Changes v Hawthorn

[mauriesy 7,261]

It should be "I h8", shouldn't it?

[old dee 23,782]

17 minutes ago, hardtack said:

I hate how people write "to" as the number "2"... as 4 Matt Jones, I think he's played well enough lately to be 4given 4 the odd glitch.

I sure sign of the down grading of the language hardtack.

SMS has a lot to answer for oh  sorry 4

[stuie 7,374]

Just now, old dee said:

I sure sign of the down grading of the language hardtack.

Hmmmmmm......

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, mauriesy said:

I think it's just as easy to dismiss disposal efficiency to suit an argument as it is to promote it. It's really easy, when confronted with a good disposal efficiency of some player you are trying to shoot down, to simply say that "DE% is rubbish".

If an "efficient" disposal includes a disposal to a player who is immediately tackled, or who doesn't win the ball etc. that is true of every player on the list, not just the ones you think are 'clanger makers'. The important part of DE% is comparison, not raw disposals. Generally someone who is 75% is a better disposer thah someone who is 65%.

I think the 'comparison' aspect is important mauriesy but only when comparing like with like which is hard in today's game as very few players play the bulk of the match in a similar area of the ground for the entire match now. Watts is a great example. Used allover the park. So his time spent up forward, yes you could compare that portion of his efficiency with others' portions where they spend that part of their efficiency component up forward eg., Dawes or Hulk. But part of his DE% also includes time spent through the mid, down back and a small amount in the ruck now. All pose differing degrees of pressure on disposal so very hard with some players who are moved around a fair bit. Also some mids might be under a heavy tag vs others who aren't being checked as heavily etc.

If you want a really rough comparison then sure, mids with mids, forwards with forwards etc, but only those you know are spending the bulk of their time there. And how the hec would we know those percentages unless working for a club with access to Champion data or Champion itself!? Even they may not drill down this deep.

Also DE obviously has kicking efficiency in there somewhere which i think holds a bit more weight than the hand ball portion (hospital handballs, balls that hit an opponent at his shoe laces making it almost impossible to get the next efficient disposal away etc!) but unfortunately we are unable to get this carve out from Champion data.

In short i think comparisons can be made, but only across lines, and even then any such comparisons should be accompanied by a huge caveat.

[Nasher 33,607]

48 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

I take little notice of either side of the coin and I prefer to watch with my own eyes as they're all I need to decide whether or not someone has sound technique or is a good decision maker. DE is for the blind and stat lovers.

It's this kind of flippancy that makes arguing with you an exercise in tedium, steve.  I enjoy reading your posts, but you dismiss any kind of quantitative response with "whatever, I use my eyes".  

Not looking for an argument over it, just a casual observation.

[MrReims 313]

I'm extremely surprised at the amount of people calling for Wagner to be dropped and flabbergasted at at least suggestion that Oscar goes.

On a day of terrible turnovers and poor use these two actually had decent days! Oscar had at least two superb inside 50s that resulted in goals made only better by the fact we only kicked 9, Wagner didn't waste a single disposal that I saw plus he gave the clever kick to Watts for the winning goal!! 

Vince, TMac had poor disposal days but have the runs on the board to be forgiven

VB had a lot of mistakes in the first half but was instrumental in the second

Why blame poor Wagner?

[pineapple dee 2,892]

8 hours ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

 

I'm confident it would stand proudly in the face of critical analysis !!!

How about "Fear and Loathing in Romsey" or perhaps a remake of Psycho ???

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,693]

2 minutes ago, MrReims said:

I'm extremely surprised at the amount of people calling for Wagner to be dropped and flabbergasted at at least suggestion that Oscar goes.

On a day of terrible turnovers and poor use these two actually had decent days! Oscar had at least two superb inside 50s that resulted in goals made only better by the fact we only kicked 9, Wagner didn't waste a single disposal that I saw plus he gave the clever kick to Watts for the winning goal!! 

Vince, TMac had poor disposal days but have the runs on the board to be forgiven

VB had a lot of mistakes in the first half but was instrumental in the second

Why blame poor Wagner?

I like Wagner but I think he's run out of steam. He seems to me to be labouring and doesn't have the fluidity we saw earlier in the year. I also notice he seems to prefer handpassing to kicking which, for someone who I think is a good kick, suggests the possibility of a leg injury.

[DeeSpencer 25,497]

I can understand the urge to bring Weid in and play him close to goal and stick with the Watts, Dawes, Vanders trio across half forward and in the ruck. 

