We surely saw it coming. Half games and 3/4 games versus lower opposition.  Not putting them to the sword. “A win is a win, albeit ugly” was the chorus. But now those warning signs of imprecise footy are flashing red. 

In the words of Simon Goodwin after losing to the filthy pies (3 straight losses)

“There’s some pretty clear trends in the last few weeks,”

“ We played with heart, we played with spirit, we had a group of players that wanted to do well for their footy club, but our method wasn’t quite to the level”

“We’ll find ways to get better”.

so how does our method get better? Perhaps I’ll lead off. 
 

1. Connection inside 50 (forward of Centre).
Surely it’s number 1. Our inside 50s are still very high but conversion and connection are poor.  Reasons? A) Forwards Marking power. Firstly absence of Tom Mcd. Absence of strong key forward.  Either marking it or bringing it to ground. Contested marking by the opposition in our forward 50 has recently never been so high.  
B) But what about the delivery to the forwards. High bombing skyscraper kicks are useless. Like NFL punts. Lower your eyes,  look for targets, even kick to space , don’t kick to the deep forward pockets 🤮

(C) goalkicking accuracy. It’s still golden. We got away with it versus lower teams but it’s still a thorn. 

D) crumbing the packs and pressure. Kozzzy yes a pass mark. But he needs to stay inside 50 more than ever. Up the ground he’s ok but we need him at the foot of the forwards. Too often no one is there. Kozzzy stay in the 50. And maybe Bedford could get a run of a few games alongside Kozzzy. 
 

2.  Contested footy and Stoppage clearances 

yes usually our strongest point but we have been matched in this and we are getting exposed on the defensive end. I think our run and spread has dropped off with overuse of “little handballs to another player within 2 metres”. We create pressure on ourselves 

3. Run and carry and be smart with the footy

We have been beaten by sides playing “our Melbourne plan”.  Yes hold up the mirror. Slow and chip footy until we get to 60-70 out, stop and stop and prop and then bomb it (usually to a pocket or tallest opposition defender). How does Melbourne beat Melbourne.  Others show us. Run and run and create defensive pressure.  Don’t allow defensive walls to form.  We looked good in the burst , running.  Tidy up sloppy disposal (Sparrow, ANB, Harmesy) and we’d have a few more goals. 

4. Injuries and fatigue 

Yes we need May back desperately.  Lever still doesn’t look as energetic as in 21.  Petracca has struggled for several weeks and doesn’t look like the ‘21 Trac model. Surely we needed a rest v eagles or Kangas to refresh. Gawn was obviously hurt v Pies.  With May back and others recovered, we have 21 of the premiership’21 team for game v Lions. 
 

We need to find our mojo.  Watch the 2021 highlights and GF and you can see it.  Goody and team need to showcase our best to our team. It’s there if we are still hungry enough to execute it.  

An issue for years has been connection from mid to forward. 

Even when when we connect, it's only ever for parts of games. 

I genuinely believe we need another mid who is primarily a ball user as well as a genuine contested marking forward. 

If that means we need to let go of a player/players then we should look at that. 

Every year the game shifts and every year teams evolve. What worked one year won't necessarily work the next and we've all seen Godwin's stubborness over the years. 

When you hear for three weeks in a row that our connection isn't there then either one of two things is happening. 1. Goodwin continues to instruct our players to chaotically kick inside 50. And when on slow plays to kick into deep pockets regardless of opposition talls being stacked back there. 

Or 2 - We possess too many mids who don't use the ball well enough. (I believe this one). 

Petracca, Harmes, Viney, Oliver, Jordan and Sparrow. All of them are average kicks. Even Petracca who can hit targets that nobody else can is too wildly inconsistent to be considered a great ball user. 

Either Goodwin makes some position changes for the second half of the year or instructs us to enter inside 50 a different way. 

Nothing has changed in three weeks in this regard and it's concerning. 

I will tell you what it is. Mentality.

