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I’ll be tuning in tonight, purely to hear us being congratulated for winning the 2021 premiership.

Great get for this club. Big physical 195cm 88kg key forward who has also played down back. Had some insane numbers in the back end of the year in the colts level as a noted goal kicker. Welcome Jacob.

One of the results of the Covid19 pandemic is that it will take a while before the outcome of last year’s AFL National Draft can be judged. And if 2020 turned out to be an enigma for recruiters then tonight’s national draft is going to be just as difficult for AFL clubs even though we saw a little more football than we did last year. You might not appreciate this if you pick up today’s newspaper or look at on line sites given that nearly every draft expert is predicting an identical top five as follows:- 1. Jason Horne-Francis (South Adelaide, SA) 2. Sam Darcy (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro) 3. Finn Callaghan (Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro) 4. Nick Daicos (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro) 5. Mac Andrew (Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country) You can just about lock that in as my draft top 5 for tonight but if you think that this is the order from 1 to 5 of the best players available in this year’s draft pool, then you need to think again. The outcome above is a combination of the machinations of the AFL draft system and the fact that drafting has been compromised by Covid19. Writing in the Herald Sun’s on line section (no link available), former Hawthorn star and “recruiting guru” Gary Buckenara cautioned that the limited number of games and the inability in 2020 and 2021 of recruiters to travel and see players playing live was a major issue. Often clubs have had to rely on the use of video analysis and local part time staff and this is not ideal. Buckenara maintains that the best way to form an opinion about players is to view their games in person. “You cannot actually pick up everything about a player by analysing videos and stats and relying on these two forms of analysis is lazy recruiting”. My reading of much of the draft coverage of the past week confirms this about many of the leading experts in the field. The pen pictures that have been posted about certain players bear such a resemblance to each other that it couldn’t be coincidental. So please forgive me for joining the lazy sheep in posting my top five as above. You would be aware by now that, despite his potential as a future player, I wouldn’t place over-hyped Melbourne’s NGA player, Mac Andrew, in my top twenty “power rating” but spare a thought for GWS Academy player Josh Fahey who will probably have to wait until tomorrow night to be drafted without much fanfare by the Giants in the 20s. Fahey was his team’s only four quarter player for the Australian Academy when it was thrashed by 130 points by Geelong VFL and named its best player. Andrew was unsighted in that game for three quarters but put in a solid final term which catapulted him into top twenty draft rankings. Good luck to both of them in 2022 when they start the season as equals in their quests for long AFL careers. The way things look at the moment, I’ll be cheering Blake Howes from my NAB Boys League club, the Sandy Dragons because most of the draft pundits have already decreed this to be the case.

How nice is it that the draft night is not one of the biggest things on our footy calendar?! We are not having to find the club’s saviour.

We view him as a key fwd:

Best available tall. Makes sense and Taylor is true to his word picking for needs.

Got our tickets and booked return flight Canberra / Melbourne. Can’t wait!

Got my tickets to the Grand Final, man, I hope we win. 🤞

Yay, I got a ticket! Thanks to @Olgreybeard49’s help, I can stop stressing. I don’t even care what part of the G, so long as I’m there. Soooo excited! ❤️💙❤️💙

The flu vax is not changed in any ways that need extended trials. It is safe because it’s a known, tested quantity, much like the current Covid vax, albeit this fact still escapes many. The cognitive dissonance, as you say, makes no sense. As to the ‘impact’ of flu compared to Covid discussed earlier, there’s a galaxy of difference. Covid kills with ~ 150 times more efficiency than the flu. It also, because of the need for hospital respiratory support in so many who do survive but get seriously sick, cripples health systems. The only quantities that need referencing in respect to flu and Covid are the R-0 number comparisons (Delta’s special skill), and deaths per 100,000 (or whatever number). These alone tell the story - relative infectiousness and mortality. A fascinating illustration of the AZ ‘fear f-up’ is the thankfully little-reported fact that the Pfizer vax causes pericarditis in > 50 people per million. Compare this to AZ’s ~4 people per million incidence of thrombocytopenia. Just like death, risk in life is certain. The problem is too many people being baffled by concepts of its relativity.

A Van comes and a Van goes...

Poor Ben Hobbs.

How things have changed these past few years. The Grand Final is now our GF, not draft day.

