21st century pain

[demon25 34]

So as another top 10 draft pick packs his bag and heads for the door, I note that since the turn of the century we have had 11 Top 10 draft picks.

Not one of them has played 200 games for our club. Not one has even won our B&F

5 have indeed left the club and plied their trade elsewhere.

In fact between them they average only 89 games (albeit 7 are still current players)

Consider the Top 10 list:

Year Player Selection Games 2001 Molan 9 0 2002 2003 Sylvia* 3 163 McLean* 5 157 2004 2005 2006 2007 Morton* 4 76 2008 Watts 1 115 2009 Scully* 1 103 Trengrove 2 81 2010 2011 2012 Toumpas* 4 27 2013 Salem 9 22 2014 Petracca 2 0 Brayshaw 3 21

* denotes left the Dees and plays/played elsewhere

Whilst the jury is still out on Salem, Petracca and Brayshaw (and haven't we all got our fingers crossed on that lot), you can categorically say none of the others have really become A graders. If we are honest Sylvia has probably got the closest.

I'd be fascinated to see if that is the worst average return per player in the league over the last 15 years.

[rjay 25,202]

So as another top 10 draft pick packs his bag and heads for the door, I note that since the turn of the century we have had 11 Top 10 draft picks.

Not one of them has played 200 games for our club. Not one has even won our B&F

5 have indeed left the club and plied their trade elsewhere.

In fact between them they average only 89 games (albeit 7 are still current players)

Consider the Top 10 list:

Year Player Selection Games 2001 Molan 9 0 2002 2003 Sylvia* 3 163 McLean* 5 157 2004 2005 2006 2007 Morton* 4 76 2008 Watts 1 115 2009 Scully* 1 103 Trengrove 2 81 2010 2011 2012 Toumpas* 4 27 2013 Salem 9 22 2014 Petracca 2 0 Brayshaw 3 21

* denotes left the Dees and plays/played elsewhere

Whilst the jury is still out on Salem, Petracca and Brayshaw (and haven't we all got our fingers crossed on that lot), you can categorically say none of the others have really become A graders. If we are honest Sylvia has probably got the closest.

I'd be fascinated to see if that is the worst average return per player in the league over the last 15 years.

I would say of the others Trengove got the closest (streets ahead of Silvia) and still has a chance to get there...

[praha 11,240]

Salem and Brayshaw both have had better starts to their careers than any of the other players you mentioned when you consider the team they've come in to and how the team played before they arrived. Sylvia and Brock came into a great side.

[angrydee 842]

Salem and Brayshaw both have had better starts to their careers than any of the other players you mentioned when you consider the team they've come in to and how the team played before they arrived. Sylvia and Brock came into a great side.

Great side?

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Viney would have been top10 if not for F/s

Hogan would clearly be no.1 under normal circumstances

Tyson was pick 3, traded to us for use of our pick 2

[Middymalt 244]

Great side?

Better than the [censored] dished up these days

[Chook 15,022]

Don't worry. It'll all be for 22nd century gain.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Notice how the quality has dramatically improved since Taylor took over?

[Nasher 33,617]

Notice how the quality has dramatically improved since Taylor took over?

The annoying thing is, you could random sample the BigFooty phantoms and draft better than we have in the past. Law of probability says we should have just fluked at least one really good player with all our top 20 picks, but no.

[John Crow Batty 8,879]

The annoying thing is, you could random sample the BigFooty phantoms and draft better than we have in the past. Law of probability says we should have just fluked at least one really good player with all our top 20 picks, but no.

The irony is if we had first round picks between 6 and 12 we would have likely a better chance of picking up someone good. There is a kind of a religious dogma around the first three or four picks. Not many recruiters with an early pick would go against the unanimous consensus of the chosen three or four best rated players.

Edited October 20, 2015 by america de cali

[Wrecker45 3,378]

The annoying thing is, you could random sample the BigFooty phantoms and draft better than we have in the past. Law of probability says we should have just fluked at least one really good player with all our top 20 picks, but no.

Don't forget Prendergast never actually watched Jurrah before we drafted him. Perhaps he should have done that a bit more often. We might have fluked some.

[Little Goffy 14,668]

We've held onto the best of them (Watts and Trengove), such as they are.

We've clearly improved our recruiting beyond recognition.

