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The Premiership Window Closing?


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Best list we have seen for decades, multiple A grade players.

2022 should've been a premiership, given the mega start we had.

2023 was unforgivable for throwing away the flag. Injuries to Petty and Melk are weak excuses.

Maysie was spot on, we missed a golden chance.

Goody, Taylor and Lamb developed a super list that worked well in the 2021 hub, but couldn't perform or behave in the real AFL environment. Four home final losses in a row despite i50 domination, there are problems beyond a couple of injuries.

IMO if we don't get our [censored] together on 2024, it's a long time until we will be able to compete again.

Can you imagine how it might look if we slip to bottom 8, with no home base, a bunch of aging stars, a coach under the pump for performance on and off field, and the AFLs attention returning to their darling big 4???

We got comfortable believing the hype that the Club has returned to the powerhouse we were 60 years ago

Fortunes can change very quickly

Edited by Stiff Arm
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19 minutes ago, Macca said:

The board is an easy target as many are going to believe the bs that gets thrown about.  Throw enough mud, it sticks

We're doing alright at board level and as for that bloke sprouting his stuff about fair elections, he's just a pest

If we had all positions up for grabs every off-season, we'd be down the gurgler in no time

Most sporting clubs are structured at board level the same way.  Stability & continuity is vital so there has to be an element of trust

Open slather and it's a mess.  I've seen that happen too many times at local level as I'm sure you have

Mind you, I had a completely different view in 2013 

I think this is something for another place & time.

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16 minutes ago, rjay said:

Two things that consistently occur on this forum.

2. The coach is underrated - he's a very good coach. When we won the flag it was the assistants that got us there, Yze, Williams etc...when we lose finals it's all Goodwin, he can't coach, to set in his ways, no plan B. Goodwin can coach, he's proven it.

Excellent list, top level coaching, A1 Recruiting, good admin = good board (9 times out of 10)

Poor list, poor coaching, terrible recruiting, below average admin = board not up to it

It's quite straightforward rjay as I see it

Ultimately, the board is responsible for most major appointments so if they get the right people in, it will reflect on them (the board)

Appoint the wrong people and look where it ends up

So if we're going to castigate the board when things are going bad, equally, we need to give credit where credit is due

 

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2 minutes ago, rjay said:

I think this is something for another place & time.

Well, that time was now rjay, see above haha

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8 minutes ago, Stiff Arm said:

Best list we have seen for decades, multiple A grade players.

2022 should've been a premiership, given the mega start we had.

2023 was unforgivable for throwing away the flag. Injuries to Petty and Melk are weak excuses.

 

Like all top clubs, good lists with multiple A graders...we don't play in a vacuum, it's a tough comp & you need your share of luck.

Injuries to Petty, BBB, Tommy Mac & Melk...Fritsch not at 100% & JVR rubbed out for our last final.

I think that's a little more than weak excuses.

...but please yourself.

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We were an Angus Brayshaw away from a flag imo.

If he didn’t get KO’d, then Laurie wouldn’t have played nearly 4 quarters (plus Gus is way better for our structures than BL).

Wed have rolled the Giants, and I dare say the Lions vs Pies PF would’ve been an epic, with either team absolutely out on their feet the week after. 

Thanks again Maynard.

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5 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

We were an Angus Brayshaw away from a flag imo.

If he didn’t get KO’d, then Laurie wouldn’t have played nearly 4 quarters (plus Gus is way better for our structures than BL).

Wed have rolled the Giants, and I dare say the Lions vs Pies PF would’ve been an epic, with either team absolutely out on their feet the week after. 

Thanks again Maynard.

Yes, on top of the injuries that just capped it off for us. I forgot to mention this...

The flow on effect of that incident meant we couldn't use Trac as much forward as we needed to.

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18 minutes ago, rjay said:

Like all top clubs, good lists with multiple A graders...we don't play in a vacuum, it's a tough comp & you need your share of luck.