We hold Pick 17 in the draft (likely 19 after F/S picks) so I thought it was time to start a thread on this potential recruit. A key position player who can play at either end of the ground. Probably more known as a forward, but was named at CHB in the 2021 National U/18's team. From Claremont in WA hopefully he could be a vital cog in the future with all of B. Brown, M. Brown, McDonald, May and Tomlinson 28 or over at the start of next year. Cal Twomey had him at 21 in his phantom draft and said this about him. Forward/defender 194cm/88kg 16/4/03 Claremont/Western Australia Van Rooyen kicked the winning goal for Western Australia against South Australia in the under-19s clash last weekend having drifted forward late after spending most of the game in defence. It is that versatility which has improved the Claremont product's stocks across the year. van Rooyen played at senior level earlier this season whilst battling glandular fever but his past two months have impressed with his work ethic and capacity to play in key positions. Thoughts?  Towering forward ready to show his wares in Academy hitout JACOB VAN ROOYEN Twomey's Draft Team of the Year: WA tall grabs the limelight, SA son of a gun back in

Between listening to JT and Goody it’s obvious the club looks for certain character traits in its players. Fully expecting an announcement video for a new receptionist that begins with ‘we really like what Sharon brings with her competitiveness, desire for the contest and willingness to compete. She has excellent character, and leadership’.

I had him top 10 in my December 2020 draft:- 1. Jason Horne (Sth Adelaide, SA) 2. Nick Daicos (Oakleigh Chargers - Collingwood Father/Son) 3. Josh Rachele (Murray Bushrangers) 4. Josh Sinn (Sandringham Dragons) 5. Ben Hobbs (GWV Rebels) 6. Tyler Sonsie (Eastern Ranges) 7. Lachlan Brooks (Sandringham Dragons) 8. Jacob Van Rooyen (Claremont, WA) 9. Joshua Browne (East Fremantle, WA) 10. Campbell Chessar (Sandringham Dragons) Here is what some other experts had to say:- Cal Twomey van Rooyen booted 24 goals in the final six games of the colts season as a key forward but it is in defence where many clubs see the swingman's future. The Claremont product is a tireless worker and competitor, giving him an advantage as a key-position player at either end. The Lions could look to beef up their key-position stocks in van Rooyen. Owen Leonard The Claremont product holds a demonstrated ability to play at either end of the ground. He booted 30 goals in just eight games at colts level, proving how dangerous he is when deployed in attack, but many believe he plays his best football in the backline. His proficiency at either end of the ground — combined with his height of 194cm and his ready-made weight — means van Rooyen boasts a scarce skillset, particularly when compared to others in this draft pool. Chris Doerre Profile: Despite spending much of the year up forward -- providing a commanding marking target with his leap and aerial strength -- Van Rooyen's play when utilised in defence has been even better. Van Rooyen in defence takes intercept marks at will and with his one-on-one capabilities has proven difficult to beat.

Well … well … well

I've just had a look at his highlights reel and am now an absolute expert on him. I thought he moved a bit like Tom Lynch with his forward play.

Great get for this club. Big physical 195cm 88kg key forward who has also played down back. Had some insane numbers in the back end of the year in the colts level as a noted goal kicker. Welcome Jacob.

The Demons have taken Jacob Van Rooyen with Pick 19

Drafting bigger bodies. Huge savings for the chemistry department.

You know we won the flag when I only just realised it's draft night because Kayo popped up with a reminder on my phone. What a time to be alive!

I identify as a single hetero male but, according to the lasagne I heated up last night, I'm a family of four.

Not directly related to the Dees, but highly likely events (from what I have read): 1) a variety of live-pick trades in the first round and that affect the first round. eg GWS trade out their second pick for future picks. Lions bundle up their first 2 to move up the order, Hawthorn swap 21 and 24 to get another first round pick. Will Geelong bundle up 22 and 23 to get another first round pick. So a few surprises on the cards as to draft order (after the first 4/5) and who slides out of and who bolts in the first round. 2) Freo will be up all night fielding offers for pick 19 (pre F/S); the first pick tomorrow. Players who were in top 20 calculations that have already slid out of the top 20 by at least one of the more notable phantom drafters: Goater, Van Rooyen, Chesser, Draper, Butler. Others might join them. Plenty of clubs will want that pick 19. 3) Low-mid 20 picks will also be valuable for clubs who want a slider. Current holders of those picks are: 20 North Melbourne 21 Hawthorn 22 Geelong 23 Western Bulldogs (highly likely to trade it to Geelong for two 30-something picks) 24 Hawthorn Would be surprised if there isn't a bit wheeling and dealing with that lot!!

How can this book be depressing? No wurst than it’s German counterpart.

