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Dees vs Bulldogs This Week



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18 minutes ago, Alex Flood said:

We’re 7-0 against top 8 teams this year yet Geelong & the Bulldogs are a dollar shorter than us for the premiership odds ?‍♂️?

We're 9-0 against the top 11 and the only team we haven't beaten is the only team we haven't played.

But you only need to read Demonland to see why people think, after the draw with Hawthorn (and the loss to GWS two weeks earlier), we're not good enough.

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9 hours ago, Alex Flood said:

We’re 7-0 against top 8 teams this year yet Geelong & the Bulldogs are a dollar shorter than us for the premiership odds ?‍♂️?

As @titan_uranusintimates - if some on here established the odds markets we’d be just ahead of Carlton…

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On 7/19/2021 at 11:27 AM, Demonland said:

Didn't he play on the weekend? I understand he has twice tested negative but if he has to isolate for 14 days despite the negative result why aren't his teammates or the opposition in isolation too?

Assuming close contacts that weren't at exposure site need to test negative but not subject to 14 day quarantine. If he tested positive then the need for teammates to quarantine for 14 days would probably take effect on basis that they would be primary close contacts or change room may be classed as a tier 1 exposure site.

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For their supposed dangerous fwd line, the Bulldogs have had kicking yips with more points than goals.  

Last few months form line:

  • vs Dees  they kicked 8.11.59 for a L
  • vs Freo they kicked 13.15.93 for a W
  • vs Geelong they kicked 11.12.78 for a L.
  • vs Eagles they kicked 13.20.98 for a W.
  • vs North they kicked 16.12.108 for a W.
  • vs Syd they kicked 8.12.60 for a L.
  • vs GCS they kicked 14.6.90 for a W

Those aren't like the very high scores of early in the season, with just one game over 100pts.  Vs top 8 sides they have kicked 59, 78, 98 and 60 and lost 3 of those games of which two were at Marvel.

If their weakness is supposedly defence Bevo must also be worried with the fwd line's inability to score well vs the 'better' teams and imv the evidence shows it isn't as dangerous as many believe.  

We have every reason to be confident of a win this week.

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1 minute ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

For their supposed dangerous fwd line, the Bulldogs have had kicking yips with more points than goals.  

Last few months form line:

  • vs Dees  they kicked 8.11.59 for a L
  • vs Freo they kicked 13.15.93 for a W
  • vs Geelong they kicked 11.12.78 for a L.
  • vs Eagles they kicked 13.20.98 for a W.
  • vs North they kicked 16.12.108 for a W.
  • vs Syd they kicked 8.12.60 for a L.
  • vs GCS they kicked 14.6.90 for a W

Those aren't like the very high scores of early in the season, with just one game over 100pts.  Vs top 8 sides they have kicked 59, 78, 98 and 60 and lost 3 of those games of which two were at Marvel.

If their weakness is supposedly defence Bevo must also be worried with the fwd line's inability to score well vs the 'better' teams and imv the evidence shows it isn't as dangerous as many believe.  

We have every reason to be confident of a win this week.

Their forward line is crap. Naughton's a star but if you restrict his output the rest crumble. With that being said, JUH is the ace up their sleep, whether he can show it consistently though is another story for a 1st year player.

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4 minutes ago, adonski said:

Their forward line is crap. Naughton's a star but if you restrict his output the rest crumble. With that being said, JUH is the ace up their sleep, whether he can show it consistently though is another story for a 1st year player.

Isn't that what my post shows?  Altho I wouldn't say 'crap', more that they are not as dangerous as it is lauded to be; at least not vs better teams and not in the last part of the season.

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1 minute ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Isn't that what my post shows?  That was my point - it is lauded as dangerous but it isn't or at least not vs better teams and not in the last part of the season.

Was I not allowed to agree? 

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20 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

For their supposed dangerous fwd line, the Bulldogs have had kicking yips with more points than goals.  