Injuries to Petty, BBB, Tommy Mac & Melk...Fritsch not at 100% & JVR rubbed out for our last final.

I think that's a little more than weak excuses.

...but please yourself.

No, it doesn't please me. But excuses clearly please you

Chose Tmac over Schache and Grundy in the last final, poor coaching. 

We've dominated i50s and long bombed for the last four years without decent conversion, poor coaching

A midfield whose kicking couldn't hit the ocean from the beach

MFC won't be a top club for long. Max, Maysie, BBB, Tmac, Melk approaching retirement. Hibb retired. Petty a strong chance to return to SA. Oliver's future in limbo

Without another flag soon we will struggle to keep relevant 

2024 is a must win season

Edited by Stiff Arm
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31 minutes ago, rjay said:

Like all top clubs, good lists with multiple A graders...we don't play in a vacuum, it's a tough comp & you need your share of luck.

Injuries to Petty, BBB, Tommy Mac & Melk...Fritsch not at 100% & JVR rubbed out for our last final.

I think that's a little more than weak excuses.

...but please yourself.

Exactly

The replacement forward line stood up manfully and tried their utmost

But if our forward line looked like this do we lose either of the finals?

HF Petracca*/Kozzie**  Petty    Fritsch

F    Melksham    JVR/Brown   Chandler

*Petracca not able to play forward due to the loss of Brayshaw

**Kozzie not able to have stints on the ball as he was needed in the forward line

Dark italics - not available

So not only did we not have key personnel up forward but we lost all balance and flexibility (up forward)

Despite all that we went down narrowly in both finals

The above forward line would have helped us win the '23 flag, without such a forward line we had very little chance (of winning 3 finals)

 

Edited by Macca
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I really believe that we're set up well for the next 5 or 6 years

So we're not falling off the perch if we don't win this years flag

First of all, you have to get into contention, then, on the law of averages, you can't expect to win every time you're in contention

So we've been in contention 3 times now unless we want to count 2018 as well

I'll take 1 in 3 any day of the week as there are usually 4 or 5 teams that can win it most seasons

And I don't believe in a cut-off 5 year window either although the 5 year plan makes sense (the 5 year plan that keeps getting revamped)

So 6 more years of contending can deliver us 2 more flags (if we're being realistic)

I'll take that in a heartbeat as for a long time I couldn't see us winning 1 flag anytime soon

And we're going to need a good dose of luck as well (you always do in order to win big e.g. 2021 we had a virtual injury free season)

The Cats won it all in 2011 and were then in contention at least 8 times in the next 11 years until they won again.  And for the most part, they had very good teams and good coaching all the way through

Flags are hard to win

And if you get a run of injuries to key personnel at the wrong time of the year, your hopes can be dashed

So you go again and look ahead

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Things are never as good as they seem and (despite what many on Demonland will portray) things are never as bad as they seem.

It doesn’t take much to impact your chances coming in to finals as we’ve seen in 23 and sometimes taking a step back or injury to a key player nets you a piece or two in the jigsaw or exposes a player to greater responsibility which after a while creates what came only a few seasons ago 

 

That is why it’s a fascinating game

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Training down.the house....or just burning it ??

Too early to tell ( clearly ) but we're not really off to a wonderful start.  

If we don't adapt we're doomed. Simple as that really... 

Window closing ?? Might be

Our list is only as good as the game plan allows them.  There's a few blokes out there not getting any younger...

I wish us luck, we'll need it....

Can't help but wonder 🤔🤔🤔

a4eca95f35ce6c095a66ded09fa09d0a_w200.gif

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I no longer believe in premiership windows opening and closing. Obviously there are instances where a club is a long way off a premiership, such as North and the Eagles, however most other teams can put themselves into the window with some savvy trading and quality drafting.

With the introduction of free agency and the power the players now have, it is the easiest it has been since the introduction of the structured trading and draft system to top up with quality talent. The key area that list managers are earning their keep now is managing the salary cap, which if done well can prolong a side's window for many years.