Don’t know what’s worse, not receiving my members code or being on hold on the phone to the club for 30 minutes and having the girl continually interrupting the playing of our song telling me ‘they are experiencing an extremely high volume of calls and my patience would be appreciated’……………….let me listen to the song without cutting in dammit Got through after 40 wonderful minutes on hold (not being facetious) listening to the theme song playing on a loop, minus the annoying interruption of being told the high volume of calls = waiting. As alluded to by @gwsampso, there has been a delay with AFL club support members getting their codes (but is being fixed at the minute). Those yet to receive their code, give the club membership line a call and they send an e-mail with your code instantly. Sure it’s 30+ minutes on hold, but there are worse ways to spend the time (FYI, just have the phone on loud speaker so everyone in the office can hear the song too 😀).

He was drafted by Taylor in the same draft as Oliver. I fail to see how he isn't categorised as a recruit of the Taylor era.

Unfortunately much of Van Rooyen's best forward work at WAFL colts level is not on freely available game tape, but he was dominant in multiple matches against mostly mediocre opponents. Most of his high-profile and watchable footage was played in key defence where, stylistically and in terms of trait, he is very reminiscent of Harry Petty - steady overhead, big wingspan and an effort player. It sounds like the club view him more as a key forward, where he projects to be more of a solid structural piece than a star, which is the question on him and why he is down at pick 19 - does he have the class and or athletic specialness to be a dominant AFL level key forward? I was surprised given the dearth of key position options that he was available at this pick. Think it's a sound list management pick but not necessarily a sexy decision. If he fails or is ineffective as forward, should at worst make it as a second or third key back.

Yes, but the words "leadership", "character" and a "real competitor" were all mentioned and that is straight out of the JT handbook.

Jacob Vanrooyen looks the goods, good size, welcome aboard young man.

Nailed it!

Our picks are now currently 19, 38, 42 and 50.

They’d have to be insane not to have multiple merchandise stands around, there could not be a better combination of factors for people buying stuff on impulse. Happiness, celebration, beer, and Christmas coming up!

That is really poor. They really should delay opening it up to the public until next week to ensure that members who want to go can get in first before non-believers.

great result; he'll be homesick in two years

With regards to Knightmare, in his postmortem of our 2019 draft he rated Melbourne equal last with 5 other clubs and 12 clubs ahead. He gave Melbourne a C. "While Melbourne's trade looks on paper like value was acquired, their first two picks of ruckman Luke Jackson and small forward pressure specialist Kysaiah Pickett are arguably reaches. Jackson, a sub 200cm ruckman is athletic, plays with aggression and follows up well but was arguably not the best available player. Similarly, Pickett while the forward pressure he applies is of a best in draft standard and he has speed and is damaging with ball in hand, his low scoreboard impact and product makes him a difficult sell so early on." Thankfully, he liked the Rivers pick. Amazingly, we have 3 premiership players from that draft, who were all staples of the 22. He was more encouraged by the team he supports, giving Collingwood an A. ''Jay Rantall represents strong value as a basketball convert with elite endurance who does his best work inside winning the contested ball, distributing by hand and moving through traffic. Oakleigh premiership captain Trent Bianco is a second selection who represents strong value as one of the best kicks in the draft and the most advanced outside player in the pool. Trey Ruscoe at 192cm with his versatility to play defence, midfield or forward, is a third solid selection with his skills, mobility, ball winning capabilities and the way he reads the ball in flight and takes marks.''

When I bought my personalised MFC number plates ( 57 MFC)about ten years ago, I didn't know 57 would be so significant. At the time, I chose 57 as it was the third of our hat trick of premierships. 55,56,57. Now, wouldn't it be wonderful if the latest 57 number would be the START of our next hat trick of premierships? Very possible I would think. Anyway, here's hoping. Go Demons!

Not just Freo's 19. The limited history of live trading has seen a lot of movement in behind that first pick of the second round in the early-to-mid 20s, and some pretty decent rewards offered up. Good players are undoubtedly going to slip in this draft, and that's why I think we should slide with them. We've been drafting a year ahead, have a mostly healthy list balance with an abundance of young talent, and have JT sitting at the desk. Oh, and we're the premiership front-runners. These factors, plus the extra uncertainty of recruiting during a pandemic, offer a unique opportunity and I believe we should attempt to cash in. Dangle 17 in front of Hawthorn for example to move back to the early second round at 21, and then dangle that again overnight to a mid-20's team such as Richmond if there are still players on the board we think are good value. Then maybe even go again. We could come out of it with a trio of mid second-round players or possibly even more across two drafts for the price of a 17. That's a potential return of Bowey, Sparrow and Fritsch or whatever else JT manages to uncover. Or we could pool our gains to take a stab at some genuine top-end talent next year during a period we're unlikely to have much in the way of natural draft cookies.