Last few months form line:

  • vs Dees  they kicked 8.11.59 for a L
  • vs Freo they kicked 13.15.93 for a W
  • vs Geelong they kicked 11.12.78 for a L.
  • vs Eagles they kicked 13.20.98 for a W.
  • vs North they kicked 16.12.108 for a W.
  • vs Syd they kicked 8.12.60 for a L.
  • vs GCS they kicked 14.6.90 for a W

Those aren't like the very high scores of early in the season, with just one game over 100pts.  Vs top 8 sides they have kicked 59, 78, 98 and 60 and lost 3 of those games of which two were at Marvel.

If their weakness is supposedly defence Bevo must also be worried with the fwd line's inability to score well vs the 'better' teams and imv the evidence shows it isn't as dangerous as many believe.  

We have every reason to be confident of a win this week.

Why is 100 the magic number? Genuine q.

90, 93 and 98 seem handy. 93 and 98 in particular, lots of shots on goal

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21 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

If their weakness is supposedly defence Bevo must also be worried with the fwd line's inability to score well vs the 'better' teams and imv the evidence shows it isn't as dangerous as many believe.  

 

Agree.

Its funny how ideas of how ideas form about some teams that don't reflect reality.

The dogs are an attacking side who love to move the ball quickly side. And in the early part of the season banged on some big scores, notable thrashing the roos, suns and the saints (the week before being held to 50 odd points against us).

But they have only scored 173 points more than us. And their points for is bolstered by the the three games noted above - 167, 118 and 144 points respectively. 

Against the teams around them on the ladder they have found scoring much, much harder.

Against the Swans they could only manage 60 points, 59 points against us, 78 points against Geelong and 73 points against the Lions, the only game they won of these games.  They did manage 96 points against Port, which they also won. 

And as you suggest people seem to think they their weakness is their defence. Yet have only conceded 18 points less than us - though it is worth noting that in the roos, suns and the saints games i noted above those teams only managed to score 39, 56 and 33 points respectively, which skews things quite a bit.

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36 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

Why is 100 the magic number? Genuine q.

90, 93 and 98 seem handy. 93 and 98 in particular, lots of shots on goal

100 pts it often a de facto cut-off point when AFL score comparisons are made in the media/AFL for high/low scoring trends.

That aside, my post was highlighting the drop off in their fwd line performance both in terms of high scores ie > 100 and conversion in the most recent games.

To make the comparison clearer:

In the first 10 games bulldogs kicked 100 or more in 6 of their 10 games.  They won 9 of those 10 games and in each win they had positive conversion: more goals than points.  As per my post, since then they have kicked >100 in one of 7 games and positive conversion in two of those 7 games.

In the first 10 games they had 3 scores of 90+ and they have 3 since so no change there.

Interestingly, it is the last game we played which changed their scoring momentum.  Coincidence?

I don't fear their fwd line or their back line.  Tipping us to win.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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The Dogs rely on getter cleaner ‘extractions’ from stoppages than the opposition; they front run, run in packs, and share well. Our ‘shape’ is better in that we tend not to front run as much as they do. They want to be clean in close and if you can shut that off - that makes it a territory game that we are built to push back.

But this is only a concern when your application and intensity is up and about. We have had it up for most of the year with some notable drops.

In terms of the result in this game, who knows. We have 5 rounds to stay above PA or Bris and then the new season begins. That’s all I care right now. We know what this team can do. They need to give themselves the chance for a Melb qual and prelim and show it on the biggest of stages.

 

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Hoping a big game from TMAC.. more so I can hear Hamish talk again about how he was shopped around end of last season and no one wanted him and look at him now.. and Luke Darcy to mention again about his all meat diet.. 

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4 minutes ago, SPC said:

Hoping a big game from TMAC.. more so I can hear Hamish talk again about how he was shopped around end of last season and no one wanted him and look at him now.. and Luke Darcy to mention again about his all meat diet.. 

Did you know Jackson represented Australia in basketball.....

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The season has shown the dogs struggle against good defensive sides.  They don’t seem to have fixed it given recent results.  The questions are:

1: will we turn up focussed to play at our best?

2: Will the dogs adjust their game plan towards us similar to what the hawks did? 
 

The first point we have a great record against top sides.   The second point is more of the worry and unknown.  Though this late they’ll maybe make some minor adjustments, but they’ll back their system and personnel.

makes tipping really hard when your leading by 1…

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3 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

For their supposed dangerous fwd line, the Bulldogs have had kicking yips with more points than goals.  

