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2020 Phantom Drafts & Rankings



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Anyone else get that sinking feeling we were probably keen to get Macrae, Laurie or Stone with our early picks and all 3 will be gone? 
 

Now we’ll be scrambling to trade out one of the first 3 picks. 

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For the first time since 2004, where I predicted Melbourne taking Matthew Bate and Jordan Russell, I've decided to post a return of the Goodoil Phantom Draft.  Here is the first round, with the rest t

Here's my updated phantom draft from last week, with round 3 as well now. I've still got us taking the same players, as well as Winder in the 3rd round. I'll have a short writeup of our picks below ph

Thanks to both Gawndog98 and Goodoil for your bravery in committing to a phantom draft.  I like Goodoil’s lateral thinking on the potential pick trades. The one for Collingwood is particularly interes

5 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Anyone else get that sinking feeling we were probably keen to get Macrae, Laurie or Stone with our early picks and all 3 will be gone? 
 

Now we’ll be scrambling to trade out one of the first 3 picks. 

Would be the height of stupidity for the club to trade to those spots ahead of time without having a variety of options, contingencies and palatable fallback options.

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11 minutes ago, goodoil said:

Chaser, it's amusing that you contacted Dean Duursma, because there have been a lot of public comparisons between Ryan Angwin and Dean's son of Port Adelaide fame.  Angwin's one of a number of last year's bottom agers that with the benefit of some imagination of what his top age year development would have been like, you can see a promising player - a name to watch on draft night!

Indeed! I pinged Dean with the question on the back of a Riley Beveridge article which referenced the work that Ryan did with Xavier over the lockdown period.

Dean's potentially got a touch of bias as a coach at Gippy Power and he's really passionate about the boys that come through the program, but loads of respect for his insight.

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11 minutes ago, goodoil said:

Would be the height of stupidity for the club to trade to those spots ahead of time without having a variety of options, contingencies and palatable fallback options.

I hear what your saying but if there’s a player that we really rate and we have to trade up to be sure of getting him I don’t mind it. Mahoney has said we would look at trading up. 
I’d also be surprised if JT doesn’t pulled some rabbit out of the hat that nobody is expecting with one of our later pick. 
Agree that trading on the night probably makes more sense. No point in trading up before draft night if the player we want is already gone. 

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Just now, Colm said:

I hear what your saying but if there’s a player that we really rate and we have to trade up to be sure of getting him I don’t mind it. Mahoney has said we would look at trading up. 
I’d also be surprised if JT doesn’t pulled some rabbit out of the hat that nobody is expecting with one of our later pick. 

Well, that's right but if you were targeting a specific player and you can make that trade on the night to get that player when you know he is there at that pick, that is sensible.  What wouldn't be sensible is trading up to a spot a few weeks from the draft, the players you want not being there and then you are in no man's land picking players you are not that bullish about at picks you have obtained from giving away valuable future draft material.  I'm not saying that is what is happening, I think the club probably has an array of targets that they are happy with at that stage of the draft and maybe has some has trade up targets in mind as well if the opportunity arises.  But I think theoretically and mathematically, a long-range trade up with one player in mind, unless its very early in the draft where the player order is more polarised isn't particularly smart, given the fluidity of the draft.

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14 minutes ago, goodoil said:

Would be the height of stupidity for the club to trade to those spots ahead of time without having a variety of options, contingencies and palatable fallback options.

 

Melbourne doing something stupid would hardly be a surprise! 
 

The Brisbane deal was a fair deal, but certainly a huge risk. Surely we knew when we did it that 18-19 combined to move up would’ve been tough and keeping those picks has to be an option. But whether we get 1 or 2 of our prime targets is an unknown.
 

Gold Coast have set the bar very low, probably far too low, for a pick in the 20’s. We have to at least get a future second and hopefully for a team that misses finals if we’re trading out. Usually on draft night teams will overpay. If we’re trading out we hope that’s the case. Most clubs are just valuing next years draft far higher which makes a lot of sense. 