Dawes did his role to some extent and moved and marked better than he has been but still does very little. I'd have no problems with him staying in, but equally no problems with him out. I've seen enough of him to know if fully fit he might still be ok depth. He's not completely useless, but no more than that. So maybe it's Pedo's turn to show if he's better than Dawes or to put another midfielder in.

Matt Jones was Matt Jones, there's moments of good clear running and moments of nothing. Probably time to go back to Bugg. If Vince is injured then I'd give Grimes another shot. Either Bugg or Vince should tag Isaac Smith.

Jeff can't keep putting in such stinkers even if his defensive efforts were ok I'd go back to Kennedy here. Rotate Kennedy and Petracca from deep to half forward.

Ideally we'd upgrade all of Wagner, Harmes and Oscar. Wagner is consistently ok but struggling to impact. Harmes is doing some great things with run and getting the ball but can't use it well enough, but his speed is vital against the Hawks. Oscar played his best half but faded badly and still has such little commitment to the contest in the air and will struggle under the Hawks pressure. He's getting better with the ball, but his lack of intent to body spoil is an indictment on himself, Rawling's and the club. I'm far from convinced with any of the Casey defenders though so I'll await the VFL report. Hawthorn have lighter shorter mobile talls in Gunston, Sicily and O'Brien and then a ruckman. 

At this stage:

Out: Hogan (inj), Matt Jones, Garlett.  Potentially: Oscar Mc, Vince (inj), Dawes

In: Weideman, Bugg, Kennedy. Potentially: Garland/White, Grimes, Oliver/ANB (with Tracc and Brayshaw staying forward)

 

[Willmoy1947 4,081]

If it hasn't been mentioned before  I am saying  I think Clarrie will be in this week just based on him getting 6 free kicks (shows how much attention he's getting) aside from the number of possessions.

[DeeSpencer 25,497]

Just now, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I like Wagner but I think he's run out of steam. He seems to me to be labouring and doesn't have the fluidity we saw earlier in the year. I also notice he seems to prefer handpassing to kicking which, for someone who I think is a good kick, suggests the possibility of a leg injury.

He was labouring under the knee injury, think he's better now but I agree he's a bit out of steam. Isn't intercepting the ball as much or breaking the lines like he did. Still doing some good things but I'm sure the year is wearing him down. The problem is it's hard to find a replacement. White's a bit slow to play as a running defender but getting up the ground might help him. Michie is slow and has never consistently won or used the ball well at AFL level. We could send Nath Jones to half back and give the young mids the run of it in the middle but that's a lot to ask late in the year and against the Hawks.

[buck_nekkid 5,847]

Will probably get howled down, but here goes:

out:. Garlett. In BenKen

out: Vince.  In:. Clarry

out: Harmes. In: Terlich

Out: Hogan (if inj),. In Spencer. (Gawn to spend more time forward)

 

 

[mo64 5,853]

54 minutes ago, Nasher said:

It's this kind of flippancy that makes arguing with you an exercise in tedium, steve.  I enjoy reading your posts, but you dismiss any kind of quantitative response with "whatever, I use my eyes".  

Not looking for an argument over it, just a casual observation.

Not sure what the point of your post is? Steve is entitled to dismiss the quantitative argument of Disposal Efficiency, because like me, he sees it as a meaningless stat.

It was mentioned on Fox Footy during the week that the only individual stat that Clarkson cares about is Score Involvements. Hawthorn rank low is certain categories that people seem to think are important, like contested ball. Our game against WCE was a clear example of why so many stats are irrelevant.

 

Edited August 1, 2016 by mo64

[Pates 9,660]

4 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Will probably get howled down, but here goes:

out:. Garlett. In BenKen

out: Vince.  In:. Clarry

out: Harmes. In: Terlich

Out: Hogan (if inj),. In Spencer. (Gawn to spend more time forward)

 

 

Agree with Vince for Clarry, if Bernies injured then give him the week off. If he's not he almost cost us the game and should be sent to the VFL to show everyone their spot isn't safe. 

Garlett out for BenKen I can work with, Jeffy's had a really poor second half to the year but I think he'll be given another chance. 

Harmes for Terlich? Can't see it happening, I just can't. Terlich is.....Terlich and I don't think the selectors even have his magnet for the board anymore. Unless Harmes doesn't pull up well from his collision I think he'll stay. 

Hogan for Spencer I can definitely work with but Gawn is our no 1 ruckman, he's actually the player we can be chatting about in the elite category in his trade. He rucks, Spencer plays as a pillar up forward and chops out for him. 

Weeds is the other option if Jesse doesn't get up, but I'd rather him make his debut against Carlton or Port and not feed him to the wolves. 

