Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 22

[Demonland 73,136]

ONE GOAL IN MIND by Whispering Jack

It was a little over a month ago that the Melbourne Football Club was just two and a half minutes off recording a remarkable victory over top four aspirant Port Adelaide when it led 10.9.69 to 9.12.66 late in Round 18 match.

Victory would have given the Demons their fifth win for the season with two eminently winnable home matches coming up against fellow cellar dwellers in Brisbane and GWS and in between, a tough assignment against ladder leader Hawthorn. Beyond those games stood a then struggling West Coast and a flakey North Melbourne.

Who knows how the run home might have panned out if the stars had aligned and the team had moved forward rather than backward from that moment in time 26 minutes into the final term at the Adelaide Oval when a kick launched into the Melbourne forward line by Mark Jamar found an unattended Port Adelaide defender?

What we do know is what happened next. The ball went coast to coast through a vacant corridor, was eventually marked by Jay Schulz who threaded it through goal to give the lead to Port. The Demons' last chance to rebound to victory was snuffed out a moment later by an errant pass from Jack Grimes to Dom Tyson which fell out of bounds on the full.

The reaction to the club's defeat was generally positive and we went into the bye week buoyed at the prospect of a strong finish to the season.

Fast forward to the Brisbane game and five minutes into the final term, Melbourne's defensive style has served it well in a fairly scrappy game. After Rohan Bail's goal it leads by 13 points and when Daniel Merrett is reported for striking Cam Pedersen, the question is asked - are the Lions in disarray? Bernie Vince misses a difficult shot from the boundary and the Demons lead 6.14.50 to a meagre 5.6.36 but Brisbane takes the game on and overruns them doubling their score on the way to a well-deserved 23 point win. Paul Roos reacts savagely citing the club's recent history and poor culture.

Melbourne wasn't expected to set the world on fire the following week against Hawthorn but many regarded the 50 point defeat against the ladder leaders and co-favourites for the premiership a comparatively respectable one.

Then on to GWS at the MCG last Sunday and, as appalling as they were on the day, they managed to win the contested possessions (125 to 118), hit outs (44 to 28), clearances (34 to 30) and inside 50s (45 to 42). Of course, those figures prove the old adage about lies, damn lies and statistics because the young Giants ran them into the ground despite losing players through injury to the point where they were restricted to virtually one interchange. When the dust settled the young newcomers to the competition had utterly demolished the oldest.

Those two home matches against lowly interstate clubs that were expected to see the Demons close in on the end of the season with some confidence-boosting wins to hold them in good stead for the future ended in disaster and a combined losing total of 87 points. This despite a similar number of scoring shots for an incredible score line of 9.31 to 26.16, a testament to the team's inability to convert scoring opportunities into goals.

Apart from the odd snigger there was no claim that Melbourne was tanking, one which was afforded widespread currency five years ago when Melbourne lost its Round 18 game against Richmond after the Tigers goaled after the siren.

Back then, the Demons were supposed to not be trying to win. After all, they were playing James Frawley in the forward line. Somehow, they still managed to kick 12 goals that day despite having three players injured during the match.

Now that Melbourne is actually trying to win its games but can only manage to score three goals against the newest franchise, the football world is up in arms denying it the right available on the AFL's books for draft assistance based on the sins it was supposed to have committed five years ago; back when it kicked a score that's about 35% above its average this season.

I have no explanation for this, but the way things are trending, it's quite possible that Melbourne might not even score a goal on Saturday night at Pattersons Stadium against the West Coast Eagles which would even further vindicate the view of some real smart thinkers that it not only does not need but also does not deserve any help at all in its quest to rise above its current deplorable position.

THE GAME

Melbourne v West Coast v Melbourne at Patersons Stadium Saturday 23 August, 2014 at 7.40 pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall West Coast 30 wins Melbourne 15 wins

At Patersons Stadium West Coast 13 wins Melbourne 5 wins

Past five years West Coast 5 wins Melbourne 2 wins

The Coaches Simpson 1 win Roos 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports Channel 3 at 7.30pm

RADIO SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

West Coast to win - $1.02 Melbourne to win - $13.00

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

West Coast 18.15.123 defeated Melbourne 4.6.30 Round 2, 2014 at the MCG

The Eagles had their own way from start to finish in what was an embarrassment for all at the club.

THE TEAMS

WEST COAST

B: Jeremy McGovern, Eric Mackenzie, Jamie Bennell

HB: Shannon Hurn, Mitchell Brown, Will Schofield

C: Patrick McGinnity, Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff

HF: Jamie Cripps, Josh Kennedy, Chris Masten

F: Nic Naitanui, Jack Darling, Josh Hill

FOLL: Dean Cox, Mark Hutchings, Luke Shuey

I/C: Sam Butler, Mark LeCras, Scott Lycett, Dominic Sheed

EMG: Jacob Brennan, Adam Carter, Brant Colledge

IN: Mark Le Cras

OUT: Simon Tunbridge (omitted)

MELBOURNE

B: Lynden Dunn, James Frawley, Colin Garland

HB: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Matt Jones, Jack Viney, Daniel Cross