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8 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Anyone else get that sinking feeling we were probably keen to get Macrae, Laurie or Stone with our early picks and all 3 will be gone? 
 

Now we’ll be scrambling to trade out one of the first 3 picks. 

No sinking feelings are for those who still go on about 186, the PF loss in Perth and anything else that has gone wrong in the last 50 + years

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14 hours ago, Gawndog98 said:

Obviously is very very different from my last one, I'm not very confident in this happening because of all the conflicting reports on who will go where at the moment but this phantom draft more outlines Melbourne's best case scenario which this scenario is a possibility. Hoping there's some more clarity around each pick early next week when all the good mock drafts drop. Macrae and Carroll both inside/outside midfield types who are both great kicks and would correct our outside midfield deficiencies, would be a dream to have them both on the board at our picks. Either could play half back or half forward as well. Bowey could play anywhere and add a fair bit as a small forward to start his career, he's an elite kick which we don't have many of. Still have Baldwin getting to our pick but he's a bit of an unknown where he goes, either way he's a long term key position player who could be one of the best players in the draft if he got back to his under 16's form before he did 2 ACL's.

R1

1.     Western Bulldogs (NGA) – Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (VIC) – key forward

2.     Adelaide – Riley Thilthorpe (SA) – key forward/ruck

3.     North Melbourne – Logan MacDonald (WA) – key forward

4.     Sydney – Denver Grainger-Barrass (WA) – key defender

5.     Hawthorn – Elijah Hollands (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward

6.     Gold Coast – Zach Reid (VIC) – key defender

7.     Essendon – Will Phillips (VIC) – inside midfielder

8.     Essendon – Nik Cox (VIC) – tall utility 

9.     Sydney (NGA) – Braeden Campbell (NSW) – balanced midfielder/small forward

10.  Essendon – Archie Perkins (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward

11.  Adelaide – Reef McInnes (VIC – bid not matched) – inside midfielder/medium utility

12.  Port Adelaide (NGA) – Lachlan Jones (SA) – general defender

13.  GWS – Heath Chapman (WA) – general defender

14.  North Melbourne – Tom Powell (SA) – inside midfielder

15.  Fremantle – Oliver Henry (VIC) – medium utility

16.  GWS – Bailey Laurie (VIC) – small forward/balanced midfielder 

17.  Collingwood – Connor Stone (VIC) – medium utility

18.  GWS – Tanner Bruhn (VIC) – inside midfielder 

19.  Brisbane (NGA) – Blake Coleman (QL) – small forward

20.  Collingwood – Brayden Cook (SA) – outside midfielder/general forward

21.  Richmond – Matt Allison (VIC) – key forward/outside midfielder

22.  Melbourne – Finlay Macrae (VIC) – balanced midfielder 

23.  Sydney (NGA) – Errol Gulden (NSW) – outside midfielder/small forward

24.  Melbourne – Jack Carroll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender

25.  Hawthorn (NGA) – Connor Downie (VIC) – outside midfielder/general defender

26.  GWS – Luke Pedlar (SA) – inside midfielder 

27.  St Kilda – Nathan O’Driscoll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender

 

R2

28.  Adelaide – Caleb Poulter (SA) – balanced midfielder/general forward

29.  Adelaide – Liam Kolar (VIC) – key forward/outside midfielder

30.  GWS – Jackson Callow (TAS) – tall utility

31.  Geelong – Sam Berry (VIC) – inside midfielder

32.  Fremantle (NGA) – Brandon Walker (WA) – general defender

33.  Melbourne – Jake Bowey (VIC) – small utility 

34.  North Melbourne – Zavier Maher (VIC) – inside midfielder

35.  Fremantle (NGA) – Joel Western (WA) – small utility

36.  Carlton – Corey Durdin (SA) – small forward

37.  Richmond – Zane Trew (WA) – inside midfielder

38.  Carlton – Eddie Ford (VIC) – general forward/inside midfielder

39.  Essendon (NGA) – Cody Brand (VIC) – key defender

40.  Adelaide (NGA) – Tariek Newchurch (SA) – small forward

41.  North Melbourne – Jack Ginnivan (VIC) – general forward/inside midfielder

 