Realistically the two players from our best 22 in their twilight are May and Gawn, who I think both have 2 years of high quality footy left but may slow down after that. Therefore, our biggest need over the next two years is to either develop or trade in a quality ruckman and a quality full back. I'm sure the club have Dan Turner, Jed Adams, Will Verrall and Kyah Farris-White as potential options depending on development, however if we get to the end of 2025 and they haven't come on then we may pivot and go hunting ready to go players.

I think the time when our window will absolutely be shut is when Petracca, Salem, Viney, Lever etc all hit around 32/33. I'll back Tim Lamb and Co to plan well for that though, as their track record is outstanding but I would expect we will start to miss finals around then and will need a mini rebuild. If managed well we hopefully never hit the rock bottom times like we did in 2008-2012 though....

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12 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Thankyou. I truly don’t think Demon Supporters en masse are angry enough about the last 2 years. We certainly should be

SWYL 

You are clearly not reading the tea leaves.

We all acknowledge our FOUR Finals losses ( Straight sets) in a row.

It is fact but as you should read more D/L ers have analysed snd came to the conclusion that injury and bad luck plus horrible forward connection and inaccuracy over those games has cruelled us. 

Whst are we doing about it? 

Well we have recruited specifically to remedy this forward line weakness via trade and draft selections plus retain our best forwards and hit that our oldest pair may have one last injury free year to turn the clock back. 

We now await the pre season start of 2024 and the proof in the pudding is serious from today at Casey to the last Dat in September! 

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12 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Thankyou. I truly don’t think Demon Supporters en masse are angry enough about the last 2 years. We certainly should be

Strangely I wasn't angry in 22.

I think I was still satisfied with  the 21 flag.

Maybe the team was as well.

Maybe after fifty odd years we were satiated.

Last year was different

We were crushed by injuries all the time.

I was miffed by several selections and angry after dropping two again.

There were a couple of posters here who messaged me and pointed out how close we came but our injuries ultimately cost is.

I listened to reason. We gave it all with who we had.

I feel very positive about this year.

You need a lot to go right to win a flag.

We are not a huge club supporter wise and don't get much love from the AFL.

That aside we will definitely be in the mix again.

Hang in there Swyl.

 

 

Edited by leave it to deever
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Why does the “premiership window”have to close after a certain number of years? Why does it have to close at all? With smart recruiting, list management, coaching etc. it should be possible to remain in contention - ie. in the premiership window - for longer than the five or so years that seems to be the expectation currently. 

Edited by WalkingCivilWar
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1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

Strangely I wasn't angry in 22.

I think I was still satisfied with  the 21 flag.

Maybe the team was as well.

Maybe after fifty odd years we were satiated.

Last year was different

We were crushed by injuries all the time.

I was miffed by several selections and angry after dropping two again.

There were a couple of posters here who messaged me and pointed out how close we came but our injuries ultimately cost is.

I listened to reason. We gave it all with who we had.

I feel very positive about this year.

You need a lot to go right to win a flag.

We are not a huge club supporter wise and don't get much love from the AFL.

That aside we will definitely be in the mix again.

Hang in there Swyl.

 

 

Deever

Part of your post “ we are not a big  Club supporter wise” .

This annoys me as we are FIFTH largest in figures last season HOME Attendances

And in 2024 we were in the TOP8 in membership in AFL. 

So the longer you wish to wrongly paint the picture of 2012/13 of poor rundown little Melbourne and perpetuate this myth that we don’t get help because we are small and insignificant you put our Club backwards. 

Just the same as  unwanted and unnecessary  criticism of Casey hurts the Club especially the recent upgrades in facilities and ground etc. 

The photo of the guys turning up at Casey going into our facility today was impressive and showed th at our efforts are well worth the time and liaison with the City over the decade. GP is fine as a training venue also updated but Casey has the lot but needs to be travelled to to be enjoyed and utilised. 

