The Run Home

[Lucifers Hero 37,227]

1 minute ago, Redleg said:

Do you make charts or graphs for a living?

I couldn't do it and wouldn't have the patience either.

Well done. 

Thank you.

It is the simplest Excel Table possible.  Takes no time at all.

Just a reordering of the AFL Fixture in Ladder order, using the 'copy/paste' function.  Then add red and blue and some random colours for highlights.

Same approach for the 'Contracts' Table.

[Billy 2,011]

On 5/29/2023 at 11:33 AM, dl4e said:

We are not playing well. I think we may struggle to make the 8. See what happens this week against Carlton.

Negative post of the season, you should be Captain Coach of Demonlanders  

[58er 5,632]

On 6/4/2023 at 1:17 PM, Sydney_Demon said:

I'm surprised that we are ranked so highly in those team rankings. Having said that, I think that our losses to Port & Fremantle and the closeness of our game against Carlton were significantly due to poor goal kicking. Assuming a reversion to the mean I'm hoping that wil turn around!

For me St Kilda are currently not trending well but will go ahead of us if they beat Sydney and we lose to Collingwood. Both those games are 50/50 I think. Our percentage is a big factor because we should be ahead of whoever finishes on the same number of wins as us at season's end. I agree with you that finishing 2nd would be brilliant as we would be playing either Port or Brisbane in Melbourne and then if we win Port or Brisbane again in a Prelim. Also I don't think Brisbane or Port are unbeatable away in a Qualifying or Preliminary Final.

Check the ladder please SD  If we lose to Pies and Saints win (no great certainty) then our % would still have us above them.

Granted they would have a match in hand but its no certainty that they will take advantage of this. Crucial game at Marvel vs Saints might be decider for Top4 later in season.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

2 minutes ago, 58er said:

Check the ladder please SD  If we lose to Pies and Saints win (no great certainty) then our % would still have us above them.

Granted they would have a match in hand but its no certainty that they will take advantage of this. Crucial game at Marvel vs Saints might be decider for Top4 later in season.

Sorry 58er. I was getting a bit ahead of myself. St Kilda would need to beat Richmond in R14 to get a game clear. So they need to win the next 2 weeks and we need to lose against Collingwood. I agree St Kilda are no certainty against either Sydney or Richmond. I don't see St Kilda as our biggest threat long-term.

[Vipercrunch 2,816]

I'm almost certainly alone with this, but I think a team with a talented list like ours can win the flag from outside the top 4 if they get their preparation right.  I actually think with the current finals structure, there is very little difference finishing 4th to finishing 5th and 6th.  Nailing the preparation fitness wise, being in form and having the right players available is more important than ladder position.  I certainly won't be giving up hope of a flag if we don't make top 4.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Vipercrunch

[dino rover 625]

On 5/30/2023 at 10:19 PM, WalkingCivilWar said:

What’s logical to one person might be illogical to another. Perception being reality, who’s to say which of these two people are right?

From now on you want to be called Loretta right?

 

[58er 5,632]

1 minute ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Sorry 58er. I was getting a bit ahead of myself. St Kilda would need to beat Richmond in R14 to get a game clear. So they need to win the next 2 weeks and we need to lose against Collingwood. I agree St Kilda are no certainty against either Sydney or Richmond. I don't see St Kilda as our biggest threat long-term.

I don't either Syd but beating them at Marvel would be a great fillip for the Top4 positions available.

I am very bullish after Frid night. Players that looked and played best and looked back to 2012 form and who are crucial to our cause were Fritta (very lively and jumpinh high for marks Would have got 4/5 goals if kicked straight. Should have handballed to Kyle for proper team play.

The others were Maysie and Rick Lever. Both looked in touch and obviously 3 genuine talls give them both much more confidence. Also Salo looked in good touch and his disposal was nearly back to its best. And Maxy came good in the last quarter and made sure we wouldnt lose.

