MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 15

[Demonland 73,839]

STONE THE ... by The Oracle

The Demons are coming off their biggest loss for the season and a bye only to run into the undoubted form team of the competition, the Adelaide Crows who have won their last five games on end. They are in supreme form and are a credit to their new coach Don Pyke who took over a club that tragically lost its coach around twelve months and then lost their champion player to another club at the start of the season. 

Since the Crows lost their Friday night home game against the Cats some 6 weeks ago, they demolished the Suns (75 points), beat the Giants (22 points), crushed the Saints (88 points), overran the Eagles in Perth (29 points) and toppled the Kangaroos (33 points). That's an enviable record, one that the Demons have struggled to emulate for over a decade.

The question is whether Melbourne can turn things around after its poor last up performance  in the slog in Sydney when the young team was overwhelmed by the stronger Swans and in the end produced barely a whimper in difficult conditions. That 55-point deficit in those conditions translates into a complete beat mugging.

Can the Demons come back and thereby keep in touch with the top 8?

They do have a few things going for them, home ground advantage for starters. The Crows don't play against Melbourne often at this ground - it's been a few years and the last time was when the Demons were at their lowest ebb.

The next thing that Melbourne has in its favour is the competition's in form ruckman in Max Gawn who has his eyes on the scalp of Sam Jacobs. In his last up start in the deluge up in the harbour city, big Max amassed more than fifty hit outs but that huge number was nullified by the conditions which prevented his on ballers from taking advantage. This week should be kinder to him and his midfield headed by Nathan Jones, Jack Viney, Bernie Vince and Dom Tyson. They face some tough opposition with Rory Sloane and Scott Thompson leading the way and feeding a formidable forward line including the likes of Tex Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch and Eddie Betts. 

I can't see Melbourne's young and inexperienced defence holding all of Adelaide's forwards to the point where they can win.

Adelaide by 35 points. 

THE GAME

Melbourne v Adelaide at the MCG Sunday 3 July, 2016 at 3.20 pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 12 wins Adelaide 22 wins 

At MCG Melbourne 7 wins Adelaide 6 wins

Past five meetings Melbourne 1 win Adelaide 4 wins

The Coaches Paul Roos 0 wins Don Pyke 0 wins

MEDIA

TV -  Fox Footy Channel Live at 3.00pm

RADIO -  Triple M 3AW SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win - $3.15 Adelaide to win - $1.36

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Adelaide 12.8.80 defeated Melbourne 7.13.55 Round 3, 2015 at Adelaide Oval

The 25 point win by Adelaide was somewhat misleading because the Demons were well into the game until they dropped off the pace in the final term against the more accurate Crows.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Sam Frost, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta

HB: Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald, Tomas Bugg

C: Aaron vandenBerg, Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince

HF: Christian Petracca, Chris Dawes, Billy Stretch

F: Jack Watts, Jesse Hogan, Dean Kent

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C: Jeff Garlett, James Harmes, Matt Jones, Ben Kennedy

EMG: Jack Grimes, Viv Michie, Jack Trengove

IN: Jeff Garlett, James Harmes, Matt Jones

OUT: Clayton Oliver (omitted), Jack Trengove (omitted), Josh Wagner (knee)

ADELAIDE CROWS 

B: Jake Lever, Daniel Talia, Rory Laird 

HB: Brodie Smith, Kyle Hartigan, Luke Brown 

C: David Mackay, Rory Sloane, Rory Atkins 

HF: Mitch McGovern, Josh Jenkins, Richard Douglas 

F: Eddie Betts, Taylor Walker, Tom Lynch 

FOLL: Sam Jacobs, Scott Thompson, Jarryd Lyons 

I/C: Charlie Cameron,  Kyle Cheney, Brad Crouch, Matt Crouch

EMG: Ricky Henderson, Wayne Milera, Andy Otten   

NO CHANGE

[John Demonic 5,932]

I don't think a 30 point loss is misleading, I instantly know we were in the game until three quarter time when I see that kind of margin. If anything, it's a good indication of how if you can't play four quarters then you will record a minimum 4 or 5 goal loss no matter how well you've played.

Edited June 29, 2016 by johndemons

[Demons11 7,128]

We win!!!

[P-man 13,367]

We did beat them the season before last on their home turf in a game where they fielded a lot of the same key players - Sloane, Thompson, Crouch, Laird, Smith, Jacobs, Talia, Betts, Jeknins, Lynch. I know it's not a lot to hang the hat on, but as good a run as they are having, the last two encounters have been close and fallen either side of the ledger. And we're at home.

The Crows are as good as any team going around at either end of the ground, but when Brad Crouch is your second best midfielder, that is a battle worth taking on. If we can win enough ball out of the middle and work hard enough to place their defence under pressure, we give ourselves a chance. Lose the midfield battle and their forwards will have a day out.

[Biffen 12,949]

No Danger this year.

