An interesting listen of an outsider's perspective of our list

[Macca 16,972]

3 hours ago, Colin B. Flaubert said:

Fully agree again with one caveat.

Even great clubs like the Swans, Hawks and Cats occasionally need a ‘transition’ season. One where they might win 8 to 10 games but by no means disgrace themselves.

They use these seasons to potentially transition some older blokes out, get some core B grade 22-27 year olds into the club and to introduce some mid tier kids into the team. Then they reload for another go one to two years later.

Sydney did it in 2009, Geelong in 2015 and Hawthorn did it last year.

One thing that is superficially encouraging is that we are starting to get the age spread these type of clubs have. 

I'm probably viewing bottoming out a bit differently Col ... where the Blues & North are right now is dangerous for those clubs (especially North)  The Lions & Suns the same although the AFL can always step in to help both of those clubs (and the AFL almost certainly will)

We bottomed out, went down and stayed down ... and it's been a long haul just to get back to mid table.  We've got back to mid table with sound, sensible recruiting.

Good admin,  good coaching,  good development and making sure you've got at least 10-12 good players on your list is of paramount importance.  Sounds simple but clubs lose their way.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Macca

[whatwhat say what 22,771]

the one i'm interested to see how they go this year is st. kilda - people have ranked our sides together in the last couple of years, but for mine they've always been a far older, more experienced and completely different side in terms of their timing of 'rising'

withour riewoldt and montagna, their whole set-up is going to have to change somewhat - roo in particular was still in their top three or so players

blues have had a rotten run with injury already, losing arguably their most consistent player in docherty, and like everyone i think north are sort at the beginning of a long road - brisbane, gc17 and freo all seem more advanced

i like our structure, i like our contested ball winning ability, i don't rate our speed or skills to transition effectively, but i think we're good enough to take the next step

and that seems to be the general sense from most football followers too

all i want is a decent run with injury, and viney is already a big concern

[Demon trucker 1,800]

Culture is the most overrated saying in football every club at some point will have a good one and bad one, nothing stays the same. Let's look at the NBA it has had a draft and free agency for longer then the AFL. 2 great teams the bulls and Lakers have won lots of flags, at some point people would of said they both have great cultures and will never bottom out, the bulls have had no success since Jordon the Lakers have been at the bottom for the last few years, everyone will bottom out at some point when u have a cap draft and free agency. 

Edited January 13, 2018 by don't make me angry

[Sir Why You Little 37,045]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Good point Wyl I was thinking in terms of a club bringing in 3 or 4 decent free agents in one hit ... much like what often happens in overseas sports.  Right now, it's difficult to imagine teams being in a position to do such a thing but North did it in the 70's (10 year rule)

And the Blues,  Hawks & Dons cleaned up on all the interstate talent in the 80's.  Thus,  the premierships flowed.

Fair point. Rorting of the salary Cap will continue. There is no way all 18 clubs are under the Cap. 

 

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,830]

On 1/12/2018 at 6:45 AM, Demons11 said:

The only issue I see with these predictions, is that none of these experts would have picked Tigers or the Bulldogs to win a flag 

Agree with Richmond, at the start of the season, most 'experts' and the general public had them finishing bottom half of the ladder last year.  But the Bulldogs had been building and increased competiveness for a few years.  They were the yard stick of the comp for the first half of 2016, although they did fade a bit in the second half of the season.

One of the things that I think is apparent in the AFL at the moment is that to me there is not a clear  dominant super power like Hawthorn, Geelong and to some extent Sydney were over the preceeding period.  Adelaide were the closest thing to that last season, but we'e no where near as dominant and in the end capitulated.  

It will be interesting to see if any club can achieve a position of dominance in the forthcoming period, unfortunately I can see GWS being such a club if they don't have such a torid year with injury.  I suspect that GWS have also got a decent chance of sustained succss  as they seem to keep loosing good players, but must be stockpiling decient young draft picks whenever they loose talent like Adams Trelore and will no doubt continue to enjoy discounted access to talent by the AFL through their academy etc.  ... but I hope I'm wrong, because I can't stand them.

