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The Run Home



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3 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

This looks trickier than your brainteasers, Mr D!

What am I missing about the red dot (when not in an art gallery)??

The red dot is what you stand on in a Ted Talk... and I guess from 'Keef', it's a reference to a Bindi.

Edited by Engorged Onion
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Just now, Demonstone said:

Ever seen a cat chasing and trying to catch a red dot directed from a laser pointer?

That is cruel...I take it you aren't fond of animals...

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Updated for round 13.

I've added the Home Ground for each game as it clearly is an advantage for Lions, Crows and Cats.

image.png.e8db54defb8557cc4317c30100e783e9.png

Comments:

  • Our %'age counts for an extra game lead so two games ahead of Brisbane, Saints and Bombers and three ahead of the rest of top 8 teams..
  • Today has reinforced my view that Top 2 is on for us. 
  • On paper we have the east draw with one top 4 team and 3 from 5 to 11 teams.
  • On paper Lions, Cats and Pies have the toughest draw.
  • Pies are on top but not in top form.  Have a challenging run for a while playing a lot of teams desperate to consolidate their spot in the top 8.  Could they slip from Top 2.
  • It is the teams sitting 4 to 11 that will determine the bottom half of the top 8.  Expect some big games amonst them.
  • All the teams from 12 to 17 could cause a bit of damage.
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@WheeloRatings now has us finishing 3rd, up from 4th, and our Premiership favouritism has increased as well:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

The Squiggle Aggregate also has us up to 3rd:

https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

2nd or 3rd doesn't matter as long as the other side is Collingwood, 2nd important if we're competing with Port Adelaide for 2nd/3rd.

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3. MELBOURNE

Played: 13, Won: 9, Lost: 4, Points: 36, Percentage: 132.3

R15: Geelong, GMHBA (W)

R16: GWS Giants, TIO (W)

R17: St Kilda, Marvel (W) 

R18: Brisbane, MCG (W)

R19: Adelaide, MCG (W)

R20: Richmond, MCG (W)

R21: North Melbourne, BA (W)

R22: Carlton, MCG (W)

R23: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R24: Sydney, SCG (W)

Predicted Finish: 3rd (19-4) 

The Demons reminded us on King’s Birthday that their best footy is as good as anyone’s as they overcame fellow top-four side Collingwood. Chances are the Demons will let at least one game slip in the run home, but which one? Geelong will be a challenge this week, but they get the Cats at a good time. Melbourne’s only interstate trips remaining are against bottom-eight sides GWS, North Melbourne and Sydney.

1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Port Adelaide (20-3
3. Melbourne (19-4)
4. Brisbane (17-6)
5. Essendon (15-8)
6. Geelong (13-10)
7. Western Bulldogs (13-10)
8. Richmond (12-1-10) 
9. Adelaide (12-11)
10. St Kilda (11-10)
11. Gold Coast (10-13)
12. Carlton (9-14)
13. GWS Giants (9-14)
14. Fremantle (9-14)
15. Hawthorn (7-16)
16. Sydney (6-17) 
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (1-22)

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8 minutes ago, Demonland said:

3. MELBOURNE

Played: 13, Won: 9, Lost: 4, Points: 36, Percentage: 132.3

R15: Geelong, GMHBA (W)

R16: GWS Giants, TIO (W)

R17: St Kilda, Marvel (W) 

R18: Brisbane, MCG (W)

R19: Adelaide, MCG (W)

R20: Richmond, MCG (W)

R21: North Melbourne, BA (W)

R22: Carlton, MCG (W)

R23: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R24: Sydney, SCG (W)

Predicted Finish: 3rd (19-4) 

The Demons reminded us on King’s Birthday that their best footy is as good as anyone’s as they overcame fellow top-four side Collingwood. Chances are the Demons will let at least one game slip in the run home, but which one? Geelong will be a challenge this week, but they get the Cats at a good time. Melbourne’s only interstate trips remaining are against bottom-eight sides GWS, North Melbourne and Sydney.

