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A key factor in us making finals and getting to a prelim last year. No coincidence that our season took off when he returned about Rnd 15. Hard as a cats head, big bodied, hits hard and has football smarts / poise to go with it. Clever decision maker who seems to get when to play fast or otherwise. Decent overhead and knows where the sticks are. As a HHF roaming through the middle and occasionaly drifting deep forward, a coaches dream with a hard edge and work rate. You want a bit of extra pressure on the opp up forward or through the middle...he's your man. Pitty about the bloody injuries. Sorely missed this season.

I watched the last round of 2018 V GWS. (In an attempt to lift my spirits!)How we have missed AVD this whole season. What an essential player he was. I do hope that if he can get himself fully fit he will not be delisted. Give him one more chance MFC. Watching borderline players now I realised that some could still play footy. Kennedy Harris was lively and more than a useful player. Oscar played well as he did in the finals, Neal Bullen too played well. What has happened this season? Jetta has been not the Neville we know, Hibberd looked so much fitter and faster than he is this season and Brayshaw was outstanding. Max, of course is the true champion he is. At one stage he chased a GWS player with pace for a good fifty metres even though the result was in our hands. Comments ?

I am lucky to have a close contact with access to a lot of AFL statistics (the same data set the clubs generally have available to them ). I asked him to do some digging on the Dees' season, in particular looking for anything that would prove useful in helping us all understand where things have gone wrong this year. In no particular order, this is what he found: There's been a lot of discussion about injuries, and lately, Richmond and Collingwood fans complaining they have it the worst of all. The data says we have averaged 6.5 'best 22' players missing over the first 19 rounds of the season; in total we have missed 117 'best 22' games. Richmond have averaged 5.11 (92 total), while Collingwood have averaged 3.94 (71 total). This highlights Richmond's depth as stronger than both Melbourne or Collingwood - they've got guys like Caddy running around in the VFL while we have...JKH/Dunkley/Lockhart and Coll have Daicos/Brown etc. Looking at the round by round breakdown of this - you can see that this number (# of best 22 injured) correlates strongly with form. Richmond's injuries have improved markedly since the bye and their form has peaked. Collingwood's have been unlucky with injury since the bye and they have been ordinary. Of course we've been ordinary for the whole year... When you break this down by position it confirms what we know - our midfield has stayed pretty much full strength all year, but the forward and backline have had either 3.77 best 22 players missing on average (fwd line) or 2.6 best 22 players missing on average (backline). The impact on both ends of the grounds shouldn't be underestimated and suits the narrative of our year - unable to score, unable to defend inside 50s, but still ok at generating our own (pre-game plan change in the last couple of weeks). Goodwin keeps trotting out that we've had no continuity at either end of the ground - and he's right. I've attached these two breakdowns to this post. Don't pay much attention to sirswampthing's post highlighting that Collingwood have the most 'games played' on the injuries list. Break that out and 750 of those games are from players outside the best 22 / retiring (e.g Wells, Beams, Goldsack etc.). Misleading and clickbait for the biggest supporter base. Out of players who have played at least 10 games, Frost and OMac are the two who have cost us the most scores as a % of their turnovers. Frost is ranked 12th in the league (1st = a really bad thing), conceding a score 34% of the time he turns it over, resulting in 17 shots at goal (9 goals 8 ) directly from his turnovers. Omac is ranked 15th in the league, conceding a score 33% of the time. Bailey Fritsch has cost us the most amount of points from turnovers this year. His 66 turnovers for the year (ranked equal 94th in the league) have cost us 89 points directly, which is ranked 4th in the comp. We all love his skills; but his turnovers hurt us. We're better with him camped inside 50 and our increased efficiency over the last 3 weeks is in no small part due to having a natural forward like him back in the 50. In order of worst to best, the top 8 players who have hurt us the most and have resulted in an overall negative score from turnovers and intercepts combined are: Fristch, Omac, Frost, Hibberd, Hore, Brayshaw, Salem, J Wagner. Other than Fritsch and Brayshaw this isnt surprising; our defenders can't kick. Salem has had more ball than any of these guys but is 7th on the list; so he is the best kick we have in the D50 (other than Jones when he plays there). Conversely, the players who have generated the most scores from intercepts, while keeping their turnovers to a minimum, and to have played at least 10 games, are: Jones, Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, Viney (Surprising!), Lockhart, Hunt, Tmac, Harmes. James Harmes is the only player at the Dees ranked in the top 50 (49th) for average handball receives per game, which is an indicator of outside run. For context, Richmond have 6 players in the top 50; Collingwood have 8. Petracca is mostly accurate everywhere: he is 10.8 from set shots, 5.1 on the run, 4.3 from snaps, 1.0 from mark play on, 1.0 off the ground. 