Demons season opener v Saints

[old dee 23,792]

I'm not going to disagree with all the nervous nellies that it's going to be a long season if we maintain i50 counts of 31 against 62.

But the less fragile among us are confident that's probably not going to happen. Due to the many one-off factors from that game.

Akum after the last seven years I am so fragile I make glass look like steel.

I desperately need a victory in the first game.

I agree with rjay the only stat that matters to me is the final one on the score board

[drdrake 3,178]

I think we are scoring at around 50% once we get the ball inside our 50m arc and that is with out half our forward line out. Just think once we get full confidence in our ability to move and control the footy and we hit the inside 50 mark 55-60 times with a full forward line, it should result in 25-30 scoring shots that will win most games

[CBDees 3,167]

Fellow Demonlanders,

Round 1 in 2014 gives us a wonderful opportunity to 'go for percentage'. What a wonderful start for the year if we are not only in the eight by virtue of winning but we lead the ladderboard after the first round. A great start for the year and the game is ours to lose [but let's hope not]. We should accept nothing less than to start the year as top of the ladder.

Edited March 4, 2014 by CBDees

[Ted Lasso 19,518]

Fellow Demonlanders,

Round 1 in 2014 gives us a wonderful opportunity to 'go for percentage'. What a wonderful start for the year if we are not only in the eight by virtue of winning but we lead the ladderboard after the first round. A great start for the year and the game is ours to lose [but let's hope not]. We should accept nothing less than to start the year as top of the ladder.

we play the Suns, Giants, and Saints in the first 5 rounds, i reckon we should feel we can beat all three, we also play Carlton and the Eagles, i reckon we can beat Carlton if we play well but 5 rounds in and 3 wins and two super competitive losses and i will be thrilled.

[old dee 23,792]

Fellow Demonlanders,

Round 1 in 2014 gives us a wonderful opportunity to 'go for percentage'. What a wonderful start for the year if we are not only in the eight by virtue of winning but we lead the ladderboard after the first round. A great start for the year and the game is ours to lose [but let's hope not]. We should accept nothing less than to start the year as top of the ladder.

Can we just win CBD?

Forget percentage at this point.

[furious d 464]

Yes, nor am I claiming the opposite...

I am just responding to posts that were to do with 'possession count' in a game. If you'd bothered to scroll up, you wouldn't have needed to post what you did.

Just adding my opinion to a conversation steve, it's what you do on a forum. Please show me where I claimed you said the opposite.

[Bingo 305]

we play the Suns, Giants, and Saints in the first 5 rounds, i reckon we should feel we can beat all three, we also play Carlton and the Eagles, i reckon we can beat Carlton if we play well but 5 rounds in and 3 wins and two super competitive losses and i will be thrilled.

I'm feeling much more positive about the upcoming season than i have in years, although i don't believe that the suns and giants will be easybeats like they were in the past.

[Young Dee 1,303]

we're learning

making mistakes but not truckloads

we will evolve

That's what we have been hearing for the last 7 years - after being smashed by over 100 points you would have to lisen to the players BS: "We learnt a lot tonight.....".

Surely the players heads must be about to explode due to the amount they have learnt over the last 7 years.

Call me stupid but I actually kind of believe them this time (in a way that a women would forgive their abusive drunken husband). I don't know why I bother.

Edited March 5, 2014 by Young Dee

[old dee 23,792]

That's what we have been hearing for the last 7 years - after being smashed by over 100 points you would have to lisen to the players BS: "We learnt a lot tonight.....".

Surely the players heads must be about to explode due to the amount they have learnt over the last 7 years.

Call me stupid but I actually kind of believe them this time (in a way that a women would forgive their abusive drunken husband). I don't know why I bother.

There is one difference YD that I can see.

A number that were learning so much are now so clever they are now somewhere else.

That has got to be a good result for education.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

We had 31 inside 50's compared to their 62. You know that this is a long way off the mark. To be a finals team average inside 50 (last year) averaged about 55 inside 50's, which generally resulted in 100points on the scoreboard. This is a big concern as over both pre season games we have averaged 35 inside 50's. This number may be lower because we are not bombing the ball in long, more trying to be patient and hit a target. But still, as you know, this number is a big concern and it will be hard for us to win any games in 2014 with an average of 35 inside 50's!!!!

I can't dispute that. It's in my signature. The thing that makes that stat even more worrying is that the scoring shot comparison matches it also.

What we are dealing with right now is some sort of statistical anomaly. At the moment it seems like we have a solid defense (as we had last year) we have the ability to win the contested ball (bolstered most prominently by Vince and Tyson) we have the ability to share and retain the ball, and we have a very high rate of converting inside-50s to goals (and this is even without Clark and Dawes). So it looks to me that the only ingredient we are missing is that ability to get inside 50 at a competitive rate.

[jumbo returns 6,741]

we play the Suns, Giants, and Saints in the first 5 rounds, i reckon we should feel we can beat all three, we also play Carlton and the Eagles, i reckon we can beat Carlton if we play well but 5 rounds in and 3 wins and two super competitive losses and i will be thrilled.

