KB's sobering prediction

[leucopogon 1,517]

Anyone else catch KB and Jon Ralph's gloomy outlook for the "struggling" clubs such as Melbourne, Bulldogs and Saints? Said that with free agency now top clubs no longer need to bottom out and with the draft concessions given to the expansion clubs, they're set to fight out the premierships for the foreseeable future.

Not exactly groundbreaking discussion but nonetheless hearing these two industry "experts" openly dismissing our chances of genuinely contending for a flag anytime soon, well it certainly took the air out of my tires a bit.

I've got to believe we'll be in with a chance sooner than 10 years from now. If Port can go from basket case to contender in the space of 2-3 seasons then why can't we do the same?

[KingDingAling 3,737]

Anyone else catch KB and Jon Ralph's gloomy outlook for the "struggling" clubs such as Melbourne, Bulldogs and Saints? Said that with free agency now top clubs no longer need to bottom out and with the draft concessions given to the expansion clubs, they're set to fight out the premierships for the foreseeable future.

Not exactly groundbreaking discussion but nonetheless hearing these two industry "experts" openly dismissing our chances of genuinely contending for a flag anytime soon, well it certainly took the air out of my tires a bit.

I've got to believe we'll be in with a chance sooner than 10 years from now. If Port can go from basket case to contender in the space of 2-3 seasons then why can't we do the same?

I think we are in a similar space to Port (2013). I wouldn't consider us to be cellar dwellers, we actually have a lot of young talent on our list.

In the case of Port Adelaide, they were far from a struggling side destined to hold the ladder up. They had a lot of quality players (Boak, WIngard, Wines, Gray, Hartlett).

Decent core to build around, that is a quality core that won't be seen at St Kilda anytime soon, I think they are in trouble.

MFC have a core of Jones, Tyson, Viney, Salem and Vince. It is of similar quality to Port before their rise.

Free agency will help MFC more than it will hinder it. We have a stack of young talent on our list, free agency will ensure we can keep adding experience - it is a balancing act. I think the sides slipping to the bottom now - Carlton, Saint Kilda, Bulldogs. I think they are in serious trouble. I can't see St Kilda replacing quality players like Montagna, Riewoldt and Fischer, through free agency alone, they will need priority picks, and I don't see how the AFL will justify giving them picks. I think the AFL shot themselves in the foot when they overlooked us last year. St Kilda will need PP's in the future to survive, but opposition clubs will simply point to our (MFC) record when we were overlooked.

Edited March 11, 2015 by KingDingAling

[Lucifers Hero 38,941]

Free agency will help MFC more than it will hinder it. We have a stack of young talent on our list, free agency will ensure we can keep adding experience - it is a balancing act. I think the sides slipping to the bottom now - Carlton, Saint Kilda, Bulldogs. I think they are in serious trouble. I can't see St Kilda replacing quality players like Montagna, Riewoldt and Fischer, through free agency alone, they will need priority picks, and I don't see how the AFL will justify giving them picks. I think the AFL shot themselves in the foot when they overlooked us last year. St Kilda will need PP's in the future to survive, but opposition clubs will simply point to our (MFC) record when we were overlooked.

Gil is a diehard Saints supporter. He will make sure his AFL find a way, much to my chagrin!

[Uncle Fester 2,843]

His opinion is either something to care about or it isn't, same as everyone elses.

If you see validity in his thoughts then start crying, if you don't then smile.

Football has far too many dynamics to make stupid predictions like that. To that end I'd be happy to offer him a 1K bet that he wont be able to pick the top 8 come round 13.

Ten years... heh.

It's a waffle point to fill in his waffle show.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

You can't predict what is going to happen in three years time with any certainty let alone ten.

History shows that there will be unexpected successes and failures.

[Ted Lasso 18,760]

Some industry experts like Paul roos and Simon Goodwin disagree.

[John Crow Batty 8,764]

Bartlett and Ralph are media mouths which part of their brief entails them to spread doom and gloom to fill in a lot of airtime on SEN. There is not enough info of real substance going around to fill in all those hours.

Edited March 11, 2015 by america de cali

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

I had thought the Lions were a basket case not that long ago.

Now I have them firmly in the eight and definitely on the rise.

Things can change quite quickly in this competition - particularly when a club has a CEO like PJ and a coaching staff consisting of the likes of Roos, McCartney and Goodwin.

As to free agency - pick 3 for Frawley was to my mind very adequate compensation.

Carlton and Essendon no longer seem to be the powerhouses they have traditionally been either.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

His opinion is either something to care about or it isn't, same as everyone elses.

If you see validity in his thoughts then start crying, if you don't then smile.

