Fox Footy Roundtable - Melbourne

[grazman 6,618]

13 minutes ago, Deecisive said:

injuries will still play a part on which sides are going to go up and who goes down, as usual.  The tigers suffered quite a few injuries in the NAB cup match a couple more will really hurt their chances.  While collingwood has looked reasonable, I still think they may have trouble kicking goals, the dogs were killing them until the just stopped and collingwood ran over the top. I think we can score 10+ wins and thankfully we have a bit more depth than in previous years, but injuries to some of our key players could keep our wins down.  Last year we through games away that we could have won and won games that no one gave a chance to win.  This year we should be able to show that we have turned the corner and will be a threat in future years.

 Good point about the Tigers.  They haven't really improved their list at all, they didn't get Treloar as the gritty inside mid they sorely missed in the pressure cooker of finals and settled on Yarran instead - whose going to miss the first 6 weeks with a foot injury. Conca and Edwards out.  They could be 6 and 5 by rd 11 or just as easily be 3 and 8 if a couple more go down.

[hardtack 10,127]

11 hours ago, Curry & Beer said:

I don't understand this post.

Obviously it is a fact that they have a history of 'hating the Dees and never having a good thing to say about the club'

So why would it be a disappointment to anyone to see a change from that?

Who exactly is this post attacking, and why?

It's having a go at the whiners who always complain about these commentators hating the MFC and never having a good thing to say about the MFC (as  recently as last Sunday's game).  Here they are making very reasonable assessments of where the club is heading, so that, in my opinion, must grate on some of those who love to hate the likes of Derm, King and Dunstall (who I have often heard praising the MFC, while others seem to experience selective deafness) etc.

The post is not directed at any individuals... just the victim attitude that so many MFC supporters seem to have developed.

Edited March 17, 2016 by hardtack

[Emerald 1,720]

22 hours ago, Delusional demon 82 said:

Just watching the Melbourne round table discussion on Fox Footy.  Quite a lot of positivity around the attacking game plan shown in the NAB Challenge getting up to 100 points etc massive improvement on prior years, they want to see that continue.  David King still banging on that Goodwin should have the match day keys now and keep up the new game plan and Roosy take the club shaping role. 

A lot of love for Jesse and Oliver too. The concensus was 9 wins but they saw moreso that the improvement will be reflected more in the style of play and the excitement for the fans and players enjoying their footy. 

Jason Dunstall was relaxed about Hoges fixing his kicking style and said he would be the first player you'd go after if you were building a team.

King excited by Petracca said he's a freak like Robbie Gray just a bit taller 

Cam Mooney said we're no longer a basketcase, and people are going to be standing back this year and saying how good is this, they're exciting 

Brad Johnson's a Viney fan.

Overall not really any negatives,  but they wanted to see that NAB Challenge game style continue during the season 

I tried to watch the Roundtable but I turned it off as I found the cameras pointed at the backs of peoples heads non-entertaining.Thanks for filling me in what they had to say about the Dees.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

11 hours ago, fndee said:

19 minutes ago, hardtack said:

It's having a go at the whiners who always complain about these commentators hating the MFC and never having a good thing to say about the MFC (as  recently as last Sunday's game).  Here they are making very reasonable assessments of where the club is heading, so that, in my opinion, must grate on some of those who love to hate the likes of Derm, King and Dunstall (who I have often heard praising the MFC, while others seem to experience selective deafness) etc.

The post is not directed at any individuals... just the victim attitude that so many MFC supporters seem to have developed.

 

but isn't the 'victim' mentality totally justified? I don't think we are looking through some sort of lens that mis-perceives the way the media portrays us. They hate us and take every opportunity to kick us when we're (perpetually) down. Having said that, we are a disgrace and we deserve it. If another club, even one with the history of ours, spent such a long time being so awful I would also have a minimal amount of respect for them. I just realised we are not actually disagreeing on anything. For me, the point is that the media are a fickle bunch, who will float in the slightest hint of a breeze. Go dees :D

[P-man 13,276]

Watched it tonight.

