Melbourne’s First Pick

[Whispering_Jack 28,094]

This Herald Sun article asks what each club will do with its first pick -

Ultimate guide: What will your club do with its first pick?

It’s early days still, but this is what the author says about the Demons:

MELBOURNE

Current Indicative Draft Order: 5, 15, 24, 34, 89

As it stands, the Demons hold two of the first 15 selections in this draft. That's because they secured Fremantle's first-round selection last year as part of the trade that sent ruckman-forward Luke Jackson to the Dockers. There have been indications that Melbourne could package up picks to move up the order.

However, if they hold onto pick five - which could become pick six or seven - it would still put them in the frame for a high-end talent. If exciting forwards Zane Duursma and Nick Watson are already off the board, the Demons could look at 192cm marking forward Nate Caddy to try and bolster their tall forward stocks into the future. If Melbourne wants to look to life after Steven May and Jake Lever, Connor O'Sullivan would also be in the mix as a big-bodied 198cm key defender who has had an outstanding season.
 

[whatwhat say what 19,732]

will o'sullivan last until what is, at this stage, pick 15?

[Roost it far 6,241]

13 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

will o'sullivan last until what is, at this stage, pick 15?

He may but he won’t last till pick 18

[TRIGON 4,719]

21 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

will o'sullivan last until what is, at this stage, pick 15?

According to the latest ESPN AFL Draft Rankings that looks unlikely. The other tall defender that's in the mix, Ollie Murphy, could be there or thereabouts.

Should this be in a thread of it's own - Melbourne's 2nd Pick?

Edited August 31, 2023 by TRIGON

[deelusions from afar 1,619]

Say we managed to get pick 4 from Gold Coast and weren't packaging up for 4 and 5 for Reid, can people see us picking who we want at 4 (whatever it ends up at) and then trading 5 back to 8-12 to get O'Sullivan (if we rate him) and say a future 2nd round pick?

[Davos 738]

Gut feel tells me that O'Sullivan will be the pick if we get wiped out and Reid, Duursma, McKercher and Curtin are gone. 

 

Don't reckon that will be considered a reach by draft time either - I feel he's being slept on a bit at the minute. 

 

Keen to get your thoughts on this @dazzledavey36

[Palace Dees 2,064]

On 8/31/2023 at 7:07 AM, Whispering_Jack said:

This Herald Sun article asks what each club will do with its first pick -

Ultimate guide: What will your club do with its first pick?

It’s early days still, but this is what the author says about the Demons:

MELBOURNE

Current Indicative Draft Order: 5, 15, 24, 34, 89

As it stands, the Demons hold two of the first 15 selections in this draft. That's because they secured Fremantle's first-round selection last year as part of the trade that sent ruckman-forward Luke Jackson to the Dockers. There have been indications that Melbourne could package up picks to move up the order.

However, if they hold onto pick five - which could become pick six or seven - it would still put them in the frame for a high-end talent. If exciting forwards Zane Duursma and Nick Watson are already off the board, the Demons could look at 192cm marking forward Nate Caddy to try and bolster their tall forward stocks into the future. If Melbourne wants to look to life after Steven May and Jake Lever, Connor O'Sullivan would also be in the mix as a big-bodied 198cm key defender who has had an outstanding season.
 

I am very keen to get O'Sullivan. His highlights package is super. He really has a presence.  Our game plan is designed around our key defenders and this kid looks the heir apparent to May. There are half a dozen plus mid fielders in the top ten every year, but not so CHB's. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Palace Dees

[ChaserJ 4,009]

On 8/31/2023 at 10:38 AM, whatwhat say what said:

will o'sullivan last until what is, at this stage, pick 15?

Not likely. He’s part of a group of 8 players at the top that are considered the upper rung of the crop. Next best kpd behind Curtin and now being speculated that he could go as high as 6 (a couple of murmurings suggest we have interest).

If we nab pick 4 from GC and take those picks to the draft, I strongly suspect O’Sullivan would be selected with one of those picks.

Alternatively, that could be a selling point if we’re trying to trade up with a club that is willing to deal and is also keen to add height at this draft.

 

[dazzledavey36 49,378]

On 8/31/2023 at 11:30 AM, Davos said:

Gut feel tells me that O'Sullivan will be the pick if we get wiped out and Reid, Duursma, McKercher and Curtin are gone. 

 

Don't reckon that will be considered a reach by draft time either - I feel he's being slept on a bit at the minute. 

 

Keen to get your thoughts on this @dazzledavey36

Clubs like him as does Melbourne and have conducted an interview with him. But lets remember they also conduct 50 other interviews with draft prospects around the country. 

Having spoken to his assistant coaches at Murray Bushrangers land, they're getting feedback that clubs inside top 10 are strongly considering Sully.

[Supreme_Demon 3,020]

We are definitely spoilt for choice with who ever we pick.