R3 

42.  Hawthorn – Max Heath (VIC) – ruck 

43.  Hawthorn – Josh Eyre (VIC – bid not matched) – tall utility 

44.  Richmond (NGA) – Maurice Rioli Jnr (NT) – small forward

45.  Hawthorn – Isiah Winder (WA) – small utility

46.  Melbourne – Kaine Baldwin (SA) – key forward

47.  Geelong – Henry Walsh (VIC) – ruck 

48.  Brisbane – Shannon Neale (WA) – ruck 

49.  Port Adelaide – Zac Dumensy (SA) – outside midfielder/general defender 

@gawndog. Great work again. The players are the types clubs are after and fairly ranked.  Well thought out and researched. 

 I’d say very optimistic for the Dees picks.
🤞🤞🤞Finlay Macrae ️ and Jack Carroll ️.  That would be Merry Xmas!!! (O’Driscoll dropping that far is a big call as he is a strong kid not unlike Clarry). 
Bowey - ok - but as you probably know, I am a fan of Maher, and also Ford and Winder because of their X factor.  
Baldwin can be that punt that sometimes clubs take.  If we got him, he could take his time to get his body right and fitness back. 
 

Thanks again for the read and predictions.  
 

Whatever happens, it’s a great night for 55-60 young blokes whose first step of an AFL dream comes true.  

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17 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

I did the same with us taking them 2

First Round prediction based on club needs and available players
1. Essendon trade 6 & 7 to Crows take Logan McDonald 
 

 

Really hope that doesn't happen. 

Want to see Bombers keep picks 6-7-8 and pick their usual vanilla players.

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An interesting take by Fox on our needs:  what-every-club-needs-in-the-draft

MELBOURNE

Defensive mid

The ‘red wave’ was alive and well in 2020 when the Dees had the ball, with plenty of offensive running on show. Pressure the other way though wasn’t as good for Simon Goodwin’s men - they ranked 17th in tackle differential and pressure differential. Part of this must be down to effort given the sheer number of inside mids that are already on the list - someone like Liam Pedler is another inside player who applies pressure and would help rectify the club’s defensive capabilities. It looms as their biggest need now that they’ve got Ben Brown to shore up the forward line, but it depends on how much Simon Goodwin thinks he can fix the issue internally rather than using their first draft pick to do so.

A defensive mid is not what most would have thought given our need for an outside mid and a small forward.  I can see why they think that, given we are 17th on tackle and pressure differential which is an indictment on a team that professes to base its game 'on the contest'.  I would say Goodwin will try and fix it internally with the players (forwards and mids) he has rather than use a good draft pick for another inside mid.  Unless those we have up their game and effort one more inside mid won't fix our tackle/pressure problem.

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1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

An interesting take by Fox on our needs:  what-every-club-needs-in-the-draft

MELBOURNE

Defensive mid

The ‘red wave’ was alive and well in 2020 when the Dees had the ball, with plenty of offensive running on show. Pressure the other way though wasn’t as good for Simon Goodwin’s men - they ranked 17th in tackle differential and pressure differential. Part of this must be down to effort given the sheer number of inside mids that are already on the list - someone like Liam Pedler is another inside player who applies pressure and would help rectify the club’s defensive capabilities. It looms as their biggest need now that they’ve got Ben Brown to shore up the forward line, but it depends on how much Simon Goodwin thinks he can fix the issue internally rather than using their first draft pick to do so.

A defensive mid is not what most would have thought given our need for an outside mid and a small forward.  I can see why they think that, given we are 17th on tackle and pressure differential which is an indictment on a team that professes to base its game 'on the contest'.  I would say Goodwin will try and fix it internally with the players (forwards and mids) he has rather than use a good draft pick for another inside mid.  Unless those we have up their game and effort one more inside mid won't fix our tackle/pressure problem.

