Roos + Lyon - On The Couch

[Demon trucker 1,776]

12 minutes ago, Scoop Junior said:

Since you love your averages, how about this:

2016 - 10 wins

2017 - 12 wins

2018 - 14 wins (plus two finals)

So we average 12 H&A wins over a 3-year period, which is then followed up by a record of 5-12 after 17 rounds in 2019. 2018 is far closer to the average than 2019 so far.

Further, if we include this year, our record under Goodwin (2017 onwards) is 33 wins from 64 games (51.6%). 2018 win-loss record was 16 from 25 (64%) and 2019 is 5 from 17 (29.4%). 2018 is therefore much closer to the mean than 2019.

This is only including wins, not those should-have-won games like Geelong (twice) last year, Port last year, Eagles (twice) this year and Crows this year.

At this point in time there is no reasonable basis to say 2018 was an aberration.

I was going to say the same thing, last year did not come out of the blue, this year is a aberration but, the end of this season can tell us nothing, it's all about round 12 next year, that is the only realistic point where Goodwin can be judged and executed.

[McQueen 17,864]

I’ve just redirected my flight to Brisbane on Sunday to come via Melbourne on Saturday. All this negative media is a recipe for the best performance by the team this year at our favourite ground at the Dockands. 

That said, I’m being quite sensible and coming over with low expectations. 

??

[Demon3 2,541]

When a 22 point win is our biggest of the season and our others are 5pts V Carlton and 1pt v Gold Coast which was a miracle we won it. The numbers dont lie. The club is bogged in Mediocrity, there is no leadership, we have got so much wrong it makes you appreciate last year even more that they were able to do what they did. 

Im sick of it, a Loss in the Prelim is a s close as we will ever get and its borderline disgraceful what they serve up.

Lyon is right, we are no good. And now we will see what the club is prepared to do to get it right. Good clubs will not stand for this, but we do, we accept it as par for the course, where is the dramatic circuit breaker going to come from..just for a minute imagine this apathy continues next year.. its criminal what the club continues to spew out and any one can argue all they like, the rot set in the minute after the Prelim loss and seemingly very little was done to review it, recruiting plan was wrong, management of players injuries was horrendous, the messaging all year about excuses has been amateur and embarrassing, the coaching has been sub standard, stubborn and gone backwards.

Goodwin is stubborn, he needs to relax and let others in. Or he will be out very quickly. In my 35 years of supporting the club, in some brutallly bad eras, i cant remember feeling this angry about them, The Neeld era was shameful but i felt sorry for everyone that it didn't work, this time I'm angry and losing patience with footy. 

[Sir Why You Little 34,614]

6 minutes ago, Scoop Junior said:

Since you love your averages, how about this:

2016 - 10 wins

2017 - 12 wins

2018 - 14 wins (plus two finals)

So we average 12 H&A wins over a 3-year period, which is then followed up by a record of 5-12 after 17 rounds in 2019. 2018 is far closer to the average than 2019 so far.

Further, if we include this year, our record under Goodwin (2017 onwards) is 33 wins from 64 games (51.6%). 2018 win-loss record was 16 from 25 (64%) and 2019 is 5 from 17 (29.4%). 2018 is therefore much closer to the mean than 2019.

This is only including wins, not those should-have-won games like Geelong (twice) last year, Port last year, Eagles (twice) this year and Crows this year.

At this point in time there is no reasonable basis to say 2018 was an aberration.

The depth of our fall and the complete lack of basic skills this year gives some cred to Lyon’s use of the word...

He may well have used it as a direct stab at the club, to get their shiit together too, and as a past Captain and fine player G. Lyon is allowed to do....

[Demon3 2,541]

Also if you first response on this is to bag G. Lyon rather than take in what he says you are in serious denial IMO. Let your personal hatred of him go for selecting Neeld, its a long time ago, Kernahan appointed Malthouse, it was just as big a disaaster, but i dont see Carlton fans constantly smash one of their past greats. History is littered with it.. you think they do it on purpose, you think they want to ruin the club, you think they want to make a bad decision.. 

Its time to move on everyone, the club is the concern now, not who says what.

[Mel Bourne 3,706]

50 minutes ago, binman said:

Good. Do that. The dees don't need fans who want to bail when they are most needed. 

Not that I plan on bailing myself, but I understand why some might. 