Had to smile that basically the entire segment was pumping us up big time, and then the conclusion was that we are still a long way from finals and wins aren't the most important thing.

The 4th hardest fixture still stings. Really can't understand it. Gold Coast have the 3rd easiest fixture. St Kilda the 2nd easiest I think. We've been burned big time in that regard.

[rjay 24,011]

8 hours ago, rjay said:

 

 

I think Richmond will regret being manipulated/pushed into giving Hardwick a contract extension and wouldn't be surprised to see pressure rising on them to sack him by the end of this season, contract or not.

I don't think he is a good AFL level coach by a long way and possibly the worst match day coach in the game.

I think he can build good player relationships but is blinded by loyalty to them, it's the only reason I can see that he hasn't made changes to his list after continued poor finals performances.

We will be moving up now whilst the Tiges move back in the pack and it wouldn't surprise me to see us pass them this season.

They have no midfield depth and of their guns in this area, Kotchin doesn't hurt, Martin is a better forward and Delidio a better floater which is also what Ellis is.

They have one quality key forward and one quality key back...they lose either of those and it's season over.

 

4 hours ago, Baghdad Bob said:

This from the Age article today:

Gale presented a paper to the board last December which benchmarked Hardwick against the performances of similarly placed coaches and clubs over the period of the compromised draft. It showed that Hardwick's win/loss ratio was similar to that of both Clarkson and Geelong's Mark Thompson over their first six years.

It also showed that Richmond had turned over 39 players since Hardwick joined as coach at the end of 2009 - the highest number in the AFL.

Forty one percent of the Tigers' list has been turned over since the start of 2014.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/richmond-tigers/afl-2016-damien-hardwick-resigns-with-richmond-football-club-until-2018-20160316-gnkrd6.html#ixzz438OPMV8I
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

Hardwick made a lot of changes early on, he can be commended for building a reasonable list in the period of the compromised drafts but it's what's happened in the last few years that I would be concerned with if I were the Tiges.

He hasn't improved the list over the last few years of lost finals...you would have thought there would be some big changes and maybe even some creative list management decisions to make the Tiges a real finals threat..but no, steady as she goes seems the mantra.

It seems he thinks he has a premiership list.

I may be way off the mark and the Tiges will go on to great success with Hardwick at the helm but I'm betting he doesn't see out his time and gets his marching orders way before this contract is done.

I think Gale's stats show the foley of using them to make this kind of decision.

[Little Goffy 12,768]

Since there have been a few comparisons to Richmond, I'll throw in my thoughts.

List-turnover shmist-turnover!

In five seasons, going as far back as 2011, only 20 players have featured in the top 10 of the Jack Dyer Medal.

All but four of those 20 are still on the Richmond list in 2016. Nathan Foley, Shane Tuck, Daniel Jackson, and Robin Nahas, who each only featured once in that time.

But the really stark figure is how many players have featured repeatedly in the top-10 at Richmond since 2011;

• 5 out of 5 - Cotchin, Martin, Deledio, Riewoldt, Houli, Rance
• 4 out of 5 - Grigg (injured for half season in 2014)
• 3 out of 5 - Morris (not yet playing in 2011, injured for half season in 2015)
• Everyone else combined - 11 appearances.

To sum up - Richmond are completely defined by just eight players, who between all of them them have suffered approximately 30 games out due to injuries in total, in five years.

They've been remarkably lucky, and it's no wonder they wilt under the whole-team pressure of finals.

 

When I started looking at this, I knew I'd find results along these lines, but the extent is even shocking me.

Far from having a high list turnover and renewal, it looks like since 2011 Richmond have had the most stable top-end list of any club.

And their ages are now 28, 27, 27, 27, 27, 26, 25, 24.