Should be easier than last time.

Plus we are at home.

Take the bookies money.

[greenmachine 21]

got good feeling about this game crows at the g we could come close imo

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Im confident we can get Jenkins to come to the Dees. Just what we need i reckon. Who wants to ask him??

[picket fence 18,064]

This is our BIGGEST game of the year make no mistake! If we win we will do ..as the team of 87 DID and sail into finals! 

Im putting some good money on a Win !

[What 18,810]

4 minutes ago, picket fence said:

This is our BIGGEST game of the year make no mistake! If we win we will do ..as the team of 87 DID and sail into finals! 

Im putting some good money on a Win !

Yup, win this week and we are 7-7 after 14 rounds.  Then we can dare to dream.

[ding 5,126]

10 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

Yup, win this week and we are 7-7 after 14 rounds.  Then we can dare to dream.

You are already dreaming if you think we will win this week.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Just now, ding said:

You are already dreaming if you think we will win this week.

This is the first season in a very long time where I think we can, as supporters, go in to each week with the feeling that we CAN win - obviously this week we will need to be at our absolute best, but if we do that then we will beat the Crows on our home turf.  Playing at anything less will make it difficult but we are most certainly in with a shot.

[ding 5,126]

Just now, Wiseblood said:

This is the first season in a very long time where I think we can, as supporters, go in to each week with the feeling that we CAN win - obviously this week we will need to be at our absolute best, but if we do that then we will beat the Crows on our home turf.  Playing at anything less will make it difficult but we are most certainly in with a shot.

Yep, in with a shot. But we will need to play quite a bit better than we have been lately.

[Diamond_Jim 12,719]

I will be disappointed if we do not win this week.

This and the games against St Kilda and North are a strong indicator of whether we are going anywhere.

But the again .......................

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Just now, ding said:

Yep, in with a shot. But we will need to play quite a bit better than we have been lately.

I agree.  I'm not taking the Crows lightly - while I am confident we are in with a shot, we can't forget that the Crows are playing some seriously good footy, and if we drop our guard for even 10 minutes it will make things very, very difficult.  They can pile on goals very quickly if we give them the opportunity to do so.

Having said all that I still think we can roll them if the 'good' Melbourne turns up from the first bounce.

[ding 5,126]

2 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

I agree.  I'm not taking the Crows lightly - while I am confident we are in with a shot, we can't forget that the Crows are playing some seriously good footy, and if we drop our guard for even 10 minutes it will make things very, very difficult.  They can pile on goals very quickly if we give them the opportunity to do so.

Having said all that I still think we can roll them if the 'good' Melbourne turns up from the first bounce.

Nah, we'll be right......... Bernie said we have prepared for their best.

[buck_nekkid 6,082]

Grimes and Michie in the 'ins' for the last 3 rounds.  Wonder if they will actually play?

[Wiseblood 24,637]

In:  Michie, Grimes, Garlett, M. Jones, Harmes

Out:  Wagner (knee), Oliver (omitted)

[Cards13 9,117]

Bloke who sits on my left at work, Dees man (top fella). [censored] who sits to my left (my boss and a ripping bloke) Crows man. We were scheduled to go to this game and have a laugh. My boss and I have to fly to Manila for work now, we fly out of Sydney at 12.10 and land in Manila and 6.30pm (8.30pm our time). We have made a deal to stay off the social and watch the game together at the hotel... not sure it's a wise call. Come  on Dees get up, he is one of those blokes who "crows" when they kick a goal, I'll be fing annoyed if they get up and he is crowing in my face for 2 hours.

Edited June 30, 2016 by Cards13

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Oliver omitted is crazy.

[Bigred 494]

Oliver? Tired ? 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Just now, Clint Bizkit said:

Oliver omitted is crazy.

No it's not, although your over the top reaction is unsurprising.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,353]

5 minutes ago, Bigred said:

Oliver? Tired ? 

A 13 night rest just couldn't get him over the line for this one.

[Je Roos Salem 661]

Oliver omitted after the bye is a little interesting. This should definitely be Grimes' shot with Wagner out. I'm guessing Lumumba will play for Casey along with Brayshaw? Thought they were both outside chances this week

[The Backyard Charizard 1,202]

If the team switch on from the first bounce and play at their best for 4 quarters then we are capable of getting within 24 points of Adelaide (if not a fairy tale win)

If we are off just a tiny bit then I lean more toward us losing by 6 goals or more...

I am a die hard fan as people know but I am also a realist 

[DemonLad5 1,642]

1 minute ago, Je Roos Salem said:

Oliver omitted after the bye is a little interesting. This should definitely be Grimes' shot with Wagner out. I'm guessing Lumumba will play for Casey along with Brayshaw? Thought they were both outside chances this week

I'm guessing if they both play well on the weekend they may play next week. Although going to NT next week, may be given another game in the 2s