Yes, clubs need their supporters in times of need (which in the case of MFC is seemingly always). 

Supporters need premierships though. 

MFC supporters have been in a dysfunctional, all give/no take relationship for an infamously long time now, and I don’t blame some for wanting to pin a letter on the fridge. 

[Docs Demons 1,665]

We need to be realists here.We are struggling big time and whilst Sunday's effort against last years premiers wasn't all that bad the fact is we are playing, due to necessity to many blokes that at present are VFL players. The likes of the Wagners, ANB, Lockhart, Pruess, Petty and Hunt may well become good players but are playing VFL standard footy at the moment. That's 7 players that basically are not AFL players.. Throw in Trac and to a lesser extent Brayshaw & Jones who are not playing to their potential plus our overall skill level then no wonder we are ordinary. Hopeful we can put in some decent efforts to finish off year and have TMac, Melksham, Smiths, Weid, KK and Vandenberg back next year plus some decent list changes and recruiting I am hopeful we will bounce back. Unlike some will still buy my membership.

[Fork 'em 6,538]

It's not that this year or last year was an aberration.
The problem is that it's Standard Operating Procedure for the MFC.
Incremental improvements followed by mind bending drop offs. 
Wins against solid opposition to fold against the weaker.
2 finals wins and then hardly scoring in a prelim.
Finishing 4th and dropping to 16th.
That's what drives most supporters including Lyon crazy.
He's just got a bigger forum than this to share his disgust.
And I value his opinion on football above all the happy clappers around here.
 

[praha 10,293]

2 minutes ago, watchtheeyes said:

Lyon was overly emotional, which is fine as a supporter and really was just expressing our collective frustration. But I don't buy the aberration bit.

You can't fluke 2 finals wins against quality opposition. You can't fluke a percentage of greater than 130% - that is a reflection of a large body of work. An aberration is a couple of wins against good side, not a whole season.

I also think about it this way.. What makes more sense? That ordinary (not good) players dramatically outperform their abilities over a sustained period of time (season 2018) or very good players underperform their abilities over a sustained period. To my mind it is extremely difficult to perform at 140% of your abilities even once, let alone a whole season. But it is very easy to perform at 70%, for a whole host of reasons.

The reasons? I've said it before, I'm also a subscriber of the preseason, injuries and impact on confidence theory. But I'm also open-minded to the  coaching criticism. Fritsch being played out of position ALL year is just one of several examples of that.

Looking forward to 2020...

Yes you're right but "aberration" does not <=> "fluke". It simply means "not normal", against the grain. Last year was a season filled with many highs but also quite a few lows that, in retrospect, reflected a game style that was far too volatile and predictable to be viable long term. Percentage is a great indicator of quality and what it reflected last year was that we won games by 30% more than our average losing margin. We also know that teams with a percentage of < 110% tend to not go very far in finals. The lowest % of the every premier in the 2000s and 2010 was 115% in 2016 by Bulldogs and in 2005 by the Swans. Basically you need a % of at least 120% to win a flag based on historical performances. Last year we were premiership caliber collectively across the season but considering the drop off this year we need to analyse where and how it's dropped off.

I've had a look at every finals team dating back to 2001 and looked at their % rise or fall the following season. Here are the largest drops, season-on-season. This looks at % difference, not the total difference.

Carlton 2001-2002	-43.13%	5th-16th
West Coast 2007-2008	-41.04%	3rd-15th
Melbourne 2018-2019	-38.66%	5th-17th
Richmond 2015-2016	-35.42%	5th-13th
Fremantle 2015-2016	-37.41	1st-16th

So, as an example Carlton's % dropped 43.13% in 2002 (73.13%) vs their 2001 % (128.60%).

Of those teams, only Richmond bounced back to play finals the following year. WC had two more years down and "won" the wooden spoon in 2010 (only because we piped them for the spoon in 2008). 

So historically we have seen one of the most significant drop offs this century year-on-year after a finals performance. 

• Carlton - 3 wins in 2002
• West Coast - 4 wins in 2008
• Melbourne - 5 wins in 2019
• Richmond - 8 wins in 2016
• Fremantle - 4 wins in 2016

Richmond being the obvious outlier here, having bounced back to win a flag.

We'll know in 8 months time whether we're a Richmond or a Carlton.

