POSTGAME: Rd 02 vs Geelong

[Lucifers Hero 37,006]

Anyone know what happened to Salem this week?

Last week an efficiency of 83.4% with 14 rebound 50's.  This week efficiency down to 54.4% and zero rebound 50's. Did they tag him or is their some mystery illness.  Just seems very odd. Apologies for formats - can't seem to remove the 'bold'.

Edited March 31, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[Binmans PA 26,034]

3 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Sure we had numerous i50 and lost by 13 goals but that isn't the major worry for me. 

What is most frightening is we had 100 tackles but lost by 13 goals.  Let that sink in...

Its not often a team has 100 tackles and loses, let alone be thrashed.  Especially when you also easily win the hitouts, clearances and be not far behind on contested possessions.   

Those things are the very essence of 'our brand'.  What is frightening is that we executed 'our brand' very well and we won on nearly every one of its criteria yet we lose by 13 goals.  If 'our brand', the 'Melbourne Way' is failing that badly, i just don't know where we go.  Its hard to see how 100 tackles can be improved upon. 

After last year's Hawthorn game PJ said the players trashed our brand.  Last night they didn't; they executed it quite well.  It wasn't lack of effort, nor 'drinking bathwater'.  Something deeper and much more insidious is at play.

It must be really demoralising for the players to know they did pretty much what the coaches ask of them re 'our brand' and have that result.  The coaches have some serious thinking to do.

This post is absolutely spot on and echo my sentiments precisely. ???

[jnrmac 18,953]

3 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

I'll weigh in with some things that baffle me.

ANB had 8 possessions at 44% efficiency last night. Came out of the draft as an inside mid who was known for throwing it on the boot. Tom Sparrow is an inside mid whose weakness is his ball use and is playing his second game. 

Both of those guys were our half-forwards.

Compare to Geelong's half-forwards. Miers, Rohan and Dalhaus. Dynamic and skillful players who are true forwards.

That's one example of where Goodwin is failing.

 

Backline -

Why would he bring Steven May in to play a Jake Lever role?  He is a one-on-one specialist and should have been on Hawkins from start to finish.

How many times do Melbourne defenders fly for the same spoil? At one time, I saw four in the air with some leaving their opponents on the ground to pick-up loose ball. How long are we going to continue leaking such easy goals? Why do they all try to be superman and then look at each other in such a confused way when the ball bobbles only to result in a goal?

Goodwin needs to change our defensive system, that is one thing I'm sure of. This rotating on players, guarding of space carp is becoming ridiculous. We continue to leak goals and cannot seem to stop runs of goals. We're far too aggressive as a backline.

 

Mids - 

We've drafted for contested players. Naturally, they gravitate to the contest and this is a massive issue for when we try and win the ball but don't. It means all of our mids are in the same small area and oppo teams will just hand-ball out of traffic to a man in space.

We see ball, get ball and bang ball forward without a care. This system will not always work and is not always necessary when there's space and time to look to where the best option is.

I am so so sick of seeing players kick as quickly as possible forward without a care. 

There must be a change to this. West Coast and now the first two rounds. Signs are not good.

Good summary

You missed the bit where we must had had a world record number of kicks smothered.

 

[titan_uranus 22,322]

3 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Anyone know what happened to Salem this week?

Rd	Opponent	Result	K	H	D	M	HO	FF	FA	T	G	B	AF
1	Port Adelaide	L 61 - 87	30	2	32	5	0	3	0	4	0	0	128
2	Geelong Cats	L 126 - 46	14	9	23	3	0	0	1	6	0	0	90

Did Geelong put time into him?

