R14-23: The Run Home

[Red and Bluebeard 2,044]

Re Essendon

Remember we will be playing the Bombers coming off the Darwin game. We may not recover sufficiently to play 4 quarters. Why the Darwin game is not scheduled just prior to the bye I don't understand.

Come on Earl, you know better than that. Common sense, AFL, the draw -- choose any two

[titan_uranus 22,685]

I don't mean to kill the optimism (this site is infinitely more enjoyable in times like this than, say, this time last week. Or even Sunday at 3.19pm), but really, all it's going to take is one loss to West Coast for the talk to turn to finishing bottom 4.

I think we are capable of beating every side in the run home except Fremantle in Perth (assuming they don't tank that game). I don't think we'll win them all of course, I'm not even sure we'll win half of them (we definitely could have won the Port and Collingwood games and we should have won the Saints game and finished that run 0-3). But when we play our best football we can beat West Coast, North, GWS, the Dogs, and then the lower-ranked sides in Essendon, Carlton, Brisbane and St Kilda.

Cohesion, fewer injuries, confidence (the Geelong game must surely give us a nice dose of that), and, possibly most of all, not getting ahead of ourselves, are key, as is the desire from the players to make the second half of the year a turning point for the club.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I don't mean to kill the optimism (this site is infinitely more enjoyable in times like this than, say, this time last week. Or even Sunday at 3.19pm), but really, all it's going to take is one loss to West Coast for the talk to turn to finishing bottom 4.

I think we are capable of beating every side in the run home except Fremantle in Perth (assuming they don't tank that game). I don't think we'll win them all of course, I'm not even sure we'll win half of them (we definitely could have won the Port and Collingwood games and we should have won the Saints game and finished that run 0-3). But when we play our best football we can beat West Coast, North, GWS, the Dogs, and then the lower-ranked sides in Essendon, Carlton, Brisbane and St Kilda.

Cohesion, fewer injuries, confidence (the Geelong game must surely give us a nice dose of that), and, possibly most of all, not getting ahead of ourselves, are key, as is the desire from the players to make the second half of the year a turning point for the club.

so you are saying people are getting carried away, yet you state yourself we could win 9 of the remaining 10 games? Most people are saying we will win about half, I think that's reasonable - however if somehow this epic victory has clicked their self-belief into another gear then you never know. It seems crazy but so did winning on Sunday. It seems like we simply don't have the cattle but over the last month half a dozen new blokes have put their hands up and shown us they can play footy. Last week in particular was the first time in a very long time we played 4 good quarters that weren't riddled with errors and everyone busted their guts. The Eagles will be very tough, but if we somehow pull that off, we have three extremely winnable ones after that. We will also have a few blokes back by then. We actually could be 8-8 and on a streak of 5 wins without too much craziness happening at all. #daretodream

BTW I would like to add for the record that I have been one of the handful of posters talking us up BEFORE Sunday. So I am not going to change the sails at the next breeze like some lightweights around here (cough cough you know who)

Edited June 23, 2015 by Curry & Beer

[titan_uranus 22,685]

so you are saying people are getting carried away, yet you state yourself we could win 9 of the remaining 10 games? Most people are saying we will win about half, I think that's reasonable - however if somehow this epic victory has clicked their self-belief into another gear then you never know. It seems crazy but so did winning on Sunday. It seems like we simply don't have the cattle but over the last month half a dozen new blokes have put their hands up and shown us they can play footy. Last week in particular was the first time in a very long time we played 4 good quarters that weren't riddled with errors and everyone busted their guts. The Eagles will be very tough, but if we somehow pull that off, we have three extremely winnable ones after that. We will also have a few blokes back by then. We actually could be 8-8 and on a streak of 5 wins without too much craziness happening at all. #daretodream

BTW I would like to add for the record that I have been one of the handful of posters talking us up BEFORE Sunday. So I am not going to change the sails at the next breeze like some lightweights around here (cough cough you know who)

Yes, we could win 9 of the last 10. We also could lose 9 of the last 10.

I agree that if we beat the Eagles and face that three-game stretch of Essendon, Brisbane and St Kilda with unbridled confidence and form on our side, we could well be 8-8 at Round 17. But as quickly as our thinking becomes overly-pessimistic after a loss (as you well know, some of the crap that people were saying about our chances in Geelong was ridiculous), it becomes overly-optimistic after a win.

You know as well as I do that a sizeable loss to West Coast (or really, just any loss) will change the bulk of the posting on here from 'how many can we win?' to 'we need a priority pick'.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

You know as well as I do that a sizeable loss to West Coast (or really, just any loss) will change the bulk of the posting on here from 'how many can we win?' to 'we need a priority pick'.

