MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 19

[Demonland 66,977]

NORTHERN EXPOSURE by Whispering Jack

If the late Jack Dyer were to describe the North Melbourne of 2017 he would no doubt call it "a good ordinary side". The Kangaroos started the season by losing the first five games on the trot before striking a purple patch during which they won four out of five (including a 10 goal thrashing of the Crows at Blundstone Arena and a hard fought 14 point victory over the Demons at the MCG). They then went on a downhill slide with a losing streak that now stands at seven games and sees them sitting equal last on the ladder, ahead only on percentage over the Brisbane Lions.

A very ordinary record indeed, although Captain Blood would have seen some good in it because the Roos have lost five of their games by less than a goal. They are now embarking on what can been seen as a rebuilding process, dropping or resting some of their stars and bringing in youth. The cynics among us might call this "tanking".

Melbourne, on the other hand, has been better than ordinary even if somewhat inconsistent so far this season. Part of the reason for the inconsistency has been put down to injuries and suspensions which have at times cut huge holes in the makeup of the team but, as we saw last week against Port Adelaide, when the A team is on the park it can compete with any other in the AFL.

Which brings us to the Demons' own losing streak of 16 straight games against the Kangaroos that stretches all of the way back to 2006 when a young Nathan Jones was just finding his way in the game. North has been good over most of that time and I would suggest that those wins were not really due to some magical advantage over Melbourne. Hoodoos and losing streaks only reflect this club's woeful standing over the past decade - it lost more often than not because it had inferior teams. As we've seen over the course of this season, that is no longer the case. Melbourne is on course for September action while North Melbourne is heading in the opposite direction.

The Kangaroos won their first ten matches last year including an early one where they eventually fell in against Melbourne at Blundstone Arena. They barely hung on to make the finals from which they made a quick exit. In 2017 they have been exposed like the emperor and his non-existent new clothes. Their cupboard is bare and I expect the Demons will also expose the so-called North Melbourne "hoodoo" this week in the same vein as the Hans Christian Anderson fable taught us that sometimes the things people believe in are nothing more than a myth.

THE GAME Melbourne v North Melbourne on Saturday 29 July, 2017 at Blundstone Arena at 1.45pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall North Melbourne 80 wins, Melbourne 83 wins 1 draw

At Blundstone Arena North Melbourne 1 win, Melbourne 0 wins

Last five times North Melbourne 5 wins, Melbourne 0 wins

The Coaches Scott 1 win, Goodwin 0 wins 

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel live at 1.45pm

RADIO - TBA

THE BETTING  

North Melbourne to win $2.85, Melbourne to win $1.43

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

North Melbourne 15.14.104 defeated Melbourne  13.12.90 at the MCG in Round 9 2017

The Demons started slowly and were 26 points down at the first break before closing to within two points at half time. North controlled the third term but Melbourne's again fought back to narrow the margin to two points midway through the last quarter before North kicked away. Todd Goldstein set up the win dominating the rucks with 61 hit outs.

THE TEAMS

NORTH MELBOURNE

B: Sam Durdin, Robbie Tarrant, Daniel Nielson 

HB: Aaron Mullett, Scott D. Thompson, Luke McDonald 

C: Shaun Atley, Sam Gibson, Ryan Clarke 

HF: Nathan Hrovat, Jarrad Waite, Majak Daw 

F: Shaun Higgins, Ben Brown, Taylor Garner 

FOLL: Braydon Preuss, Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington 

I/C: Trent Dumont, Declan Mountford, Jy Simpkin, Andrew Swallow  

EMG: Jed Anderson, Josh Williams,  Cameron Zurhaar 

 

IN: Braydon Preuss, Robbie Tarrant, Jack Ziebell 

 

OUT: Nick Larkey (knee), Josh Williams (omitted), Cameron Zurhaar (omitted) 

 

MELBOURNE

 

B: Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald, Neville Jetta 

HB: Christian Salem, Sam Frost, Michael Hibberd 

C: Jack Trengove, Jordan Lewis, Clayton Oliver 

HF: Christian Petracca, Jesse Hogan, Alex Neal-Bullen 

F: Jeff Garlett, Tom McDonald, Jack Watts 

FOLL: Max Gawn, Jack Viney, Mitch Hannan 

I/C: James Harmes, Jay Kennedy-Harris, 

Jake Melksham, Dom Tyson  

EMG: Corey Maynard, Cameron Pedersen,  Josh Wagner 

 

There's a certain amount of irony surrounding inferences of tanking raised about Melbourne's opponent for this week's clash in Hobart. No sooner had the Roos made their decision to drop former All Australian ruckman Todd Goldstein and rest skipper Jack Ziebell for last week's Essendon clash, than some segments of the media started raising eyebrows and when Robbie Tarrant was a late withdrawal, that was sufficient evidence for the commentariat that a conspiracy was on foot with the aim of securing soon to be out of contract GWS midfielder Josh Kelly. 

