Operation Mihocek & Frampton

[spirit of norm smith 13,124]

4 hours ago, Demons11 said:

What a load of rubbish - Collingwood weren’t efficient and kicked terribly in front of goal 

Pendlebury and Sidebottom. Class. Efficient. Goalkicking under pressure.  That’s why they won. 

[Tarax Club 3,052]

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

Collingwood were actually very efficient given they had a lot o difficult shots at goal. 

If this is the future of an enjoyable day at the footy good luck. Just about need a pHD in graphical analysis to begin to make any sense of it. Where to begin? The y axis (vertical) is ... and the x axis (horizontal) is… Parabolic curves, independent,dependent and controlled variables and outliers. Lines of best fit, plot points... Think of all the homework required.

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Tarax Club
lies, dammed lies and statistics

[Dr. Gonzo 22,525]

We have enough quality up forward as long as they stay on the park.

Petty/JVR as key fwds

Fritsch/Petracca/Smith as midsize fwds (and likely McAdam)

Pickett/ANB/Spargo/Chandler as pressure fwds

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

We have enough quality up forward as long as they stay on the park.

Petty/JVR as key fwds

Fritsch/Petracca/Smith as midsize fwds (and likely McAdam)

Pickett/ANB/Spargo/Chandler as pressure fwds

 

Disagree.

We don't have enough finishing or class in that forward group.

Even Petracca for how amazing he is as a powerful mid/forward is simply awful with his ball use far too often for an elite player.

ANB, Spargo and Chandler similarly just don't give us that elite finishing ability. One more of those small forwards needs to be a specialist goal kicking pressure forward and not just a role playing forward.

Our list forward of centre is completely vanilla aside from Pickett.

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

8 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

They like most recent GF teams have had relatively good luck with injury to key players. When Daicos went late in season, it was no surprise they started loosing. Lets see how they back it up next year with a limited pre-season and slogging it out for a whole year with an aging list. I fully expect them to compete but they'll come back to the pack - not that they were miles in front anyway. 

They will get even more attention next year with every team coming up with and/or refining the blueprint to beat them. They will get a difficult draw. There will be no easy games for them next year (bar West Coast). 

Well, they made a prelim last year. So their pre-season this year will be limited by an extra week?

Backed it up this year, won the flag and were missing Adams and McStay.

Key players missed throughout the entire year in Howe, Adams, Moore, De Goey (Suspension), Daicos.

They've had an incredible year and have been the best team in it.

 

But remember guys! @binman and @Binmans PA believe their game simply can't stand up in finals

So the fact that they won the Grand Final means nothing, alright?

[dazzledavey36 48,953]

3 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Well, they made a prelim last year. So their pre-season this year will be limited by an extra week?

Backed it up this year, won the flag and were missing Adams and McStay.

Key players missed throughout the entire year in Howe, Adams, Moore, De Goey (Suspension), Daicos.

They've had an incredible year and have been the best team in it.

 

But remember guys! @binman and @Binmans PA believe their game simply can't stand up in finals

So the fact that they won the Grand Final means nothing, alright?

They weren't the only who said their game wouldn't stand up come finals. Could easily pick out a few more. They're quiet now..

How's their shrewed recruitment? Markov and Hill added for extra speed and skill that compliments their game plan.

Kudos to McRea, he's a fine operator. 

[old55 21,399]

13 hours ago, Tarax Club said:

If this is the future of an enjoyable day at the footy good luck. Just about need a pHD in graphical analysis to begin to make any sense of it. Where to begin? The y axis (vertical) is ... and the x axis (horizontal) is… Parabolic curves, independent,dependent and controlled variables and outliers. Lines of best fit, plot points... Think of all the homework required.

 

It's a very good graphical representation of the data. The x axis is time, the y axis is expected score and the dotted line is chance of winning.

One thing I saw immediately from the score charts was confirmation that Collingwood kicked 4 goals from set shots outside 50. That was a huge difference in this game.

Edited October 1, 2023 by old55
Corrected my mislabelling of the axes.

[Binmans PA 26,290]

4 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Well, they made a prelim last year. So their pre-season this year will be limited by an extra week?

Backed it up this year, won the flag and were missing Adams and McStay.

Key players missed throughout the entire year in Howe, Adams, Moore, De Goey (Suspension), Daicos.

They've had an incredible year and have been the best team in it.

 

But remember guys! @binman and @Binmans PA believe their game simply can't stand up in finals

So the fact that they won the Grand Final means nothing, alright?

They were the most consistent team for the year and had the least structural injuries when it mattered. 

The one week when they won territory, they were as inaccurate as we'd been in our two finals.

My view is we left a flag on the table this year, but clearly our injuries in the same zone of the ground caught up with us, and our inability to convert our territory dominance were the biggest reasons for this.

We'll make tweaks, list changes and be there again next year.

Given Collingwood actually won something this year, I expect this to solidfy the sort of ball movement all teams need. But the elephant in the room to the 'we need to be more offensive' group is that ultimately defence is again what won the finals.

