Top 8 Now Fixed - according to history

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,644]

1 hour ago, Katrina Dee Fan said:

Except for Collingwood in 1902 (they lost in 1901)

or Fitzory in 1904 (they lost in 1903)

or Collingwood in 1919 (they lost in 1918)

or Richmond in 1920 (they lost in 1919)

or Collingwood in 1927 (they lost in 1926)

or Geelong in 1931 (they lost in 1930)

or Richmond in 1932 (they lost in 1931)

or Richmond in 1934 (they lost in 1933)

or Essendon in 1942 (they lost in 1941)

or Richmond in 1943 (they lost in 1942)

or Essendon in 1949 (they lost in 1948)

or Collingwood in 1953 (they lost in 1942)

or Melbourne in 1955 (they lost in 1954)

or Melbourne in 1959 (they lost in 1958)

or St Kilda in 1966 (they lost in 1965)

or Carlton in 1970 (they lost in 1969)

or Richmond in 1973 (they lost in 1972)

or North Melbourne in 1975 (they lost in 1974)

or Hawthorn in 1976 (they lost in 1975)

or North Melbourne in 1977 (they lost in 1976)

Or Essendon in 1984 (they lost in 1983)

or Hawthorn in 1986 (they lost in 1985)

Or Hawthorn in 1988 (they lost in 1987)

Or West Coast in 1992 (they lost in 1991)

or North Melbourne in 1999 (they lost in 1998)

or West Coast in 2006 (they lost in 2005)

or Geelong in 2009 (they lost in 2008)

or Hawthorn in 2013 (they lost in 2012)

 

So, at least once in every decade since the end of the 19th century.

[Katrina Dee Fan 2,737]

10 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

So, at least once in every decade since the end of the 19th century.

Pretty much :)

[Demon17 5,047]

3 hours ago, Katrina Dee Fan said:

Except for Collingwood in 1902 (they lost in 1901)

or Fitzory in 1904 (they lost in 1903)

or Collingwood in 1919 (they lost in 1918)

or Richmond in 1920 (they lost in 1919)

or Collingwood in 1927 (they lost in 1926)

or Geelong in 1931 (they lost in 1930)

or Richmond in 1932 (they lost in 1931)

or Richmond in 1934 (they lost in 1933)

or Essendon in 1942 (they lost in 1941)

or Richmond in 1943 (they lost in 1942)

or Essendon in 1949 (they lost in 1948)

or Collingwood in 1953 (they lost in 1942)

or Melbourne in 1955 (they lost in 1954)

or Melbourne in 1959 (they lost in 1958)

or St Kilda in 1966 (they lost in 1965)

or Carlton in 1970 (they lost in 1969)

or Richmond in 1973 (they lost in 1972)

or North Melbourne in 1975 (they lost in 1974)

or Hawthorn in 1976 (they lost in 1975)

or North Melbourne in 1977 (they lost in 1976)

Or Essendon in 1984 (they lost in 1983)

or Hawthorn in 1986 (they lost in 1985)

Or Hawthorn in 1988 (they lost in 1987)

Or West Coast in 1992 (they lost in 1991)

or North Melbourne in 1999 (they lost in 1998)

or West Coast in 2006 (they lost in 2005)

or Geelong in 2009 (they lost in 2008)

or Hawthorn in 2013 (they lost in 2012)

 

My gf quote tied in with my original assertion on the final 8 system which commenced 1994.

Hard to have a final 8 with only 12 teams.

So my broad comment was wrong and should have noted the 4 cases since 94.. Or noted 86% of the period saw gf losers not make it next season.

Still reckon the 8 is set. But lets see in round 24. And again the tiges progress will be fascinating. 

Nice work back to the 19th century though Katrina.

[Fanatique Demon 2,623]

4 hours ago, Katrina Dee Fan said:

Except for Collingwood in 1902 (they lost in 1901)

or Fitzory in 1904 (they lost in 1903)

or Collingwood in 1919 (they lost in 1918)

or Richmond in 1920 (they lost in 1919)

or Collingwood in 1927 (they lost in 1926)

or Geelong in 1931 (they lost in 1930)

or Richmond in 1932 (they lost in 1931)

or Richmond in 1934 (they lost in 1933)

or Essendon in 1942 (they lost in 1941)

or Richmond in 1943 (they lost in 1942)

or Essendon in 1949 (they lost in 1948)

or Collingwood in 1953 (they lost in 1942)

or Melbourne in 1955 (they lost in 1954)

or Melbourne in 1959 (they lost in 1958)

or St Kilda in 1966 (they lost in 1965)

or Carlton in 1970 (they lost in 1969)

or Richmond in 1973 (they lost in 1972)

or North Melbourne in 1975 (they lost in 1974)

or Hawthorn in 1976 (they lost in 1975)

or North Melbourne in 1977 (they lost in 1976)

Or Essendon in 1984 (they lost in 1983)

or Hawthorn in 1986 (they lost in 1985)

Or Hawthorn in 1988 (they lost in 1987)

Or West Coast in 1992 (they lost in 1991)

or North Melbourne in 1999 (they lost in 1998)

or West Coast in 2006 (they lost in 2005)

or Geelong in 2009 (they lost in 2008)

or Hawthorn in 2013 (they lost in 2012)

 

Otherwise correct?