HF: Bernie Vince, Cameron Pedersen, Jack Watts

F: Max Gawn, Chris Dawes, Jack Fitzpatrick

FOLL: Mark Jamar Nathan Jones Dom Tyson

I/C: Rohan Bail, Dean Kent, Viv Michie, Christian Salem

EMG: Dom Barry, Jordie McKenzie, Aidan Riley

IN: Rohan Bail, Jack Fitzpatrick, Cameron Pedersen

OUT: Dom Barry (omitted), Jack Grimes (hamstring), Aidan Riley (omitted)

THE ICE BUCKET CHALLENGE

Speaking on his afternoon radio programme on SEN, former star Demon forward David Schwarz predicted that one Round 22 game will result in a tied result. After all, there have to date been no drawn matches this season and The Ox believes it would be unusual if there was not one such result over a year.

Initially, I was skeptical about the idea but given the nature of this season and some of the incredible results that we've been seeing, I decided that idea the might have some credence.

The Machiavellian in me decided that the most likely candidate for a Round 22 dead heat is the game between Richmond and St. Kilda. The Tigers have moved from having a disastrous season at 3 - 10 to win seven games in a row, level the win/loss ledger and now find themselves on the cusp of an unlikely finals appearance. It would be just like them to blow that opportunity by tieing a game against the bottom side and securing ninth place for another season.

But such a loss would most likely give Melbourne an unwanted wooden spoon and that cannot possibly be allowed to happen. Surely not?

At this point I contemplated the almost impossible. Could Melbourne, which was so comprehensively outplayed on the MCG earlier in the season by this week's opponent, turn it all around in the space of only six days and after a long flight west? Could they lift in front of their old coach and long time servant of both clubs Neale Daniher whose physical plight was so sadly highlighted during the week?

After all their last interstate jaunt almost produced a stunning victory against Port Adelaide who are currently ripping sides apart in their bid for a top four spot.

Then I thought about it a little more and decided to tip the ice bucket on the whole idea.

Firstly, the Eagles have been in great form recently and were a bit stiff to lose against the Bombers last week at Etihad. They need to win their two remaining matches and build on their percentage to have a chance of playing in the finals. This remains eminently doable.

Secondly, Melbourne would not only have to turn around its abysmal recent form highlighted by poor skills, a lack of pace and weak efforts, all of which usually expose teams out on the long expanse of Patersons Stadium.

Finally, the incredible team selection which sees all of those big blokes chosen up forward where the team's current style of play dictates the ball should not be delivered. Last week, we saw 208cm Max Gawn frustrated when players kicked the ball sideways to the boundary instead of in his direction in the goal square. This week, he'll have another tall bloke standing on either side frozen out of the game on that full forward line while others further afield fiddle around with the ball in their usual pedestrian fashion.

In other words, hell is freezing over and the Demons are as cold as ice.

West Coast should win and win well.

[Pennant St Dee 13,301]

Well the boys flew in last night and I just had a quick chat with Nate Jones, who is just out on Langley Park having a kick with Gawny, Watts & Howe. You can see the ground from our building and I grabbed an MFC flag I had and they signed it for my young lad, hopefully that will be another incentive to keep him on board for a few years along with a solid effort on Saturday night

[samcantstandya 1,057]

Well the boys flew in last night and I just had a quick chat with Nate Jones, who is just out on Langley Park having a kick with Gawny, Watts & Howe. You can see the ground from our building and I grabbed an MFC flag I had and they signed it for my young lad, hopefully that will be another incentive to keep him on board for a few years along with a solid effort on Saturday night

Gr8 2 c u r still passionate about the Dees especially being over in the west. Hope ur son stays a fan. I took my 3 kids all under 12 and its getting really hard to keep them from jumping ship when players like Jurrah & Clark leave and we can't kick a goal to save ourselves.

[bing181 9,328]

Hogan not amongst them I imagine ... cough cough ...

[bing181 9,328]

WEST COAST

B: Jeremy McGovern, Eric Mackenzie, Jamie Bennell

HB: Shannon Hurn, Mitchell Brown, Will Schofield

C: Patrick McGinnity, Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff

HF: Jamie Cripps, Josh Kennedy, Chris Masten

F: Nic Naitanui, Jack Darling, Josh Hill

FOLL: Dean Cox, Mark Hutchings, Luke Shuey

I/C: Sam Butler, Mark LeCras, Scott Lycett, Dominic Sheed

EMG: Jacob Brennan, Adam Carter, Brant Colledge

IN: Mark Le Cras

OUT: Simon Tunbridge (omitted)

MELBOURNE

B: Lynden Dunn, James Frawley, Colin Garland

HB: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Matt Jones, Jack Viney, Daniel Cross

HF: Bernie Vince, Cameron Pedersen, Jack Watts

F: Max Gawn, Chris Dawes, Jack Fitzpatrick

FOLL: Mark Jamar Nathan Jones Dom Tyson

I/C: Rohan Bail, Dean Kent, Viv Michie, Christian Salem

EMG: Dom Barry, Jordie McKenzie, Aidan Riley

IN: Rohan Bail, Jack Fitzpatrick, Cameron Pedersen

OUT: Dom Barry (omitted), Jack Grimes (hamstring), Aidan Riley (omitted)

[Norm Smith's Curse 2,602]

Fitzpatrick eh?