[titan_uranus 22,322]

Having covered the negatives earlier, I think it's worth dealing with some other issues:

1. We asked for Gawn, Oliver, Viney and Brayshaw to improve on Round 1, and they all did. Oliver aside, they can all continue to improve, but at the very least we saw increased output from the core of our midfield.
2. Our pre-season can't be completely ignored. We're hearing comments from Goodwin and the players that we're struggling with our connection between the backline/midfield and the forward line. I'm certain that we didn't have enough time over the summer with our best 22 in full match training together, and it's showing.
3. Not every opponent this year is going to defend that many inside 50s and simultaneously score 20.6 from 48 inside 50s. Geelong's defence is one of only a few capable of dominating poor quality inside 50s as much as they did.
4. We've played the top 2 sides on the ladder. Not sure anyone else has played two undefeated sides?
5. We're coming up on three weeks of games which look, at this point, to be against much weaker sides than Port and Geelong.

[DeeZee 6,731]

I found it weird that after we trialled Hunt in the forward line with success in the JLT we didn’t try him in the regular games , even when we were desperate for something different.

Things that worked in the preseason like Preuss up forward against Collingwood we haven’t implemented.

Our best pre season forward was actually Joel Smith so just unlucky he got injured.

All this would’ve taken a lot of pressure off TMac and Weed.

Garlett is another we miss as we also currently have no crumber as well.

As far as the backline goes, the sooner we can get some direction down there as in Jordy Lewis the better it will be .

Speaking of leaders ,Lever Is obviously needed desperately as well.

We will win our next two against the Bummers and Aints and be back on track with some much needed personnel after that.

[Binmans PA 26,034]

3 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Scott has swallowed his pride and reinvented Geelong's forward-line. They're now a very dangerous outfit. 

Let's hope Goodwin possesses the same level of maturity and realises certain cattle he is playing just simply don't cut it. 

Scott is still playing the same system he's always played. Last year they were slightly arrogant with the inclusion of Ablett forward and didn't add enough pace to their forward half, but their game style is essentially unchanged since 2012, which is set up to concede the centre clearance and slingshot back the other way.

Our dominant players are mids and without extra pace in the forward line, we'll struggle to lock it inside 50 unless we start to lower our eyes more, as Geelong did on practically every occasion they went inside 50 after quarter time.

[Redleg 37,566]

3 minutes ago, DeeZee said:

 

We will win our next two against the Bummers and Aints and be back on track with some much needed personnel after that.

Are you conceding against the Swans in round 4?

[Binmans PA 26,034]

50 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I haven't seen the game but it's not hard to imagine what it would have looked like.

I can see it now - midfield getting enough of the ball at stoppages but when they get their hands on it there's no link-up of handpasses to break into space and deliver a measured ball inside 50. It's grab it and then kick it straight away.

Geelong have one of the best defences in the league but we went into the game with no small forwards and three key forwards who are all out of form, and then we continued to play non-forwards as half-forwards. That all means we get the ball inside 50 a stack but we have no ability to mark it or to crumb it. So it comes back out again.

But we've set up to keep it in our forward half so we often get it back off Geelong and repeat our attempt to score. Eventually, though, Geelong get through our press and they have an acre of space in their forward half to work with. They take shots from in front, they make the most of them, and they isolate weak defenders.

We looked liked this in the Hawthorn and Richmond losses last year, when we slumped to 2-3. We had threads like this. We had calls for Goodwin's head. We had questions over our gameplan. Then we won 6 straight. This is the only thing which is keeping me from thinking the season is shot already.

But things need to change. We need to do something to shake up the stagnation of our mid-level players - we can't keep carrying OMac, Frost, Hunt, Petracca and ANB in the form they are in and just hope they improve. They're not improving. 

We need to think about our forward line and the way we try to target TMac and Weideman. They need to work harder on how they operate as the two talls.

We need to do something about Petracca. Drop him, change his role, something. 

We need to stop giving games to players who aren't ready for AFL football (Hore and Sparrow last week, KK and Lockhart this week).

And we desperately need to win on Friday. Essendon is probably the only side in the league so far to play football as bad, or worse, than what we've displayed. There is a glimmer of hope in the next month - Essendon, Sydney (0-2, out of form), St Kilda (the worst 2-0 side in AFL history?), Richmond (out of form, possibly no Riewoldt). A confidence-boosting win on Friday, in prime time, could do us wonders. A loss might just destroy us.