[Demon3 2,541]

5 minutes ago, Docs Demons said:

We need to be realists here.We are struggling big time and whilst Sunday's effort against last years premiers wasn't all that bad the fact is we are playing, due to necessity to many blokes that at present are VFL players. The likes of the Wagners, ANB, Lockhart, Pruess, Petty and Hunt may well become good players but are playing VFL standard footy at the moment. That's 7 players that basically are not AFL players.. Throw in Trac and to a lesser extent Brayshaw & Jones who are not playing to their potential plus our overall skill level then no wonder we are ordinary. Hopeful we can put in some decent efforts to finish off year and have TMac, Melksham, Smiths, Weid, KK and Vandenberg back next year plus some decent list changes and recruiting I am hopeful we will bounce back. Unlike some will still buy my membership.

Good points but toplay Devils advocate here: 

AVB - Probaly done

KK - Wont make it - hasnt yet, why would he now

TMac - Showed nothing to suggest he is the saviour - Mirros the club as a whole

Weid - Other similar players in comp have rocketed past him in development

Melk - Cant hang our hat on a HFF.

Joel Smith - kid has played 11 games.

[SPC 2,860]

8 minutes ago, Docs Demons said:

We need to be realists here.We are struggling big time and whilst Sunday's effort against last years premiers wasn't all that bad the fact is we are playing, due to necessity to many blokes that at present are VFL players. The likes of the Wagners, ANB, Lockhart, Pruess, Petty and Hunt may well become good players but are playing VFL standard footy at the moment. That's 7 players that basically are not AFL players.. Throw in Trac and to a lesser extent Brayshaw & Jones who are not playing to their potential plus our overall skill level then no wonder we are ordinary. Hopeful we can put in some decent efforts to finish off year and have TMac, Melksham, Smiths, Weid, KK and Vandenberg back next year plus some decent list changes and recruiting I am hopeful we will bounce back. Unlike some will still buy my membership.

I wouldn't say Hunt, Petty and Lockhart are playing VFL standard footy. All 3 well and truly deserve their spot in our team, even with key players out through injury. 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,522]

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The drums are starting to beat.

We all thought this was an aberration and that post bye we would start to show recovery looking forward to 2020.

Post bye has merely repeated pre bye. To bemoan no forwards when the forwards weren't kicking 5 goals a match between them is merely another excuse.

Goodwin's tenure is unravelling quickly.

 

 

Since the bye we've beaten Freo and Carlton, pushed the reigning premier and the Bulldogs and got Run over playing away against the team sitting 2nd on the ladder.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

26 minutes ago, Demon3 said:

Also if you first response on this is to bag G. Lyon rather than take in what he says you are in serious denial IMO. Let your personal hatred of him go for selecting Neeld, its a long time ago, Kernahan appointed Malthouse, it was just as big a disaaster, but i dont see Carlton fans constantly smash one of their past greats. History is littered with it.. you think they do it on purpose, you think they want to ruin the club, you think they want to make a bad decision.. 

Its time to move on everyone, the club is the concern now, not who says what.

Agree on all points.

But careful, you'll be called a wrist-slasher by the happy-go-luckies.

[SFebes 4,692]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Since the bye we've beaten Freo and Carlton, pushed the reigning premier and the Bulldogs and got Run over playing away against the team sitting 2nd on the ladder.

We also should have beaten WCE in Perth and Adel in Darwin, form is better, execution is not, but that happens with no depth.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Since the bye we've beaten Freo and Carlton, pushed the reigning premier and the Bulldogs and got Run over playing away against the team sitting 2nd on the ladder.

Not exactly diving into detail regarding those games are you.

I wonder why.

[Moonshadow 16,274]

1 hour ago, picket fence said:

Unless I see some tangible improvements for the rest of the year I'll be keeping my hard earned in my pockets

Fence sitting on the fence???

[binman 38,588]

3 minutes ago, praha said:

 

So historically we have seen one of the most significant drop offs this century year-on-year after a finals performance. 

• Carlton - 3 wins in 2002
• West Coast - 4 wins in 2008
• Melbourne - 5 wins in 2019
• Richmond - 8 wins in 2016
• Fremantle - 4 wins in 2016

Richmond being the obvious outlier here, having bounced back to win a flag.

We'll know in 8 months time whether we're a Richmond or a Carlton.

Perception is a funny thing. You use this information to mount a case how bad our season has been.