Suns will win easily.

[ManDee 7,153]

Yes, most of the other stats were even, except for inside 50's which they dominated.

The only way that the 'possession count' stat is a positive, is if we're dominating a team in every other stat including inside 50's!

The only real stat that matters is the scoreboard! (Stating the obvious)

The excitement about "the possession count" is that it is a positive marker. In the past we seemed to only lead in turnovers and clangers.

When you take the Roos style melded with our list "the possession game" is an obvious way to "improve our percentage over 50%"

It is a step, to the greater plan, more possessions, better disposal, greater score, winning, premiership.

"A journey of a thousand miles began with a single step."

1904 Saying of Lao Tzu

[Akum 2,660]

...

What we are dealing with right now is some sort of statistical anomaly. At the moment it seems like we have a solid defense (as we had last year) we have the ability to win the contested ball (bolstered most prominently by Vince and Tyson) we have the ability to share and retain the ball, and we have a very high rate of converting inside-50s to goals (and this is even without Clark and Dawes). So it looks to me that the only ingredient we are missing is that ability to get inside 50 at a competitive rate.

I think if a large proportion of your i50s are on breakaway attacks (because most of the game is played in your defensive half), you're going to convert better than, for argument's sake, a team that bombs high to full-forward (where the i50 conversion rate will be 10-20%), or has to score through a relatively crowded i50 area.

In other words, the higher i50 conversion rate says more about how we score our goals than it does about us having more efficient forwards etc.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,842]

we play the Suns, Giants, and Saints in the first 5 rounds, i reckon we should feel we can beat all three, we also play Carlton and the Eagles, i reckon we can beat Carlton if we play well but 5 rounds in and 3 wins and two super competitive losses and i will be thrilled.

After the NAB Challenge, I'm more optimistic in beating St Kilda and less optimistic in beating GWS (who look like they've seriously improved).

No chance against Carlton who have dominated us since 2008 while West Coast are top 4 quality.

We can beat Gold Coast if we catch them on a really bad day.

2 wins is the best I can see.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

less optimistic in beating GWS (who look like they've seriously improved).

so do we though

[jnrmac 20,090]

I can't dispute that. It's in my signature. The thing that makes that stat even more worrying is that the scoring shot comparison matches it also.

What we are dealing with right now is some sort of statistical anomaly. At the moment it seems like we have a solid defense (as we had last year) we have the ability to win the contested ball (bolstered most prominently by Vince and Tyson) we have the ability to share and retain the ball, and we have a very high rate of converting inside-50s to goals (and this is even without Clark and Dawes). So it looks to me that the only ingredient we are missing is that ability to get inside 50 at a competitive rate.

I agree - I think we are being soooo patient with the ball and waiting for the right option rather than bombing it in. Hence our numbers of i50s are low but because we are slecting the right option in accasions once we get it in there our conversion rate is high.

The rest we are probably turning over!

[beelzebub 23,377]

No Clark

Clark to miss rnd 1

[hughtinkler 22]

Of the saints midfield from last year: Hayes (suspended), montagna (suspended), Stevens (injured), dal santo (traded)

Compared to Vince, Tyson, Michie, Trengove, Watts, Jones etc we have a big chance of providing opportunities for the forwards!

[Alcho Dee 269]

I'm not going to disagree with all the nervous nellies that it's going to be a long season if we maintain i50 counts of 31 against 62.

But the less fragile among us are confident that's probably not going to happen. Due to the many one-off factors from that game.

Which one-off factors would they be......?

[Alcho Dee 269]

Well we won one and lost another close one. You might not want to believe this but the only stat that really matters is the final score.

Sydney Premiership win 2012 Hawthorn inside 50's 61 score 81, Sydney inside 50's 43 score 91. Looks like we are already converting better than Sydney.

Look, I'm sure we will improve our inside 50's but at the end of the day all that matters is we score more than the opposition. If that means we play kick to kick around the back line for a bit then go forward and score so be it. Stats really are misleading in isolation as is that Sydney Hawthorn stat by the way.

You have isolated the 2012 grand final, but this stat wasn't misleading for the whole 2013 season mate, and for the whole nab challenge so far, there is nothing misleading about the inside 50 statistic what so ever, not a big deal, just saying mate.

[old dee 23,792]

No Clark

Clark to miss rnd 1

Yes bb it is one hell of a shock I agree

[beelzebub 23,377]

Yes bb it is one hell of a shock I agree

didnt see it coming....you ?

[DeeZee 7,397]

Suns will win easily.

Disagree here i think it will be a close one.

[Clintosaurus 7,849]

I see we are $1.55 or thereabouts for the win in this game. It wasn't long ago that the Saints were a similar price.

[rjay 24,929]

You have isolated the 2012 grand final, but this stat wasn't misleading for the whole 2013 season mate, and for the whole nab challenge so far, there is nothing misleading about the inside 50 statistic what so ever, not a big deal, just saying mate.

Any stat in isolation apart from the final score is misleading.