And this is the danger of passing comment on a match without seeing it. I find it staggering anyone would try.

The above is not entirely true. Gawn and a few of our mids did bang it on the boot from stoppage, but we did have plenty of link up play by hands through the midfield in tight, but our entries were ordinary from there.

And being at the ground and actually watching the game, although we did get caught in defensive transition a few times early on, most of their goals were not goals out the back ala Richmond and Hawthorn last year. They were hit up short passes to forwards inside 50 where our mids or defenders failed to shut down space. It was very different to those Hawthorn and Richmond losses in that respect. The only similarity is that we dominated the ball, but not always forward half play. 

Geelong constantly pushed us wide in our forward line and had their taller defenders at the top of the square (we didn't kick to the 30m hot spot enough, it was mostly to the goal line - something we do too often), which meant we were very easy to defend. Without a brilliant KPF who splits packs and worries defenders, they were safe all night.

That said, I agree with the rest of it. Stop gifting games to players who aren't ready and if we lose to Essendon it will destroy our top 8 chances.

Edited March 31, 2019 by A F

[P-man 13,168]

Viney is probably the biggest positive out of the game for me. He’s such an important part of the side going forward. It was a strong sense of relief to see him running freely. 

[sisso 2,388]

3 hours ago, —coach— said:

Agree that I hope it’s not a 4-6 week injury to May, he will need a run of 2-3 weeks in the team for it to gel for us.

Who cares if Hogan kicks a 100 goals or none, he doesn’t play for us so it’s irrelevant.

Irrelevant apart from the fact it’s going to give me the sh*ts hardcore!

[Diamond_Jim 11,743]

21 minutes ago, A F said:

Geelong constantly pushed us wide in our forward line and had their taller defenders at the top of the square (we didn't kick to the 30m hot spot enough, it was mostly to the goal line - something we do too often), which meant we were very easy to defend. Without a brilliant KPF who splits packs and worries defenders, they were safe all night.

that's a gameplan issue. Commentators were quite proudly saying last year that we have increased scoring by taking shots from much closer to goal etc.

When you become predicitable one can easily see the result.

Edited March 31, 2019 by Diamond_Jim

[pineapple dee 2,892]

14 hours ago, faultydet said:

I agree.

Are we in a different training program from other sides due to our high finish last year?

I recall Horforn losing various pre-season/early games in their premiership years.

 

maybe we are targeting a later "peak"

maybe i'm, delusional.

No, you are spot on about peaking too early. There's no point being in the lead the first time past the post in the Melbourne Cup. St kilda are peaking too early, as are Port Adelaide and Geelong.

[TRIGON 4,715]

Two of the sides you mentioned have played against us in our current form; that’s not necessarily peaking.

Edited March 31, 2019 by TRIGON

[Deemania since 56 6,132]

14 hours ago, praha said:

We have gone an entire match equivalent without scoring a goal. Think about that. And people had us touted for the flag

That is not an interpreted statistic, that is an absolute fact and it just is not good enough so therefore, the overriding methods being applied by the team leadership and the coaching staff upon the rest of the team are absolutely faulty. Well stated, praha!

[Deemania since 56 6,132]

13 hours ago, Beetle said:

Exactly, when was the last time you can remember a Melbourne player hitting a clean pin point pass to a player on the lead inside 50?

...Davey to Neitz, MCG ... so long ago that I cannot remember the year. 

[Wrecker45 3,378]

2 hours ago, scarlett said:

The way we kick it to a pack every time we go inside 50 makes it really easy for teams to rebound with little pressure because our 50 has so much space because all our players flew for the same ball spoiling each other. Their defenders know its going to the "hot spot" and set up for the crumb every time. Those first few clean possessions allow the opposition to move the ball forward the way they want. Making us run further defensively on a team that is already full of players with interrupted pre seasons. Making it easier and easier every time.

