Who are we better than ??

[Binmans PA 26,283]

Might have to rethink the Dogs. Watching them now giving Adelaide a hard time.

The Doggies look good, but Adelaide aren't playing. There's no intensity.

[Demon Dynasty 15,658]

Just to add some stats ....yeh i know it's often a load of cobblers but i'll throw it into this discussion for fun

Demons vs League (averages)

A few Key (or Bulldust) stats, however you wish to view them. I've gone from best to worst rank here.

Tackle Count - 2nd

Contested Possessions - 2nd

Contested Marks - 4th

Rebound 50 - 5th

Clearances - 7th

Hit Outs - 8th (to advantage!??)

Goals - 14th

Effective Disposal %, Marks i50, Inside 50s - 17th*

Uncontested Possessions - 18th*

*Our biggest concerns for mine, especially effective disposal % which is substantially down. 67.3% (17th) vs 73.8% (4th) last year. Our uncontested ave is the same as last year which indicates other teams have upped the ante on spread/run & carry. 218.5 this year (last so far) v 218.4 in 2014 (11th). Teams who win uncontested have tended to have a positive win/loss ratio in the long haul in the last few years as well as this season. 27 games won up until last week and 18 of those were by teams who won the uncontested count. Hawthorn were No.1 in uncontested as well as No.1 in effective disposal % in 2014. They were also No.3 & No.2 respectively in 2013!

The top 5 uncontested teams so far this year...

1. Hawks

2. GWS

3. Bombers

4. Power

5. Dockers

Edited April 26, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[Thrice 216]

Just to add some stats ....yeh i know it's often a load of cobblers but i'll throw it into this discussion for fun

Demons vs League (averages)

A few Key (or Bulldust) stats, however you wish to view them. I've gone from best to worst rank here.

Tackle Count - 2nd

Contested Possessions - 2nd

Contested Marks - 4th

Rebound 50 - 5th

Clearances - 7th

Hit Outs - 8th (to advantage!??)

Goals - 14th

Effective Disposal %, Marks i50, Inside 50s - 17th*

Uncontested Possessions - 18th*

*Our biggest concerns for mine, especially effective disposal % which is substantially down. 67.3% (17th) vs 73.8% (4th) last year. Our uncontested ave is the same as last year which indicates other teams have upped the ante on spread/run & carry. 218.5 this year (last so far) v 218.4 in 2014 (11th). Teams who win uncontested have tended to have a positive win/loss ratio in the long haul in the last few years as well as this season. 27 games won up until last week and 18 of those were by teams who won the uncontested count. Hawthorn were No.1 in uncontested as well as No.1 in effective disposal % in 2014. They were also No.3 & No.2 respectively in 2013!

The top 5 uncontested teams so far this year...

1. Hawks

2. GWS

3. Bombers

4. Power

5. Dockers

Whilst I'm not taking away from the substance of your post, playing two games (of four) in the wet will have a substantial impact on disposal effectiveness and uncontested possessions. It would also potentially lift the contested possessions & clearances higher due to the greater number of contests.

To me the biggest issue is the perennial one: The awful Inside 50 count. Thankfully we have a function forward line this year, so we are converting at a high % of entries (2nd?). But in order to be able to mix it with mid-table sides we have to be nearing break even on inside 50s when we play them. We can't rely on teams choking inside 50 (GC and Tiges) because when they don't (Crows and GWS), we lose.

[rpfc 27,570]

The uncontested numbers are down because we have played in the wet last two weeks and played a half of footy the week before that...

[PaulRB 5,979]

Watched the game, and there was a stat that caught my attention

- 18th in competition for average Inside 50s at 42.7 (52.3)

- 2nd in competition for average scores per forward entry (I couldn't find this stat online...)

- ?nd in competition for average score per opposition forward entry (anyone?)

If we can improve our I50s we seem to have the potency to make teams pay... means we'll only be better than midfields we can beat or break even with.

Edited April 26, 2015 by PaulRB

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Sides we are better than.

Collingwood.

Tigers.

Suns.

Brisbane.

Eagles.

Carlton.

St Kilda.

Sides we are just below.

Geelong.

North.

Adelaide.

Essendon.

if we are not better than essendon how come we keep beating them...

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,941]

As brilliant as Geelong have been watching them today was painful.

Would love to beat them and North. Both teams have beaten up on us for years, both today were bloody ordinary.

[Demon Dynasty 15,658]

Whilst I'm not taking away from the substance of your post, playing two games (of four) in the wet will have a substantial impact on disposal effectiveness and uncontested possessions. It would also potentially lift the contested possessions & clearances higher due to the greater number of contests.

To me the biggest issue is the perennial one: The awful Inside 50 count. Thankfully we have a function forward line this year, so we are converting at a high % of entries (2nd?). But in order to be able to mix it with mid-table sides we have to be nearing break even on inside 50s when we play them. We can't rely on teams choking inside 50 (GC and Tiges) because when they don't (Crows and GWS), we lose.