[MadAsHell 4,209]

13 minutes ago, Fanatique Demon said:

Otherwise correct?

60% of the time, it works every time!

[Rob Mac...... 635]

4 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

So, at least once in every decade since the end of the 19th century.

Actually an average of twice per decade. 

[Watson11 2,210]

On 5/15/2022 at 2:55 PM, Demon17 said:

Great example. 1 out of 240 chances over 30 years.

The premise still stands with the odd outlier.

Sorry, but the 8 has changed after round 9 every year except 3.  The last time it didn’t change was 2016. Even the premier has come from outside the 8 on or after round 9 on 2 occasions in the last 20 years!  

[Big Col 1,319]

To be fair to D17, the reference in the OP is only to the 'modern era of football', and every MFC supporter knows that the modern era only started in 2021.
The period between 1965-2020 are now known only as the Dark Ages.

 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 5/15/2022 at 9:08 AM, Lucifers Hero said:

Nope, its based on how many of their 2020 GF team still there and with the exception of Riewoldt and Cotchin in good form.  Riewoldt can still turn in a high scoring game. 

They have unreal finals experience and belief.  They know how to turn it on in the finals even if they haven't had the best H & A season.

Not saying they will but even if they aren't top 4 they are the most likely to give the finals a good shake outside the top 3.  And on their day they can roll any of the top 3.

There's this common belief that Richmond can win from anywhere in the Top 8. I don't know where this comes from. They won from 3rd in 2017, won all 3 finals which were all were played at the MCG. Adelaide finished top that year but of course had to play away in the Grand Final. In 2018 Richmond finished 1st, won their Qualifying Final, but lost the Prelim to Collingwood (both matches at the MCG). In 2019 Richmond beat Brisbane at the Gabba in a Qualifying Final (Brisbane a young team that went out in straight sets), and won both a Prelim and the Grand Final at the MCG (against GWS who had come from 6th). 2020 in Queensland, Richmond lost a QF to Brisbane, then won 3 matches, including a close PF in the wet against Port Adelaide in Adelaide and the GF against Geelong. So they have won a couple of Interstate Finals, but finished 3rd in each of their Premiership years and have never come from outside the Top 3.  Most losing QF team wins their SF the following week so why does everyone think Richmond can win multiple away finals from outside the Top 4 and potentially win the GF? And their 2022 team isn't a patch on their 2019-20 teams IMO.   

On 5/15/2022 at 10:56 AM, Dr. Gonzo said:

Dogs have a very hard run home (2 d half of the season). This stretch of matches is their easiest for the year, I don't see how they make finals.

It doesn't look that tough to me. They play Geelong, GWS & Hawthorn twice (you'd expect them to win 5 of those 6 games on form). The other 7 are against Brisbane (away), Fremantle (home), Gold Coast (home), Melbourne (home), St. Kilda (home), Sydney (away), West Coast (away). Maybe 4 of 7, which would bring them to 13 wins, 9 losses, definitely Top 8.

11 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Here are Melbourne's expected margin and win percentage for each game based on my model. Melbourne are favourites in all but the last game against Brisbane at this stage. The 3.6 losses is based on the win probability for each match - so a 50-50 game is counted as 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses.

By the way, Melbourne's probability of winning all 22 games is 3.8%! 😁

I'll confidently predict we have more chance of winning 22 games than 18.4.

[radar 1,865]

Saw Gaza’s On The Couch 

Perth game not mentioned, but every other review features a “like Melbourne” or “except Melbourne” or “Melbourne lesson” 

[Lucifers Hero 38,967]

8 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

There's this common belief that Richmond can win from anywhere in the Top 8. I don't know where this comes from. They won from 3rd in 2017, won all 3 finals which were all were played at the MCG. Adelaide finished top that year but of course had to play away in the Grand Final. In 2018 Richmond finished 1st, won their Qualifying Final, but lost the Prelim to Collingwood (both matches at the MCG). In 2019 Richmond beat Brisbane at the Gabba in a Qualifying Final (Brisbane a young team that went out in straight sets), and won both a Prelim and the Grand Final at the MCG (against GWS who had come from 6th). 2020 in Queensland, Richmond lost a QF to Brisbane, then won 3 matches, including a close PF in the wet against Port Adelaide in Adelaide and the GF against Geelong. So they have won a couple of Interstate Finals, but finished 3rd in each of their Premiership years and have never come from outside the Top 3.  Most losing QF team wins their SF the following week so why does everyone think Richmond can win multiple away finals from outside the Top 4 and potentially win the GF? And their 2022 team isn't a patch on their 2019-20 teams IMO.  

If Rich play Carlton, Geelong, Saints or Melbourne in a final the game will be at the G.  They have shown they can win finals at the Gabba. 