5.0 from <15m, 4.4 from 15-30m, 2.2 from 31-40m, 7.4 from 41-50m, 3.2 from 50m+. He's above AFL average in all these categories, with exception of 15-30m and 31-40m kicking, which is bang on AFL average. Harmes is not accurate from anywhere. He has 3.3 from <15m, an awful 2.6 from 31-40m and 4.8 from 41-50m. Against Richmond, 14 players had less than one tackle. This was widely discussed. However, it wasn't from lack of effort. We had more tackle attempts than Richmond, but went at 25% efficiency. Poor technique, not strong enough, lazy, mentally checked out, who knows. The loss of Hogan on Tom Mac and Wiedeman should not be understated. Last year, Weideman played 3 good games - vs. West Coast in Rd 22, then Geelong in the EF and Hawks in the SF. His opponents in those games based on most % of gametime were: Brad Sheppard (HBFer, not a KPD), Lachie Henderson and David Mirra. This year, Weideman has had 3 games of 'good' output, 2 pass marks and 6 poor matches. The 3 good games he played on: Jacob Weitering, Aaron Francis, Jack Watts. Decent names but not A grade defenders by any means. The pass mark games, he played on Darcy Moore and Tom Mccartin. The poor games, he played on Harris Andrews, Griffin Logue/Joel Hamling, Alex Keath, David Astbury, Nathan Brown/Josh Battle, Mark Blicavs. Basically, when he played on good or experienced opponents, he's not much chop. Now lets look at who Tom Mac towelled up last year on his way to 50 goals: Patrick Ambrose, Jack Carlisle, Rory Thompson, Sam Rowe, Myles Poholke, Jason Johannisen, Matt Scharenberg, Dougal Howard, Jackson Trengove, Josh Jenkins, Tom Barrass, Lachlan Keefe, James Frawley. This is a who's who of average defenders/mismatches save for Barrass and Frawley (dont ask about Jenkins; perhaps Tom went back that day? I can't remember). This year Tom Mac has had to play on Tom Jonas, Mark Blicavs, Phil Davis, Daniel Talia and so on. The only defender he towelled up was Liam Jones. His best games were against Jones, Oscar Allen, Aliir Aliir. This info is available to the coaching staff. If they haven't looked at this and realised that our two KPF hopes are not capable of playing on top line defenders and that we need a key fwd to take the heat off these guys, then you have to wonder what they are doing. Oscar Mcdonald has only had one 'good' performance this year - against Nick Blakey. He has been beaten by: Josh Jenkins, Shaun McKernan, Tom Papley (mismatch), Paddy Ryder and Josh Corbett. Frost has beaten: Tom Lynch (Rich, early on), Levi Casboult, Josh Bruce, Jarryd Roughead, and Jack Lukosius. Has been beaten by: Lance Franklin, Jeremy Cameron, Jack Darling, Jack Riewoldt, Eric Hipwood. Angus Brayshaw played 90% of his time on ground last year in the midfield. This year, that is down to 60%. He has spent 24% of his time on the wing, 16% in the forward line. Of our top 5 centre bounce attendees, Brayshaw was also our most effective centre square player we had last year across a number of measures: Clearance differential (19.4, ahead of next best Harmes 11.2), Inside 50 differential (18.8, ahead of next best Oliver/Viney both 12.5) and scoring differential (8.1, ahead of next best 6.7 Viney). Brayshaw was involved in 345 centre square clearances last year. This year he is down to 215. Forgetting the top 5 attendees for a moment, our best centre bounce player by a huge margin is....Jake Melksham. His clearance differential is 31.4, next best is Petracca (16.7), then Jones, and then to Brayshaw and the rest of the regular crew. Of course, Melkham's data is perhaps limited by sample size. Melksham ranks 17th in our side for actual centre bounce attendances, whilst Petracca ranks 10th. The two are our most effective centre bounce players. Brayshaw is one of our best; but he is being played out of position. There are of course weaknesses in all of these statistics - they never tell the full story, there are subjective categorisations applied to 'good/pass mark/bad' and 'best 22' - but I found some of the above quite interesting. For me, what stands out is that the FD thought Tom Mac & Weid were ready to replace Hogan's output, but the warning signs were there if they were to look at the data. We miss his ability to draw the best defender, his presence all around the ground, and his general offensive skillset. No use crying about it now; but given this data is available to the club I find it disappointing they sat on their hands and thought the forward line was sorted even with his departure. Discuss!

