Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 9

[Demonland 72,186]

98.6 by Whispering Jack

98.6.

That number isn't a reference to one's normal body temperature but to a percentage. It's a figure I made up because I can't be sure of the precise amount but it refers to what I assess is the percentage of match time that Melbourne seemed "up and about" last Saturday night against the Western Bulldogs whereas, in order to win, it required the full 100%.

We'll debate that dubious free kick to the Bulldogs' Stewart Crameri that put them in front five minutes from the end but from that point on Melbourne fell suddenly into the old pattern where lapses of concentration and effort both in defence and in attack put paid to its winning chances.

The heart was in the mouth as Matt Jones ran down the heart of the MCG only to falter with that kick for goal that would have restored the lead and given the team an enormous confidence boost so late in the game.

It's worth pointing out that, at this stage of the season, Melbourne leads the competition in one statistic - it allows its opposition to score a goal from just 20% of inside 50s. Bearing that in mind, immediately after the Matt Jones behind, the Bulldogs were allowed to go effortlessly coast to coast against a defence that held so tight for most of the evening bringing back memories of recent calamities and, in no time at all, it was game, set and match.

And that's what the game is about when you reach the point where you're doing better in percentage terms than the freezing point figure of 32 where Melbourne has been in terms of effort and ability for most of the last decade. These days, you must be running at your best every week; you need to produce 100% which is where Melbourne needs to be throughout this week's game against Richmond.

THE GAME

Richmond v Melbourne on Saturday 17 May, 2014 at 1.40pm at the MCG

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Richmond 103 wins Melbourne 72 wins Drawn 2

At MCG Richmond 68 wins Melbourne 60 wins Drawn 1

Past five years Richmond 4 wins Melbourne 1 win

The Coaches Hardwick 0 wins Roos 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel 1:30pm (live)

RADIO - Triple M 3AW SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Richmond - $1.05 Melbourne to win - $5.50

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Richmond 15.16.106 defeated Melbourne 11.6.72 Round 8, 2013 at the MCG

The Demons made a good fist of things for more than half a game before ultimately falling away to lose by 34 points. Aaron Davey was Melbourne's best.

THE TEAMS

RICHMOND

B: Troy Chaplin, David Astbury, Alex Rance

HB: Bachar Houli, Ben Lennon, Steven Morris

C: Shaun Grigg, Daniel Jackson, Reece Conca

HF: Dustin Martin, Ben Griffiths, Brett Deledio

F: Shane Edwards, Jack Riewoldt, Ty Vickery

FOLL: Shaun Hampson, Brandon Ellis, Trent Cotchin

I/C: Nathan Foley, Sam Lloyd, Matt McDonough, Nick Vlastuin

EMG: Jake Batchelor, Nathan Gordon, Ricky Petterd

IN: Nathan Foley, Ben Griffiths, Ben Lennon

OUT: Aaron Edwards (omitted), Nathan Gordon (omitted), Chris Newman (calf)

NEW: Ben Lennon (Northern Knights)

MELBOURNE

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Colin Garland

HB: Dean Terlich, Lynden Dunn, Jack Grimes

C: Bernie Vince, Jack Viney, Daniel Cross

HF: Jack Watts, Max Gawn, Jeremy Howe

F: Cam Pedersen, Chris Dawes, Rohan Bail

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson

I/C: Matt Jones, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Aidan Riley, Christian Salem

EMG: Alex Georgiou, Jordie McKenzie, Jimmy Toumpas

IN: Max Gawn, Aidan Riley

OUT: Shannon Byrnes (foot), James Frawley (hamstring)

TOM HAFEY

The match has fittingly been designated as the tribute game to Tom Hafey who lost his battle with cancer earlier in the week.

Before Hafey arrived on the scene to coach Richmond, the Tigers were a battling club regularly occupying a place at the foot of the VFL ladder. In those days, fifty years ago, our own Norm Smith was the leading coach in the sport with six premierships under his belt in the decade to 1964.

Smith's mantle as the doyen of coaches was taken by Hafey who led the Tigers to the first of his four flags in 1967 and who then went on to reinvigorate the Collingwood Football Club. He was a model citizen who set an example of fitness and demanded high standards of behaviour that ushered in the professional era of our sport. May his soul rest in peace.

NO QUESTION

There's no question that the Tigers are the big disappointment of the competition to date. Having finally made it to the finals in 2013 only to be unceremoniously dumped out by "stand in" finallists Carlton, it was said that Richmond was approaching this season with a single-minded determination to not only atone for that embarrassing elimination final loss at the hands of their traditional rivals but also to go at least one or two steps beyond their final outcome for last season.