The uncontested numbers are down because we have played in the wet last two weeks and played a half of footy the week before that...

Yeh think we're on the same page. Not saying the sample size is adequate given it's only 4 games. Just putting it out there as an early indicator of "possible" trending vs other teams on certain junk stats. I agree the wet may have played a role and the fact we went missing in last 2.5 quarters against GWS didnt help matters. But you have to also look at what your opponents are doing which may have caused some of our poor play there. And GWS are blitzing on the uncontested stat up till now so... maybe?

Dockers are on top of ladder atm as well and also rank highly on effective disposal % / uncontested. Winning spread/run & carry kind of relates to an improved % as you generally have the extra time/space to dispose more effectively (according to the experts on these things). I'm also wondering if some teams like the Dockers/Power/Bombers & GWS have been learning the Hawthorn style and finally starting to catch up with them. Starting to beat them at their own squeeze and stretch style of game if you like.

Maybe Roos is running his own "contrarian" style here as well. Asking the boys to play a more direct "risk/reward" style of game through the middle vs last year. This could be placing more pressure on clean disposals as we make our way through a more congested area of the ground, rather than the previous years which were mostly out wide and down the line style of play with alot of sideways/back tracking. If my memory serves me correct we had the worst yardage gained from disposals of any team last year so most of our possessions resulted in us going sideways/backwards. I would like to see how we are fairing in that area this year. Champion data & Clubs have all that juicy stuff of course. Be nice if clubs would share a few snippets now and then.

Edited April 26, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 15,658]

Watched the game, and there was a stat that caught my attention

- 18th in competition for average Inside 50s at 42.7 (52.3)

- 2nd in competition for average scores per forward entry (I couldn't find this stat online...)

- ?nd in competition for average score per opposition forward entry (anyone?)

If we can improve our I50s we seem to have the potency to make teams pay... means we'll only be better than midfields we can beat or break even with.

i50s are obviously critical Paul but you also need to be able to keep it in there as long as possible. We don't get to see the juicy data on pressure acts and tackles in our own forward 50 so we don't have alot to go on here other than the opposition's rebound 50 stat and what we see unfolding in the actual game.

One of the key stats we do have to run on though for keeping it there is Marks inside 50 which we aren't doing so well at so far (17th). Given our limited entries i would suggest we def need to improve in this area. That's why i am a much happier chappy when i see Howe running around in our forward 50 arc or thereabouts. I would have him down there every time in place of Dawes/Watts who i believe would both be better playing roles down back, assuming Howe is in the team/fit, and in the case of Dawes, a part time ruck role when the Russian is resting as we saw on Friday night.

Marking inside 50 is also a result of how you deliver it there i realise. Plenty of room for improvement in this area for us hopefully

Edited April 26, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[stuie 7,374]

It's round 4.

Everyone have a bex and a lie down.

[bing181 8,176]

Don't believe we're better than Bulldogs.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,525]

Don't believe we're better than Bulldogs.

We'll see in a few weeks. I think we're about par with them, they've got more raw talent but I think we're better defensively. Will be a good match up as they generally are against them.

[AzzKikA 2,371]

We are better than the next team we play against and beat. No more no less.

[Dommygun12 79]

Without a doubt for me carlton saints lions id love to say geelong but I still think they will have a good patch when they finally get going

[Robbie57 1,991]

What we are is competitive which makes every game winnable if we maintain our effort and with a bit of luck. We can now go to most games with some genuine hope in our hearts. The run of games coming up is going to be pretty brutal but we might just jag one of them.

[Wormburner 674]

It's round 4.

Everyone have a bex and a lie down.

Lol, I'm sure whatever optimism we have right now is going to be shattered after our next three matches.

[FarNorthernD 5,848]

I have a theory. It isn't particularly revolutionary but here goes

Backs. Probably as good as any in the league. We also have some depth too. Whilst we all would prefer to have Jetta playing I don't think Grimes replacing him will be as bad as some may believe

Forwards. Garlett and Hogan obviously improve us markedly. If it comes down into the fwd fifty we score more often than most sides.

Mids. We are improving but we still suck. Against lesser midfield combos such as the Tigers (without Delidio) and an underdone Gold Coast we win games. Against fast breaking sides with bucketfulls of talent like GWS we are knackered.

So my theory is it is not which sides we are better than but really which midfield teams. Because of that I can't see us doing any better than 14th this year but with the addition of two more class mids and some development of our youngsters I can see us climbing the ladder rapidly in 2016. We are near the tipping point

[beelzebub 22,243]

We're at least better than those demons ver20.14

[Radar Detector 1,339]

On the evidence available so far this season (a small sample mind you) we appear to have overtaken Brisbane, Gold Coast and Carlton and remain in front of St Kilda.