In the Pre season game vs Collingwood he was without doubt the loudest player and one doing all the talking, Plenty went wrong in 2019 for the club but a healthy AVB could have changed a few results.

From the respective teams fielded last week: Average Attributes Collingwood Attribute Melbourne 187.7cm Height 188.1cm 87.5kg Weight 88.0kg 26yr 9mth Age 24yr 8mth 119.2 Games 89.9 Total Players By Games Collingwood Games Melbourne 5 Less than 50 7 4 50 to 99 9 6 100 to 149 3 7 150 or more 3 https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9889 Collingwood v Gold Coast https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9887 Melbourne v Richmond Replace Lewis with Hannan in our line-up - a legitimate and preferred outcome - and our age profile drops to 24y 2m and the games to 75. For some these facts are reasons, while for others they are excuses

Of course it is a factor. Fair dinkum what is so hard for some to understand that if a player does not build his fitness base preseason he won't ever get to full fitness before season's end? A fact that i'll bet London to a brick that burgess is at pains to point out when he takes over. Apply this maxim to a third of the playing group and you have a recipie for a team that can't run out games and is exposed at the end of quarters, second halves and most of all in the last quarter. All season. You know, like occurs with us. Or rather than ignoring a well known fact (the season long impact of interrupred preseasons) perhaps you are in the camp that our evident lack of fitness is misson's fault? The camp that sees symptoms (eg lack of fitness) but gets the cause wrong for all manner of issues (eg problem scoring) The pies had a stellar preseason and so fitness is less an issue for them. And so they will run out tbe game better tban us. Go figure

He may not have succeeded as Senior Coach but he has an impressive CV as an Assistant, who is highly thought of by by past clubs and players.

I can’t see this one being true, I’m pretty sure he’ll die if he walks outside of the goal square at Adelaide Oval.

He’ll go to a Melbourne based club alright. But it will be the type that opens at night and plays loud music.

John McEnroe summed it up best ...

I'm still extremely bullish about 2020 and here is why. 1. our ladder position provides us with the opportunity to significantly improve our list. if we can add Langdon, Hill or ideally both, and somehow retain a later first round pick and only give up draft picks, i think our side already looks better and more balanced. 2. Our ladder position also provides us with what should be a significantly better draw than we had this year. 3. Our list is still quite young, another full pre season and some continuity and playing together should help team chemistry further develop. 4. the football department review should cause some new voices in the football program which has lead to some very positive results at other teams. 5. we have a good list, if we can get the game plan right, have a good run with injuries and secure an easier draw i think we put ourselves in a position to quickly build confidence and have a serious crack at top 4 in 2020.

The question is pretty obvious and I'm sure I'm not the only one who has this thought creeping around in the back of my mind. What would it take to push the Demons back into the top ranks in 2020? I'm trying to think of specific things which can be identified and realistically hoped for, things that might each be worth one extra goal for or one less goal against, per game. I'll knock off some of the obvious ones but I'm keen to hear what specific other things people think could be added to create the rebound. 1. Lever & May get full pre-seasons and play a stable year together as our main talls in defence. 2. Tom McDonald regains form. 3. Burgess successfully implements a fitness program that has us running out final quarters at least on break-even terms with our opponents. 4. Melksham, Fritsch and Petracca get organised into a consistently effective half-forward group. 5. Our core midfielders work out better spacing, shepherding, and other 'fundamentals' at stoppages which allows for smarter, calmer ball movement. Damn that's a lot of obvious things to start with!