1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Port Adelaide (20-3
3. Melbourne (19-4)
4. Brisbane (17-6)
5. Essendon (15-8)
6. Geelong (13-10)
7. Western Bulldogs (13-10)
8. Richmond (12-1-10) 
9. Adelaide (12-11)
10. St Kilda (11-10)
11. Gold Coast (10-13)
12. Carlton (9-14)
13. GWS Giants (9-14)
14. Fremantle (9-14)
15. Hawthorn (7-16)
16. Sydney (6-17) 
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (1-22)

This would be 1.5 wins more than 2021. Would be an incredible effort. Extra game played, I guess, but still.

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14 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

6. Geelong (13-10)

Very difficult for Geelong to win 7 of the last 10.  Or 7 from the last 9 after we beat them on Thursday night.

Geelong won't make the finals

10. St Kilda (11-10)

Also difficult to see Saints losing 7 of the last 10 given their draw.

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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This is a summary of the Run Home.

image.png.0380c1a8653540f68711e6b2b183aa2d.png

I've added games at a teams Home ground* as these have become really important for Crows, Lions and Cats and maybe the Marvel teams:  Saints, Ess and Bulldogs.

On paper Cats and Lions have a difficult draw noting the number of 8pt games. 

My confidence of finishing top 2 is waning as Port have strongly consolidated their position.  But they have played an extra game so can still be caught.

Don't like Tigers and Cats chances of making the 8 altho Tigers have the benefit of the draw.

After this week all teams will have played the same number of games.

 

A big advantage we have if we keep banking wins is to rest/manage players in the last month of the season.  Other top 4 contenders will be fighting each game to keep their ladder position.

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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On 6/19/2023 at 7:06 PM, Demonland said:

3. MELBOURNE

Played: 13, Won: 9, Lost: 4, Points: 36, Percentage: 132.3

R15: Geelong, GMHBA (W)

R16: GWS Giants, TIO (W)

R17: St Kilda, Marvel (W) 

R18: Brisbane, MCG (W)

R19: Adelaide, MCG (W)

R20: Richmond, MCG (W)

R21: North Melbourne, BA (W)

R22: Carlton, MCG (W)

R23: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R24: Sydney, SCG (W)

Predicted Finish: 3rd (19-4) 

The Demons reminded us on King’s Birthday that their best footy is as good as anyone’s as they overcame fellow top-four side Collingwood. Chances are the Demons will let at least one game slip in the run home, but which one? Geelong will be a challenge this week, but they get the Cats at a good time. Melbourne’s only interstate trips remaining are against bottom-eight sides GWS, North Melbourne and Sydney.

1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Port Adelaide (20-3
3. Melbourne (19-4)
4. Brisbane (17-6)
5. Essendon (15-8)
6. Geelong (13-10)
7. Western Bulldogs (13-10)
8. Richmond (12-1-10) 
9. Adelaide (12-11)
10. St Kilda (11-10)
11. Gold Coast (10-13)
12. Carlton (9-14)
13. GWS Giants (9-14)
14. Fremantle (9-14)
15. Hawthorn (7-16)
16. Sydney (6-17) 
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (1-22)

Dees, PA and Coll are not good enough to go 28 wins from 30 games.

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I have seen enough. 2-2 since our lost to Port where we needed to go 3-1 or better.

Top 2 is all but lost and with the way we are playing it’ll be an absolute miracle if we stay in the Top 4.

Let’s face reality - we limped across the line against the Blues, and got Pies in the midst of the Black Death going through their club. This game was always going to be a tough one to win, but we were dealt an absolute gift with no Danger, Cameron and Guthrie. We on the other hand were missing Oliver.

I cannot see how this gets turned around and expecting miracles in forward 50 connection this year is bordering on insanity. This should have been sorted out in preseason. 

Edited by Gawndy the Great
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5 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

I have seen enough. 2-2 since our lost to Port where we needed to go 3-1 or better.

Top 2 is all but lost and with the way we are playing it’ll be an absolute miracle if we stay in the Top 4.

Let’s face reality - we limped across the line against the Blues, and got Pies in the midst of the Black Death going through their club. This game was always going to be a tough one to win, but we were dealt an absolute gift with no Danger, Cameron and Guthrie. We on the other hand were missing Oliver.

