Why we will win on Sunday

[The Sailing Demon 379]

As the post win optimism flows through our lives we turn our heads to next Sunday at the G.

I will label a few small points as to why I feel we will win this game well.

Their injuries...Murphy, Johannison, Adams, Suckling, Tom Boyd all not playing with reports of a Jake Stringer corky.
This will be the first time this year they haven't played at Etihad (How the hell they get 7 straight home games essentially is beyond me), they haven't played on the wide deck which we are used to.
Fatigue...Their game last week was a lot more physical than ours testing thier players for the whole 4 quarters.

Granted they are a very good team and will go in favourites in recent times we have been pretty even when it comes to wins and losses against this mob.
I feel that if we can bring our second half performance to the G this sunday we will be in the box seat for a 2-4 goal win.

[old55 23,570]

This week a win against a top side is a definite possibility - that's a hell of a lot more than we could say over the past many years.

[Ethan Tremblay 30,858]

Is Pannell not umpiring his Bulldogs this weekend?

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

I'm optomistic that we have a chance but they are a very high pressure team which stkilda proved we have not quite gotten to a point where we can deal with that kind of pressure. If we can get it thought their wall then we will be have a huge go because their last line of defence struggled very much once adelaide got it through but if we cant then we may be in for a tough afternoon.

[Pates 9,660]

I'm confident that this will be an absolute cracker of a game and I feel we are as good a chance as any to win. Even though they've been hit in this area their run out of defence is still a cornerstone of their game so forward pressure will be crucial, this will also test our abilities in two-way running something that they gave us a lesson in last year.

But I'm feeling quietly optimistic about it, similar to how I was feeling prior to the GWS game. I think we match up well on them and the boys will be brimming with confidence after our big win on the weekend. Max Gawn's taps could be the big difference, if he's on top and delivering it down the the throat of Viney, Jones, Tyson, and Oliver then we get first options to our forwards.

Edited May 10, 2016 by Pates

[M_9 2,082]

7 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Is Pannell not umpiring his Bulldogs this weekend?

My understanding is that he umpired the Dogs (v Norf) the previous week. Doubt they'd schedule him 3 weeks in a row.

[Bonkers 994]

As last years final against Adelaide showed the Bulldogs capacity to defend on a larger ground can be ordinary, if we can exploit this then we have a good chance. We will also need to win the ruck contest & centre clearances. All of our losses seem to have coincided with Max Gawn's influence in the Ruck being nullified to a certain extent. Whilst we have built a very good contested brand our un-contested footy at times is pretty ordinary & I wonder if the Dogs will have too much class for us on the outside. At least we are in the position to be challenging a top 8 side & going in to each game thinking we can win.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

3 minutes ago, M_9 said:

My understanding is that he umpired the Dogs (v Norf) the previous week. Doubt they'd schedule him 3 weeks in a row.

He umpired their game the week before against the lions as well

[hells bells 2,023]

One other element to consider.  Insider Intel 

Peter Jennings was at the Bulldogs last year and his role is Game Analyst.

Brendan McCartney was there the year before.  

They should know how to exploit any weaknesses.

[Lifelong Demon 75]

Using the statistics gained from the premiership level attack and defense charts over the last three weeks...

59% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack and defense than their opposition.

22% of the time games are won by teams that are better at defense than their opposition but not attack.

15% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack than their opposition but not defense.

4% of the time games are won by teams who are worse at both attack and defense  (Saints v Demons ).

 

Leading into the game this week under these statistics, Bulldogs would win 22% of the time, Demons 15%.

If you compare only teams in similar spreads (one better at one stat than the other) Bulldogs would win 60%, Demons 40%.

 

Now, my Tipping Spreadsheet had Demons beating Suns by 1 point last week... This week it has Bulldogs beating Demons by 2 points. However, games that have been 4 points or under in my spreadsheet are at about 50% accuracy at the moment... still tweaking the algorithms!

 

Having said all that I am still tipping the Demons to win this one as I think they are in the right frame of mind, the ground is a different size and softness, things are starting to click and its time to beat a top 8 team!

 

[Ethan Tremblay 30,858]

21 minutes ago, M_9 said:

My understanding is that he umpired the Dogs (v Norf) the previous week. Doubt they'd schedule him 3 weeks in a row.

And the week before that also.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,754]

11 minutes ago, Lifelong Demon said:

Using the statistics gained from the premiership level attack and defense charts over the last three weeks...

59% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack and defense than their opposition.

22% of the time games are won by teams that are better at defense than their opposition but not attack.

15% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack than their opposition but not defense.

4% of the time games are won by teams who are worse at both attack and defense  (Saints v Demons ).

 

Leading into the game this week under these statistics, Bulldogs would win 22% of the time, Demons 15%.

If you compare only teams in similar spreads (one better at one stat than the other) Bulldogs would win 60%, Demons 40%.

 

Now, my Tipping Spreadsheet had Demons beating Suns by 1 point last week... This week it has Bulldogs beating Demons by 2 points. However, games that have been 4 points or under in my spreadsheet are at about 50% accuracy at the moment... still tweaking the algorithms!

 

Having said all that I am still tipping the Demons to win this one as I think they are in the right frame of mind, the ground is a different size and softness, things are starting to click and its time to beat a top 8 team!

 

Not sure about the logic of this. It suggests that there is a 63% chance that a team other than Melbourne or Footscray will win a game of football played between Melbourne and Footscray. Ergo, I think there's a flaw in this particular argument. 