McDonald - DeGoey (best forward) Cox - Weideman Jetta - Langdon (back pocket) Beams/Sier (can’t play both) - Vanders Stevenson - Hannan Aish - Stretch or Joel Smith or Garlett or Spargo Moore - ? Lever Wells -KK - both theoretical afl players at this stage Not quite an equal comparison but not too far off if Lever doesn’t play. But I take issue with the idea that we are meant to be able to perform to the same level as a Collingwood side that: 1) was better than us last year and 2) has had a decent run for most of this year until recently. Our backline hasn’t had a chance to gel. When Moore and Howe both came out for the Pies they fell apart. Our inside mids have been short on fitness all year. It can’t just change. The Pies without Adams and Beams/Sier were shown up, but Pendles, Treloar and Sidebottom have been mostly healthy. Our outside mids have been a mess, how do fix it without talent? Our forward line has also been a mess. Part of that was coaching, but mostly talent. I’d like to see Fritsch, Melksham and Petracca do something against an undermanned Collingwood but without a tall to work around it might be hard. Look at the guys we are bringing in - Baker who didn’t do a preseason, JKh who missed 10 weeks, Dunkley signed mid year, Lockhart from Casey preseason. Hore who had ankle surgery In summer and recently broke his collar bone. Petty as a key forward. Lewis as a forward. The missing players might be in the Pies favour but the journey to where both teams are at isn’t.

Nobody knows what the future holds for Harley and what a move to Melbourne could do for him. Over the years, demonland has always held this weird ultra conservative view to these types of trades, yet is more than happy to give several years of 'development' to players with a toe-nail of the skill that someone like Harley has. People are still waiting for Oscar to become an AA as an example. Vanders has spent half a decade injured on our list. And let's not revisit some of the high draft picks we've had but wasted over the years. Give the bloke a one-year contract on minimum bones. What's the worst that could happen? A failed year for an individual? We're second last on the fooking ladder with a list brimming with the same weaknesses. Here's a way of addressing that and could cost nothing. The upside is enormous. Posters need to think about Hawthorn. Dew in 2008? Imagine the meltdown here if we picked up a 110 kg elephant? He won them the Grand Final. Burgoyne? Scully? O'Meara? It's time for us to do something un-Melbourne-like.

He’s already been let go by Fremantle, played four games in two years, is mates with bikies and recently been in an altercation with other bikies. What’s not to like?

At worst we can expect this.

Our club is so safe when it comes to these things, no risk, no reward. I completely understand the reluctance from many on HB, lets be honest he is has been a disaster since he left the Suns. But i look at this way, if you are prepared to trade first round picks for talent into the club then why not offer a prodigious talent like HB a rookie spot. Back our new man Burgess into get him up and running, get Nev Jetta, one of the AFLs most respected players to mentor and guide him, get him to enjoy his footy. Steven May would know him i assume pretty well, , get him involved. At some point the club has to take a risk and look outside the square, we did it with last with Liam Jurrah, ultimately it didnt work in the end but we gave it a go and we all still smile about Liam and his involvement at the club.

Gee, they have really improved St Kilda beach.