I cannot see how this gets turned around and expecting miracles in forward 50 connection this year is bordering on insanity. This should have been sorted out in preseason. 

Ah yes, the classic post-loss revisionism. 

Accuracy is the only reason we didn’t beat Carlton by 40 and Collingwood by 20, as both performances deserved. Never mind the hysterical “black death” thing which has little evidentiary basis.

Be as upset as you want with last night’s loss but the previous two wins are only cause for concern due to our goal kicking inaccuracy, a worrying trend.

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I don't think we have anything to worry about. Once we take the learnings from the Cats game and work on our forward connection, things will come together and we will get on a roll. 

After all, it has only been 5-6 years we have been working on our forward connection, everyone on here seems to think/hope it will be a quick fix but once we get that right in 2034 with our next batch of players, we should be right to go!

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Going to be a very exciting finish for 3rd and 4th spot.

Brisbane, Melbourne, Essendon and the Dogs are right in the hunt, and if St Kilda win tonight then so are they. Can even see Geelong giving it a late shake but have probably lost too many games.

I know we were craving top 2 but we might have ended up playing Collingwood even if we finished top 2, hence the home ground advantage being nullified. Conversely, we’re a good chance of finishing 3rd or 4th and playing Collingwood which would be no different to finishing top 2 and playing Collingwood - if that all makes sense…

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55 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Going to be a very exciting finish for 3rd and 4th spot.

Brisbane, Melbourne, Essendon and the Dogs are right in the hunt, and if St Kilda win tonight then so are they. Can even see Geelong giving it a late shake but have probably lost too many games.

I know we were craving top 2 but we might have ended up playing Collingwood even if we finished top 2, hence the home ground advantage being nullified. Conversely, we’re a good chance of finishing 3rd or 4th and playing Collingwood which would be no different to finishing top 2 and playing Collingwood - if that all makes sense…

You're right, I'd rather be an in form 3rd or 4th team than the broken and battered 2nd team we were last year. 

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2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Ah yes, the classic post-loss revisionism. 

Accuracy is the only reason we didn’t beat Carlton by 40 and Collingwood by 20, as both performances deserved. Never mind the hysterical “black death” thing which has little evidentiary basis.

Be as upset as you want with last night’s loss but the previous two wins are only cause for concern due to our goal kicking inaccuracy, a worrying trend.

Last time i checked they don't award premiership medals on predicted score. Kicking accuracy is part form and if you are not kicking accurately, you are not playing well. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Last time i checked they don't award premiership medals on predicted score. Kicking accuracy is part form and if you are not kicking accurately, you are not playing well. 

 

I didn’t suggest otherwise. 

But we didn’t “limp over the line” against Carlton and we didn’t just benefit from some rumoured illness at Collingwood. In both games we were the better side in most facets for most/all of the game. 

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1 minute ago, titan_uranus said:

I didn’t suggest otherwise. 

But we didn’t “limp over the line” against Carlton and we didn’t just benefit from some rumoured illness at Collingwood. In both games we were the better side in most facets for most/all of the game. 

Correct, we did everything right in those games it was just the end product that was lacking. It's a worry but if we could clean it up then it will take us a fair way.

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1 minute ago, titan_uranus said:

I didn’t suggest otherwise. 

But we didn’t “limp over the line” against Carlton and we didn’t just benefit from some rumoured illness at Collingwood. In both games we were the better side in most facets for most/all of the game. 

At the time we played Carlton they were so badly out-of-form and ripe for an absolute smashing and yet we could only conjour a mild victory. 

You also cannot deny that Collingwood were far from fit and had illness sweep through the club - this wasn't a rumour. We were lucky to play them when we did. For me that win has a big asterisk on it. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

At the time we played Carlton they were so badly out-of-form and ripe for an absolute smashing and yet we could only conjour a mild victory. 

You also cannot deny that Collingwood were far from fit and had illness sweep through the club - this wasn't a rumour. We were lucky to play them when we did. For me that win has a big asterisk on it. 

 

We were also missing Oliver and Petty for both games. I can’t see any other team who is better than us. If we’re fit come finals we’re the team to beat. The competition knows it and I’m pretty sure you do to

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