And that is why I am not concerned at all. We’ve just got to transition the ball into the f50 more unpredictably and bring in players that put more pressure on when it hits the deck.

Small adjustments not wholesale changes.

[Scoop Junior 2,963]

13 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I really don't feel like the scoreboard reflected our performance tonight.  It wasn't a great performance by us, but we weren't that bad either.

Agree with this. If there is one thing we Melbourne supporters are exerts in, it's experiencing pathetic performances and enormous losses. This was not one of them. Yes, it was an 80-point loss on the scoreboard but it was far from an 80-point loss on the performance and balance of play. Make no mistake, we were nothing flash, but we weren't nearly 15-goal losers.

A nice little statistic I look at after games is the expected score vs actual score (based on teams' usual goal-kicking accuracy probabilities). The expected score was a 44-point loss to Geelong. As usual against us, they could barely miss on their home turf, kicking snaps and goals from the boundary in the wet. We, as usual against Geelong down there, missed a number of easy chances. So ignoring any other factor, on just goal-kicking accuracy probability alone, the deficit would've been halved and would've IMO more accurately reflected the state of the game.

That period in the third quarter summed up the game. We dominated the early parts and should've been back to within 2 goals - instead, we don't score, the Cats go bang, bang, bang from 3 entries and all of a sudden it's 7 goals the difference and game over. We crumbled too easily at the end but it's human nature to drop off when you put so much effort in for no reward and you see the game slipping away.

Despite all this, we clearly have key issues to address at both ends of the ground. Structurally we were an absolute mess up forward - probably the best indication of this was the number of times we kicked it inside 50m and the next player to touch the ball was a Cats player (it seemed to happen all the time). The mids just hacking it in without looking certainly didn't help, but it almost looked like they were told just get it in at all costs given our desire to play a forward-half game. Problem was we showed absolutely no ability to lock it in there and Geelong are probably the best team at setting up a defensive structure to deal with hacked kicks forward. We currently look stodgy up forward, predictable and devoid of X-factor and flair.

And defensively we are almost in as bad a shape as up forward. Geelong's forward line is hardly imposing, especially when their best forward Hawkins is nullified by the weather. But they scored 20 goals from 48 entries - a quite ridiculous statistic in the wet. Port the same. Richmond the same in JLT 1. Brisbane the same in JLT 2. Essendon have really struggled with their inside 50 efficiency so far this year so if we can't improve in that area next week we are in a fair bit of trouble.

[BrisbaneDemon 1,494]

The part I find frustrating is, I’m not a professional footballer, every couch potato including myself, knows that the cats thrive on teams that long bomb out of the centre, the always create a two on one, always have a man spare in defence. Even with 666, it appeared on t.v last night that they had a spare man back. The bring bring the ball to ground and have great crumbing defenders who rebound quickly.

Last night at every opportunity we won the hit out and bomb it front and centre to an out numbered forward, not once did we look left or right to a wing men who has worked to the 50.  Our forwards were never deep enough on most occasions.

 

we played directly into the hands of the way the cats love to play.  It appears we just thought round 1 was a mulligan, we’ll fire up around the ball and problem solved. Our defensive game is appealing, I lost count of the number of times we were ball side of our players, we’re easily the worse 18 defensive team in the competition and last year we struggled with teams who picked us apart.

2 weeks in a row we we’re convincingly out couched.

 

[scarlett 247]

39 minutes ago, A F said:

Geelong constantly pushed us wide in our forward line and had their taller defenders at the top of the square (we didn't kick to the 30m hot spot enough, it was mostly to the goal line - something we do too often), which meant we were very easy to defend. Without a brilliant KPF who splits packs and worries defenders, they were safe all night.

That said, I agree with the rest of it. Stop gifting games to players who aren't ready and if we lose to Essendon it will destroy our top 8 chances.