Suddenly it clicks why Hardwick has been given the extra couple of years. That's about how long they have before they fall off a cliff.

 

(In my head I call this kind of list situation "Levitating Potato". It is up, it is staying there, but it wont be going any higher and deep down you know that there's nothing really holding it up and physics will take over again eventually. Melbourne did it in 2004-6. Carlton from 2009-2013. Richmond since 2013. And of course North Melbourne are the modern masters of it)

 

[Grapeviney 8,954]

2 hours ago, P-man said:

 

The 4th hardest fixture still stings. Really can't understand it. Gold Coast have the 3rd easiest fixture. St Kilda the 2nd easiest I think. We've been burned big time in that regard.

I didn't see the show and don't have the fixture in front of me but I seem to recall that the consensus on here when the draw was released was that it was crap commercially but favourable in a football sense. 

Are people just accepting the Fox Footy assessment at face value or do we genuinely have the fourth hardest draw in the league? 

[P-man 13,276]

9 minutes ago, Grapeviney said:

I didn't see the show and don't have the fixture in front of me but I seem to recall that the consensus on here when the draw was released was that it was crap commercially but favourable in a football sense. 

Are people just accepting the Fox Footy assessment at face value or do we genuinely have the fourth hardest draw in the league? 

It's a tough draw in my opinion, especially when compared to the Saints who are positioned similarly. Whether it ranks exactly fourth hardest I don't know but it doesn't seem an outlandish claim.

It does potentially allow for a good start to the year which can provide early momentum. But we need to take advantage of it.

[jnrmac 19,310]

17 minutes ago, P-man said:

It's a tough draw in my opinion, especially when compared to the Saints who are positioned similarly. Whether it ranks exactly fourth hardest I don't know but it doesn't seem an outlandish claim.

It does potentially allow for a good start to the year which can provide early momentum. But we need to take advantage of it.

It never quite turns out that way though because teams always under or over perform. Based on last years team performances it might be hard but who knows how this year will pan out. I reckon we have a chance at 13 wins if things go really well.

Giants H MCG   w

Ess A MCG  w

Nth A BA  

Coll A MCG

Rich H MCG  w

St K H ES  w

GC A MS  w

WB H MCG  w

BRis H MCg w

Port H (TP) w

Haw A MCG

Coll H MCG w

Crows H MCG w

Freo H TIO

ST K A ES w

WCE A DS

GC H MCG w

Haw H MCG

Port A AO

Carl A MCG w

Geel A SS

[Ted Lasso 17,077]

3 hours ago, rjay said:

 

Hardwick made a lot of changes early on, he can be commended for building a reasonable list in the period of the compromised drafts but it's what's happened in the last few years that I would be concerned with if I were the Tiges.

He hasn't improved the list over the last few years of lost finals...you would have thought there would be some big changes and maybe even some creative list management decisions to make the Tiges a real finals threat..but no, steady as she goes seems the mantra.

It seems he thinks he has a premiership list.

I may be way off the mark and the Tiges will go on to great success with Hardwick at the helm but I'm betting he doesn't see out his time and gets his marching orders way before this contract is done.

I think Gale's stats show the foley of using them to make this kind of decision.

I think the biggest weakness they've had for a long time is the lack of a forward partner for Jack who is any good, and the sheer drop off in quality of midfielders 

 

they've got Cotchin who is good but goes missing the moment any heat is on as their captain

Lids, is a gun but injury prone

Martin is a jet

and not much else, Miles and co i consider to be B-C grade players, and they overrate these blokes

[Grapeviney 8,954]

1 hour ago, Grapeviney said:

I didn't see the show and don't have the fixture in front of me but I seem to recall that the consensus on here when the draw was released was that it was crap commercially but favourable in a football sense. 

Are people just accepting the Fox Footy assessment at face value or do we genuinely have the fourth hardest draw in the league? 