Football has far too many dynamics to make stupid predictions like that. To that end I'd be happy to offer him a 1K bet that he wont be able to pick the top 8 come round 13.

Ten years... heh.

It's a waffle point to fill in his waffle show.

Sums it up for me. I don't kid myself that we are a chance over the next few years but there are too many dynamics going through the AFL to make sweeping statements like KB and Ralph have.

It's up to us to prove them wrong.

[CBDees 3,165]

I had thought the Lions were a basket case not that long ago.

Now I have them firmly in the eight and definitely on the rise.

Things can change quite quickly in this competition - particularly when a club has a CEO like PJ and a coaching staff consisting of the likes of Roos, McCartney and Goodwin.

As to free agency - pick 3 for Frawley was to my mind very adequate compensation.

Carlton and Essendon no longer seem to be the powerhouses they have traditionally been either.

I agree with what you say about things moving quickly given the right support staff and I don't think that it is out of the question that we emulate Brisbane (or Port Adelaide). Whilst pick 3 for Frawley last year was adequate compensation, that fact that we went the last three years without a Priority Pick was a disgrace, considering in three years, we won 4, 2 & 4 games respectfully in the preceding year (especially when the AFL's official finding was that we had not tanked in the first of those years, merely held the game into disrepute)!

[rjay 24,577]

Funny thing, I think the Tiges are in a worse position than us. They are pitching at a flag with this list and it's not good enough, probably won't even make the 8 this year. It's a new coach and a rebuild for them in the next few years.

When I text Kev and Ralphy this they never seem to address this issue. Who do they support again???

[Mad_Melbourne 872]

I had thought the Lions were a basket case not that long ago.

Now I have them firmly in the eight and definitely on the rise.

That was the most interesting thing that you posted, whilst i think they will improve due to the addition of Beams and Christiansen, i cant see them scoring enough goals to win enough games to put them in the 8.

Tab has them at $4.50 to make the 8 but i have at least 10 clubs ahead of them in my opinion, so i wonder how you have them firmly in the 8 and who do you have dropping out?

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

the "struggling" clubs such as Melbourne, Bulldogs and Saints?

I notice North Melbourne is not mentioned

They are obviously anything but a power club, nonetheless they were right amongst it last year

I also haven't been seeing Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon or Richmond making any serious waves in the AFL for some time now

If it's all about 'power' why are these clubs continuing to be non-contenders?

[John Crow Batty 8,764]

Remember about 11 years ago Geelong nearly gone according to the doom sayers.

[rjay 24,577]

Remember about 11 years ago Geelong nearly gone according to the doom sayers.

...and a few years ago Port were a basket case. West Coast were set up for a great period of success....

In 2000 Essendon were at the start of a dynasty, the Tiges in 1980. What happened???

[McQueen 17,864]

I agree with what you say about things moving quickly given the right support staff and I don't think that it is out of the question that we emulate Brisbane (or Port Adelaide). Whilst pick 3 for Frawley last year was adequate compensation, that fact that we went the last three years without a Priority Pick was a disgrace, considering in three years, we won 4, 2 & 4 games respectfully in the preceding year (especially when the AFL's official finding was that we had not tanked in the first of those years, merely held the game into disrepute)!

Priority picks will re-enter and be handed out once FA compensation is scrapped.

It's the only reason we were overlooked in my opinion.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,378]

KB and Ralph in particular are talking heads - they make outrageous statements, focus on the negative, get some talk-back callers all riled up - then it's forgotten by the next day... when they do it all over again!

I agree with the above posters: North Melbourne were a 'destination club' for free agents last year, Brisbane and Port were 'bankrupt' 'irrelevant' and 'unsustainable' in the last one to three years. We go through peaks and troughs in football:

Interstate domination / Victorian desolation

Victorian domination / Interstate desolation

Expansion teams to dominate the comp / Expansion teams to bankrupt the comp

Media 'personalities' make these blanket statements and rightly assume that no one will remember that they had in fact stated the opposite the year before. I'm still waiting for the Inquiry into Victorian Football that was being called for in 2006... one year before Vic clubs went on to win seven of the next eight flags!

Melbourne would be a destination club for Free Agents if we'd drafted and developed our players well in the last six years.

Melbourne would also not have lost the Free Agents that we wanted to keep if we'd drafted and developed well in the last six years.

If we have our house in order, players will come, players will stay.

[Redleg 40,005]

I think the AFL shot themselves in the foot when they overlooked us last year. St Kilda will need PP's in the future to survive, but opposition clubs will simply point to our (MFC) record when we were overlooked.

We won't point, we will shout.

[CBDees 3,165]

Priority picks will re-enter and be handed out once FA compensation is scrapped.

It's the only reason we were overlooked in my opinion.