Another thing that is happening is the fumbling. It could be confidence, who knows, but it is becoming a real game changer, as we give up the ball when we are running forward and on rebound we then get killed.

Our turnover scores for and against are now diabolical.Turn this stat around and we win our last two games.

 

you can tell why they were so hot on cerra last year - need a mid who can actually lower his eyes going i50

For me moving Gus back to the wing or even get Salem in the mid/wing who can hit a target would help.

Switch Neal Bullen into Boweys role at half back....He is not kicking goals and would be more damaging there.

Switch Bowey to half forward....we need a link in the chain,  he would be more damaging there.

Play Bedford for run of weeks.  He probably deserved the spot more than Spargo or ANB lately.   He at least looks like he wants to have a ping within range.   He is only one i seen recently with a great run from behind tackle.

Too many players getting picked on GF deeds of last year, selection needs to be earned.

Iffy selections are screwing us....We have Langdon out, with Baker in reasonably good form at Casey and end up putting Spargo on a wing.  We have our defenders patched together, ie injured or beaten up and they put emergency small forwards as replacements.

Our game style/plan has sorta gone out the window....In the first 10 weeks we found many different ways to win and overcome adversity.  Now teams are just waltzing it to the wing or further before we have any sort of defensive accountability....Everyone is falling back but there is no real pressure on the ball carrier.  We have made all 3 teams look good in this regard, too little pressure means they execute their skills.

On the upside we have shown 3 possible opponents in finals nothing of our tenacious game style.... If they think we'll dish up these type performances come finals, we will lull them into false sense of security.  

A lot needs to change if we are to challenge again this year.  We need team performances where everyone plays their roles....lately too much is left to too few, our bottom 6 is hard to pick when there are a dozen or so vying for it.  Our opposition has been far hungrier.   We sit 2nd on the ladder.  The season has a fair bit to play out yet....Surely it is an upward curve from here!!

2 hours ago, Gorgoroth said:

For me moving Gus back to the wing or even get Salem in the mid/wing who can hit a target would help.

It has always seemed baffling that Salem hasn't been tried on the Wing/Midfield. He's our best ball user by foot.

Edited June 14, 20222 yr by Ham

3 weeks running we’ve lost a few of our talls for part of the game - it hurts!

3 weeks running we’ve stopped to a walk in the last. 

3 weeks running probably 6/7 connection going forward has been less than average.

3 weeks running possibly longer we seem to have left the middle of the ground open, as Pies went through middle most of the game.

in 3 weeks May has played 15 mins football!

A few steps I would take is resettle the backline:

Lever.  May(don’t be a dh).  Hibberd

Salem  Petty. Brayshaw.or Bowey     (Rivers or Hunt as 7th defender)

Bowey or Brayshaw on wing (push Jordan forward - he is getting a lot of it but too slow to move ball forward) Also Bowey better disposal & vision

Clarrie & Langdon

Jordan Weideman (6 weeks it’s yours just bl..Dy take it) Fritsch

Pickett.  BBB.  Spargo
 

Max Trac Viney

ANB. Jacko Harmes. Rivers or Hunt
 

Tomlinson. Or Sparrow (out of form, being caught to often) medi sub

Edited June 14, 20222 yr by D4Life
Left point out

31 minutes ago, NeveroddoreveN said:

Switch Neal Bullen into Boweys role at half back....He is not kicking goals and would be more damaging there.

This would be utterly terrifying

Fair dinkum guys. All this talk of Bowey to the wing and Salem to HF is nonsense. It's like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. We have a young team. Some are having second year blues (Rivers dropped), some (like Tracc and Hunt)) are hopelessly out of form and, with injuries and suspensions, we have not been able to create the stability in the structure we had last year. The good part is we only need to win two more games to get into the finals, although even that will be a challenge ( two X Lions, Cats, PAd, Dockers, Collingwood and Carlton.) We might beat Adelaide, and maybe the Dogs. Let's aim for 2023. 