OK so a little bit of digging and I've discovered the 4th hardest thing comes from Champion Data, who calculated a points system using the difference in each team’s FOR and AGAINST totals at the end of last season’s home-and-away rounds. For example, Hawthorn at +904 points is rated hardest to play against and adds 904 to your "difficulty total". Carlton at -829 is the easiest and reduces your total by 829 points. When you tally it up this way, we do indeed have the fourth hardest draw. 

BUT...Hawthorn is the only one of last year's finalists who we play twice, so I'm not really sure there's too much to complain about, and no-one has really complained about it until now. The fixture thread on here is almost all focussed on the commercial aspects, like scheduling and home opponents etc.

No-one seemed to mind at the time, and I don't see how this new (old) assessment changes that. 

Edit: Oops, meant to respond to you  p-man 

[jackaub 1,402]

7 hours ago, jnrmac said:

It never quite turns out that way though because teams always under or over perform. Based on last years team performances it might be hard but who knows how this year will pan out. I reckon we have a chance at 13 wins if things go really well.

Giants H MCG   w

Ess A MCG  w

Nth A BA  

Coll A MCG

Rich H MCG  w

St K H ES  w

GC A MS  w

WB H MCG  w

BRis H MCg w

Port H (TP) w

Haw A MCG

Coll H MCG w

Crows H MCG w

Freo H TIO

ST K A ES w

WCE A DS

GC H MCG w

Haw H MCG

Port A AO

Carl A MCG w

Geel A SS

Thats exactly how I see it Junior we have to beat pies and Port and we have to start well with 8 wins in the first half

Its entirely possible

[rjay 24,011]

7 hours ago, jnrmac said:

It never quite turns out that way though because teams always under or over perform. Based on last years team performances it might be hard but who knows how this year will pan out. I reckon we have a chance at 13 wins if things go really well.

Giants H MCG   w

Ess A MCG  w

Nth A BA  

Coll A MCG

Rich H MCG  w

St K H ES  w

GC A MS  w

WB H MCG  w

BRis H MCg w

Port H (TP) w

Haw A MCG

Coll H MCG w

Crows H MCG w

Freo H TIO

ST K A ES w

WCE A DS

GC H MCG w

Haw H MCG

Port A AO

Carl A MCG w

Geel A SS

You're missing the Swans game 'jnr'...

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

13 hours ago, Maple Demon said:

As long as we finish higher on the ladder than Collingwood, I'm happy.

I hope we finish higher than the Crows.

I have a mate who's a passionate Crows' supporter (yep, he's a [censored]) and he always runs down the Demons. He was doing this the other day in front of a group of friends. And me obviously.

I said to him, 'cop a tip mate - we'll finish higher on the table this year than your contrivance of a club, the Toyota Camry Crows Inc'.

He responded, 'you serious?!'. Me, 'absolutely'.

Him, '10 cases of beer on it?'. Me, 'absolutely'.

Bring it home for me Dees ...

 

[Delusional demon 82 1,196]

11 minutes ago, rjay said:

You're missing the Swans game 'jnr'...

So is 14 wins doable? 

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Our draw for the first half of the season seems favourable. If we can win 5-7 from our first 10, then who knows what will happen in the second half of the season if finals are on the line. And there will always be sliders, and sides who look tough to beat now, are rubbish come round 14 or 15.

[whatwhat say what 19,577]

if we get to 13 wins i'll dance a jig of glee.

 

10 wins is optimistic in my view.

 

i just want to see no more blowout losses, and winning the close ones. do that and we might get to 10-13 wins.

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

It would be nice to have a consistent season where we avoid both being on the receiving end of major blowouts and fading away in the second half of the year. 13 wins would be great, but if they're mixed in with a few hundred pointed beltings and losses to teams we should beat, that'll mean that we've still got some major issues. 

[DubDee 21,252]

9 hours ago, jnrmac said:

It never quite turns out that way though because teams always under or over perform. Based on last years team performances it might be hard but who knows how this year will pan out. I reckon we have a chance at 13 wins if things go really well.

