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So I noticed something peculiar on the weekend, and especially so in the first quarter. The players kept losing complete track of the ball. Or were otherwise slower to the ground-ball contests, or not coming to meet it at its furthest point when marking. I think it bounced off May’s head at one stage, and someone even looked like they may have stepped on it (a la Glenn McGrath in that fateful warm-up calamity before the 2005 Ashes test at Edgbaston – or ‘No-edge-baston’ as I now like to call it, considering Kasprowicz didn’t even get any bat on it).* Anyway, it’s been kind of bugging me since, because I couldn’t work it out. Like what, are half the players suddenly going blind? And then finally it hit me. I checked the BOM’s light-meter readings for Melbourne for the afternoon of Saturday the 3rd of July and sure enough, they were 22 percent below the annual average. To make it worse, in typical AFL fixturing favouring their pet expansion sides, we were coming off a night match under lights, while GWS had the 1pm fixture the week before – just six days this side of the hibernal solstice. Basically, we were doomed by the gloom before even the first bounce, and it obviously took us three quarters before our eyes could fully adjust. My question is, why weren’t the lights put on at the MCG for the match? Like I get global warming and all, but surely it’s preferable the league find emissions savings elsewhere rather than undermine the integrity of the competition with one team clearly more disadvantaged by the poor visibility than the other. I dunno, maybe somehow melt the old balls down rather than deflating all that used air back into the atmosphere? The second thing I want to know then – who is responsible for sending us out in that blurry indigenous round guernsey when all you have to do is look out the window and realise our players are going to have trouble seeing each other in the dark and would be crying out for better contrast? I’m guessing it was Alan Richardson rather than the AFL on this one, or at least he should be the one to take responsibility. Already the week before we kept handpassing it straight to Essendon players due to the red flash of their sashes, like some bull in a Chinese shop. The thing is, how can we be expected to consistently perform if our colours aren’t consistent and the AFL keeps scheduling us in overcast day clashes against teams whose pupils have already had the chance to adjust in a match environment the week prior? Have you ever walked from the bright sunlight into the shade before? Now imagine that, but while also trying to pick out a dark-coloured egg-shaped ball bouncing through the air while Shane Mumford’s coming at you, possibly the most fearsome enforcer to ever play the game? All in all, we haven’t won a day match since back in Autumn, and it’s clear our form slump is related to having to play football in winter and likely some issues around melatonin loads (we should maybe tap Clarry for any management suggestions?). The upside though, while we can’t expect any fairness from Gillon and his cronies, this year’s Toyota AFL Finals Series in scheduled to commence in the first week of spring, with historical light-meter reading data for Melbourne suggesting that time of year to be generally brighter than in winter. *By the by, I met Michael Kasprowicz once when he was a celebrity judge at a regional charity cooking contest. I tried looking for a suitable opening to deploy my ‘no-edge-baston’ pun, and seriously mangled it when I said ‘no-eggs-basting’ when one of the contestants made a crème brule. It’s true in a sense, traditional Italian recipes usually don’t call for basting the eggs, but he didn’t really get how it related to him and then kind of silently indicated that as a judge he had better concentrate on the competition.

Not picking Brown after Essendon was a mistake, but an honest one - it was just one game. After 2 weeks in a row of poor forward connection, why compound the mistake? Just get him in, we all cried, and Goodwin did that. What do you want? A personally signed apology from Goodwin to you?

Fixed it*

Pressure is captured by champion data using a 6 tiered pressure rating applied to each opposition disposal: 0) No pressure - Most often after an opposition mark 1) No pressure but in open play, ie a fast break on the wing with no opposition within 15 meters 2a) Corralling pressure - guarding their immediate space but not coming at them 2b) Closing pressure - In their face and closing in on them but front on 2c) Chasing pressure - Influencing the disposal/decision to dispose of the ball through chasing pressure from behind 3) Physical pressure - bumping, tackling or pushing the player as the disposal is made. It is a significant red alert when our pressure is down, and comes down to a combination of fatigue and will. I'm sure Goodwin is bringing this up in team meetings and I expect a response on Thursday night.