All this talk about changes to the team and moving players into different positions.  I dunno.

Maybe it's all just mental and the boys need to do something positive and find a way to bond again, possibly by all going out together as a team and sitting down for a nice meal at a fancy restaurant.

2 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

All this talk about changes to the team and moving players into different positions.  I dunno.

Maybe it's all just mental and the boys need to do something positive and find a way to bond again, possibly by all going out together as a team and sitting down for a nice meal at a fancy restaurant.

Just heard that Joel Smith wont be available for this dinner.

2 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

All this talk about changes to the team and moving players into different positions.  I dunno.

Maybe it's all just mental and the boys need to do something positive and find a way to bond again, possibly by all going out together as a team and sitting down for a nice meal at a fancy restaurant.

The only area of the ground that needs a serious rethink is the forwardline. 

Tmac is done for the year (will be a miracle if he makes it back), Weideman / Mitch Brown are NQR, ANB, Kosi and Spargo are not providing anywhere near the same pressure as they were last year. Ben Brown is in ordinary form. We need to make some change in there. I don't know if that's blooding JVR, or if it's going with a smaller mix, or if it's permanently resting Gawn/Jackson at FF, but to me we are missing 2 big things at the moment:

1. Someone who can consistently win aerial contest at half forward, or at least nullify the contest and give repeated efforts to present when we win the ball at half back (so basically Tmac's role)

2. Pressure forwards who can keep the ball inside our forward 50, so we get repeat looks at the goal 

The rest of the issues, kicking, spreading, defensive running etc, I think will sort themselves out when we get out of this horrible period of injuries, illnesses and perhaps even loading. We know we can do those things well. The forwardline however is a real issue and has been all year. 

I think we know the road we are just going in the wrong direction. With not a U turn in sight.

 

Yesterday our best long entries into F50 were miss kicks that ended up directed to space, letting Brown and Jackson to run and jump at the ball. Seems like basic footy to kick to space that favours our 200cm forwards and let them jump and use their height. 
 

Every other F50 entry was directed straight at our forwards making it easy for defenders to pick them off.
 

Also spreading our forwards wouldn’t hurt. The number of times three of the Browns, Jackson and Gawn were standing next to each other was absurd. Even Cox could read where the footy was going to end up, and that’s ridiculous. 
 

I did notice Goody getting stuck into Stafford at three quarter time. Maybe he has run out of patience internally. 

Edited June 14, 20222 yr by Knuckles

We are off right across the board:

poor explosive link up run is gone.

we bomb it to the top of the square (making Cox look like superman)

midfield not winning the contest or clearance

not committing to really hitting the contest

mitch brown is not the answer, or if he is I don’t like the question

we lack forward pressure and allow turnovers out too easily

we don’t kick to space

we have lost our mojo.  Confidence looks shot (there may be heart, but with no confidence it ends in slow play and fumbles)

 

if we don’t fix this, we will be mid table.

 

Teams have worked out how to beat us.  They've cracked the code!

Much of this is a form issue but agree with NS on most points.

It is also the ability to run out a game and just run / share and carry without bumbling and fumbling.  Which sort of comes back to the form issue.  But some of it could also be linked to fitness and or a few too many players coming back from ad hoc injuries.

Point 1:  Goes without saying we have some major issues here.  Personally its my belief we've had issues in this area for years that have never fully been solved.  Ultimately we might need someone (an expert) from the outside to come in and change everything up.

No doubt its also personnel related with Macca out but lets assume he doesnt get back in time.  Who is his replacement?  We have to find someone who can take contesteds and/or crunch the packs bringing the ball to ground for the smalls, at the least!  The present crew, BB/Mitch & Weid just arent cutting it here.