 

I agree.   by "hard" it means playing teams twice like dogs/crows and not playing twice the Pies, Cats of GWS. I think id prefer the hard draw if thats the case!

there are so many middle teams that the rating doesnt say too much.  unless you have Freo/WC/Hawks twice or something extreme like that

[btdemon 475]

On 16 March 2016 at 10:55 PM, Baghdad Bob said:

They also mentioned that we have the 4th hardest draw. 

Nobody replied to this post when I wrote it in another thread so I'm bumping my own post to here (probably not cool, I know), but I've poured a little cold water on my expectations for this season......... mind you, I'm still EXCITED!

"I've just been looking over the draw. It's very tough. 10 wins would be more than a pass mark. We play Essendon, Brisbane and Carlton only once. On the current predictions they are the only wins I would 'pencil in', and I would be ready with the eraser in regards to St Kilda. The "10 wins" target requires us to rack up some unexpected wins, and no doubt, I'm sure there might be a couple. I'm talking about wins against teams that are expected to finish in the top eight, such as GWS, Suns, Richmond, Collingwood, Nth Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney, Doggies or Port. However, it is going to take a few of these to reach 10 wins and I'm much less hopeful after looking over the draw. We have to play Hawthorn twice and thankfully Geelong, Freo and WC only once. To start with the momentum of 3-0 in the preseason is great but I'm less bullish about it than some on this site. I think PJ's target of finals in 2016 might be a season too early. I hope I'm very, very wrong".

Realistically, I'm thinking we can sneak a couple of unexpected wins and get to 7 or 8. Anything more would be great. I wish the ladder predictor was up and running on the AFL website. it'd be good to map some scenarios.

Edited March 17, 2016 by btdemon

[Slartibartfast 16,003]

12 hours ago, rjay said:

 

Hardwick made a lot of changes early on, he can be commended for building a reasonable list in the period of the compromised drafts but it's what's happened in the last few years that I would be concerned with if I were the Tiges.

He hasn't improved the list over the last few years of lost finals...you would have thought there would be some big changes and maybe even some creative list management decisions to make the Tiges a real finals threat..but no, steady as she goes seems the mantra.

It seems he thinks he has a premiership list.

I may be way off the mark and the Tiges will go on to great success with Hardwick at the helm but I'm betting he doesn't see out his time and gets his marching orders way before this contract is done.

I think Gale's stats show the foley of using them to make this kind of decision.

I'm not trying to argue Richmonds case but just point out that they have turned the list over which you suggested they hadn't.  They have turned over 41% of the list in the last two years if the article is to be believed.

"Forty one percent of the Tigers' list has been turned over since the start of 2014."

Richmond have also tried to improve their list.  They would  have got Trengove except for the medical issues and this year obviously made a play for Treloar.  Further we don't really know who else they've tried to get and they are turning their list over trying to find players.  Interestingly players don't seem to want to go there and given they will play the majority of games at the G and in front of huge crowds that surprises particularly given that Hardwick is so popular.  I wonder what influence Cousins, Martin, King and perhaps others have had.

 

[rjay 24,011]

18 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

I'm not trying to argue Richmonds case but just point out that they have turned the list over which you suggested they hadn't.  They have turned over 41% of the list in the last two years if the article is to be believed.

"Forty one percent of the Tigers' list has been turned over since the start of 2014."

Richmond have also tried to improve their list.  They would  have got Trengove except for the medical issues and this year obviously made a play for Treloar.  Further we don't really know who else they've tried to get and they are turning their list over trying to find players.  Interestingly players don't seem to want to go there and given they will play the majority of games at the G and in front of huge crowds that surprises particularly given that Hardwick is so popular.  I wonder what influence Cousins, Martin, King and perhaps others have had.

 

Bringing in someone like Yarran is not going to help either...

I also think players looking to leave their club for future success don't see that being at the RFC.