Very impressed with both Judd and Rooy. Will be very disappointed if one or the other is not the Rising Star this week.  hard for them to perform at that level but both are at their stage and age fantastic chouces from JT and AL and both look like special players for our future.  Rooy is a generational player in the making IMO as he is so competitive and has so many strings to his bow.

Judd is just like Bowser he hardly makes an error and is a great team man and attacking player form our defence. He just won't stay still once he has the ball and plays on to our advantage.  They are two AA players of the future and future leadership options as they develop more.

[WalkingCivilWar 32,827]

11 minutes ago, dino rover said:

From now on you want to be called Loretta right?

 

I have no idea what this means. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

4 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:

I'm almost certainly alone with this, but I think a team with a talented list like ours can win the flag from outside the top 4 if they get their preparation right.  I of course hope we do finsih top 4, but I actually think with the current finals structure, there is very little difference finishing 4th to finishing 5th and 6th.  Nailing the preparation fitness wise, being in form and having the right players available is more important than ladder position.  I certainly won't be giving up hope of a flag if we don't make top 4.

@WheeloRatings has premiership odds for each ladder position as:

1: 31%
2: 24%
3: 17%
4: 14%
5: 5%
6: 4%
7: 3%
8: 2%

Assuming no home ground advantage, each team has equal ability, etc. etc. (i.e. a 50/50 chance for each game) the odds are 18.75% for positions 1-4, 6.25% for positions 5-8. I know Western Bulldogs came from 7th in 2016, but for 22 of the past 23 years (basically the current finals system) the winner has come from the top 3. Whichever way you look at it it's indisputable that there's a huge difference between 4th & 5th. I know there's been a lot of rubbish written over the past 2 years that Richmond can win from anywhere and the same thinking this year for Geelong. Maybe they're exceptional teams but any team from outside the Top 4 has the odds stacked against it.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

12 minutes ago, 58er said:

I don't either Syd but beating them at Marvel would be a great fillip for the Top4 positions available.

I am very bullish after Frid night. Players that looked and played best and looked back to 2012 form and who are crucial to our cause were Fritta (very lively and jumpinh high for marks Would have got 4/5 goals if kicked straight. Should have handballed to Kyle for proper team play.

The others were Maysie and Rick Lever. Both looked in touch and obviously 3 genuine talls give them both much more confidence. Also Salo looked in good touch and his disposal was nearly back to its best. And Maxy came good in the last quarter and made sure we wouldnt lose.

Very impressed with both Judd and Rooy. Will be very disappointed if one or the other is not the Rising Star this week.  hard for them to perform at that level but both are at their stage and age fantastic chouces from JT and AL and both look like special players for our future.  Rooy is a generational player in the making IMO as he is so competitive and has so many strings to his bow.

Judd is just like Bowser he hardly makes an error and is a great team man and attacking player form our defence. He just won't stay still once he has the ball and plays on to our advantage.  They are two AA players of the future and future leadership options as they develop more.

Love your positivity 58er! I agree with you about Judd McVee especially. He has been a revelation. He's seems to have so much time, makes great decisions under pressure, and has elite skills. I watched most Casey games last year and didn't see this coming. He's probably proof that different types of players with attributes that make you an AFL player don't necessarily star at VFL level where those skills aren't so crucial. I also agree that JVR's game this week was a big step up. 
    

[YearOfTheDees 3,106]

27 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

I have no idea what this means. 

what I want to be a woman from now on I want you all to call me Loretta. what it's my right as a man well why'd you want to be Loretta. Stan. I want to have babies

You want to have babies , you can't have babies

Don't oppress me.

[Vipercrunch 2,816]

3 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

@WheeloRatings has premiership odds for each ladder position as:



Assuming no home ground advantage, each team has equal ability, etc. etc. (i.e. a 50/50 chance for each game) the odds are 18.75% for positions 1-4, 6.25% for positions 5-8. I know Western Bulldogs came from 7th in 2016, but for 22 of the past 23 years (basically the current finals system) the winner has come from the top 3. Whichever way you look at it it's indisputable that there's a huge difference between 4th & 5th. I know there's been a lot of rubbish written over the past 2 years that Richmond can win from anywhere and the same thinking this year for Geelong. Maybe they're exceptional teams but any team from outside the Top 4 has the odds stacked against it.

