Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 17

[Demonland 70,255]

FLEETING MOMENTS by Whispering Jack

There was a fleeting moment earlier in the week when I thought to myself, "we might win this." My logic was based on the fact that a little over a week ago, Melbourne came very close to beating the Western Bulldogs with a final score of 13.7.85 to 14.7.91.

It was a defeat by a mere goal and we know full well that had the umpires used their whistles properly in those dying moments, a different result might well have ensued. And some tighter play on first year Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli might have prevented those final two snap shot goals from out of his backside that won his team the four points.

So moving forward seven days, the same Bulldogs took on Geelong who are Melbourne's opponents this week but this time they registered not one but two scoring shots at goal more than their opponent to score 7.14.56 to 10.9.69. However, this time, they lost by 13 points.

You know where I'm going here. It's a trap many of us fall into when comparing the performance of teams over two games. I agonise over why could the Doggies not have kicked that 7.14 against us instead of 14.7. I also figure that if there's only one scoring shot difference between Melbourne and Geelong in consecutive games against the Bullies, then we have to be somewhere in the same ball park.

Right?

Wrong?

Wrong, because I look at how Melbourne went even more recently - last Saturday night against Fremantle - and then I ask myself the rhetorical question, " what was I thinking?"

I made the point some weeks earlier when Melbourne seemed to be coming out of its shell to surprise some reasonably good opposition with its grinding defensive play, that it was time for coach Paul Roos to encourage a little more attacking flair in the team. Instead of playing the game in stop, start pedestrian style that often can break down with skill errors, I advocated in favour of the players taking the game on a little bit but that's starting to look like a forlorn hope. Instead, we are seeing a different pattern emerging; one in which we try to assert defensive pressure and are broken down because we've become so predictable in how we play.

In the end, the opposition get a run on as we lose confidence and those big bursts of goals more or less put us out of contention.

Against Geelong this week, Melbourne is particularly exposed because even though the Cats aren't anywhere near their peak, they play exactly the type of game that breaks the defensive mould and then destroys it. I therefore can't see Melbourne coming close this week. Not even for a fleeting moment.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Geelong at the MCG on Saturday 12 July 2014 at 1.45pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 83 wins Geelong 125 wins 2 draws

At the MCG Melbourne 51 wins 51 Geelong wins

The last five years Melbourne 0 wins Geelong 5 wins

The Coaches Roos 0 Scott 0

MEDIA

TV - Fox Sports Channel live at 1.30pm

RADIO -Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $7.00 Geelong to win $1.10

LAST TIME THEY MET Geelong 13.20.98 defeated Melbourne 4.6.30 at Simonds Stadium in Round 16, 2013

It rained at Skilled Stadium and Melbourne had trouble in getting the ball into its forward half. The Demons managed a pitiful 19 incursions into the forward 50 (a record low) against 70 from the Cats. There are those who think it won't be much better this week.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Lynden Dunn, James Frawley, Colin Garland

HB: Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta

C: Jack Grimes, Bernie Vince, Jordie McKenzie

HF: Matt Jones, Cam Pedersen, Jack Watts

F: Rohan Bail, Chris Dawes, Jack Viney

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Dom Tyson, Nathan Jones

I/C: Dean Kent, Aidan Riley, Luke Tapscott, Dean Terlich

EMG: Sam Blease, Max Gawn, Christian Salem

IN: Neville Jetta, Aidan Riley, Luke Tapscott

OUT: Dom Barry, Max Gawn, Christian Salem

GEELONG

B: Corey Enright, Tom Lonergan, Andrew Mackie

HB: Cameron Guthrie, Harry Taylor, Jared Rivers

C: Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood, Travis Varcoe

HF: Allen Christensen, Shane Kersten, Jordan Murdoch

F: Steven Motlop, Tom Hawkins, Steve Johnson

FOLL: Hamish McIntosh, James Kelly, Josh Caddy

I/C: Mark Blicavs, Mitch Duncan, Brad Hartman,George Horlin-Smith

EMG: Jed Bews, Dawson Simpson, Billie Smedts

IN: James Kelly

OUT: Jed Bews (omitted)

It's a common story whenever Melbourne plays that it has to achieve a substantial breakthrough even to think of winning a game.

This week's opposition, Geelong, has not only won the last nine encounters between the teams - it has done so by an average winning margin of 12 goals. These wins have come at the MCG, at the Cattery, in fine weather and foul, in wind and driving rain.

If that's not enough, Melbourne has to butter up after a loss up in the tropical Top End. Not only does it have a problem winning games up there, it has even more difficulty in winning games immediately after the long trip north.

And if that doesn't take care of the Demons, let's not forget that the Cats have a top four spot at stake and defeat at the hands of a bottom four team would surely be a catastrophe for them and the sleepy hollow of a town they represent.

It would seem that the Demons' selectors have recognised some of the issues facing the team of late by omitting a few youngsters in Dom Barry, Max Gawn and Christian Salem and replacing them with a few stronger, harder bodied types like Aidan Riley and Luke Tapscott along with Neville Jetta returning from suspension.

But the Demons need more than just a harder edge - they need a capacity to score, more avenues to goal and a way to move the ball a little more quickly than they have done of late.

They have this penchant in recent times of kicking ridiculously low scores of three, four or five goals and with the conditions likely to be fairly dire - showers easing and local hail - I'm not holding out much hope of a big score. In terrible conditions last year, the Dees averaged less than five inside 50 entries per quarter for a total of four goals. On last week's form against the Dockers, can we expect much more?

If there is to be a chance, then it might come in the most unlikely of places - the middle of the ground where Geelong has struggled to win clearances and create goal scoring opportunities for itself. If the likes of the Jones boys, Jack Viney and Dom Tysom can take charge at the stoppages and at the feet of an in form Mark Jamar and Jordie McKenzie can take care of Joel Selwood, there might be a brief ray of hope.