Last few months form line:

  • vs Dees  they kicked 8.11.59 for a L
  • vs Freo they kicked 13.15.93 for a W
  • vs Geelong they kicked 11.12.78 for a L.
  • vs Eagles they kicked 13.20.98 for a W.
  • vs North they kicked 16.12.108 for a W.
  • vs Syd they kicked 8.12.60 for a L.
  • vs GCS they kicked 14.6.90 for a W

Those aren't like the very high scores of early in the season, with just one game over 100pts.  Vs top 8 sides they have kicked 59, 78, 98 and 60 and lost 3 of those games of which two were at Marvel.

If their weakness is supposedly defence Bevo must also be worried with the fwd line's inability to score well vs the 'better' teams and imv the evidence shows it isn't as dangerous as many believe.  

We have every reason to be confident of a win this week.

And listening to this - Bevo following the loss to Sydney a few weeks ago, he laments not having a stable forward line ...

https://www.afl.com.au/video/646698/bevo-we-were-dysfunctional-forward-of-the-ball-?videoId=646698&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1625993100001

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11 minutes ago, Darkhorse72 said:

The season has shown the dogs struggle against good defensive sides.  They don’t seem to have fixed it given recent results.  The questions are:

1: will we turn up focussed to play at our best?

2: Will the dogs adjust their game plan towards us similar to what the hawks did? 
 

The first point we have a great record against top sides.   The second point is more of the worry and unknown.  Though this late they’ll maybe make some minor adjustments, but they’ll back their system and personnel.

makes tipping really hard when your leading by 1…

I obviously don't want us to lose... but if this game forces the bulldogs to try something that works, I'd rather it come out in this match than in a final.  Should be a very interesting match.  Libba and Bont and co will want to put in a much better showing than last time.

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4 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

For their supposed dangerous fwd line, the Bulldogs have had kicking yips with more points than goals.  

Last few months form line:

  • vs Dees  they kicked 8.11.59 for a L
  • vs Freo they kicked 13.15.93 for a W
  • vs Geelong they kicked 11.12.78 for a L.
  • vs Eagles they kicked 13.20.98 for a W.
  • vs North they kicked 16.12.108 for a W.
  • vs Syd they kicked 8.12.60 for a L.
  • vs GCS they kicked 14.6.90 for a W

Those aren't like the very high scores of early in the season, with just one game over 100pts.  Vs top 8 sides they have kicked 59, 78, 98 and 60 and lost 3 of those games of which two were at Marvel.

If their weakness is supposedly defence Bevo must also be worried with the fwd line's inability to score well vs the 'better' teams and imv the evidence shows it isn't as dangerous as many believe.  

We have every reason to be confident of a win this week.

Purely for balance on the subject and for comparison purposes:

Dogs last 7 games as per your stats:

- 83 goals, 88 behinds (171 scores) (48.5% accuracy)

Melbournes last 7:

13.9 v dogs win

14.13 v lions win

9.9 v Coll loss

9.14 v Ess win

7.13 v Giants loss

12.14 v Port win

11.13 v Hawks draw

Total: 75 goals, 88 behinds (163 scores) (46.0% accuracy)

We definitely have a better defence than them, but would say on those numbers, their offence is better.

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4 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

For their supposed dangerous fwd line, the Bulldogs have had kicking yips with more points than goals.  

Last few months form line:

  • vs Dees  they kicked 8.11.59 for a L
  • vs Freo they kicked 13.15.93 for a W
  • vs Geelong they kicked 11.12.78 for a L.
  • vs Eagles they kicked 13.20.98 for a W.
  • vs North they kicked 16.12.108 for a W.
  • vs Syd they kicked 8.12.60 for a L.
  • vs GCS they kicked 14.6.90 for a W

Those aren't like the very high scores of early in the season, with just one game over 100pts.  Vs top 8 sides they have kicked 59, 78, 98 and 60 and lost 3 of those games of which two were at Marvel.

If their weakness is supposedly defence Bevo must also be worried with the fwd line's inability to score well vs the 'better' teams and imv the evidence shows it isn't as dangerous as many believe.  

We have every reason to be confident of a win this week.

Watch a 15-5 pop up for them even in the wet.

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