[Adam The God 30,260]

Wasn't sure where to put this and apologies if it's been posted elsewhere, but here is another outsiders analysis of our upside for season 2018.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/melbourne/chris-cavanagh-looks-at-eight-reasons-why-melbourne-will-play-finals-in-2018/news-story/381f1a8a850dd417e650d5a28e6583a7

One stat jumped out at me in particular. I knew we were up there in terms of contested possessions (ranked second) and tackles (ranked second), but what interested me is we were first for loose ball gets. For a midfield that is often maligned for its lack of leg-speed, this stat is impressive. Is it possible that we simply will ourselves to each contest and ensure we scare the pants off the opposition to get that loose ball? Or does it tell us that in fact in leg-speed is not an issue for our midfield?

Of course, most midfields could do with a bit more pace and ours is no exception, but as Sydney have proved over the years, you don't necessarily need pace everywhere if you're winning the contested ball every time. And as this article suggests, finals football is often played in close and contested - in this situation, our midfield would stand a pretty decent chance of beating most opposition if we could make the dual a contested one.

If someone like Joel Smith can make a defensive position his own and Frost improves, this should allow the likes of Hunt and Hibberd to join in more through and via the midfield and exploit their pace. 

[Guest]

21 hours ago, Macca said:

I'm probably viewing bottoming out a bit differently Col ... where the Blues & North are right now is dangerous for those clubs (especially North)  The Lions & Suns the same although the AFL can always step in to help both of those clubs (and the AFL almost certainly will)

We bottomed out, went down and stayed down ... and it's been a long haul just to get back to mid table.  We've got back to mid table with sound, sensible recruiting.

Good admin,  good coaching,  good development and making sure you've got at least 10-12 good players on your list is of paramount importance.  Sounds simple but clubs lose their way.

I guess my post was more a revision on the idea that the good clubs never experience flat periods (though I know you weren’t implying that). It’s more that their ‘rough patches’ are never allowed to degenerate into the fiascos that we and the Brisbane Lions allowed ours to become.

I think the key is always age spread with recruiting. Us and Brissy found ourselves in the position we are by embarking on recruiting policies that were diametrically opposed to each other in 2010 (the Lions loading up on recycled blokes and us recruiting no one but kids). However, both backfired and forced both clubs to overcompensate during later off seasons.

The Lions had to hit the draft aggressively but with blokes like Browny retiring, those kids had little veteran support when they got up there.

To see how we overcompensated, put ‘scattergun 2013 Damien Barrett’ into Google. As much as we hated it at the time, he was dead right.

[Macca 16,972]

1 hour ago, Colin B. Flaubert said:

I guess my post was more a revision on the idea that the good clubs never experience flat periods (though I know you weren’t implying that). It’s more that their ‘rough patches’ are never allowed to degenerate into the fiascos that we and the Brisbane Lions allowed ours to become.

I think the key is always age spread with recruiting. Us and Brissy found ourselves in the position we are by embarking on recruiting policies that were diametrically opposed to each other in 2010 (the Lions loading up on recycled blokes and us recruiting no one but kids). However, both backfired and forced both clubs to overcompensate during later off seasons.

The Lions had to hit the draft aggressively but with blokes like Browny retiring, those kids had little veteran support when they got up there.

To see how we overcompensated, put ‘scattergun 2013 Damien Barrett’ into Google. As much as we hated it at the time, he was dead right.

Agree with that Col ... I also believe that recruiting older players (who have been very good players previously) could become a trend.  With a view to playing those types in specific games or a set amount of games.  We could do it with Vince and/or Lewis. 

18 teams was always going to mean that the talent levels were going to be spread thin ... there isn't necessarily a greater amount of good players just because more players are getting greater opportunities. 

The choice of squeezing out another year or 2 out of a veteran B+ or A grade player might appeal more than persevering with any amount of C grade players who have plateaued out long ago.  Or 4th round draft picks.  Either/or rather than one way or the other.

You don't want to overdo it but the sport doesn't have room for too many young,  immature,  inexperienced players these days ... the congested style we now see often requires bigger,  mature bodies.  But those bigger,  mature bodies can't be low on skill.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Macca

[Sir Why You Little 37,045]

The MFC bottomed out because we had no idea who we were recruiting. 