 

That sort of thinking is all too common in AFL circles and while it fills newspaper space and time on radio and television, it doesn't reflect reality. It dismisses the fact that North made a good fist of things and in fact led the Bombers until deep into the third quarter before the young side ran out of steam late in the game and it denies the club the right to blood young players late in a season when all hopes of playing finals have gone.

 

The Kangaroos have dominated the Demons for over a decade and they will be jealously guarding their record, particularly in front of the people of Hobart who they dearly want to bring into their fold. For this game, they have brought back Ziebell and  Tarrant along with ruckman Braydon Preuss who many at North consider a better ruckman than Goldstein. Three youngsters go out of the side and the changes automatically give the "home" side a much better look.

 

With the weather likely to be a factor (showers are predicted), anyone who really thinks that North are tanking has another thing coming - this week looms as a real danger game. Melbourne did fade last week after its opening blitz saw it go to a 44 point lead late in the second quarter and with four players returning from injury, this might be understandable 

 

The Roos will be coming into the game with the mindset that they can beat the Demons having prevailed earlier in the year on the MCG when despite losing the disposal count, clearances and contested possessions, they managed to prevail. However, back then they had Goldstein winning in the ruck and key forwards Ben Brown and Mason Wood booting eight goals between them. On Saturday, Goldstein and Wood will not be on the field and the cynics might also add that North is unlikely to be the beneficiary of a free kick count like the 22-10 that gave them the advantage of almost an extra player.

 

Earlier this season they had a big victory over Adelaide when the windy conditions played havoc with the game at Blundstone Arena but they have also lost this year at the venue where they once reigned supreme with eight consecutive victories from 2013-16. 

 

The end of another winning run is now on the cards against the Demons who have been strong in the clearances and contested-possession rankings all season and, with so much at stake, I expect their long running series of losses to become yet another part of history for the club on Saturday night.

 

Melbourne by 25 points.

[Wrecker45 3,378]

$1.43 in the betting is a steal. They're not concerned about winning and we're playing for top 4.

[Dees2014 2,377]

Think the game is in Hobart...

[True Heart 115]

Won't be a walk in the park by any means. What's the bet that they re-call Goldstein and Thomas who generally give us headaches. Huge game, a lot on the line. A must win for finals! 

[Dirts 429]

25 minutes ago, True Heart said:

Won't be a walk in the park by any means. What's the bet that they re-call Goldstein and Thomas who generally give us headaches. Huge game, a lot on the line. A must win for finals! 

Won't be an easy game as such. Though, if Gawn is good, we should punch them. Waite is always a concern too. 

 

Love be to see petracca light up Blundstone, surely he is due for a big game! Win this and we will be playing finals!

[old55 21,874]

35 minutes ago, True Heart said:

Won't be a walk in the park by any means. What's the bet that they re-call Goldstein and Thomas who generally give us headaches. Huge game, a lot on the line. A must win for finals! 

and Tarrant and Ziebell

Edited July 25, 2017 by Fifty-5

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

4 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

and Tarrant and Ziebell

They will probably un-retire Boomer just to really mess with us.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

This has danger game written all over it.

We should win, and do it comfortably, but the Roos are our bogey side.  We will need to play well to win.

[old dee 23,256]

6 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

This has danger game written all over it.

We should win, and do it comfortably, but the Roos are our bogey side.  We will need to play well to win.

We have squashed a few of those this year Wiseblood.

This one has only a few days to go. It won't be easy but we will win.

[Copuchas 756]

Weather now looking crap - 80% chance of rain from 1pm all the way through the rest of the afternoon.  Guess that may take Brown and Waite out as threats but it also significantly reduces the chances of a big percentage boosting win....which we need.

[DubDee 22,007]

North tanked last week for sure but they will set themselves up for this and will not want to lose their advantage over us

a rested Ziebell is back in. Tarrant in, and Marley Williams and Wood could be back. Goldy could also return

will be a test of our maturity if we can get up for this game with little hype around it 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,651]

If North were tanking there's no way known they'd bring back Tarrant, Ziebell and Wood. They would also 'manage' Ben Brown.

They'll be playing for the win, but lets hope we're far more motivated and desperate to get the 4 points than they are.