You're weird. I like it.

Must have got a ticket to the game

I think @Skuit is 100% correct - the lights came on at the ground towards the end of the 2nd quarter (I remember showing my daughter they were now on), from that point we kicked 5.8 to the giants 3.4. Goody even said it was a game of 2 halves, lights off-lights on!

The good thing about Brown playing is that he has an outside chance of marking one of tracc's passes given his height. Any other player and it is kicked a foot over their head. Come to think of it he missed Max by a foot in rbe ladt q, so perhaps Brown needs to pop Charlie on his shoulders

Yes, Petty is markedly better (and has done nothing wrong since coming into the side to warrant being dropped). No, Smith is not "great with lock down". He is Frost-level unpredictable which is the last thing we want or need in our backline. Unless he's significantly changed how he plays, Smith is the wrong answer to a question that isn't even being asked.

When i saw the title i thought this was going to be another hysterical chicken little thread. Thank heavens for small mercies

Was about to post this in the Rd17 Changes thread just as it closed... From the OP

If May, Lever or Petty pull up sore in the warm up and can't play then we need cover in the emergencies. M.Brown, Tomlinson and Hore are all injured and Bradtke is playing CHB for Casey. It makes sense to take Smith as one of four emergencies - the only other feasible options would be Majak and he's been rucking or Weid and move TMac back but that's out there too. So Smith, Daw or Weid - take your pick ... If May, Lever or Petty pull up sore in the warm up and can't play and we didn't take cover in the emergencies there would be uproar here!

Reasons are not excuses. Our bottom 4-6 is every bit as good as that of the tigers in their premiership seasons. As is our top 10. They won those flags becuase of their system. And complete buy in to the system and preparedness by every player to play their assigned role. It is worth noting that in 2017, 2019 and 2020, at the end of the home and away the tigers finished 3rd (15-7), 3rd (16-6) and 3rd (12-4-1). Which is unsurprising given their ballistic model, like ours, is all but impossible to keep at the level week in week out. Which by the by is something they never tied to do. Their run to he flags started each year from about now We absolutely have the team to win the flag this year.

Anyone surprised there's been nothing on the MFC website around our captain Max Gawns 150th game?

If you apply Occam's razor to the question of why our pressure has dropped of, the answer i come up with is that we are fatigued. We play a very taxing game that is very tiring. And it is logical pressure falls away when the team is fatigued. I reject the idea it is something as vague as a lack of effort. They might be mentally tired, but I don't reckon that is a huge factor. To me the real question is why are we fatigued? We have a number of young players. It is the point of the season that all teams start feeling fatigued, particularly younger teams. But again I suspect we are doing extra training loads and that is a big factor.

I've had the inside word on our preferred target and I can't believe it's not Butters.

I'm currently working on a personal side-project (which might one day become a book) where I'm going through all the classics of military theory and collecting the notes and quotes which may be of interest from a football perspective. It has been a very interesting ride with a slightly surprisingly huge amount of content on cultivating behaviours, understanding the hearts of men, the nature of courage and panic, all that. There's also, of course, an awful lot on using tactics to take the initiative in a battle or at campaign level. In all of that, one thing I've never, ever come across is an endorsement of a tactic which allows your opponent to not have to worry about dealing with a counter-attack. Multiple authors have gone into quite angry rants about the psychological death that comes from having troops deployed in a strictly defensive posture. It is often described as the product of cowardice and (in various terms) groupthink on the part of officers and senior commanders who can only think in terms of simple risk and who are intimidated by the danger to their reputation if they attempt something bold and it fails. Doing the same as everyone else incurs little reputational risk even when it does fail. I think Australian football has very much fallen into that trap when it comes to pressing all the numbers back to defence and leaving a vacated forward line. For this example the situation is precisely the same in football as in the military theory; having a force deployed in a way that can threaten multiple crucial enemy positions compels the enemy to protect ALL of the various positions that force might attack, thus forcing them to distribute both garrison forces to provide delaying strength as well as an 'observation' force at least as strong as your offensive force, ready to respond. The analogy to football is pretty clear; if you have one or two forwards stay 'home' even when the ball is up the other end of the ground, the opposition then has to consider the full range of places those forwards might become a threat. Got a CHF in position? Are they going to lead out to provide a connection? In the corridor, on the wings? Are they going to lurk around the 50m line ready to provide a short lead marking target or to suddenly break towards goal to run onto the long bomb to space over their head? Even on that simple level of consideration, that one forward has just forced the opposition defence to actively consider about a hectare of the field as under threat. A second forward doesn't expand the range as much but it also makes planning that defence even more complicated. Key is - your opponents MUST respond, or they would just be giving away goals every time you broke out of defence. #letforwardsbeforwards !!!