I recall Jason Taylor saying previously that he and the rest of the MFC recruiting team do (multiple?) mock drafts before the "real stuff" of the actual AFL National Draft.

I am happy to just pretend to be an amateur draft "expert" who got hooked on watching AFL National Drafts way back in 1997 when the Demons took Travis Johnstone with our number 1# Draft pick.

[Travy14 1,564]

I really really like Duursma, but he looks like he will go 2 or 3

[jnrmac 19,327]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:26 PM, Supreme_Demon said:

We are definitely spoilt for choice with who ever we pick.

I recall Jason Taylor saying previously that he and the rest of the MFC recruiting team do (multiple?) mock drafts before the "real stuff" of the actual AFL National Draft.

I am happy to just pretend to be an amateur draft "expert" who got hooked on watching AFL National Drafts way back in 1997 when the Demons took Travis Johnstone with our number 1# Draft pick.

One thing we know from Jackson and Pickett is that the club will take the players it needs and rate.  Both Jackson and Pickett were valued way behind the picks they were taken.  

We copped heat for our picks because "no one takes a ruckman at 3" and pickett was ranked as low a 30 by a few.

Taylor and Lamb will be all over this and we will get good players regardless of where others rank them.

[Lucifers Hero 37,328]

To get the player we want we need to get ahead of Hawthorn who nominally hold ND3.  We have a better chance of doing that if North get ND 3 as FA comp for McKay and Hawthorn slides to ND4.

If North get ND3, I have a hunch they will trade it.  Either because the AFL will make that condition as it did last year.  Or they will want two more first round picks (in addition to ND2 they have).

But Hawthorn will also try and trade up for the player they want.

Makes for an interesting cat and mouse game for the top draft picks!!

 

[Ouch! 2,043]

6 hours ago, Travy14 said:

I really really like Duursma, but he looks like he will go 2 or 3

Really?  most people have Curtin, Reid, Walters going in top 3 from what i've seen Duursma is around the mark with Sanders, McKercher and the other GC academy picks. Unless something has changed recently?

Edited September 5, 2023 by Ouch!

[Travy14 1,564]

Reid will go 1 and 2 will be Walters who is an academy player. Then its Duursma, he is a powerful goal kicking Midfielder in the mold of a Petracca/Dusty but bigger. 

Many have him going three as Walters will essentially be soaked up by GC later picks.

Curtin is only linked to 1 because he is a WA boy and the eagles want him, he isn't as highly rated as the others you have named. 

It does all depend on who WC take with 1, if they keep it and who NM take with their pick and compo pick for McKay which we don't know what it is yet.  If they have 2 picks before us they will most probably take Duursma i think

[old55 21,649]

1 hour ago, Ouch! said:

Really?  most people have Curtin, Reid, Walters going in top 3 from what i've seen Duursma is around the mark with Sanders, McKercher and the other GC academy picks. Unless something has changed recently?

Cal Twomey has Duursma at 3 and Watson at 5 in his August Phantom Form Guide, that doesn't mean that's where he'll end up in November and it's not a Phantom Draft anyway - that's something Twomey does separately based on teams' preferences and not Twomey's outright rating.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1009306/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-august-ranking

[Nascent 7,474]

1 hour ago, Ouch! said:

Really?  most people have Curtin, Reid, Walters going in top 3 from what i've seen Duursma is around the mark with Sanders, McKercher and the other GC academy picks. Unless something has changed recently?

Duursma has been dominating the back end of the Coates Talent League and looks to be realising the potential people thought he had after starting the season off a little inconsistent.

Definitely in the mix for top 3.

[Tony Tea 2,792]

If Tayles and the recruiting crew think Nick Watson is competitive enough to cut it in league footy, and that lack of size is not an issue, a I'd have him. Players who can manufacture goals out of broken play are gold.

[old55 21,649]

6 minutes ago, Tony Tea said:

If Tayles and the recruiting crew think Nick Watson is competitive enough to cut it in league footy, and that lack of size is not an issue, a I'd have him. Players who can manufacture goals out of broken play are gold.

I agree, I know nothing first hand about U18 details, but on the reports a Watson + O'Sullivan double could be handy.

[Demon Disciple 11,139]

Would love Watson. His impact would be felt immediately.

[Redleg 38,053]

51 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

Would love Watson. His impact would be felt immediately.

Watson in and Laurie staying, with Woey improving, would probably see one our small forwards, possibly Spargo, seeking a trade, imo.

[old55 21,649]

1 hour ago, Redleg said:

Watson in and Laurie staying, with Woey improving, would probably see one our small forwards, possibly Spargo, seeking a trade, imo.

That would be in 2024 though because trade precedes draft.

[Binmans PA 26,511]

2 hours ago, old55 said:

I agree, I know nothing first hand about U18 details, but on the reports a Watson + O'Sullivan double could be handy.

Yep, I only really know what I read on here, but those two seem the most tantalising players for us IMO, outside of Reid anyway.