[old dee 23,256]

32 minutes ago, Copuchas said:

Weather now looking crap - 80% chance of rain from 1pm all the way through the rest of the afternoon.  Guess that may take Brown and Waite out as threats but it also significantly reduces the chances of a big percentage boosting win....which we need.

Just keep winning the rest will take care of itself.

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,909]

34 minutes ago, Copuchas said:

Weather now looking crap - 80% chance of rain from 1pm all the way through the rest of the afternoon.  Guess that may take Brown and Waite out as threats but it also significantly reduces the chances of a big percentage boosting win....which we need.

I think the opposite.

If you keep the opposition to a low score and win by 30-40 points it is actually quite good for percentage.

At the end of the day I'll be happy with a 1 point win!

[Demonland 66,977]

3 hours ago, Dees2014 said:

Think the game is in Hobart...

Corrected

[DemonLad5 1,642]

Danger game

[What 18,810]

Biggest fear is that there will be a howling gale in the first quarter and we lose the toss.

This ground is tricky.

 

[DemonOX 8,578]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

North tanked last week for sure but they will set themselves up for this and will not want to lose their advantage over us

a rested Ziebell is back in. Tarrant in, and Marley Williams and Wood could be back. Goldy could also return

will be a test of our maturity if we can get up for this game with little hype around it 

I really don't care who comes in for north.

We just have to beat them. 

[Copuchas 756]

1 hour ago, Is Dom Is Good said:

I think the opposite.

If you keep the opposition to a low score and win by 30-40 points it is actually quite good for percentage.

At the end of the day I'll be happy with a 1 point win!

You may think the opposite but the way the numbers work doesn't support your contention! 

Here is a table of our current points for / points against and percentage and two theoretical wins (one in a dry weather higher scoring, higher winning margin scenario [120 / 60] and one in a  low scoring wet weather scenario [70 / 40]).

A one point win will actually see our percentage go backwards.  

Our top four chances are very much linked to overtaking Richmond's, GWS' and the Swans percentage.

1618	1738	1688
1499	1559	1539
107.9	111.5	109.7

[Jaded No More 60,146]

Mission make Jaded eternally happy by beating the world's most despicable footy club is on. 

Come on Dees, I think it's about time. I hope we crush them, or alternatively win by a point after the siren due to a controversial free so I can watch Scott's head explode.

Edited July 26, 2017 by Jaded

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,909]

6 minutes ago, Copuchas said:

You may think the opposite but the way the numbers work doesn't support your contention! 

Here is a table of our current points for / points against and percentage and two theoretical wins (one in a dry weather higher scoring, higher winning margin scenario [120 / 60] and one in a  low scoring wet weather scenario [70 / 40]).

A one point win will actually see our percentage go backwards.  

Our top four chances are very much linked to overtaking Richmond's, GWS' and the Swans percentage.

1618	1738	1688
1499	1559	1539
107.9	111.5	109.7

Well obviously if you compare a 60 point win to a 30 point win that will occur.

I was more referring to the fact that if you have a lower scoring game and win by a similar margin it can work out better.

For example:

Win 110/70 & 70/40

1618        1728       1688

1499         1569      1539

107.9        110.1      109.7

We win all 5 games we make top 4 no matter what our percentage is.

[Copuchas 756]

28 minutes ago, Is Dom Is Good said:

Well obviously if you compare a 60 point win to a 30 point win that will occur.

I was more referring to the fact that if you have a lower scoring game and win by a similar margin it can work out better.

For example:

Win 110/70 & 70/40

1618        1728       1688

1499         1569      1539

107.9        110.1      109.7

We win all 5 games we make top 4 no matter what our percentage is.

The point being made was the lower probability of a higher margin win in adverse weather conditions and its concomitant impact on our percentage.

We will not make top 4 if we win all remaining games and Port, Swans and Richmond do the same unless our relative percentage position improves.

Edited July 26, 2017 by Copuchas
correction

[binman 39,623]

51 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Mission make Jaded eternally happy by beating the world's most despicable footy club is on. 

Come on Dees, I think it's about time. I hope we crush them, or alternatively win by a point after the siren due to a controversial free so I can watch Scott's head explode.

no not that. My head my explode in that scenario.

How about we [censored] them and they do not receive a single free kick all day and we receive a number of very lucky ones?

[chook fowler 18,595]

Ben Brown is the worry. 

[McQueen 17,864]

3 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

This has danger game written all over it.

We should win, and do it comfortably, but the Roos are our bogey side.  We will need to play well to win.

It'll add to the belief we'll need going into September.

Get it done, Dee's.