Hopefully he's given a few weeks. See how his tank is, but also see how the small forwards operate around him etc

2016 to 2019 Ben Brown's contested mark totals were 49, 43, 36, 35, which were ranked 5th, 7th, 12th, 15th in the league. Not sure he is not renowned for it based on that. Would also argue North's decline are reflected in the slight drop off in numbers.

…in more ways than one. ?

The beauty of Demonland is the people like @Skuit who delve into deep analysis, that not even the boffins at Champion Data(tm) would contemplate. This is why I love this place - perhaps this could have been in the Game Plan, Tactics, all that Jazz thread? ?

have you been at the cooking sherry

It will be hard to move Dew.... I like the idea of Pies and Clarko. Misery deserves company

That’s Stewie Dew.

Apparently the last time Brown played Port he kicked 10 , back in late 2019 https://www.afl.com.au/news/130663/ben-bags-10-brown-leads-roos-slaughter-of-powerless-port

If it comes with flowers and a card, no. If it's a slab of beer, okay.

People expecting loads of changes are kidding themselves. We are still 12-3. We are still second. You don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. We made a big structural change with Brown. That’s enough.

Bevo might have been thinking of Matthew Elliott. As the saying went at the time, "If you drink and run, you're a bloody Elliott!".

1000% Petty is better. He is better one on one and he is a better reader of the ball. He is also a better size to take on a big forward. Besides, Joel won't replace Petty. If anything he would come in to cover Lever or Salem. And if that happens we are at least 99.5% worse off!

There is just one change. Ben Brown in for Tom Sparrow. Must say that I am really surprised that rather than give Sparrow a rest OR a confidence boosting run at Casey, the "brains trust" has elected to take him to Adelaide along with Jake Melksham as the 2 extras.

Could be something in this. Can't recall what time the Adelaide loss was played but our other two losses were during the gloom of the day. Perhaps we have a few vampires on our team.

If he goes he goes...he's not the messiah, just part of a good coaching group with us. We look to someone else. For the life of me I never understand how we over blow someones achievements to be almost god like when they are just doing a good job. There will always be someone else around who can do a good or better job. Just not the same...cut and paste this to the Burgess thread or anyone else on the way out.

Prime time games played by Melbourne this year: Saturday night vs St Kilda - win ANZAC Eve vs Richmond - win Saturday night vs Sydney - win Friday night vs Bulldogs - win Friday night vs Brisbane - win Queen's Birthday vs Collingwood - loss Saturday night vs Essendon - win I don't think prime time TV has been a problem for us, with two of our three losses on Fox.

Top 5 demonland poster @Skuit

The 14 marks inside 50s can be a misdirect. How deep were those marks? We’re they in the pocket? Who was marking them? Ie. Charlie Spargo yelling a screaming for the footy 45 out is as helpful as kicking it backwards…

Williams: "I don't want to be a head coach anymore and I'm enjoying my time at Melbourne" Media: WILLIAMS TO COLLINGWOOD

Don’t worry we will still have Goodwin.

That sounds like the peak MFCSS scenario.

The Adelaide loss was our third most accurate scoreline of the year. The trouble with that game was that Adelaide kicked an unsustainable 15.6. Walker, Fogarty and Co couldn’t miss that day. Collingwood kicked 11.14 and outscored us by 7 shots. It was a genuinely deserved loss by the Dees. Last week was the game where our inaccuracy absolutely cost us a game of footy.