With their draw they have a good chance of finishing 4th.  Even finishing outside the top 4, in 2020 they had to win play 4 finals to the flag.

I'm not all gung-ho for them winning finals or the GF just saying they have the ingredients to win a few, perhaps more than other teams except the Dees.  After all the GF is played at the G and neither Freo or Lions have a good record their. 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[rpfc 28,046]

Only two things scare me; and one is playing the Tigers in a final at the G…

[Guest]

Just now, rpfc said:

Only two things scare me; and one is playing the Tigers in a final at the G…

Is the other one spiders? 

[58er 5,924]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

If Rich play Carlton, Geelong, Saints or Melbourne in a final the game will be at the G.  They have shown they can win finals at the Gabba. 

With their draw they have a good chance of finishing 4th.  Even finishing outside the top 4, in 2020 they had to win 4 finals to the flag.

I'm not all gung-ho for them winning finals or the GF just saying they have the ingredients to win a few, perhaps more than other teams except the Dees.  After all the GF is played at the G and neither Freo or Lions have a good record their. 

In 2020 they did not have to win 4 Finals to get Flag but after losing the Qual Final at the Gabba to Lions they then won next 3 at Metricon Adelaide Oval and then the flag at the Gabba. 

[Watson11 2,210]

2 hours ago, rpfc said:

Only two things scare me; and one is playing the Tigers in a final at the G…

I'm not scared by any team that leaks more scores per inside 50 that West Coast and North.

	% Scores Conceded i50s
Melbourne	37.2
Brisbane	38.9
Fremantle	38
St Kilda	40.1
Geelong	41.2
Western Bulldogs	43.8
Hawthorn	44.1
Sydney	42.5
GWS	45
Collingwood	44
Gold Coast	43.2
Port Adelaide	42.3
Adelaide	44.5
West Coast	47.2
Carlton	44.3
Essendon	47.7
North Melbourne	47.3
Richmond	48

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Watson11

[Lucifers Hero 38,967]

Some interesting games coming up: 

• The top 4 teams each play 7 of the remaining 13 games against current top 8 teams. 
• We have the most vs top 4 teams: 5 games
• Bulldogs and Port also have 7 games vs the current top 8.
• Swans have 6, Tigers and Saints have 5 and Cats have 3.

Lots of 8-pt games and potential for ladder position changes, mostly in the 4th to 8th spot or an outside chance of 9th/10th (WBD, Port) sneaking into the 8. 

[WheeloRatings 1,159]

13 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I'll confidently predict we have more chance of winning 22 games than 18.4.

Well yes, I have them most likely to finish with 19 wins, followed by 18 then 20. On average 18.4 wins.

[durango 1,989]

At round 9 last year the 8 inculded West Coast and Richmond who dropped out for Essendon and GWS.

I believe this year some teams may make way for Port and WB if they get on a roll.

This weeks matches will be critical for Port annd WB in their quest to make the final 8, if Port beats Geelong at Geelong they may become the team to dropout?

[Katrina Dee Fan 2,737]

22 hours ago, Demon17 said:

My gf quote tied in with my original assertion on the final 8 system which commenced 1994.

Hard to have a final 8 with only 12 teams.

So my broad comment was wrong and should have noted the 4 cases since 94.. Or noted 86% of the period saw gf losers not make it next season.

Still reckon the 8 is set. But lets see in round 24. And again the tiges progress will be fascinating. 

Nice work back to the 19th century though Katrina.

Sorry to be pedantic, but the top 8 system didn't start until 2000 :) in 1994 they went to a top 6 (prior to that it was a top 5 for a period of time after much of the competition it being a top 4).

 

[Nascent 8,630]

7 hours ago, rpfc said:

Only two things scare me; and one is playing the Tigers in a final at the G…

 

6 hours ago, Skuit said:

Is the other one spiders? 

My money is on anatidaephobia.

[Demonstone 21,751]

I had to look that up.  Very good!

[WheeloRatings 1,159]

41 minutes ago, Katrina Dee Fan said:

Sorry to be pedantic, but the top 8 system didn't start until 2000 :) in 1994 they went to a top 6 (prior to that it was a top 5 for a period of time after much of the competition it being a top 4).

 

No it went to a top 6 in 1991 and top 8 in 1994. The AFL moved to the current final eight system in 2000 (from the McIntyre final eight system used from 1994-1999).

[daisycutter 29,303]

30 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

I had to look that up.  Very good!

you'd like tigriphobia then. 😹

[Deepfreeze 208]

On 5/16/2022 at 7:46 AM, Fork 'em said:

Well .... According to history it won't matter who's in the 8.
The last 2 times Melbourne went 9-0 they won the flag.
 




 

 

I took this snap to stir someone last season.

Suppose a few of these were 9 on the trot as opposed to 9-0

 

 

[Demonstone 21,751]

1 hour ago, daisycutter said:

you'd like tigriphobia then.

I might if I could find out what it means.