That explain last year but not 2013 Edited March 12, 2015 by CBDees

[Earl Hood 6,057]

KB and Ralph in particular are talking heads - they make outrageous statements, focus on the negative, get some talk-back callers all riled up - then it's forgotten by the next day... when they do it all over again!

I agree with the above posters: North Melbourne were a 'destination club' for free agents last year, Brisbane and Port were 'bankrupt' 'irrelevant' and 'unsustainable' in the last one to three years. We go through peaks and troughs in football:

Interstate domination / Victorian desolation

Victorian domination / Interstate desolation

Expansion teams to dominate the comp / Expansion teams to bankrupt the comp

Media 'personalities' make these blanket statements and rightly assume that no one will remember that they had in fact stated the opposite the year before. I'm still waiting for the Inquiry into Victorian Football that was being called for in 2006... one year before Vic clubs went on to win seven of the next eight flags!

Melbourne would be a destination club for Free Agents if we'd drafted and developed our players well in the last six years.

Melbourne would also not have lost the Free Agents that we wanted to keep if we'd drafted and developed well in the last six years.

If we have our house in order, players will come, players will stay.

I caught the last half of the SEN conversation yesterday and thought they were talking some sense. The context of their conversation was that WB, St Kilda and MFC had not won a flag between them for 61,51and 49 years. Yes there are peaks and troughs in the competition but not for these minnows. Why is that the case? They then went through a number of reasons, the expansion clubs are stocked up to the gunnels with first round draft picks and will likely dominate in the next few years. The top clubs are not going to bottom out because they can top up with experienced players via FA or just poaching good kids out of contract eager to play finals.

The flow of FA transfers has generally been good players to higher teams, not the other way.

I largely agreed with JR that more needs to be done in equalisation, a wealth tax on the big clubs to a maximum of $500K is not going to have much impact on the big boys and the few extra $million thrown to us and doggies is not going to turn us into finalists. The draft is thrown up as a saviour but it is somewhat of a lottery and as we know not every first rounder works. I don't think they were saying it is impossible to climb up the ladder for some clubs the odds are heavily stacked against them. AS in shyte fixtures where you barely break even on gate receipts. Apparently the Saints only make any money on their NZ game.

KB wondered why the three clubs were so silent about the current equalisation set up and I agree we should be working together more to influence the agenda. KB was sure that if the Pies were down for an extended period Eddie would be yelling and screaming for change.

I believe there is a problem with so called AFL equalisation. The odds are against the minnows such a us climbing to the peak and snaffling a flag under the current rules.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,378]

I agree that the expansion teams have been given a huge leg-up in recent years with drafting and salary cap concessions, but I'm not so sold on the weaker clubs, who have had huge breaks since their last premiership, being inherantly incapable. That list would have been fleshed out with Geelong and Sydney if they were having this conversation ten years ago. StKilda went within a toe-poke and a rotten bounce of being back to back premiers a few years back. Bulldogs played three prelims in a row in the last decade and should have played off in at least one grand final in the late 90s.

AFL is so unpredictable and no amount of concessions and leg-ups can guarantee success - MFC is proof of that.

[Tony Tea 2,800]

There is rock all point comparing the two expansion clubs to Melbourne. GWS and GC have been built under extraordinary circumstances that are unlikely to be replicated (until the AFL repeats the deal with Tassie and the NT).

The key question for me is whether Melbourne will ever be able to build a premiership side. You largely have to be able to keep your list together over a period of four or five years, augmenting strengths, filling holes, improving bit players, building momentum. But we have a knack for losing players at key moments, either through defections or injury. Every time we stack a few bricks, someone or something pulls a few out of the pile.

[mauriesy 7,153]

Is this the same KB that tipped last year's Grand Final to be between Richmond and the Kangaroos?

[Little Goffy 13,969]

Funny thing, I think the Tiges are in a worse position than us. They are pitching at a flag with this list and it's not good enough, probably won't even make the 8 this year. It's a new coach and a rebuild for them in the next few years.

When I text Kev and Ralphy this they never seem to address this issue. Who do they support again???

Richmond 2013

Carlton 2009

Melbourne 2004

All thought they were on the way up, but in truth, they had all peaked already.

Daniher was sacked in effect for trying to hold onto the dream too long, until all the old bodies creaked to a standstill.

The opposite of Ratten who was sacked because the board didn't want to hear him admit the club couldn't reach the top with their current list.

I wonder how things will go with Hardwick?

[dees189227 12,027]

well peter jackson has expectations according to mark stevens who tweeted out the following.

Demons CEO deadly serious about team goals ... One final in 2016 and two finals in 2017 ... applaud it, you gotta have aims