If we had recruited wisely, then the system would have given us some reward, but we had a CEO who wanted to control each level of the club, he did this and did it very badly

The system gave the MFC multiple chances to get things right

[Demon trucker 1,800]

53 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

The MFC bottomed out because we had no idea who we were recruiting. 

If we had recruited wisely, then the system would have given us some reward, but we had a CEO who wanted to control each level of the club, he did this and did it very badly

The system gave the MFC multiple chances to get things right

One day the swans will bottom out also the cats it might not be in the next year or 2 or 3 but everyone will go there, the roos have managed to stay away from bottoming out until last year, everyone does, teams like the hawks have not even reached their bottom, they have given up a lot of picks in the last 2 years, it will bite them on the ass, and the only reason Geelong have not bottom out is because the best player wanted to go home, I believe this is their last chance to get a flag how long can Dangerfield play at the level he is playing at now, Joel is ageing, and Gary is a big risk, if anyone of them goes down they will fall so fast.

[Uncle Fester 2,848]

Geelong haven't bottomed out in my lifetime (born 71). A lot of not quite years but never in the bottom 4. Home ground plays a part, but mostly it has been sensible stewardship.

[Diamond_Jim 12,590]

49 minutes ago, Uncle Fester said:

Geelong haven't bottomed out in my lifetime (born 71). A lot of not quite years but never in the bottom 4. Home ground plays a part, but mostly it has been sensible stewardship.

Correct Uncle

Think we need to define "bottoming out" ... I think it means going to the bottom quartile (say the last five of an eighteen club comp.)

Two years in the bottom quartile hurts a club... three to five.. that can mean damage.. five to ten as we have done is almost a club killer

[Sir Why You Little 37,045]

2 hours ago, don't make me angry said:

One day the swans will bottom out also the cats it might not be in the next year or 2 or 3 but everyone will go there, the roos have managed to stay away from bottoming out until last year, everyone does, teams like the hawks have not even reached their bottom, they have given up a lot of picks in the last 2 years, it will bite them on the ass, and the only reason Geelong have not bottom out is because the best player wanted to go home, I believe this is their last chance to get a flag how long can Dangerfield play at the level he is playing at now, Joel is ageing, and Gary is a big risk, if anyone of them goes down they will fall so fast.

Everyone dips, yes. But a good club will climb again in one or two years. 

The MFC seem to be improving, but we still do not have a steel resolve to not be beaten. 

That problem has always existed since i first watched the Demons in 1971. 

The final rounds of 2017 were very worrying. We gave up before the season ended, even with 12 wins. 

 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

15 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Everyone dips, yes. But a good club will climb again in one or two years. 

The MFC seem to be improving, but we still do not have a steel resolve to not be beaten. 

That problem has always existed since i first watched the Demons in 1971. 

The final rounds of 2017 were very worrying. We gave up before the season ended, even with 12 wins. 

 

If I had a dollar for every time you bring this up, whether it's on topic of not, I'd have close to a million dollars now WYL. 

We get it, pal.  We didn't get the job done at the end of last year when we should've.  I've never seen someone hold on to the past like you do.  

[DeeSpencer 25,713]

22 hours ago, A F said:

Wasn't sure where to put this and apologies if it's been posted elsewhere, but here is another outsiders analysis of our upside for season 2018.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/melbourne/chris-cavanagh-looks-at-eight-reasons-why-melbourne-will-play-finals-in-2018/news-story/381f1a8a850dd417e650d5a28e6583a7

One stat jumped out at me in particular. I knew we were up there in terms of contested possessions (ranked second) and tackles (ranked second), but what interested me is we were first for loose ball gets. For a midfield that is often maligned for its lack of leg-speed, this stat is impressive. Is it possible that we simply will ourselves to each contest and ensure we scare the pants off the opposition to get that loose ball? Or does it tell us that in fact in leg-speed is not an issue for our midfield?