I would love to know why any useful analysis of chances of sucsess would make those assumptions.  We spend an entire season to put the teams in order, so why do this sort of analysis with them as equal?  1st playing 4th at home clearly has a better than 50:50 chance of winning, as does 5th playing 8th.

AFL.com only have records going back to 2012, but in 7 of those 11 seasons (64%), at least one team outside the top 4 has made the PF, so ladder position after the H&A is clearly not the be all and end all.  Last year we finsihed 2nd but our fitness and form was way off and we went out in straight sets.

 

 

[WalkingCivilWar 32,827]

1 hour ago, dino rover said:

From now on you want to be called Loretta right?

 

 

50 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

I have no idea what this means. 

 

20 minutes ago, YearOfTheDees said:

what I want to be a woman from now on I want you all to call me Loretta. what it's my right as a man well why'd you want to be Loretta. Stan. I want to have babies

You want to have babies , you can't have babies

Don't oppress me.

Thanks for the explanation, YearOfTheDees. However, I’m still none the wiser as to what that has to do with anything. Ever the inquisitive one, I’m hoping Dino can…

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

44 minutes ago, YearOfTheDees said:

what I want to be a woman from now on I want you all to call me Loretta. what it's my right as a man well why'd you want to be Loretta. Stan. I want to have babies

You want to have babies , you can't have babies

Don't oppress me.

https://www.google.com/search?q=loretta+skit+life+of+brian&rlz=1C1UEAD_en-GBAU987AU987&oq=loretta+skit+life+of+brian&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30.12160j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:81dd24a9,vid:jlo7YZW8vPA

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

1 hour ago, Vipercrunch said:

I would love to know why any useful analysis of chances of sucsess would make those assumptions.  We spend an entire season to put the teams in order, so why do this sort of analysis with them as equal?  1st playing 4th at home clearly has a better than 50:50 chance of winning, as does 5th playing 8th.

AFL.com only have records going back to 2012, but in 7 of those 11 seasons (64%), at least one team outside the top 4 has made the PF, so ladder position after the H&A is clearly not the be all and end all.  Last year we finsihed 2nd but our fitness and form was way off and we went out in straight sets.

I'm not saying those odds are correct. I stated them because simple mathematics which anyone can understand produces the numbers. It beats sticking your finger up in the air and taking a guess:

5th to 8th have to win 4 games in a row: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 or 6.25%
1st to 4th win 3 games in a row: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 or lose the 1st then 3 games in a row: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16. 1/8 + 1/16 = 3/16 or 18.75%

It overstate the odds of lower teams winning (as you've said). Wheelo's odds make more sense to me. What both show is that  it's very difficult to win from 5th or below because you have to win 4 matches. 

A sample of 11 years is tiny but putting that aside for the moment, every year there are 2 semi-finals, featuring one losing qualifying finalist and 1 winning elimination finalist. There have been 22 games. The losing qualifying finalist would be favourites most times, but even assuming say a 30% chance of the lower team winning (let alone 50%) that produces 6.6 (7 rounded up) winners. So the numbers you have quoted don't surprise me. That doesn't equate to winning a premiership. It means you've won the first 2 of 4 games (the easiest 2 in reality).

I'm not saying statistics are infallible. Obviously some teams finishing 5th to 8th are better than others. Some teams finishing 2nd are worse than others (or have injury concerns). Playing home/away finals comes into it so it depends which teams from which State finish where and who they play. Top 4 sides going out in straight sets would be expected to be pretty common (as there's 4 teams in this category every year, 2 of them lose qualifiers, and play in semis where they can potentially go out even as favourites).

In summary, anyone can win who makes the finals, just like any horse can win that's entered in a race. The reality is in the past 23 years there have been 8 winners who were minor premiers, 7 winners from 2nd, 7 winners from 3rd, 1 from 7th. Lots of lower teams gave made prelims, even grand finals (most recently Western Bulldogs in 2021) but the evidence/statistical analysis s strongly support the fact that a Top 4 finish is pretty much crucial. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Sydney_Demon
Typo

[Engorged Onion 9,410]

On the appointment of Big Ange.