Definitely.. I'm just saying it really isn't that absurd when you break down the draw and consider the performance we just put in. In all likelihood we will have more injuries, younger players will tire, and we will put in some shockers, characterised by going flat for long periods, turnovers etc BUT if everything clicked for the rest of the year like it did Sunday then a spectacular finish to the season is not as crazy as it might at first seem

[What 18,810]

More than anything I want to beat the Kangaroos

How frustrating that mediocre club has dominated us for 10 years

Jack Viney on Brent Harvey, yes please

Edited June 23, 2015 by hogans_heroes

[Sideshow Bob 2,163]

i have always thought along the lines of 'winnable games' - looking at there are 5 dead set winnables, 3 challenges (coll/NM/giants) and 2 that should be out of reach (WC/Freo) - however upsets happen, we COULD knock off WC and/or Freo but at the same time we could get done by Carlton etc. Looking at how te boys set themselves for earlier 'winnables' and and just got shat on in the 'unwinnables' - it wouldn't surprise me if Roos and Co thought similarly

If we took home 3 or 4 of the winnables and snuck home against 1 or 2 of the challenges i'd be a happy boy. The next trick would be to get up over WC after the bye and have an awesome run of form going into Freo and claim a big big scalp in the run home.

in essence 5 or 6 in the run home would be just fricken fantastic - anymore and i'd shag my sister (if i had one!). i can sense a finish of 10th or so with some momentum for next year and hopefully a nicer draw to start with

[Binmans PA 26,337]

Ill stick to my pre season prediction 6-8 wins and being right in a lot of games for a long time is a good step forward

Agreed, mate. 6-8 wins. I will admit, I'd be disappointed now if we didn't get 8 though.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I think momentum and self belief are key elements than can take a team anywhere. Lets not forget Richmond just beat Fremantle at home. A lot will depend on where Freo is at come our game with them. Are they about to go through a mid season slump? Peaked too early??

Not sure the bye is coming at a good time, we play pretty badly after byes in recent times. The West Coast game maybe just too hard at this point.

If you look at the draw its a bit of a J curve, with each game slightly harder than the one before (with the probable exception of Carton) but even that wont be easy. I believe our momentum may start with wins over Essendon and Brisbane. Some winnable games at the G. Then it gets harder with StKilda and the Pies, but still at the G.If we can get over this hurdle and with some injured players returned, we have North our 5th game at the G in 5 weeks. Beating North will be a definable point and lead us to our great hoodoo ground and a game with the Doggies, who we have beaten. The momentum of a win at Jihad stadium would a team boost of massive proportions, way more than anything Steven Dank and co could dream up!

So are Carton going to stop us after a run like that? Hardly. Then we go to Perth. Yes its winnable, every game is. As i said before a lot will depend on where Fremantle is at, and us, come this game. Are they coming out of a form slump or perhaps resting their stars. Assuming we lost, that would leave us with the game against GWS to make the 8, finish 9th or somewhere thereabouts.

Will our young team surcome to injuries and a long season by or prior to this point? Probably. But it will be a very interesting ride.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Wadda We Sing

[btdemon 475]

Impossible to predict with any confidence and a lot will be determined by the players we get back from injury and how our young players cope in the later rounds of a long and brutal season. Getting Salem, vandenBerg and Garland back is important if we're to win the so-called 'winable' matches in the run home.

Eagles @ TIO Stadium: Eagles are no where near as good as the media claims them to be; but are far better than opposition supporters give them credit for. (probable loss)

Bombers @ MCG: Desperately out of form and shot for confidence; if we play with intensity and physicality we should win. (probable win)

Lions @ MCG: They knocked us off last year and will be confident to do it again. If we come to play and are physical and ruthless, we should win. (probable win)

Saints @ MCG: At home and with a few players back, we should win and win well. If the Geelong match was spurned on by the loss the previous week, we will hopefully be breathing fire against the Saints. (probable win)

Magpies @ MCG: I really rate their up and coming list, however it is a very young one. Our only chance is if they start to tire after a very strong first half of the year. (probable loss)

Kangaroos MCG: I don't think they have the personal or the game plan to win finals. They do however have the personal and gameplan to beat up on younger, weaker teams. (probable loss)

Bulldogs @ Etihad Stadium: Tough ask at Etihad where they play very well. They will be out to get us from the first bounce. We're every chance if we can pressure them as we did four weeks ago... but I really rate the Bulldogs. (probable loss)

Blues @ MCG: They'll think they're a chance here and will be preparing for a red hot go at us. If we can get on top early we should account for them. Can't let a team like this get any early confidence. (probable win)

Dockers @ Domain Stadium: Oh dear... (probable loss)

Giants @ Etihad Stadium: They've never feared us, even in their early days. A lot will depend on whether they're still a shot for the finals by then. They were very average on the weekend but are overflowing with fast and efficient ball carriers. Not liking this at Etihad either. (probable loss)

By my count that's 4 more wins and 6 more losses but, as I said, it's way too early to predict anything. I can pretty much guarantee we'll lose one we're expected to win and win one we're expected to lose... otherwise we'd all be much more successful gamblers!