We are in a pack of teams whose best footy is pretty good but who could also lose to any of the bottom teams on a given day. Teams like West Coast and Richmond are in that group. The Doggies are too (to be fair, they look a touch ahead of us at this point but in striking distance).

Collingwood is another rung above IMO with the likes of North and Essendon. Geelong is anyone's guess as they have started terribly but losses to Freo, Hawthorn and North make their form line tough to read.

All in all, I think we should be happy with a 2-2 start to the season. I think we should be aiming for an 8 win season which is a 33% hit rate from here on out.

[CityDee 738]

Beat freo at the coal face this week and always one week at a time

[Macca 16,173]

We've got a tough 6 weeks coming up ... any win against Freo, Syd, Hawks, Dogs, Port or the Pies will be a hard earned one, After that, it gets a hell of a lot easier. 2 wins in the next 6 games would leave us at 4/6 (which is sort of acceptable) But that's from a supporters point of view ... the playing list and FD will only be thinking about winning any game.

The team has already won 2 games that most thought we'd lose and we really should have beaten Adelaide too (lost the game against the Crows in the last few minutes of the 1st quarter and the first few minutes of the 3rd quarter)

We desperately need the players who are coming into the side because of injury to play their part ... and we need to see an improvement from the rest of the team (as good as we've been, there's still loads of room for improvement)

I reckon the key is our forward line - Dawes & Watts both need to do a lot more and both can ... Hogan just needs to keep playing the way he is and our small forwards need to play their part. Another performing marking target on occasions (vanders?) would place pressure on the opposition too. Of course, the forward line is dependent on the midfield so they need to continue their improvement too. We could ill afford to lose Tyson.

As for who we're better than - it's way too early to tell but the speculation is a bit of fun. 10 wins will make us better than a number of sides ... and 10 wins is achievable.

.

Edited April 27, 2015 by Macca

[Samael 560]

Lol, I'm sure whatever optimism we have right now is going to be shattered after our next three matches.

I know where you are coming from but I think the difference this season will be that whilst we are most likely to be beaten in the next 3 rounds we will be competitive. Tiny steps. I don't like the term honorable losses, that is what I am hoping for in these games (bit like the Adelaide game where with a bit of luck we could have won). Past seasons would have seen us smashed and dispatched without a whimper. I am hoping that this year we will be up there with them even if we lose. But then I think of the GWS game this year and get worried because the next three teams will beat Great Waste of Space.

[Samael 560]

I have a theory. It isn't particularly revolutionary but here goes

Backs. Probably as good as any in the league. We also have some depth too. Whilst we all would prefer to have Jetta playing I don't think Grimes replacing him will be as bad as some may believe

Forwards. Garlett and Hogan obviously improve us markedly. If it comes down into the fwd fifty we score more often than most sides.

Mids. We are improving but we still suck. Against lesser midfield combos such as the Tigers (without Delidio) and an underdone Gold Coast we win games. Against fast breaking sides with bucketfulls of talent like GWS we are knackered.

So my theory is it is not which sides we are better than but really which midfield teams. Because of that I can't see us doing any better than 14th this year but with the addition of two more class mids and some development of our youngsters I can see us climbing the ladder rapidly in 2016. We are near the tipping point

Think you have something there but to be honest our Mids were off that day, particularly Jones. I think as evidenced on Friday they are going much better, Jones has had his one bad game for the year and the rest were pretty good.

Want to be biased a bit but Viv added some grunt and his game in the NAB cup against the Dockers was pretty good as you would expect from a team he knows better than his own. If he gets a full game he will be an even better in. Still astounded that from half a game on Friday he got 5 less disposals than our top (Jones) he had the equal most I50s (Jones) and a quarter of the goal assists, From the replay he passed the ball to 4 players who score but I don't know the definition of a goal assist. He does it without standing out which I like cause he sneaks up on opponents.

[Leoncelli_36 2,264]

Far too early to start saying who we are better than in the comp at Round 4. I will say this though, we have proven that if we bring intensity and 2 way running for 4 quarters, we are a very competitive outfit and I feel as though we can take it up to any side. The next three weeks will be a good indication of where we are at.

I do feel like we are a chance against any side at the moment though, as long as we bring the intensity and daring game we have in Rd 1 and 4 and for a hald in Rd 2. It s a feeling that I can't remember having since 2007. From 98-2007 under Danners, I also went to games with the belief we were a chance. I believe Rosy has got us to a level that if a Top 4 side is off 10% we can pinch a win. At this stage I expect 9-11 wins. However, we have still only beaten sides that we beat in the last three years. It'd be nice to beat someone in the next three weeks to gauge where we are at.

Edited April 27, 2015 by Leoncelli_36

[Little Goffy 12,703]

Melbourne. We are better than Melbourne.