But that info more accurately reflects what PJ said about linear improvement being rare in tbe AFL and cautioning dees fans not to expect it.

5 clubs in 19 years have fallen back badly after making finals. That is statically significant. We are third on tbat list and we still have 5 games to go so might even get to the tiger's 8 wins.

And of course the tiger's famously won in 2017. So one of the 4 clubs (25% if you like) won a flag the following year after falling away. Interesting. 

I'll bet london to a brick the tiger's equivalent of demonland had the same number of card burning, nervous nellies wanting to sack that  yank chick and big Bennie gale and get rid of that bombers filth hardwick. And the same number of posters calling for calm and rationality.

History look rather kinder on the latter group.

[BillyBoy 71]

I rarely post but often find the conversation interesting.

I have been a supporter since the late 1950s. I saw the 1964 Grand Final as a young boy. I go to about 16 games a year (from Newcastle, NSW!) I think I understand the game quite well.

But what I have seen this year (and last for that matter) are the following consistent facts:

1. Midfield gets the ball a lot but kicking delivery is very poor.

2. Mad-style handballs often to disadvantage instead of kicking.

3. Kicking accuracy in front of goal has been poor - set shots.

4. On-ball players often jogging whereas I see other teams' players running hard in similar situations.

5. Players regularly and persistently played out of position - this is a coaching decision. And inflexibility during games when problems are clear (see also point 7).

6. Chaotic bull-charge game style but not commensurate with the skill levels of the players. Would need very fast forward line and excellent kicking delivery which is not present.

7. Less-skilled players promoted in selection and persisted with when other more skillful players are left in the seconds, and, when they do get a chance in the AFL, their confidence or fitness is low.

8. High injury count - probably related to the chaotic game plan.

9. Consistently poor drafting and/or recruitment choices and poor development of top draft choices (with exceptions).

Thus, I do think 2018 was an aberration and agree with Gary Lyon. MFC does not have the sophistication of player skills that the higher level teams seem to have and our seeming game strategies are incommensurate with the skills we do have.

I have also never been impressed with the senior coach. He appears wooden and inflexible from where I sit.

Edited July 23, 2019 by BillyBoy

[Diamond_Jim 11,856]

an interesting take on this topic would be to ask if any player has genuinely improved under Goodwin's coaching?

Harmes.. yes and maybe Brayshaw (the potential was already there perhaps) and Salem but hard to think of too many others.

[Demon trucker 1,776]

15 minutes ago, Demon3 said:

Also if you first response on this is to bag G. Lyon rather than take in what he says you are in serious denial IMO. Let your personal hatred of him go for selecting Neeld, its a long time ago, Kernahan appointed Malthouse, it was just as big a disaaster, but i dont see Carlton fans constantly smash one of their past greats. History is littered with it.. you think they do it on purpose, you think they want to ruin the club, you think they want to make a bad decision.. 

Its time to move on everyone, the club is the concern now, not who says what.

The knee jerker be clam Panicking never helped anyone, you just have to look at the collingwood and Richmond examples, it takes time to learn to be a good coach, any way too many clubs are looking for coaches, sack Goodwin and good chances you replace him with another L plate coach that's no better, all Master coaches come out of hard times.  Alastair Clarkson did not just come out as a master coach, his first 3 years were in the bottom 4, then finals then a premiership, then missing finals, then the master coach was made not born. If the club was to move Goodwin then we must offer clarkson or hardwick a godfather offer anyone else is just wallpapering over the cracks. 

[ArtificialWisdom 3,886]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Since the bye we've beaten Freo and Carlton, pushed the reigning premier and the Bulldogs and got Run over playing away against the team sitting 2nd on the ladder.

Anyone who understands anything about footy can see that aside from a 15 minute Eric Hipwood purple patch we have been playing much better, controlled footy since the bye. But that's not translating into scores... or into results. Just ask Brendan Bolton how well honourable losses worked for him.

On merit we should be 4-1 after the bye, but instead, without the ability to finish we are 2-3 and at risk of the wheels falling off. We are demonstrating football that could win any of the last 5 (Rich perhaps the exception) but with our poor finishing we could lose all of them. And that leaves Goodwin in a very vulnerable place

[binman 38,588]

1 minute ago, Diamond_Jim said:

an interesting take on this topic would be to ask if any player has genuinely improved under Goodwin's coaching?