They started the new year disastrously on the Gold Coast, extracted revenge against the Blues and scraped in against lowly Brisbane but were also spanked by Collingwood and Hawthorn before producing some gallantry in going down narrowly to Geelong at their last start. Defeat at the hands of Melbourne, their NAB Cup conqueror in February, could spell the end to their hopes and have their legion of fans up in arms and ready to consign their membership tickets to the microwave again.

It was Melbourne's new look midfield that took Richmond by surprise when they met earlier in the year at that pre season game at Etihad Stadium. If the Tigers can't beat the Demons handsomely in this important sector then they simply can't win because Melbourne has a slight but discernable advantage over its opponent nearly everywhere else on the the field.

[Whispering_Jack 30,106]

98.6 ...

MELBOURNE

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Colin Garland

HB: Dean Terlich, Lynden Dunn, Jack Grimes

C: Bernie Vince, Jack Viney, Daniel Cross

HF: Jack Watts, Max Gawn, Jeremy Howe

F: Cam Pedersen, Chris Dawes, Rohan Bail

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson

I/C: Matt Jones, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Aidan Riley, Christian Salem

EMG: Alex Georgiou, Jordie McKenzie, Jimmy Toumpas

IN: Max Gawn, Aidan Riley

OUT: Shannon Byrnes (foot), James Frawley (hamstring)

Welcome Aiden Riley!

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

pigdog!

[monoccular 17,428]

It will be interesting to see if Salem gets a full game.m

I haven't seen any of pig dog in action - where does he play (other than at the bottom of a pack)?

And welcome back Max!

[DemonOX 8,791]

Emergencies are interesting too. Good to c some consistent performances in the 2s are getting their names up in lights so to speak.

Love Gawn and Riley as the ins.

[Nasher 33,616]

I take that to mean Pedersen will play as a defender and Gawn to play the forward/ruck role Pedersen has been playing.

First time we've had two true rucks in the side in any recent history. Hopefully the big lad is up to the challenge.

Can't wait to see how Riley goes. Has earned his place by the sounds of it.

[CityDee 738]

We lose Frawley but I dont feel as worried . Anyways great work Roosy .

[Gorgoroth 12,950]

PIIIIIGGGGGGGG DDDDDDDDAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWWGGGGGGGGGGG

Is what I hope to be able to scream at the game.

I hope he is a good player just due to that nickname.

[45HG 1,539]

I take that to mean Pedersen will play as a defender and Gawn to play the forward/ruck role Pedersen has been playing.

First time we've had two true rucks in the side in any recent history. Hopefully the big lad is up to the challenge.

Can't wait to see how Riley goes. Has earned his place by the sounds of it.

I wonder who will be "first ruck."

Jamar doesn't mind getting forward, nor does Gawn. Ruck time could be split pretty evenly and without Maric we can hopefully make it a massive bonus.

[DeeSpencer 25,701]

Option 1: Pedersen goes down back

- Takes either Griffiths or Vickery and potentially means Dunn or Howe go forward

Option 2 : Pedersen plays as a full time forward

- Rotates with Dawes at CHF as either up the ground or closer to goal

Option 3: Gawn plays as a full time forward

- Slightly more controversial but Pedersen has been going really well in the ruck as a mobile back up and Gawn is dangerous as a big unit in the goal square

I think we will start with Pedersen forward and hope he can make an impact and that Dunn and Garland can play well as slightly undersized key defenders. But there is an option for changes if it doesn't work.

Edited May 15, 2014 by the master

[titan_uranus 25,018]

I take that to mean Pedersen will play as a defender and Gawn to play the forward/ruck role Pedersen has been playing.

First time we've had two true rucks in the side in any recent history. Hopefully the big lad is up to the challenge.

Can't wait to see how Riley goes. Has earned his place by the sounds of it.

Agreed.

I was thinking that Georgiou might be recalled to bolster the defence but Gawn forward means we can now play Pedersen back, which solves that problem.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,239]

I expect Gawn's primary role will be to take marks close to goal (kicking distance for him is not great). If he takes a couple of early grabs it will take a lot of pressure off Dawes and really stretch the toiges defence.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,239]

I expect Gawn's primary role will be to take marks close to goal (kicking distance for him is not great). If he takes a couple of early grabs it will take a lot of pressure off Dawes and really stretch the toiges defence.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,176]

I would think Pederson will go back. Dunn forward and Gawn to play deep forward/relief ruck.

I have not seen Riley at all, really looking forward to it.

[DeeSpencer 25,701]

Best thing I like about Gawny might be his passion, enthusiasm and energy. He's never afraid to get excited. So I'm hoping we see that.