I get the impression we're focusing more on a replacement for Hibberd/Nev earlier on.

Bailey Laurie

What’s the latest with Van Rooyen? Will he be available at our pick? Have a hunch in this kid and is exactly the type of player we should be having a crack at. He is probably the the #2 or #3 forward of this years draft and could also play down back if he lacks forward craft. Will either take Mays or TMac spot in 2-3 years time.

Got this footy card from a friend who happened upon it in a store near Kyneton and it's sat on my desk since he gave it to me, Tassie played in our last premiership in 1964

"Rookie me" mock draft for the first round is out. https://central.rookieme.com/afl/2021/11/24/2021-rookie-me-central-afl-phantom-draft/ Has us taking Brown with Chesser as another option.

Van Rooyen has been one of my favourites since the start of the season and looks gettable by the club if you follow the draft experts most of who all seem to be singing from the same choir book on draft eve (the Herald Sun joined in the chorus today). The consensus is that he will be selected by Brisbane with the last selection in Round 1 tonight.

WOO HOO Looks sensational in the flesh (or frame)

As a footballer he's a beautifully balanced player who reads the game really well and uses speed off half back to really provide that dash and carry. He's also a great link up player who'll give off a hand ball and then spread hard to the next contest to provide as an extra option. Bit like what Ed Langdon does. Not only is his able to provide dash off half back, but is also able to lock down when needed, so already has good defensive mindset in his game For someone of his height and weight 186cm 71kg I don't think i have seen a more impressive player of his size that is able to take intercept contested marks down back. Has amazing reading of the game and just times himself in going for those intercept marks. It really does remind me of Jake Lever with this part of his game. The way I'm looking at this pick is its pretty much an apprentice role to Michael Hibberd or to release River/Bowey to a future midfield role. Off field he's a really driven kid who comes from a ripper family. Mooroopna boy who i can't speak highly enough.

Pretendergast

I think that there are a few levels to this. Firstly, it's really difficult to measure the quality of the contributions of each player drafted. There's no overarching, unifying metric which approximates how valuable a player has been (like, for example, WAR in baseball). All metric are imperfect but 'games played' is especially so. As an example Robbie Gray was drafted at pick 55 in the 2006 draft, won a Coach's Award in 2014 and was AA 4 times, won 3 B&Fs. On the other hand, David Mackay was drafted at 48 in the 2006 draft and his career highlight was the one game where he was awarded one Brownlow vote for his 23 possession game against Melbourne in 2015. Robbie Gray has played 255 games and David Mackay has played 248. Games is an imperfect metric for player value. But beyond that, there is a lot that rings true from the article. Midfielders, especially those that are contest winners, tend to be far easier to judge at the very top of the draft. This is because their games are more developed (they win contests against similarly developed peers) and the level of projection needed is very small. You only need to look at a tape of Horne-Francis for about 30 seconds to realise that he's a gun and that his game would translate to AFL footy easily even if he made minimal further improvements. But a tall needs to beat far stronger and developed opponents in one on one contests. It takes longer for those talls to develop the strength to compete against and eventually beat these older players. It's this additional level of physical development required of the taller players to play their role at AFL level that means there is a lot more faith required that they will develop as hoped. The more 'one on one' element there is to a player's game (eg, rucks, power forwards/defenders) the more development required and hence the greater risk you take that the player won't develop as hoped. As for the difference between picks 6-10 and 11-20, past the top 5 you are generally dealing with players with significant flaws to their game and a lot of it will come down to what the recruiters like/don't like or what sort of risk they are willing to take. Recruiters are picking their own poison in a way. With all these picks, would you rather the tall that needs development, the speedy mid that needs to build a tank, the small defender with limited further scope, the intercept defender who isn't a great kick ..... they all have strengths but also flaws, otherwise they'd be in the top 5. It isn't a raffle. It's more like picking stocks. The ones up the top are your biggest companies: they're expensive but you're a lot more certain that they'll keep being good companies for a while. You're much more likely to pick an Amazon or Apple, but there's also a small chance that you pick AMP. As you get further down the draft you start getting into smaller companies: they're cheap because they're flawed or the development is really uncertain. You're far less likely to pick a winner here, but there are almost always a few diamonds to be picked from the rough, if you're lucky and know what you're looking for.