Harmes.. yes and maybe Brayshaw (the potential was already there perhaps) and Salem but hard to think of too many others.

Gawn has become an all Australian lock. Tmac had a stellar 2018. Hannan also had a great 2018. Oliver has improved. Jetts had his best year in 2018. Hore has improved out of sight this year. Frost has had his best year this year. 

[Mel Bourne 3,706]

9 minutes ago, BillyBoy said:

I rarely post but often find the conversation interesting.

I have been a supporter since the late 1950s. I saw the 1964 Grand Final as a young boy. I go to about 16 games a year (from Newcastle, NSW!) I think I understand the game quite well.

But what I have seen this year (and last for that matter) are the following consistent facts:

1. Midfield gets the ball a lot but kicking delivery is very poor.

2. Mad-style handballs often to disadvantage instead of kicking.

3. Kicking accuracy in front of goal has been poor - set shots.

4. On-ball players often jogging whereas I see other teams' players running hard in similar situations.

5. Players regularly and persistently played out of position - this is a coaching decision. And inflexibility during games when problems are clear (see also point 7).

6. Chaotic bull-charge game style but not commensurate with the skill levels of the players. Would need very fast forward line and excellent kicking delivery which is not present.

7. Less-skilled players promoted in selection and persisted with when other more skillful players are left in the seconds, and, when they do get a chance in the AFL, their confidence or fitness is low.

8. High injury count - probably related to the chaotic game plan.

9. Consistently poor drafting and/or recruitment choices and poor development of top draft choices (with exceptions).

Thus, I do think 2018 was an aberration and agree with Gary Lyon. MFC does not have the sophistication of player skills players that the higher level teams seem to have and our seeming game strategies are incommensurate with the skills we have.

I have also never been impressed with the senior coach. He appears wooden and inflexible from where I sit.

About as matter-of-fact as it gets.

You should post more Billy Boy. 

[Diamond_Jim 11,856]

1 minute ago, binman said:

Gawn has become an all Australian lock. Tmac had a stellar 2018. Hannan also had a great 2018. Oliver has improved. Jetts had his best year in 2018. Hore has improved out of sight this year. Frost has had his best year this year. 

2 of the four you have listed have gone nowhere in 2019.

Oliver.. improved... some would argue we are not developing a once in a decade talent.

I'll give you Frost and to a lesser extent Hore... he was a draft pick that went well... well done

[praha 10,293]

19 minutes ago, binman said:

Perception is a funny thing. You use this information to mount a case how bad our season has been.

But that info more accurately reflects what PJ said about linear improvement being rare in tbe AFL and cautioning dees fans not to expect it.

5 clubs in 19 years have fallen back badly after making finals. That is statically significant. We are third on tbat list and we still have 5 games to go so might even get to the tiger's 8 wins.

And of course the tiger's famously won in 2017. So one of the 4 clubs (25% if you like) won a flag the following year after falling away. Interesting. 

I'll bet london to a brick the tiger's equivalent of demonland had the same number of card burning, nervous nellies wanting to sack that  yank chick and big Bennie gale and get rid of that bombers filth hardwick. And the same number of posters calling for calm and rationality.

History look rather kinder on the latter group.

You're not wrong mate. I've been one of those skeptical of then "linear improvement". Improvement in context is tangible growth against any metric, any variable. Cross-reference them and you might find improvement in a team that wins fewer games year-on-year but has a % increase. That's just the top 5 btw. The average % drop for teams that miss finals is about -17% year on year. That's 39 teams. 22 saw a drop off of >17%. 9 of them played finals the following year. 

So, the odds are actually against us. We can look at it many different ways. I know for a fact Hardwick was badly under the pump. Much in the same way Thompson was in 2007. But they demonstrated fairly quickly that the outlier was the % drop, not the preceding rise. Hence my comment that in 8 months we'll know whether we're a Carlton or a Richmond. Statistically, when you see this type of drop off, you either find it's a trend that lasts over a few years, or there is a sharp spike upwards. So either this year's crash has normalised our place in the league, or the crash is the aberration and we'll rise to the top. Unfortunately, historically, there is very little in between those two extremes. I don't think anyone here is calling for Goodwin to be sacked right now. But the further we sink, the less time he has. 

You need to fail quickly in this league. Reboot and rebound. But if we're not good enough, cut our losses and start again. We need to figure that out sooner rather than later.

Edited July 23, 2019 by praha