[Jaded No More 68,972]

Rubbish changes. Not that we have much to work with.

Depressing.

[bing181 9,328]

Fitzpatrick eh?

Yep, always good to keep 'em guessing. No flies on Roos and co.

[picket fence 17,479]

FMD we drop one bloke who actually gets the footy in Riley??

I know his disposal has been "Iffy" but FMD HE GOES HARD AND GETS THE AGATE!

FMD! GEEZZZAS

[dees189227 12,396]

happy to see pedersen back. Riley I thought showed something against hawthorn and it would have been nice to see him play a whole match. I wonder if Fitzy is in just to see if he shows something in 2 games.

[picket fence 17,479]

happy to see pedersen back. Riley I thought showed something against hawthorn and it would have been nice to see him play a whole match. I wonder if Fitzy is in just to see if he shows something in 2 games.

Yes , Yes and Probably!

[JV7 2,354]

I know I said it earlier on another thread but are these changes serious ? I was worried we'll be too top heavy by adding Pedersen let alone FITZPATRICK!! Jamar, gawn, Pedersen, fitzy all in the same side on the biggest ground in the comp...We will get run off our feet!! Adding to it no crumbing forward aswell, would have liked to see JKH in if we've gone so tall

Edited August 21, 2014 by JV7

[Roger Mellie 4,096]

TALL eh!

[Coq au vin 755]

Riley runs backwards and sideways in a panic when he gets the ball then gets tacked and turns it over repeatedly. Delist!

[The Lobster Effect 893]

Poor Strauss...

[Scoop Junior 3,513]

I know I said it earlier on another thread but are these changes serious ? I was worried we'll be too top heavy by adding Pedersen let alone FITZPATRICK!! Jamar, gawn, Pedersen, fitzy all in the same side.. We will get run off our feet!! Adding to it no crumbing forward as, would have liked to see JKH in if we've gone so tall

Agree - I cannot understand the changes at all. To go with that many talls is bizarre. To do so at Subiaco, a ground that requires run, is crazy!

It's going to be a field day for Hurn and co. across half back (that's if we actually get the ball forward).

[Nasher 33,617]

Agree - I cannot understand the changes at all. To go with that many talls is bizarre. To do so at Subiaco, a ground that requires run, is crazy!

It's going to be a field day for Hurn and co. across half back (that's if we actually get the ball forward).

Roos said early in the year that they're not even really looking at tactics, they're just focusing on getting the side to do the very basics in footy. I doubt after last week's amazingly awesome exhibition of doing basic footy stuff that this week would be the week where this philosophy changes.

[DeeSpencer 26,070]

West Coast are tall as well. So who knows, might balance out.

Frawley, Dunn, McDonald, Garland all in the same back half can work. No real concern there. All 4 of those guys provide as much run as anyone else we play down back!

The forward half with the resting ruck plus 3 of Fitzy, Dawes and Pedo seems too tall. But then again Dawes is probably our best at forward pressure. Fitzy might be 200cm but has played his best footy as a crumbing giant really. And just means Kent, Bail and Salem have to rotate through the midfield. One of Kent or Salem will probably be the sub and Bail can play midfield.

The other option is a bit of a brave selection and name Fitzy or Pedo as the sub. Both can play as mobile half forward targets and be as useful/useless as any other sub we usually play. Or if a defender goes down we bring on Pedo to CHB or move him there when Fitzy comes on.

Maybe the thinking is if we play a bunch of tall forwards they'll all stick in the forward line and demand the ball be kicked in to them. They'll be less imperative to go backwards or sideways with more hard leading talls providing an option. Only one way to find out if it works.

[gutrunner 8]

Good to see you can all select a team better than the coaching panel, what in the hell would he know anyway.

[chookrat 4,268]

Play fitzy and Dunn as midfielders. Could be interesting.

[Whispering_Jack 30,580]

I can see it now.

In 3 or 4 years time we're going to be charged with tanking over the past few weeks.

[Biffen 12,944]

Ditzy Fitzy will bag 6- relax.

[FireInTheBennelly 4,099]

I like it. Roosy basically saying if you muppets refuse to go forward spotting up a target and are so desperate to just bomb it in, let's see how that works for ya. I'll even give you every match fit tall forward on the list to bomb it towards. Go your hardest!

Presumably when this fails miserably the players will realise it's a waste of frigging time and they might start trying the actual game plan

[beelzebub 23,382]

I can see it now.

In 3 or 4 years time we're going to be charged with tanking over the past few weeks.

yeah but can they give us the picks first

[Pennant St Dee 13,301]

I saw the Pies live over here against Meth Coast and they were monstered by the Eagles talls. Fine weather predicted so IMO no real surprise with so many talls named. Concern for me is can Viney run with Priddis/Shuey or Gaff all day. I expect Cross and Jones to get run with roles on two of thse players and Vince or Bail to play as a defensive HF on Hurn. Viney will get one of theleft over mids