But I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting.

Geelong by 37 points

[stuie 7,374]

Melbourne team: round 17

B: Lynden Dunn, James Frawley, Colin Garland

HB: Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta

C: Jack Grimes, Bernie Vince, Jordie McKenzie

HF: Matt Jones, Cam Pedersen, Jack Watts

F: Rohan Bail, Chris Dawes, Jack Viney

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Dom Tyson, Nathan Jones

I/C: Dean Terlich, Dean Kent, Aidan Riley, Luke Tapscott

EMG: Max Gawn, Christian Salem, Sam Blease

IN: Luke Tapscott, Neville Jetta, Aidan Riley

OUT: Max Gawn, Christian Salem, Dom Barry

http://www.melbournefc.com.au/teams

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,836]

Good changes. Looks much better balance than last week. Salem and Barry need to go back and work on consistency and Riley and Tapscott both deserving of their chance.

[Nasher 33,607]

Good luck Tappy. I have low expectations but hope for his sake that he can conjure up a Jetta like reversal.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

I would still love JKH in there as well.

[Deeoldfart 7,993]

Good changes for the forecast weather conditions. Terlich the sub?

[bjDee 1,249]

Good changes for the forecast weather conditions. Terlich the sub?

Hope so.

[DemonOX 8,696]

I really like Tappy and hope he makes the most of his opportunity.

If he plays his role he will stay in the senior team which seems to be the basis of being kept in the seniors.

Good luck Tappy, show em what u got.

[P-man 13,366]

Carn Tappy.

[SaberFang 7,151]

Did JKH run over Roosy's dog? Starting to think we won't see him again this year.

[old dee 23,487]

I look at the two sides and there is an ability gulf between them.

They have talented players all over the ground.

The Cats by eight goals

However if we start as slow as last week then I shudder to think what the result could be.

[Bay Riffin 1,454]

Did JKH run over Roosy's dog? Starting to think we won't see him again this year.

No real harm in a first year player getting a taste then going back to the ressies for a while

[Sir Why You Little 36,621]

Anger management followed by pain killers.

This one is going to hurt.

[Deespicable 2,672]

So Dom Barry is so good that we signed him up for two years (not one) and on the same day we drop him! Go figure.

Having said that, at least we have picked a very strong-bodied side for the Cats, albeit a slow one.

[old dee 23,487]

So Dom Barry is so good that we signed him up for two years (not one) and on the same day we drop him! Go figure.

Having said that, at least we have picked a very strong-bodied side for the Cats, albeit a slow one.

First you have to have a list of 40 players, I am not a fan but I will trust the FD on this one who knows what he will be like in 2016.

Second it is going to be cold, wet and windy we need more low to the ground players IMO.

[monoccular 17,315]

So Dom Barry is so good that we signed him up for two years (not one) and on the same day we drop him! Go figure.

Having said that, at least we have picked a very strong-bodied side for the Cats, albeit a slow one.

You, I, and I presume nobody here knows just what Mr Roos said to Dom after last weekend's game, or at training. I cannot see much linkage between his signing and his being left out of this week's squad. For all we know when selected 2 weeks ago he may have been told to make the most of it because you are only getting two for a taste, then back to Casey to see what you have learned.

[Samael 560]

Did JKH run over Roosy's dog? Starting to think we won't see him again this year.

He has only had one quality game since he went back. Looks like his is very annoyed at being in the two's.

[Nasher 33,607]

Did JKH run over Roosy's dog? Starting to think we won't see him again this year.

Alternatively it could be that Roos is letting him develop at his own pace, as he said he would do from when he walked in the door.

[Nasher 33,607]

He has only had one quality game since he went back. Looks like his is very annoyed at being in the two's.

He's a first year player, for crying out loud. I highly doubt he is "annoyed" at being in the twos, and if he is, he needs a good shot of reality.

[jackaub 1,402]

I look at the two sides and there is an ability gulf between them.

They have talented players all over the ground.

The Cats by eight goals

However if we start as slow as last week then I shudder to think what the result could be.

Maybe 12 or 13 but its wet Stevie does a hamstring Bartel gets hit by Tapscott Who knows?

[Wiseblood 24,637]

He's a first year player, for crying out loud. I highly doubt he is "annoyed" at being in the twos, and if he is, he needs a good shot of reality.

People will pull anything out of thing air about our players these days. The three that come in this week, for example, are well ahead of JKH and deserve their chance.

It seems unfathomable that a first year player might have to continue to learn his craft in the magoos for a few weeks these days...

[What 18,810]

its now or never for Tappy

Hopefully he can finally deliver, would be a great boost to have someone of that physical strength and brute force find their feet at AFL level

Edited July 10, 2014 by hogans_heroes

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

this will be another smashing from these smug pr1cks, with that boofheaded [censored] 'Stevie J' doing as he pleases again. It will be cold and wet and we will be awful and I'm furious about it already.

[picket fence 16,655]

this will be another smashing from these smug pr1cks, with that boofheaded [censored] 'Stevie J' doing as he pleases again. It will be cold and wet and we will be awful and I'm furious about it already.

Dear Curry n Beer

Take my advice.....

have less curry , so you won't blow ya top as much

and More beer so you can numb the pain away!!

Cheers mate

"Fence"

Go Dees I"m tipping an upset ..........................................................................!

[Ted Lasso 18,776]

this will be another smashing from these smug pr1cks, with that boofheaded [censored] 'Stevie J' doing as he pleases again. It will be cold and wet and we will be awful and I'm furious about it already.

I absolutely hate Stevie J, the most smug idiot I have ever seen, I hope Roosy has bought Tappy in just to knock him into next week