sold a crock by Melbourne. He's not a 1st year player, he knows how it works. Secondly, at this stage he's not playing this week. That's all. Far too early to come to any long-term conclusions. As to King saying it's on the cusp of season end, that's BS. 7 rounds to go. I seem to recall BBB didn't come back into the side until Round 20 in our Premiership Year. 

1 hour ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I really don't get the big deal about a side choosing to send a player back to VFL to work on some things, plus also get a bit of a rest after coming off a 12 month injury.

 

Agreed. And he hasn't been sent back to the VFL (yet). Casey have a bye and Grundy may be brought straight back in against Adelaide without even playing for Casey.

[BoBo 2,147]

10 hours ago, DeelightfulPlay said:

I'm a little scarred from the start of the year where they just blew us away in the midfield until the lights blew out.  Hoping we can capture some of that magic from the final 10 minutes!

I completely forgot about the lights! Feels like it was an age ago 

[DeeMee 740]

If memory serves correct (which is always doubtful) BBB and JvR played quite a bit together at Casey so they will be familiar with how each plays and working together.

[binman 38,597]

8 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Well, I'd take a draw ahead of a loss but we definitely don't want a draw as it negates the advantage of having a significantly higher percentage than all the teams below us.

Win it and we are almost certainly Top 4. Lose it and we are still likely Top 4 given the Dogs loss last night. 

I think I may have finally matured slightly. I'm very unhappy after a loss but I definitely don't dwell on it and I get full value enjoyment after the wins. 

Shows the SEN guys have absolutely no idea. Firstly, just because Grundy gets dropped (or rested?) doesn't mean he was sold a crock by Melbourne. He's not a 1st year player, he knows how it works. Secondly, at this stage he's not playing this week. That's all. Far too early to come to any long-term conclusions. As to King saying it's on the cusp of season end, that's BS. 7 rounds to go. I seem to recall BBB didn't come back into the side until Round 20 in our Premiership Year. 

Agreed. And he hasn't been sent back to the VFL (yet). Casey have a bye and Grundy may be brought straight back in against Adelaide without even playing for Casey.

Agree with all of the above.

I don't think he'll come back in for the crows game though.

The work on his forward craft stuff gives them cover so not being selected for the crows is not made an issue by the media.

And the crows leg speed will trouble us, so one less tall makes sense. 

Also gives brodie a decent chop out - no game this week and managed minutes playing as a pure forward (so no being smashed in the ruck) next week.

Back in against the plodding tigers.

[Jaded No More 58,347]

12 minutes ago, binman said:

 

Back in against the plodding tigers.

Who won't have their ruckman either

[layzie 29,087]

50 minutes ago, sue said:

Leaving aside the puzzling issue of starting to do this when Casey has a bye, working on his forward craft makes sense to me. 

Even if he has never been much chop up forward, if we plan to use 2 rucks in the finals and would like to rest them in coming weeks, it makes sense to improve his forward craft as much as possible.  If limited VFL minutes can be considered a rest, it makes sense, even if he learns just a little.

If his craft improves then there will be no complaints from me. 

[beelzebub 22,230]

Those suggesting this may become a relatively high scoring game...I suspect you may be correct..   But this may not be a good thing...for us.

I thought we'd need 12 goals against the saints...  as had thought theyd kick a bit better..  We got there.

I can easily see the Lions getting to 15/16 (more )goals tonight...  so we must better that.. I'm  just struggling to see where that emanates from. Yep..Trac had a night out last week...Dont count on the same... Fagan will set about a bit more attention to Christian..  I suppose any number of our lot could bob up and slot a few... the problem is for me I can't see them ALL doing that.

Call me negative Nancy (or whatever is your fav ) ...but I just dont see us kicking more than about  10-11 goals and that for mine is about 5 or 6 short.

All I can hope for  is that that  Hoodoo  do its Voodoo that you do so well....   

Go Dees

[layzie 29,087]

2 hours ago, Deebauched said:

Collingwood supporters will be having a chuckle over Grundy being dropped. Actually, Richardson mupped the interview saying Grundy needed fwd practice at Casey. Casey have a bye?

Well maybe if Collingwood dropped him occasionally they wouldn't have paid him a bajillion dollars. 

[Bitter but optimistic 21,332]

3 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Those suggesting this may become a relatively high scoring game...I suspect you may be correct..   But this may not be a good thing...for us.

I thought we'd need 12 goals against the saints...  as had thought theyd kick a bit better..  We got there.

I can easily see the Lions getting to 15/16 (more )goals tonight...  so we must better that.. I'm  just struggling to see where that emanates from. Yep..Trac had a night out last week...Dont count on the same... Fagan will set about a bit more attention to Christian..  I suppose any number of our lot could bob up and slot a few... the problem is for me I can't see them ALL doing that.

Call me negative Nancy (or whatever is your fav ) ...but I just dont see us kicking more than about  10-11 goals and that for mine is about 5 or 6 short.

All I can hope for  is that that  Hoodoo  do its Voodoo that you do so well....   

Go Dees

Night game and our strong defensive unit !

I can't see Brisvegas kicking that score bb !!

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,941]

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

This will be "won" in the coaching box.

Our only chance is to make it a low scoring maul. (8 goals apiece or thereabouts)

Win is great but we also need to protect our percentage buffer.

Get into a shootout and Brisbane could take us apart.

Was looking at the AFL app yesterday, before we played them in the finals last year.

Rd 15 MCG : 

Dees 16.21 117 to Lions 7.11 53

Rd 23 Gabba :

Dees 18.7 115 to Lions 8.9 57

Getting the ball inside 50 has never been an issue, first game together for BBB and JVR, time to light the scoreboard up.

[layzie 29,087]

57 minutes ago, binman said:

Or risked being scored against on the counter.

We didn't have the run in the legs for fast play in the last quarter and the oppp cant score if they dont have the ball, so tempo footy was smart.

But if I'm right, we might well look to put the lions to the sword if we get 2-3 goals up.

I agree, I think we're going to go more helter skelter tonight and try to expose them with quick rebounding run. If something occasionally comes back the other way and they score as a result then so be it.

We'll be looking to have their forwards chasing us and hopefully running them ragged. Let's see what this glittering forward line's defensive pressure is like. 

[beelzebub 22,230]

9 minutes ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Night game and our strong defensive unit !

I can't see Brisvegas kicking that score bb !!

I can if they get out the middle quick enough.

Our defence works best when opposition is rebounding as they get a chance to set the wall and read the ball. That , imo, amounts to nought if they do to us what we used to do to others... bang out the middle...eyes low hit a lead up.

Brisvegas are no slouches in this manner.