Then there's the structural issue both i50 and around contested packs.  We just don't set up as well as some other teams consistently enough.  Where are the front and squares for us in both of the above scenarios?  We need the medium smalls and smalls to be getting into the right places more often including one out the back for the slider that breakes over the contest and out the back.  Where are these structures (on a regular basis i mean)??  Why is it left to Clarry to crumb a pack and goal around the body from 30.  Ok so our mids should be getting involved here but what are the dedicated smalls and mediums doing (or not doing) that sees them often nowhere near the right places?

If you watch the Blues they get this structural side down really well both i50 and at the marking contests... and it pays off for them.  Where is this discipline of structure for us?

 

Edited June 14, 20222 yr by Demon Dynasty

8 hours ago, Redleg said:

Another thing that is happening is the fumbling. It could be confidence, who knows, but it is becoming a real game changer, as we give up the ball when we are running forward and on rebound we then get killed.

Our turnover scores for and against are now diabolical.Turn this stat around and we win our last two games.

 

One of a number of issues but this along with forward connection/cohesion and conversion is high on the list IMV.

It's also a goal accuracy issue from some.  How many opportunities has ANB fluffed in the last 3 to 4 weeks?  All gettable goals but hooking to the left.  Then yesterday he finally tried to compensate but ended up over compensating and hitting the right goal post.

Harmes & Viney yesterday running into an open goal (did they even make the distance from 40?).

I've said this before quite a while back but many of our mids / genuine forwards cant kick accurately beyond about 40 meters and some can't even make 40 meters!  I get that fatigue plays a big part here but seems to happen to our fellas far too often.

We are in serious need of at least two genuine goal kickers who can roost a ball through with decent accuracy from 40 to 50 out (& sometimes just beyond).  One of them a KTF who can clunk pack marks as well and/or at least bring the ball to ground more often.

Would it kill our forwards to block for each other?... Ben Brown needs someone to help him create space to lead. Still think Petty and Brown forward is our best option. I’d keep Disco or Tomlinson down back with May. 
I like Daw in to ruck/forward if Gawn is out for a period of time 

1. Backline consistency.

Last 3 weeks, when Petty went off for 20mins all 3 games, we fell in a massive hole. Lever has been terrible and fumbly. 

May, Petty and Lever need to string games together and they must find a way when one of the 3 goes down mid game. 

2. Forward connection. 

A lot of talk about pressure rating but if opposition keeps taking intercept marks, you can't pressure.

3. Fumbling + Goalkicking.

Fumbling causes shallow kicks or been tackled. So much fumbling yesterday.

 

A lot of been made of sparrow, Anb, Spargo etc. Nah they aren't the problem. They are role players.

Our stars set the tone n playing unders.

Petracca not himself.

No may. His fault.

Lever. Playing awful. 

Salem. Underdone. 

Langdon. Playing hurt.

 

Good week to reset. 

Some very interesting comments in here. 
We are not far off it, but the ball use does need cleaning up. 
why are we not using Langdon’s run?

where are the 2-3 players running and spreading across the center?

Why aern’t the forwards creating their own space?

most of the problem is above the shoulders. 
the boys need to start enjoying Footy again 

Go out Go Karting or Ten Pin Bowling 

they need some fun during the bye

Clear the mind

10 hours ago, dl4e said:

I will tell you what it is. Mentality.

 

10 hours ago, Redleg said:

Another thing that is happening is the fumbling. It could be confidence, who knows, but it is becoming a real game changer, as we give up the ball when we are running forward and on rebound we then get killed.

Our turnover scores for and against are now diabolical.Turn this stat around and we win our last two games.

 

Both areas may well relate to fatigue 

- 4 fewer weeks of preseason compared with most other teams. (Bulldogs also struggling big time though we did them massive mental damage in the GF both as a team and to some well publicized individuals)

- I believe at least 5 players have had Covid, and some of these haven’t bounced back.  May have been more, though I cannot recall to list the 5.  I found a link that I posted several months ago reporting on slow recovery in some endurance athletes.  Could this be A factor?

Recruit some tall players