Disagree with you on kicking it to the hotspot, its flawed in that contested marks are much harder to take than one on a lead. Our forwards need to lead and lead hard to all different areas in the fifty, the ball carrier will kick to where the forwards are. With the players spread over the 50 and us not having any small forwards that crumb better than their opponents,  it also clogs up their rebound and takes defenders away from helping and the defenders being under more one on one pressure with help further away! At present they rebound into open spaces in a big wave of players allowing easy hit up targets which result in controlled forward movement and good inside 50s which makes our back structures look under 16s standard.

We went hard after players like may and lever, we dont need to go hard for a tom lynch, we need to go hard for the best forward line coach in the afl. We fix this it fixes the ridiculous opposition inside 50 goal ratio.

[Deemania since 56 6,132]

6 hours ago, beelzebub said:

You've just described 'inept'

That's us... totally inept

The FD suffers from short-sightedness. The FD learns nothing and cannot be advised. The FD has too many obvious favourites amongst the playing group and does little to develop younger players to a plan. The concept of 'team' has disappeared completely as a result.

[Smokey 4,126]

1 hour ago, A F said:

I find this super patronising. Did you go last night and stand in the rain and the cold for three hours? If you didn't, I'd take a seat from this discussion. 

It may well be that you sat at home in the warmth of your house and then maybe switched it off at half time, but as someone who goes every week and cops the smarmy abuse and derision of opposition supporters, it's pretty rich to read a supposed Melbourne supporter refer to other Melbourne supporters (particularly those that go each week and have for years) as having a "lack of mental resilience".

I utterly hate this line of thinking, particularly from our supposed own. The fact that the majority of us are still here is an absolute testament to our resilience, after years of pitiful performances and like last night, thoroughly embarrassing scorelines. Have a bit of pride in yourself and your football club. An 80 point loss is unacceptable any way you dice it, and if people are upset and can see the writing was on the wall, as rjay did (and I certainly did after JLT2), they're actually being analytical and realistic about what we're delivering and likely to deliver, and what that means for the season ahead.

Go and level your lack of resilience comments at Carlton supporters who won a flag in the 90s but many have jumped off since or Essendon, who made finals two years ago and have all jumped off after dominating the late 90s and early 2000s. They are the supporters with mentally weak attitudes. We've the longest drought in AFL history and we won't be winning the flag this year either.

Sometimes in life you need to look at what's in front of you and admit when there's something drastically wrong. That doesn't mean we should stop going along and supporting, but it does call for realistic debate and discussion, and deriding people for their mental resilience and telling them to "take a deep breath" is not particularly helpful in my book.

Now the rant is over and I'll take a seat.

I feel you have inferred far too much from a fairly simple comment.

It was more aimed at people that are throwing the towel in for the season over a couple of losses. I’m as disappointed as the next person but I personally don’t see what getting overly emotional about it online does. The rest of the comment was centred around remaining objective about where we are at given our pre season. 

If that triggers you then go ahead and put me on ignor. 

[Smokey 4,126]

5 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Strongly disagree.

That's what our winning formula is based on. Repeat entries and beating teams in the contest. A "forward-half" game.

We lost the game by 80 points but won clearances and inside 50's convincingly.

Please tell me how that is not a massive fail and break-down of individual play along the way?

We are not learning a game-plan anymore mate. 

Went back and checked last weeks stats, I thought we lost i50’s last week. Turns out we didn’t. 

I’m don’t disagree with you, I’m just trying to find some positives that we can build on instead of getting hysterical. Our flaws are horribly obvious and hardly need pointing out. 

[GCDee 3,006]

Its strange... I am weirdly calm about this year.

From the second qtr we found a bit if our mojo in the midfield, when we start connecting we will bury teams. 

Next month of footy is obviously really important.

[Smokey 4,126]

Surprised the ‘is Goodwin the right guy’ thread hasn’t resurfaced yet lol

@GCDee I’m with you mate. I can us coming to (hopefully next week) and smashing plenty of teams.