[daisycutter 29,605]

18 minutes ago, Pates said:

Agree with Vince for Clarry, if Bernies injured then give him the week off. If he's not he almost cost us the game and should be sent to the VFL to show everyone their spot isn't safe. 

Garlett out for BenKen I can work with, Jeffy's had a really poor second half to the year but I think he'll be given another chance. 

Harmes for Terlich? Can't see it happening, I just can't. Terlich is.....Terlich and I don't think the selectors even have his magnet for the board anymore. Unless Harmes doesn't pull up well from his collision I think he'll stay. 

Hogan for Spencer I can definitely work with but Gawn is our no 1 ruckman, he's actually the player we can be chatting about in the elite category in his trade. He rucks, Spencer plays as a pillar up forward and chops out for him. 

Weeds is the other option if Jesse doesn't get up, but I'd rather him make his debut against Carlton or Port and not feed him to the wolves. 

agree too early for weeds. he's nowhere near ready. leave him at casey this year with a big off season at the gym and mcdonalds

[What 18,810]

Something tells me a game vs Hawthorn where they are looking for a bloodbath to prepare for the finals is not the game to debut Weed in.

[hardtack 10,517]

1 hour ago, mauriesy said:

It should be "I h8", shouldn't it?

Damn!  How could I miss that? I must have been too focused on my asse9 comment.

[The Sailing Demon 379]

I didn't watch the game due to be being on the ocean (It's still blue and wavey by the way) all I could do was refresh the fox footy site every few seconds to see the score tick over (I only found out there was a kick after the siren this morning...Thank Christ, I am only 25 but my heart wouldn't have been able to deal with it)
From what I am reading and seeing, it was a "tired" game of footy due to the Demons round 16-19 tour of Australia.
I reckon we should be omitting due to injury and fatigue the following.

Hogan(Inj)
Harmes(Rest)
Garlett(Who knows why he is playing so poorly)
Dawes(Don't yell at me Stuie, I just really want to see Hulett)

And bring in the following.
Weidman.
Oliver/Bugg.
Benken.
Hulett.

I am confident we can pull something out of our arses on Saturday because we went into the Geelong game last year with a few outs and managed to do well and like any Demons fan I have a wonderful misguided faith in the team.

On anoother good note, I have managed to swing it so I am back home in Sydney just in time for our last round game against Geelong which will be good...because when we win every game for the rest of the season, and the 3 teams above us all fail I will be home in time for our first finals series in a few years...cheering!

[daisycutter 29,605]

1 hour ago, hardtack said:

Damn!  How could I miss that? I must have been too focused on my asse9 comment.

*assi9

[junk 342]

Terlich cold be a surprise(possibly last senior game ever) for Garlett,Pedo or Hulett for Dawes,Salem for whoever. Another surprise could be Trengove ( we must give him a chance due to his long lay )

[hardtack 10,517]

6 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

*assi9

Ok, I promise to pay more a10tion next time.

[picket fence 17,070]

10 hours ago, jackaub said:

Carlton tagged Mitchell kept him to 22 

Who is our best tagger Viney? Bugg I think we must do it>

Do you know what?? I would tag Mitchell with Jones ( Chunky)  As for Matt Jones his butchering has gone on far too long!! Out!

[picket fence 17,070]

2 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Will probably get howled down, but here goes:

out:. Garlett. In BenKen

out: Vince.  In:. Clarry

out: Harmes. In: Terlich

Out: Hogan (if inj),. In Spencer. (Gawn to spend more time forward)

 

 

Not Howled down,but I feel like I'm coming down from a bad Drug induced Stupor with some of those changes!!!!

[Older demon 2,741]

Peterson had a great game Saturday and should earn a recall. O Mac had his best game and took marks and now he has shown a bit you could not possibly drop him. Michie was good and is a 1 paced player like Mitchell and would be my wild card to tag Mitchell. The Hawks 2 ruck men leant on Max last time and I would want more support for Max. Note Dawes did do more rucking than normal yesterday.

I can see Pedo, Bugg & Michie come in. I can se Hogan out injured (6 day break) Harmes rested and 1 other who is fatigued.

[chook fowler 19,447]

14 minutes ago, Older demon said:

Peterson had a great game Saturday and should earn a recall. O Mac had his best game and took marks and now he has shown a bit you could not possibly drop him. Michie was good and is a 1 paced player like Mitchell and would be my wild card to tag Mitchell. The Hawks 2 ruck men leant on Max last time and I would want more support for Max. Note Dawes did do more rucking than normal yesterday.

I can see Pedo, Bugg & Michie come in. I can se Hogan out injured (6 day break) Harmes rested and 1 other who is fatigued.

The fatigued one won't be Garlett.