Collingwood's explosive ball movement was not a huge factor in the finals series. It was their defensive unit that exceeded expectations IMV, and won them the flag, rather than their forwards or their offence. As is always the case.

Clearly Bobby Hill was the exception to this, without him against us in the QF and no Bobby Hill yesterday, and they don't win either game, so one forward certainly had a say in their results. But for the most part, having the entire team behind the ball and then countering attacking worked.

Defence will still win finals and GFs remains a truism, it's just about our coaches maximising our territory dominance and kicking a winning score when the forwardline is crowded like it was for Collingwood yesterday.

[picket fence 15,345]

14 hours ago, adonski said:

Pretty definitive proof of the giant myth of the key forward and their impact on success

Efficiency is King, speed kills, and hopefully our trade & draft period reflect that thinking....!

NO 🤮

[adonski 9,206]

19 minutes ago, picket fence said:

NO 🤮

Cmon PF, if we had 22 Spargo's we'd never miss a kick 

[Neil Crompton 4,814]

1 minute ago, adonski said:

Cmon PF, if we had 22 Spargo's we'd never miss a kick 

If we had 22 Spargo’s who then would give them the ball for them to be able to have a kick?

[adonski 9,206]

6 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

If we had 22 Spargo’s who then would give them the ball for them to be able to have a kick?

That's a Goodwin issue 

[Redleg 37,891]

5 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Well, they made a prelim last year. So their pre-season this year will be limited by an extra week?

Backed it up this year, won the flag and were missing Adams and McStay.

Key players missed throughout the entire year in Howe, Adams, Moore, De Goey (Suspension), Daicos.

They've had an incredible year and have been the best team in it.

 

But remember guys! @binman and @Binmans PA believe their game simply can't stand up in finals

So the fact that they won the Grand Final means nothing, alright?

We lost to them by 7 points, with Gus ko’d 2 minutes into the QF, effectively losing say 30 possies from an experienced versatile player and replaced by a totally non effective player, so down a fresh player at the end and having 32 more inside F50’s. Poor goal kicking and without Petty, Melk and BBB, all of whom if fit would have been better than their replacements. Also with Gus out Tracc wasn’t able to go forward. They had Daicos out.

32 more inside F50’s is usually a 12-15 goal win.

I wouldn’t say Binman and Binman PA were totally wrong, as with any luck at all, we win that QF and play off in the GF against one of Lions or Pies and possibly win it.

Pies imo are well coached, but have had enormous luck this year and we had a lot of bad luck. Look at all the non Giants frees last week and Pies win by a Point.

We haven’t won an arc decision in my recent memory.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Redleg

[Demonsterative 2,005]

32 minutes ago, adonski said:

Cmon PF, if we had 22 Spargo's we'd never miss a kick 

If we had 22 Spargo’s we would only have a team total of 200 disposals. 

[Demons11 6,404]

11 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Pendlebury and Sidebottom. Class. Efficient. Goalkicking under pressure.  That’s why they won. 

You don’t think Brisbane kicked better yesterday? I thought they were very good 

[DubDee 20,950]

Pies kicked 12.18. clearly inefficient 

they won because they had 14 more inside 50 and Hill had the game of his life

[Tarax Club 3,052]

4 hours ago, old55 said:

It's a very good graphical representation of the data. The y axis is time, the x axis is expected score and the dotted line is chance of winning.

One thing I saw immediately from the score charts was confirmation that Collingwood kicked 4 goals from set shots outside 50. That was a huge difference in this game.

So you're prepared to put the ruler thru Euler? My understanding a graph should communicate a summary of the information (data) succinctly and simply as possible. Allowing the reader to ideally correctly interpret the 'data' with relative ease.

Pleased you've been able to glean some useful information from the 'graph' but to my eye the boys and girls at Champion Data or whoever put the graph together moonlight at Bernard's in Elizabeth Street.

old55 your moniker suggests 'old school' so I'm going to cut you some slack... the horizontal or  x axis is the independent variable or time. The vertical or y axis is the dependent variable ? (wave a magic wand over that).

Edited October 1, 2023 by Tarax Club

[DeeSpencer 23,256]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

Pies kicked 12.18. clearly inefficient 

they won because they had 14 more inside 50 and Hill had the game of his life

They won because they played high pressure, high tempo footy that allowed them to play the game in their forward half whilst still spreading the ball to find quality scoring chances too.

But they also got lucky with low quality chances turning to goals - Sidebottom, De Goey x 2 from outside 50, Crisp which bailed out their lack of key forward impact. Just one of those misses and they might lose and the question would be where are their key forwards?

Brisbane got outplayed for most of the game and pulled goals from their backside with a demonstration of forward talent from Daniher, Bailey, Cameron, McCluggage. Defended their back 50 very well too. 

Overall the lessons from the game were you need forward talent and you need to play fast to score. 

But Brisbane need a forward/mids coach who can organise them defensively as much as we need one to organise our attack. They don’t chase!

[fr_ap 2,148]

17 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Was getting shouted down mid year for talking up how good Mihocek is for Collingwood from a structure point of view.

Very underrated forward of the competition. 