Cameron Ling of all folk induced a mini-insight this week. He was banging on about how we would have no excuses next year regarding a later start to the pre-season, tsk tsk. Richmong recently backed a flag up with a prelim appearance you see. No mention of the Tiger's three elimination finals and bottoming out for a year leading up to that though. And definitely no mention of the Cats reaching a prelim and semi before dropping out of finals for a year prior to their 2007 premiership - teams which Ling was a member of. We certainly had an interrupted preseason with a huge number of surgeries, aggravated by the later start and then a massive knock in confidence once 2019 was underway. Most of our midfield didn't train together until well after Xmas, and the injuries to our offensive and defensive lines have been coming consistently ever since. Yet, three months later with no sign of improvement and that nagging feeling starts to creep in - why can other teams seemingly manage with injuries and back up in the finals year after year with later pre-season starts? The insight is this: while a few on here acknowledge the above injuries and late start as a significant factor in our horrible slide this year (with many of those losing patience over recent weeks), little has been said of the combination of those factors with the age/inexperience of our list. Only one member on our team has ever had to back up from finals - an elimination final at that. Meanwhile (without running the numbers), most of those going in for post-season surgery were likely under 24, possibly experiencing their first major clean-ups. I'm not an elite sportsperson - and I definitely wasn't one in my early twenties. I have no idea what it's like returning as a young footballer from dual shoulder surgery (taking Oliver as an example) and the trying to develop confidence in those limbs/body parts again in a limited time-frame knowing I'm coming up against ruthless competitors. Forget the age spread, the primary drivers of our team are kids; they're experiencing something entirely new this season, and I'll be backing them in to learn something valuable from this year.

That’s tongue in cheek right?

Head chocolatier?

Stop coaching the instinct out of certain players in the forward half. See goals, take a shot, don’t try and run it over the line.

Review losses like 2018 Preliminary final, go on training camps, don’t pay overs during trade periods, stop playing hacks.

First post so please be kind. Like all of you, long time suffering and frustrated Demons supporter. I think a lot of people including the playing list think it will just happen as this year was a result of injuries, preseason etc. To some extent I agree it severely limited our ability to win. However it will not be so easy and I expect barring some miracle that we will only have a modest improvement next year - thinking something like a 2017 year. Our problems this year have been primarily related to ball movement and skill by foot. Last year we were much quicker, decisive and accurate in disposal than we are atm. We probably wont get Langon and or Hill as we there are many more cashed up clubs and hence our Hope's lie with the draft and they will take time to develop. 2021 is probably our next genuine tilt at finals if all goes right.

Forget what he brings with his superb tackling and grunt - even if it comes with some shoddy kicking and decision making - he's proven capable of playing on the wing when so many others on the list can't and he's been part of a run of terrible injuries at that position. Vanders - out for the year with the foot Fritsch - needed to play back and now forward KK - missed pretty much all year with groin/concussion/concussion Stretch - foot JKH - misses the first 10 weeks with a knee Even young Nietschke who might've been an option did an ACL The best thing to see before this year was Fritsch and KK nailing inside 50 kicks on the wings in match simulation and knowing Vanders could provide that big body to rotate on the wing, forward and on ball. None of that's come true.

He was huge in the closing rounds of 2018 and the finals. Tough, aggressive and literally hurt the opposition. We have missed him this year. In fact, AVB and Hannan were playing different, but equally important roles in our forward half last year. When those two were fit, we played our best football. 100% keep and cross our collective fingers that his ankle can hold.

In addition Collingwood are consistently fielding a team 2 years older and 30 games more mature than us, despite the fact that we have Lewis and Jones by far our oldest and most experienced players pumping up our numbers. As noted above we're consistently fielding young inexperienced teams.

IF we are going after Richo and land him can we at least put him in the coaches box vs the Saints to improve our chances of winning

Without a shadow of a doubt missed his grunt around stoppages and inside F50. Hope Burgess can piece him all together again. Important player when fit. Fingers crossed for the human wrecking bull.

when he plays, he's one of our most important players because he connects the midfield with the forwards i desperately want to see him fit throughout a whole season

This bloke?

35 games in 5 years.. 7 games in the last three years I hope the medical staff are doing a very thorough assessment and not just "hoping for the best." He'll be 28 at the start of next season. Rose coloured glasses spring to mind.

Anyone that has managed to pull off a 27 possession, 11 mark, 6 goal game is of interest to me.

Love AvB's tenacity. Recent reports he's been running now for 6 weeks and the plan is to have him ready for preseason, which is pleasing. He's got 2 more years on his contract so unless there's sone kind of break clause due to reinjury i imagine he'll be on our list next year.