Our drafting nadir was 2011, with not even 50 games from the lot of them, and not a lot to show for the trading either.

Since then it has steadily improved, to the point where the Demon's 2014 draft has all seven players picked looking like possible keepers.

I'm gradually becoming less distressed.

[Je Roos Salem 661]

Then there's 11-20: Gysberts 19 games, Blease 33 games, Tapscott 48 games, Strauss 24 games, Cook 0 games, Mitch Clark 15 games.

What else I'll say is that seeing Salem and Brayshaw play fills me with hope

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

Salem and Brayshaw both have had better starts to their careers than any of the other players you mentioned when you consider the team they've come in to and how the team played before they arrived. Sylvia and Brock came into a great side.

Everybody always forgets how good Trengove was in his first few years. As much as I love Brayshaw and think he'll be a great player for us, Trengove's first season was better than Angus's. He played in a much worse team, found a lot more of the footy, and really looked like he had all the makings of a future superstar.

I really hope that he can get back on the park in 2015 and prove all his doubters wrong, because he definitely has the ability.

The annoying thing is, you could random sample the BigFooty phantoms and draft better than we have in the past. Law of probability says we should have just fluked at least one really good player with all our top 20 picks, but no.

It is sad, but this again brings up the whole Nature vs. Nurture debate. It seems the general consensus that we stuffed up both our drafting and development, and you have to wonder how our failed picks would have gone at a club like Geelong, Sydney or Hawthorn.

Edited October 20, 2015 by Good Times Grimes

[Coup Cooper 610]

I'm going to go all put and say as long as they don't get injured.. I think we'll get 750 games out of the last three!! Not to mention Hogan!! Who was a mini draft selection!! So hopefully One Fousand!!!

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

The irony is if we had first round picks between 6 and 12 we would have likely a better chance of picking up someone good. There is a kind of a religious dogma around the first three or four picks. Not many recruiters with an early pick would go against the unanimous consensus of the chosen three or four best rated players.

It's because of our squandering of very early draft picks that the whole footy world has woken up to the idea that they're not as valuable as they were once made out to be.

Exhibit A: Scully

Exhibit B: Watts

Now everyone sees that being a number one pick doesn't automatically make you a better player than the number 2 pick, and number 2 isn't better than no 3, etc.

The real value of an early pick is that you get to survey the field to maximise your chance of a good player. Not so you can grab "the star" of the draft.

No club in future will risk the cultural damage caused by tanking just to get one or two positions higher in the draft. The payoff just isn't there. But time was when it was thought well worth it.

[John Crow Batty 8,879]

It's because of our squandering of very early draft picks that the whole footy world has woken up to the idea that they're not as valuable as they were once made out to be.

Exhibit A: Scully

Exhibit B: Watts

Now everyone sees that being a number one pick doesn't automatically make you a better player than the number 2 pick, and number 2 isn't better than no 3, etc.

The real value of an early pick is that you get to survey the field to maximise your chance of a good player. Not so you can grab "the star" of the draft.

No club in future will risk the cultural damage caused by tanking just to get one or two positions higher in the draft. The payoff just isn't there. But time was when it was thought well worth it.

Watts and Scully and you can add Nik Nat and Trengove were so so highly hyped a year to months before their drafts as automatic lock in for picks 1 and 2 that any club with those picks would have been pressured to take them. I doubt there would have been many recruiters with the courage to differ. With a later first round pick a more informed and rational choice can be made that actually best suits the need of the club. Edited October 20, 2015 by america de cali

[Its Time for Another 4,298]

Watts and Scully and you can add Nik Nat and Trengove were so so highly hyped a year to months before their drafts as automatic lock in for picks 1 and 2 that any club with those picks would have been pressured to take them. I doubt there would have been many recruiters with the courage to differ. With a later first round pick a more informed and rational choice can be made that actually best suits the need of the club.

I'll never lose any sleep over Watts v Nic Nat. 4 possessions in a GF. Usually has about 6 possessions a game of which 1 or 2 are amazing. Much rather have Gawny and therefore Watts was always worth the pick. No one in the industry would have not picked one of those two. It is what it is. If you look at the top 20 of that draft there are a lot of ordinaries or busts.

[mo64 5,881]

Then there's 11-20: Gysberts 19 games, Blease 33 games, Tapscott 48 games, Strauss 24 games, Cook 0 games, Mitch Clark 15 games.