Of course, most midfields could do with a bit more pace and ours is no exception, but as Sydney have proved over the years, you don't necessarily need pace everywhere if you're winning the contested ball every time. And as this article suggests, finals football is often played in close and contested - in this situation, our midfield would stand a pretty decent chance of beating most opposition if we could make the dual a contested one.

If someone like Joel Smith can make a defensive position his own and Frost improves, this should allow the likes of Hunt and Hibberd to join in more through and via the midfield and exploit their pace. 

I think it means we put the ball on the ground a lot. Mainly going inside 50. Not sure if I can even look it up but I'd suggest the half forwards like ANB and Melksham would've racked up good numbers of loose ball gets that spill from contests going forward.

Hard to know where pace reflects on the stat sheet. 

In attack I'd like some more pace in the midfield so Clarry has someone to handball to who then breaks a line. 

When defending I would've liked another speedy forward to pair with Jeffy and a bit more speed in the midfield transition. A fitter Oliver, Petracca and healthy Viney might help that midfield transition speed anyway. Although I still want quick guys on the wing simply for when you come up against a speedy wingman you want someone who can go with them.

[Sir Why You Little 37,045]

19 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

If I had a dollar for every time you bring this up, whether it's on topic of not, I'd have close to a million dollars now WYL. 

We get it, pal.  We didn't get the job done at the end of last year when we should've.  I've never seen someone hold on to the past like you do.  

Then don’t read it. 

You are too forgiving on this weak organization. I don’t consider that wise at all

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Just now, Sir Why You Little said:

Then don’t read it. 

You are too forgiving on this weak organization. I don’t consider that wise at all

Ah, the old 'don't read it' answer.  Always a popular choice.

I'm not forgiving, I'm just sane.  I was filthy for weeks, but what's the point of hanging on to it?  The players will need to use it as motivation to ensure it doesn't happen again, but they won't be hung on up on it like you are.

[Adam The God 30,260]

FYI, hate that we can't edit our own posts anymore. My grammar errors are killing me.

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

i just wanna play finals. 
Do that this season and i'll be happy.

The season after that (2019)...well that's another story...

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

On 15/01/2018 at 11:14 PM, The Song Formerly Known As said:

i just wanna play finals. 
Do that this season and i'll be happy.

The season after that (2019)...well that's another story...

Seeing what Richmond did last year, and the Bulldogs the year before that, I actually want more than merely to play finals in 2018. That was last season’s expectation.

 

[Guest]

On 2018/1/15 at 9:14 PM, The Song Formerly Known As said:

i just wanna play finals. 
Do that this season and i'll be happy.

The season after that (2019)...well that's another story...

Song, where have you been Old China? It has been an ongoing mystery to me where you (and Dee-luded) have been.

[daisycutter 29,616]

2 hours ago, Colin B. Flaubert said:

Song, where have you been Old China? It has been an ongoing mystery to me where you (and Dee-luded) have been.

d-l is ah-ha on 'ology

[ManDee 7,153]

Every time I read this thread title my skin crawls. Can we change the "listen of"  to listen to?

[Damo 3,356]

The drop off has been 2 years in a row at about round 20.

Interestingly we are 10 times better during the 1st 5 or 6 rounds these days. I hope the club has a good look at the Swans who lost their 1st 6 or so last year. They ran out of puff but they certainly looked like they were on the money. Not saying I dont want to win against Geelong, I just want a more measured approach to the long season.

[Older demon 2,741]

The metric that these scribes don't look at is coaching expertise and experience. Goody is in my opinion still a rookie and learning. A few times last year he was clearly out coached and needs to grow in the job.

Bomber Thompson took 8 years and a review that nearly saw him sacked before they started their premiership run. Dimma was appointed the same time as Dean Bailey and had a review that nearly saw him sacked. The Times were awful in 2016 but had played finals in the years previous. Bevo had been coaching since 2006, winning flags in 06,07,08 then 2010 and was part of the Hawthorn juggernaut. He is a fantastic people manager with a wealth of premiership experience

Just as our playing list needs to grow and develop and even experience finals success and failure so to does our coach and his team. The only goal this year should be to make finals and learn from the experience