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This year is our last year for a premiership. Unfortunately there are some sour tasting grapes like Smith Clarry and Pettys foot.

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12 minutes ago, dl4e said:

This year is our last year for a premiership. Unfortunately there are some sour tasting grapes like Smith Clarry and Pettys foot.

What are we packing up and selling the farm at end if 2024 ? And how are the grapes going to be? You are only guessing to back your last year comments up. 

Sounds like we need a good vintage this year or else.  As an ardent observer of the VFL team you must not have any faith in the best of Casey youngsters helping the VFL team continue its Top4 placings. 

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35 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Why does the “premiership window”have to close after a certain number of years? Why does it have to close at all? With smart recruiting, list management, coaching etc. it should be possible to remain in contention - ie. in the premiership window - for longer than the five or so years that seems to be the expectation currently. 

The window doesn't have to close ever

It's just that if a certain amount of people say it enough times, it can become folklore (or another myth)

For instance ...

That the umpires are out to get us (they aren't, never were, never will be)

That the drafting numbering system is entirely accurate (it isn't) Busts happen and always will and no one can predict them.  Same rule for stars plucked out if the 2nd & 3rd round (sometimes the 4th & 5th round)

That a whole club can have 'culture' issues on the back of a couple of indiscretions by a couple of players

That a club drinks it's own bathwater if it isn't successful

Excuses used as reasons and reasons labelled as excuses (many don't know the difference)

Gossip that becomes folklore ... footy can be more of a soap opera as a result

That our training facilities are substandard - more rubbish as Casey is an excellent facility and sharing AAMI is no big deal.  Gosch's is a great surface too.  We are not at a disadvantage

The Junction oval was easily the best surface to train on as well (fact)

As previously stated, myths abound

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11 hours ago, Macca said:

Financially we're doing very well, the coaching is top-notch, a great playing list, 2 training venues that are way more than adequate (we won a flag out of Casey), a united board despite the bs that gets thrown about,  70,000 members, prime time TV slots left, right & centre

The media are constantly talking about us, instead of being virtually ignored like it was in the dark days

What's not to like?  

Watching us wet the bed against Collingwood and then watching us against Carlton play the most undisciplined game I've seen for along time. This list is as good as we're likely to see and one flag doesn't cut it. Injuries are an excuse and yes they were unfortunate. We were still a better side than the pies and we lost our nerve. There's an ever so slight soft underbelly to this team and other clubs know it and they exploit it. Watch Cox crash into Gawn and win the first 10 hitouts of the QF and help set up the win. Gawn remains our most important player and clubs will continue to hit him hard to unnerve us. It's why I think he's also our biggest weakness, we're simply too reliant on him. 

 

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Completely agree with everything Macca has written in this thread. Yes, we lost in the last two years. But people seem to forget that there are 17 other teams on the competition and some of them have pretty good lists too - in fact, most commentators see Brisbane as having the best list, and how many cups have they won with it? There is so much luck and fate involved - just ask Stephen Milne (for those who remember 2010).

 With a good stable board and good recruiting we can stay in contention for many years.  And i firmly believe that this is our year  (although very distressed by this mornings news that Clarry is not back!).

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21 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

 Injuries are an excuse and yes they were unfortunate

 

You're wrong 

Injuries aren't an excuse if they happen in one area of the list (in last years case, the forward line)

You can't replace too many quality forwards and replace them with mediocre forwards and then expect success

Sport doesn't work that way.  Getting close to winning both finals was more of an indication that we tried our guts out to cover for all those lost forwards

So instead of the team copping the wrath of the supporters, we should be proud of how close we got

The strange thing is that many here will use the umpiring as an excuse (on a constant basis)  Now that is a cop-out

Also, there are a lot of bad loser types here with a hair-trigger attitude

So brighten up, we'll be back better than ever

 

Edited by Macca
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