...but, I guess I'm not making my point very well 'Bob'. This post from 'Goffy' says it better...really well researched.

11 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Since there have been a few comparisons to Richmond, I'll throw in my thoughts.

List-turnover shmist-turnover!

In five seasons, going as far back as 2011, only 20 players have featured in the top 10 of the Jack Dyer Medal.

All but four of those 20 are still on the Richmond list in 2016. Nathan Foley, Shane Tuck, Daniel Jackson, and Robin Nahas, who each only featured once in that time.

But the really stark figure is how many players have featured repeatedly in the top-10 at Richmond since 2011;

• 5 out of 5 - Cotchin, Martin, Deledio, Riewoldt, Houli, Rance
• 4 out of 5 - Grigg (injured for half season in 2014)
• 3 out of 5 - Morris (not yet playing in 2011, injured for half season in 2015)
• Everyone else combined - 11 appearances.

To sum up - Richmond are completely defined by just eight players, who between all of them them have suffered approximately 30 games out due to injuries in total, in five years.

They've been remarkably lucky, and it's no wonder they wilt under the whole-team pressure of finals.

 

When I started looking at this, I knew I'd find results along these lines, but the extent is even shocking me.

Far from having a high list turnover and renewal, it looks like since 2011 Richmond have had the most stable top-end list of any club.

And their ages are now 28, 27, 27, 27, 27, 26, 25, 24.

Suddenly it clicks why Hardwick has been given the extra couple of years. That's about how long they have before they fall off a cliff.

 

(In my head I call this kind of list situation "Levitating Potato". It is up, it is staying there, but it wont be going any higher and deep down you know that there's nothing really holding it up and physics will take over again eventually. Melbourne did it in 2004-6. Carlton from 2009-2013. Richmond since 2013. And of course North Melbourne are the modern masters of it)

 

 

[mo64 5,240]

Not sure how a roundtable discussion about Melbourne has anything to do with Hardwick/Richmond. 

There's no doubt that many on here have us being the "victim" when it comes to media analysis and commentary. The facts are:

- We won 7 games last year and had a shocking 2nd half to the year.

- We haven't recruited anyone of significance. Our biggest name recruit Melksham is on the sidelines.

- Only draftee likely to make an impact is Oliver. You can talk about Petracca and Trengove as being like new recruits, but after coming of serious injuries, our expectations of them need to be tempered.

- You can talk about natural imrovement from a young list, but every other club outside the eight is saying the same thing.

- We have a tough draw. The wins we had last year against the Pies, Cats and Dogs will be harder to achieve.

Any analyst in their right mind should have us winning no more than 10 games. We could have a breakout year like the Dogs, but it's highly improbable.

 

[rjay 24,011]

12 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Not sure how a roundtable discussion about Melbourne has anything to do with Hardwick/Richmond. 

There's no doubt that many on here have us being the "victim" when it comes to media analysis and commentary. The facts are:

- We won 7 games last year and had a shocking 2nd half to the year.

- We haven't recruited anyone of significance. Our biggest name recruit Melksham is on the sidelines.

- Only draftee likely to make an impact is Oliver. You can talk about Petracca and Trengove as being like new recruits, but after coming of serious injuries, our expectations of them need to be tempered.

- You can talk about natural imrovement from a young list, but every other club outside the eight is saying the same thing.

- We have a tough draw. The wins we had last year against the Pies, Cats and Dogs will be harder to achieve.

Any analyst in their right mind should have us winning no more than 10 games. We could have a breakout year like the Dogs, but it's highly improbable.

 

The difference is the quality we have to work with. I believe our young midfield with the addition of Oliver is the best young group in the game, add Hogan and McDonald as KF & KB and you have fair bit to work with.

Don't undersell the impact of Petracca either, think Hogan last year coming off a serious injury...

Trengove is fingers crossed but if he overcomes the injury, and so far so good then he will be a better than good player for us.