"Never plays, causes trouble". Hum along you know the tune.

That analysis looks compelling on the surface but I'm not sure it's as rigorous as it might be. I looked back at the 4 key games at the end of last year when Tom and Sam played key forward roles and I've highlighted the opponents not identified above: R22 vs West Coast: Opposition key defenders playing: Barrass, McGovern, Sheppard Barrass and Sheppard are the nominated opponents above but this seems to ignore the impact of the league's best aerial defender McGovern who played 85% gametime R23 vs GWS: Opposition key defenders playing: Davis, Keefe, Haynes TMac kicked 3 apparently on Lachlan Keefe. Who was Phil Davis (who later on in the analysis is rightly rated as a premier defender) playing on for 91% gametime then? Sam had 17 disposals 6 marks (including 2 contested) and kicked a goal. EF vs Geelong: Opposition key defenders playing: Blicavs, Henderson, Taylor Apparently Henderson was on Sam. Who were Blicavs (also rated later on as a premier defender) and Taylor on? They don't seem to rate a mention. Tom took 7 marks and kicked 3 goals. SF vs Hawthorn: Opposition key defenders playing: Frawley, Sicily, Mirra? Tom took 10 marks and kicked 4 apparently on Frawley. Apparently Mirra at 186cm was on Weid, what was Sicily up to? There's just too many questions there for me to take that analysis as definitive.

Hell of a lot of guesswork going on there.

There would be quite a rush in burning memberships, doubt that you would be first.

Wholeheartedly agree. Been so frustrated this year when our forwards/mids get into the clear in the F50 and end up passing to someone under pressure or in a worse position. So many times I've yelled out 'have a ping FFS'!

Why would you back your club into getting the best out of a prodigious talent like Bennell when you could keep that list spot open for a Josh Wagner or an Oscar McDonald???

Well, I guess it makes sense. We are in need of a small forward.

Hoping the people i'm speaking to are wrong, but i'm hearing the Saints and Hawks are ahead of us in the race for Hill. we are having to be pretty creative Salary cap wise to come up with a financial offer to get him and Langdon and it's looking like the club is prioirtising Langdon over Hill. and the Saints and Hawks have some money to splash.

No thanks.

'Webber' is a physio mate, I trust his view on these issues. He gives good insights as he has in this case. I know we're all p....off with this season and the club but you're off the mark here.

The above would go along way. The other would be to reestablish our hard, ruthless edge that we had last year in the run up to the bye and then from late in the season v Westcoast to the Semi v Hawthorn.

Trade Viney. Ffs. The world has gone mad.

Sorry as much as this might make some kind of sense on a clinical purely logical list management perspective, it would absolutely rip the heart and soul out of the MFC culturally if it wasn't a move 100% instigated by Jack and even then I think it would still reek. It's quite different trading a party boy No.1 draft pick types in Jack Watts and Jesse Hogan who gave the impression of only being 60% committed at times, compared to your club captain, favorite father son who runs through brick walls bleeds red and blue for the club.

A miracle!

Good read, and damn I wish I could spent a few days tucked in a cave with nothing but the premium data to distract me. Just want to note that there's a bit of a question mark on saying that Richmond's depth is stronger than ours, based on how well they covered the players missing from their best 22 . Depth players and players on the fringe have been the really disproportionate part of our injury list (as opposed to our best 22 which has experienced merely the most serious depletion in the league). Even right now, Richmond are missing 2 maybe 3 from what might be considered their best 22 for statistical markers (Rance, Cotchin, Higgins), but then only three other players. In contrast, Melbourne are missing May, McDonald, and Weideman from what might be the 22 as assessed at the start of this season, based on 2019. But in addition to that we are missing Smith, Vandernberg, Garlett, Kolodjashnij, Hannan, Spargo and four others. And that 3+10 is as short as our injury list has been all season. Picking a random ealier round, round 10, Richmond were pretty much at their peak of injures with ten while we were limping around with seventeen. Again, the actual number of 'best 22' missing was much closer. It would be fair to say our depth hasn't been 'tested' so much as mutiliated this season. Spinal fluid biopsy might be accurate.