What else I'll say is that seeing Salem and Brayshaw play fills me with hope

Apart from Molan, the remaining top 10 picks were not shock selections. The ones that really sting are the ones you've mentioned above, excluding Clark who was crippled with injury.

[demon-4-life 467]

So as another top 10 draft pick packs his bag and heads for the door, I note that since the turn of the century we have had 11 Top 10 draft picks.

Not one of them has played 200 games for our club. Not one has even won our B&F

5 have indeed left the club and plied their trade elsewhere.

In fact between them they average only 89 games (albeit 7 are still current players)

Consider the Top 10 list:

Year Player Selection Games 2001 Molan 9 0 2002 2003 Sylvia* 3 163 McLean* 5 157 2004 2005 2006 2007 Morton* 4 76 2008 Watts 1 115 2009 Scully* 1 103 Trengrove 2 81 2010 2011 2012 Toumpas* 4 27 2013 Salem 9 22 2014 Petracca 2 0 Brayshaw 3 21

* denotes left the Dees and plays/played elsewhere

Whilst the jury is still out on Salem, Petracca and Brayshaw (and haven't we all got our fingers crossed on that lot), you can categorically say none of the others have really become A graders. If we are honest Sylvia has probably got the closest.

I'd be fascinated to see if that is the worst average return per player in the league over the last 15 years.

Kind of a moot point isn't it? 200 games? The fact that they would have had to play more or less every game since 2005 to reach 200 games. That means only Sylvia, Mclean and Molan could have reached it.

I think we've got a good lot in Salem, Petracca and Brayshaw. I'd be surprised if one of them didn't go on to be a champion of our club.

[DemonDave 1,096]

Kind of a moot point isn't it? 200 games? The fact that they would have had to play more or less every game since 2005 to reach 200 games. That means only Sylvia, Mclean and Molan could have reached it.

I think we've got a good lot in Salem, Petracca and Brayshaw. I'd be surprised if one of them didn't go on to be a champion of our club.

I cant believe Toumpas didnt play 200 games for us before he left, what a total bust!

[H_T 3,049]

I cant believe Toumpas didnt play 200 games for us before he left, what a total bust!

Maybe not a total bust. One of the picks from the mega deal (Howe & Toumpas) was given to GC in exchange for picks 3 and 10. Let's see what we get there and if we get an instant performer. We know that Toumpas has done basically nothing in 3 years.

[old dee 23,916]

Maybe not a total bust. One of the picks from the mega deal (Howe & Toumpas) was given to GC in exchange for picks 3 and 10. Let's see what we get there and if we get an instant performer. We know that Toumpas has done basically nothing in 3 years.

Yep and from my memory never got a BOG even at Casey.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,391]

So as another top 10 draft pick packs his bag and heads for the door, I note that since the turn of the century we have had 11 Top 10 draft picks.

Not one of them has played 200 games for our club. Not one has even won our B&F

5 have indeed left the club and plied their trade elsewhere.

In fact between them they average only 89 games (albeit 7 are still current players)

Consider the Top 10 list:

Year Player Selection Games 2001 Molan 9 0 2002 2003 Sylvia* 3 163 McLean* 5 157 2004 2005 2006 2007 Morton* 4 76 2008 Watts 1 115 2009 Scully* 1 103 Trengrove 2 81 2010 2011 2012 Toumpas* 4 27 2013 Salem 9 22 2014 Petracca 2 0 Brayshaw 3 21

* denotes left the Dees and plays/played elsewhere

Whilst the jury is still out on Salem, Petracca and Brayshaw (and haven't we all got our fingers crossed on that lot), you can categorically say none of the others have really become A graders. If we are honest Sylvia has probably got the closest.

I'd be fascinated to see if that is the worst average return per player in the league over the last 15 years.

Why is the jury out on Salem and Brayshaw? They are going to be gun players for the mighty Demons.

[DemonDave 1,096]

Maybe not a total bust. One of the picks from the mega deal (Howe & Toumpas) was given to GC in exchange for picks 3 and 10. Let's see what we get there and if we get an instant performer. We know that Toumpas has done basically nothing in 3 years.

I was referring to the OP bemoaning all of these Top 10 draft picks not playing 200 games for us. Toumpas had only been here for 3 years hence his initial arguments were ridiculously misguided and mathematically impossible...