[Ricky P 757]

14 minutes ago, Lifelong Demon said:

Using the statistics gained from the premiership level attack and defense charts over the last three weeks...

59% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack and defense than their opposition.

22% of the time games are won by teams that are better at defense than their opposition but not attack.

15% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack than their opposition but not defense.

4% of the time games are won by teams who are worse at both attack and defense  (Saints v Demons ).

 

Leading into the game this week under these statistics, Bulldogs would win 22% of the time, Demons 15%.

If you compare only teams in similar spreads (one better at one stat than the other) Bulldogs would win 60%, Demons 40%.

 

Now, my Tipping Spreadsheet had Demons beating Suns by 1 point last week... This week it has Bulldogs beating Demons by 2 points. However, games that have been 4 points or under in my spreadsheet are at about 50% accuracy at the moment... still tweaking the algorithms!

 

Having said all that I am still tipping the Demons to win this one as I think they are in the right frame of mind, the ground is a different size and softness, things are starting to click and its time to beat a top 8 team!

 

You'd better be winning ur tipping comp after all that effort!

[drdrake 3,163]

We will win because they will struggle to defend the MCG.  You look even through our darkest periods from 2007 the only side we were competitive with everytime we played at the MCG was the Bulldogs.  We can defend the MCG and open them right up.

[Lifelong Demon 75]

12 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Not sure about the logic of this. It suggests that there is a 63% chance that a team other than Melbourne or Footscray will win a game of football played between Melbourne and Footscray. Ergo, I think there's a flaw in this particular argument. 

Yeah - 63% of games are being won by teams who are better at attack and defense. Hence the 60/40 split.

It was poorly worded...

[Lifelong Demon 75]

12 minutes ago, Ricky P said:

You'd better be winning ur tipping comp after all that effort!

Nope. I'm at -2.

1 from Saints vs Demons and 1 from #freekickhawthorn

[hardtack 10,537]

One other thing that MAY work in our favour is the fact that the umpires will have been told to be very aware of the numbers of free kicks being paid following the farcical one sided count in the Bulldogs v Crows game.

[Akum 2,660]

We'll win IF ...

... IF we can match them or even beat them in clearances.

... IF we can stop their chains of uncontested possessions out of defence.

They WILL nullify Gawn. Bevo tried it last year when they smashed us, and also in the NAB pre-season when we just beat their reserves. Their aim is to get the ball to land at Gawn's feet where they swarm on it, and their ruckman won't be trying to win taps, he'll just be trying to stop Gawn winning them, and Gawn will get no help from the umpires, Pannell or not. We have to at least match them in clearances when Gawn is nullified and can't give our mids an armchair ride.

And Bevo WILL play a loose man in defence, knowing that Roos is the one coach in the AFL who will let it cut us to shreds the whole game and not man them up. The Dogs have good stats defensively because they rarely turn over the ball in their defence, let alone allow pressure to build by repeat entries - once they win the ball in defence, they're great at moving the ball a long way from their defensive zone by chains of uncontested possessions. When we've played well, we've been good at getting forward-line turnovers and repeat forward entries (why does that sound so wrong???), but if they have an extra man, it will be much harder (wrong too??). If they have a spare man in defence and we man them up (7-on-7), it congests our forward line and makes turnovers more likely than if it was 6-on-6. and makes it harder for them to initiate chains of possession from the half back line.

So, we'll win IF we just don't play into their hands. Otherwise, we'll get smashed.

[pineapple dee 2,892]

I have no idea what the outcome of this game will be. One thing I will say is that the dogs are ferocious in their attack on the ball and the ball carrier. This is probably an area in which they have improved this year. We have the capacity to put equivalent pressure to force turnovers however and if we come with that intent, we can match them. I think the players believe this now too more than any other time in recent memory. This , combined with our improved firepower should get us over the line. I will be in Bateman's bay on Sunday eating oysters. D'landers, please give an extra shout for me at the G. I will be there in spirit.

[Moneider96 1,045]

Umpires won't be as biased for the Bulldogs, given the scrutiny they've received after the crows game.

they should be particularly mindful of how the dogs players continue to drop the knees...or duck. Will give us a real good chance. Not to mention our midfield is amazing. 

Edited May 10, 2016 by Moneider96

[armstrong35 262]

IF we win it won't be about Melbourne beating a top side team it'll be Melbourne beating an injury hit Bulldogs team. Always about how bad or injury struck a team is more so than us actually being good and winning on our terms.

[CBDees 3,167]

15 minutes ago, armstrong35 said:

IF we win it won't be about Melbourne beating a top side team it'll be Melbourne beating an injury hit Bulldogs team. Always about how bad or injury struck a team is more so than us actually being good and winning on our terms.

Sometimes there bobs up an objective report on our  success (such as the one pasted below):

http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/05/10/melbourne-hell-demons-rise/

My prediction is that we will win and the win again the following week against (an improving) Brisbane, putting us at 6/3 and firmly entrenched in the eight. Go Dees!

Edited May 10, 2016 by CBDees

[praha 11,240]

It's extremely winnable. Bulldogs can't be underrated. They are a good side. 

On the MCG in potentially wet, heavy conditions will work in our favour. Must play the game on our terms.

[SaberFang 7,151]

I really don't like threads like this... yes, I'm fairly confident about Sunday given these factors, but I don't think we should telegraph it. Just strikes me as bad luck if nothing else.

[Tony Tea 2,809]

Beware of Clarko footy.