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How likely a latter season drop off?



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Was just reading Titus O’Reily’s Round 8 wrap, and a poster in the comments was recalling North Melbourne’s start to 2016. They went 9-0, top of the ladder, but won only 3 more games to September, finished 8th and were eliminated straight up. Didn’t remember that, and now wish I hadn’t been reminded. Form and wins are fickle. How likely for the Dees? 

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Short answer: all things considered it reasonably likely we will drop off at some point, but if we do lets hope it is not at finals time.  Long answer: As is always the case for any contende

Even after being 9-0 in 2016 North were not considered a premiership contender, they were still about 10-1 to win  the flag and about 4th favorite. Most predicted a drop off and weren't surprised when

If I recall, in that run they played all the (as it turned out) bottom teams, then they got some injuries. They more or less ran out of gas. Then they got a flat tire. Their jumpers didn't come back f

We don't have great midfield depth.

A couple of injuries to key players and we are right back in the pack.

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Posted (edited)

I’m as worried as anyone when it comes to a drop-off happening, but the difference is that north’s list back then was old and bog-average. Provided we don’t cop too many injuries we should be fine, but this is Melbourne we’re talking about so you never know.

Edited by nacnud
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Posted (edited)

If I recall, in that run they played all the (as it turned out) bottom teams, then they got some injuries. They more or less ran out of gas. Then they got a flat tire. Their jumpers didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole their car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts. It wasn't their fault!

Edited by Mazer Rackham
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While we have a healthy list and competition for spots in the team we will NOT falter . The passion is there and confidence is building . So proud of the MFC and what they stand for . Go Dees !

Can not remember what happened to NM in 2016 and don't care . Maybe like our year in 1965 ?

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Burgess means it won't be for fitness, if properly managed through the season.

Barring some catastrophic run of injuries*, or a deep psychological malaise, I think it unlikely.

Creampuffs, we no longer be.

 

*I disclaim any responsibility if this actually happens as a consequence of committing that sentence to pixels.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, faultydet said:

We don't have great midfield depth.

A couple of injuries to key players and we are right back in the pack.

I was howled down for saying the same.

With Jvs foot issue it makes me nervous.

Harmes was good and I hope gets better with each game.

Jordon has been a huge bonus and here to stay.

But who else is there aside from Sparrow?

So much luck is involved with injuries.

Heres hoping we get heaps of it. Luck that is.

Edited by leave it to deever
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We do have a hard draw towards the end of the season, so there will be some drop off. That's why we need to keep banking these early wins.

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I think the signs are we won’t have a drop off

  • Great defensive set-up and system
  • We’ve overcome challenges in pretty much every game
  • We aren't actually playing particularly well. I reckon we have another gear to go.
  • Not overly reliant on key players. If the oppo shut down one another player can step up
  • Great depth to cover injuries
  • We are fit. Very good fourth quarter team

Injuries can derail any team but that aside I don’t believe we will fall away

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They were an old side with little or no improvement left  in them during the season. They got injuries, other younger sides went past them and then they lost the magical ingredient ... confidence. 

Its good to remember what happened to them though I think. Things can go south very quickly for reasons that would have been hard, if not impossible,   for them to foresee at 9-0. We don’t yet know what challenges we’re going to be thrown or what our ability to adapt to them will be. But we’ve started well and history is ours to write now. I just pray it’s good reading and  not another depressing chapter! 

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I expect a few loses along the way but barring injuries to key players we'll be right in it toward the pointy end.
There will be no easy games though, just about every club out there will come out firing thinking they could take us down with pressure.
Hell, they've been doing it for years.
Essendon especially.
Hate them forkers.

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37 minutes ago, faultydet said:

We don't have great midfield depth.

A couple of injuries to key players and we are right back in the pack.

All clubs are in this situation; you can’t cover your best players. I doubt Richmond’s 25th best player is that much better than our 25th best, and he sure as hell doesn’t hold a candle to Dusty or Petracca. All you can do is hope you never have to find out how big the gap is.