Not sure what to expect from Riley. I think he'll either

1. Spend a bit of time forward, maybe as a defensive forward

2. Tag

Can't really see him playing 75% game time in the guts (his best position) with Jones, Viney, Tyson, Cross in the team. I don't know how he'll go tagging. He's a natural tackler but I'm worried his lack of fitness not doing a big preseason might leave him short a gallop.

I expect him to just run around and attack the ball and see what happens.

[titan_uranus 25,018]

I expect Gawn's primary role will be to take marks close to goal (kicking distance for him is not great). If he takes a couple of early grabs it will take a lot of pressure off Dawes and really stretch the toiges defence.

I think his role is threefold. One is to provide another tall forward target (a lot more important with Frawley out). Another is to assist Jamar in the ruck (Pedersen's done a fantastic job of that of late, but that can't be our long term plan I don't think). A third is a byproduct of the second, which is to free up Pedersen to play in defence, to ensure we don't have to use Dunn as a key defender again.

[titan_uranus 25,018]

Best thing I like about Gawny might be his passion, enthusiasm and energy. He's never afraid to get excited. So I'm hoping we see that.

Not sure what to expect from Riley. I think he'll either

1. Spend a bit of time forward, maybe as a defensive forward

2. Tag

Can't really see him playing 75% game time in the guts (his best position) with Jones, Viney, Tyson, Cross in the team. I don't know how he'll go tagging. He's a natural tackler but I'm worried his lack of fitness not doing a big preseason might leave him short a gallop.

I expect him to just run around and attack the ball and see what happens.

I'm hoping that Riley in the middle helps us push Grimes into the backline again. If that means Riley tags, then so be it. I'd rather that than Grimes tagging again.

[beelzebub 23,372]

OUT: Shannon Byrnes (foot)

Bit harsh to single out a foot, plenty of other elements to choose

[CHAMP 347]

"It's worth pointing out that, at this stage of the season, Melbourne leads the competition in one statistic - it allows its opposition to score a goal from just 20% of inside 50s. Bearing that in mind, immediately after the Matt Jones behind, the Bulldogs were allowed to go effortlessly coast to coast against a defence that held so tight for most of the evening bringing back memories of recent calamities and, in no time at all, it was game, set and match."

Indeed WJ, but against the Dogs the defence allowed a goal every 3rd entry. Bounces and silly frees aside and notwithstanding our own poor conversion it was where the game was lost. You'd think the game would have been looked at closely.

[P-man 13,366]

Release the pigdog.

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

The interchange is interesting - who is the sub? Salem isn't going to get any fitter playing part-games, but JKH, Riley, Matt J - I don't want to see any of them in a green jacket.

[Maldonboy38 6,403]

I am a little unsure of Gawn in for Frawley - they are two very different footballers, so it means a shuffle of someone else somewhere. It's not that we have great team balance that shouldn't be played with, it is just that it does change the dynamics across the 22 a fair but. Interesting to see how it works through.

Riley in for Byrnes just means we have another in-and-under option rather then a small crumbing forward, and Byrnes crumbing forward play wasn't high class over the past few weeks. I like this because we now have Jones, Cross, Tyson, Viney and Riley who have a heap of grunt and body size. I am anticipating a very physical game from the Dees.

I hope they don't move Dunn - he has been strong and reliable down back and is too much a a central cog to our defense in general, but specifically he is vital in bringing it out of the back 50.

Pederson now becomes very important, and will probably play all over the ground at times. It feels like he should go back, but with Dunn, Garland and T McDonald holding down roles, Pederson will rotate forward and back of the bench.

In my tipping I went with the Tiges by a tiny margin, but that was before the final teams being in. With Gawn and Riley in I don't have any clear gut feeling of how the game might go. Really looking forward to it.

[CityDee 738]

Gawn or PigDogg as sub?

[Little Richard 6,262]

Gawn or PigDogg as sub?

Probably Salem again.

I actually think Gawn will offer more up forward than Frawley has for the last couple of weeks, plus it frees up Pedo to play up forward or down back all day. As well as that, Jamar will have more of a chop out than he would have with Pedersen as back up.

[Deecisive 1,709]

I would like to see Gawn and Jamar swapping between on ball and full forward to rest, so that they do not rotate off the ground too often that will force the tigers to keep a real tall down back on them and allow our running players more interchanges. Need to have some grunt crumbing to gawn, Dawes and Jamar, players who can put forward pressure on the tigers back men. that should give us a few more opportunities as crumbing a few goals. looking forward to Salem, Riley kicking goals and possibly some tiger butt.