Their recruitment has been absolutely spot on. They recruited for speed and when and got Bobby Hill who just fits perfectly into their game plan alongside Tom Mitchell who gave them inside hardness that they lacked last year.

They'll only get better.

No, they likely won't. We all said it about the demons of 21 and the Bulldogs of 16. 

They had a lot fall into place and played well on the day. 

As their rise showed and as our stagnation post-21 showed, things are never as good or as bad as they seem. 

The reason for this is that honestly - most lists across the comp are pretty even. Every team has their 3/4/5 stars - and if they roll, you can throw a blanket over the rest. 

It all comes down to coaching, connection, mentality, and a bit of luck. Players matter far less than everyone thinks they do. 

[dazzledavey36 48,953]

1 minute ago, fr_ap said:

No, they likely won't. We all said it about the demons of 21 and the Bulldogs of 16. 

They had a lot fall into place and played well on the day. 

As their rise showed and as our stagnation post-21 showed, things are never as good or as bad as they seem. 

The reason for this is that honestly - most lists across the comp are pretty even. Every team has their 3/4/5 stars - and if they roll, you can throw a blanket over the rest. 

It all comes down to coaching, connection, mentality, and a bit of luck. Players matter far less than everyone thinks they do. 

Best you were saying this last year.

They'll ve top 4 again next year without hesitation. 

[old55 21,399]

35 minutes ago, Tarax Club said:

So you're prepared to put the ruler thru Euler? My understanding a graph should communicate a summary of the information (data) succinctly and simply as possible. Allowing the reader to ideally correctly interpret the 'data' with relative ease.

Pleased you've been able to glean some useful information from the 'graph' but to my eye the boys and girls at Champion Data or whoever put the graph together moonlight at Bernard's in Elizabeth Street.

old55 your moniker suggests 'old school' so I'm going to cut you some slack... the horizontal or  x axis is the independent variable or time. The vertical or y axis is the dependent variable ? (wave a magic wand over that).

Sorry it was my mistaken axes labelling - the x axis is time and the y axis expected score and win probability. So as you expect.  Don't  blame the author for my mistake (now corrected above in the original post for first time reader clarity)

The goal scoring position charts are very informative.

I am old school on this, a big fan of Edward Tufte. He would be happy with the work we're discussing.

Suggest you look just a little bit harder. Did you actually expand the Tweet?

Edited October 1, 2023 by old55

[dazzledavey36 48,953]

There's a bit of Richmond 2017 style to Collingwood with their forward set up yesterday.

Play the Mihocek as the sole key forward focus similar to Jack Riewoldt and then the remaining forward line was made up of smalls in Hill, Elliot, Ginavvan and McCreery.

Meanwhile they had Frampton doing a full lock down role on Harris similar to Jacob Townsend who was tagging Jake Lever in the 2017 grand final.

[Tarax Club 3,052]

1 hour ago, old55 said:

Sorry it was my mistaken axes labelling - the x axis is time and the y axis expected score and win probability. So as you expect.  Don't  blame the author for my mistake (now corrected above in the original post for first time reader clarity)

The goal scoring position charts are very informative.

I am old school on this, a big fan of Edward Tufte. He would be happy with the work we're discussing.

Suggest you look just a little bit harder. Did you actually expand the Tweet?

Referring to Simon v Garfunkel 1969 (visually) "Still, a man sees what he wants to see. And disregards the rest."  Appreciate the reference to Edward Tufte, but the AFL graphic is not in the same football park or within a bull's roar of Minard's Carte Figurative. Nebulous comes to mind, I'll stick to sculpture.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Tarax Club

[deanox 8,696]

17 hours ago, godees said:

Sidebottom 33y 8m

Pendlebury 35y 8m

Mitchell 30y 3m

Mihocek 30y 8m

Adams 30y

Howe 33y 8m

Cox 32y 6m

Elliot 31y 1m

Crisp 30y in a couple of days

Hoskin Elliott 30y

 

They are the new Geelong.

I came here to say this. All 10 of the 30+ crew played big roles in the season and the GF (except due to injury eg Taylor Adams).

Daicos led their disposals yesterday with 29. The next 6 players (every other player with more than 17 disposals, except Bobby Hill) was in that list of over 30s.

I'm not saying they'll fall in a hole next year, but it's a very short window that could close very quickly. And is very reliant on a couple of young guns.

 

Contrast that with our list, we only have a few players over 28 in our best 22. Sure May and Gawn are big holes to fill, but Viney is the only other consistent best 22 aged 28+ that we'll be hard pressed to replace in the next 4 years with what isn't already on the list.

And we were a dice roll away from it all coming together this year.

It means we are drafting and trading to improve our position, not cover our losses. And we have lots of cap space becoming available with TMac, Brown, and potentially Harmes, Jordan, Melksham, etc.

[darkhorse72 1,737]

17 hours ago, godees said:

Regarding the OP, Joe Daniher nearly got Brisbane over the line. A quality key forward is still hugely valuable.

He had great hands during the game and got some great goals, but gee he made a lot of mistakes when up the ground though.  Not a smart footballer.