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35 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

According to the Matter of Stats website, more than 50,000 simulations suggest we're likely to finish top 4. 

http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-simulations/2021-simulating-the-final-ladder-after-round-8

Squiggle has us finishing first:

https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

Click on "Melbourne" to see the other models' predictions - they're not expecting a drop-off.

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Melbourne went 8-0 in 1965 and still missed out on finals.

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54 minutes ago, faultydet said:

We don't have great midfield depth.

A couple of injuries to key players and we are right back in the pack.

We have very good midfield depth. 
Oliver | Trac | Jordan | Harmes | Brayshaw | Jones | Sparrow | Pickett | Viney | Baker | Langdon 

granted some aren’t A graders but there is coverage there.  

I think Melksham could also play midfield if required as could someone like Chandler. 

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Obviously we need to maintain good health to be a shot, but there are also reasons to be optimistic.

We are winning convincingly every week and only running in second gear. And there is still plenty of improvement in our game. For example:

  • Petracca starts hitting more targets by foot and kicking straight.
  • Oliver starts kicking straight.
  • Gawn starts kicking straight.
  • We manage to win the centre clearances.
  • Viney comes back and makes the opposition cry.
  • Petty finds his feet.
  • Jackson goes from talented youngster to super star.
  • Kossie gets stronger and learns how to take a mark.
  • Ben Brown gets more mobility back.
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Even after being 9-0 in 2016 North were not considered a premiership contender, they were still about 10-1 to win  the flag and about 4th favorite. Most predicted a drop off and weren't surprised when it came.

Our aim is to finish top 4. So we have to beat the teams around us. Having wins against Richmond, Geelong and Swans are important. Last Saturday nights win was super important. If Swans won its 28 points to us and 24 points to them and they can replace us in the top 4 at some stage. Having won and now being 12 points ahead of the Swans gives us a chance to hold them off in the run home.

A problem for us though is our inability to get an easy win. A kill. Most good teams of the last 20 years had the ability to kill off the contest quickly and then could cruise through a few games. All our games the opposition were well in the game and in many cases ahead. It's good that we found a way to win but we looked cooked in the 4th quarter on Saturday night. The next part of our maturity as a football side is learning how to dominate. If we can't start putting games to bed earlier, we will almost certainly tire and drop off.

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In 2016, North had the oldest list (by some margin) and also only played 2 teams who finished top 8 in the first 9 rounds, and 5 of those wins were within 16 points. Arguably we've already played at least 3 teams who will definitely finish top 8, also having played the teams currently sitting 9, 10 & 11 on the ladder, with only the Swans game coming within 2 goals. So we haven't had to fight out the wins as much.

Having said that, and I mentioned in the changes thread, we should be giving some consideration to managing some of the younger guys to keep them fresh. Jordan, Pickett, Rivers and Jackson are all under 21and have played only 8, 22, 17 & 14 games each. They are all important to our set up, and also I think we need to have that squad mentality where we've got 28 - 32 players ready to go at AFL standard. Having this means there's less likely to be a major drop off, even though we will drop games during the year. 

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1 hour ago, Webber said:

Was just reading Titus O’Reily’s Round 8 wrap, and a poster in the comments was recalling North Melbourne’s start to 2016. They went 9-0, top of the ladder, but won only 3 more games to September, finished 8th and were eliminated straight up. Didn’t remember that, and now wish I hadn’t been reminded. Form and wins are fickle. How likely for the Dees? 

I remember the North team well. They were full of experienced players who got the job done on some pretty weak teams in those first 9 rounds. You were just waiting for them to get found out. They had nothing of the defensive system that we have.

Provided we continue bringing the work rate, our system will win finals. It's nothing like North's. 

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Last Saturday night we had our struggles, many sides would have lost to The Swans. But we managed to stay in front. 
this MFC Team is building an inner strength. The Coaching an Player Management is crucial from now on. 
Essendrug stayed up for all of 2000 

We just need to concentrate on each new opponent 

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