This is a very realistic prediction. We played one out of the box on Sunday. We were all astonished. Our lineup was very NQR due to injuries, but we won. I don't expect us to perform consistently like this but would like to see the standards set in that game repeated more often. Having said that, I think we will still have the odd shocker and lose when we should win, and maybe even do the opposite and win when we aren't expected to. The important thing about the win against Geelong was our ferocity, the ability to stick to the plan and the consistency for four quarters.

That is the Roos game plan and it reminds me of how confident I was when Northey was coaching and we were in a tight one. We knew how to tie up the opposition an win those games. That hasn't been there at MFC since. Balme's, ND's and Dean Bailey's game plans have all been attacking but very vulnerable when the momentum shifts. I much prefer the defensive approach. It gives me more confidence in the tight ones.

[bananas 428]

Obviously I want us to win the last eleven games straight, charge into the finals and roll Hawthorn in the GF by 100 points as we win the first of five consecutive flags …

… but if we split the last ten rounds 50/50 (which I think most would agree is at least possible), that'd give us 9 wins for the season and be our best result since the Daniher years. Hard to be upset with that.

[Goodvibes 3,596]

Let's beat West Coast and come back to this thread. It's beautifully set up for a run but it all hinges on beating West Coast.

[Fork 'em 6,559]

I've been conditioned not to want for much.
But I do want Essendon.
Arrogant plicks.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Fork 'em

[barneymfc 152]

we can win 8 so finals are looking good

[Demon Dynasty 15,822]

There's an old football adage that's been bandied about in the past once or twice that I think is appropriate here.... let me try and remember.

Oh yes, now I recall it ... "One week at a time folks, one week at a time"

[What 18,810]

I've been conditioned not to want for much.

But I do want Essendon.

Arrogant plicks.

They have beaten us just once since 2009

The only loss was a game where Neeld had totally lost the players and where Essendon were getting the full benefits of their 'injection regime'

We own them.

Edited June 23, 2015 by hogans_heroes

[highroller 112]

if we beat WC anything is possible however knowing Demonland and our team we wont just go through the next 3 months with everything being peachy. There will be doom and gloom again sometime soon lets hope its not after the Darwin game.

[Gator 16,911]

I said 8-10 preseason and haven't changed my view.

I thought 8 was the bare minimum and haven't changed my view.

On track.

[Ethan Tremblay 28,488]

we can win 8 so finals are looking good

We are our own worst enemy.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

we can win 8 so finals are looking good

we will probably need to win 9 though

[The Chazz 4,077]

I posted this in a different thread a few weeks ago...

I did the ladder predictor on the AFL website and had us finishing with 9 wins for the season.

For the record, I did the predictor yesterday.

While I won't be broadcasting the games I had us winning (other than having us beating St Kilda and not beating Geelong!), I'm still satisfied with where I think we will finish the year.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Let's beat West Coast and come back to this thread. It's beautifully set up for a run but it all hinges on beating West Coast.

Lets send Casey to Darwin, rest the lads for 2 weeks, and resume against essendon for the beginning of the roll......

[Sir Why You Little 34,730]

Max Gawn reminded me last Sunday of the way Simon Madden played Footy during his long career

Step up again Max. You now know you can dominate....

Last sunday was all about getting first use of the ball

[grazman 6,602]

There's a lot to be said for supporters as well as players only taking it one game at a time. I had expectations for the team to win about 9 matches at the start of the year, our draw in the second half of the year is more forgiving than the first half, but there are still some significant hurdles for us to negotiate - starting with the ability to win back to back matches. I'm not sure as Melbourne supporters we should be arrogant enough to assume that any game can be regarded as a gimme.

The match against the Eagles will be a tough one in tough conditions, which we haven't traditionally backed up well from.

Hopefully like the players the coaching staff are at the top of their game and look at a way to quell the influence of Nic Nat, Priddis, McGovern, Kennedy, Le Cras, Darling, Hurn etc.

[rpfc 27,591]

If we can't beat Essendon I would be disappointed.

But we might be in one of those turbulent years where we surprise at both ends of the spectrum - win at Geelong and lose a 'gimmie.'