 

Good to see supporter pessimism is a global phenomenon...

Edited June 5, 2023 by Engorged Onion

[layzie 29,296]

16 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Thank you.

It is the simplest Excel Table possible.  Takes no time at all.

Just a reordering of the AFL Fixture in Ladder order, using the 'copy/paste' function.  Then add red and blue and some random colours for highlights.

Same approach for the 'Contracts' Table.

They say a genius makes complicated things look simple 🙂

Seriously though it's a good skill to have.

[Lucifers Hero 37,227]

13 minutes ago, layzie said:

They say a genius makes complicated things look simple 🙂

Seriously though it's a good skill to have.

Love you too, Layzie ❤️💙.

A simple Excel table earns me such undeserved flattery, albeit in jest!.  But I'll take it.🙃

Edited June 5, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[adonski 9,231]

16 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Love your positivity 58er! I agree with you about Judd McVee especially. He has been a revelation. He's seems to have so much time, makes great decisions under pressure, and has elite skills. I watched most Casey games last year and didn't see this coming. He's probably proof that different types of players with attributes that make you an AFL player don't necessarily star at VFL level where those skills aren't so crucial. I also agree that JVR's game this week was a big step up. 
    

I think the style of player that he is doesn't really suit the slog of VFL 

[Kent 2,605]

I have a view that after Fridays solid if wasteful game

The Dees will beat Collingwood and easily account for subsequent teams to finish 1 or 2 

Team and Goodwin is timing the run home

Watch this space The Dees will play grand final !!!

[Lucifers Hero 37,227]

On 6/5/2023 at 3:31 PM, Redleg said:

Do you make charts or graphs for a living?

I couldn't do it and wouldn't have the patience either.

Well done. 

Not directly nor even indirectly related but this comment reminds me of one of my pet hates of how poor the typical AFL sports writer is at presenting info.  Sometimes, it is necessary to scroll through reams of data when they could put it into a table and it be so much more easily understood.

eg Fox footy have 15 tipsters fox-footy-afl-tipping-for-round-11-2023-expert-tips and there are about 10 pages on a laptop to scroll through.   Many many more on a mobile device.

How much more meaningful would this be:

And that is without making it 'pretty'.

It isn't just Fox - all mainstream AFL outlets do a very poor job converting data to information in easily digestible formats.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[Engorged Onion 9,410]

39 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not directly nor even indirectly related but this comment reminds me of one of my pet hates of how poor the typical AFL sports writer is at presenting info.  Sometimes, it is necessary to scroll through reams of data when they could put it into a table and it be so much more easily understood.

eg Fox footy have 15 tipsters fox-footy-afl-tipping-for-round-11-2023-expert-tips and there are about 10 pages on a laptop to scroll through.   Many many more on a mobile device.

How much more meaningful would this be:

And that is without making it 'pretty'.

It isn't just Fox - all AFL outlets do a very poor job converting data to information in easily digestible formats.

One of my favourite Ted talks of all time :) - (have I ever mentioned I've stood on the red dot as well?)

 

[Lucifers Hero 37,227]

19 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

One of my favourite Ted talks of all time :) - (have I ever mentioned I've stood on the red dot as well?)

 

Thank you.  Excellent!! Hadn't heard of him before.  I can 100% identify with what he says.

I guess being a 'visual learner' makes it easier for me to see the info in data and relationships between different sets of info.  Excel and other tools help present it in more digestible formats.

But I didn't hear him speak of the 'red dot'.  A 'red dot' for me is when a piece of art in an exhibition is sold....

[Demonstone 19,421]

22 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

have I ever mentioned I've stood on the red dot as well?

[Lucifers Hero 37,227]

3 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

This looks trickier than your brainteasers, Mr D!

What am I missing about the red dot (when not in an art gallery)??