I go back to the Bulldogs game where they matched us in the inside contest and it was about even for clearances. But they killed us out wide where their runners and rebound like Crozier and JJ and Bailey Smith were able to outrun us. It’s midfield runners that are the priority!! 

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3 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

I go back to the Bulldogs game where they matched us in the inside contest and it was about even for clearances. But they killed us out wide where their runners and rebound like Crozier and JJ and Bailey Smith were able to outrun us. It’s midfield runners that are the priority!! 

Fix this and we'll be a very hard team to beat.

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1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

I go back to the Bulldogs game where they matched us in the inside contest and it was about even for clearances. But they killed us out wide where their runners and rebound like Crozier and JJ and Bailey Smith were able to outrun us. It’s midfield runners that are the priority!! 

 

1 hour ago, TRIGON said:

Fix this and we'll be a very hard team to beat.

Agreed.

I would add fix the i50 tackles and pressure.  I suspect the 17th ranking on the differentials for those is as much to do with the lack of work rate by our fwds as it is by the midfield.  We have the players to do it but they all need to lift that part of their game. 

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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58 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

I go back to the Bulldogs game where they matched us in the inside contest and it was about even for clearances. But they killed us out wide where their runners and rebound like Crozier and JJ and Bailey Smith were able to outrun us. It’s midfield runners that are the priority!! 

Not exactly. Watch players like Libba and Hunter, they immediately look to give it off, but wide, sideways or backwards, to the free man. The free man becomes the runner and looks quick, because he has a few metres on his opponent, who has left him for the contest, instead of manning up.

When we get the ball inside, we either try to break tackles (Viney) or handball it like a hot potato, to players manned up, a metre away (Oliver).

That is the difference, that makes our mids less effective than they should be and makes us look slower than we are.

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16 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Not exactly. Watch players like Libba and Hunter, they immediately look to give it off, but wide, sideways or backwards, to the free man. The free man becomes the runner and looks quick, because he has a few metres on his opponent, who has left him for the contest, instead of manning up.

When we get the ball inside, we either try to break tackles (Viney) or handball it like a hot potato, to players manned up, a metre away (Oliver).

That is the difference, that makes our mids less effective than they should be and makes us look slower than we are.

This has been going on for years

Goodwin and the coaches dont seem able to fix it

I hope thay do

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1 hour ago, Redleg said:

When we get the ball inside, we either try to break tackles (Viney) or handball it like a hot potato, to players manned up, a metre away (Oliver).

That is the difference, that makes our mids less effective than they should be and makes us look slower than we are.

Absolutely correct! This must change for success next season. 

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58 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Not exactly. Watch players like Libba and Hunter, they immediately look to give it off, but wide, sideways or backwards, to the free man. The free man becomes the runner and looks quick, because he has a few metres on his opponent, who has left him for the contest, instead of manning up.

When we get the ball inside, we either try to break tackles (Viney) or handball it like a hot potato, to players manned up, a metre away (Oliver).

That is the difference, that makes our mids less effective than they should be and makes us look slower than we are.

Fair point. I think it’s because they sometimes don’t have the options.  I agree they will win the footy and then look for the runners.  Not try to take on 2-3 tacklers.  
 

To a degree I think the free man / runner wasn’t there. Langdon’s recruitment showed our need and hopefully our intent. 
 

 Viney Clarry Trac Harmes Gus will win the footy. That’s unquestioned. In 2021, with (1)outside 1-2 more runners like Langdon and (2)Ben Brown as the #1 target, Goody will finally need to convince our midfield bulls to win, burst/distribute to handball to our runners or kick to our big leading forwards.  

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Cal's Phantom Draft is in

Cal Twomey's 2020 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, your club's whispers

He has us taking Jack Carroll and Max Holmes at 21 and 23 respectively with a bid on Sydney's Errol Guldon in between (which he predicted would be matched). 

He has tipped Macrae to go to Richmond one place before us :(

JACK CARROLL - 21 

POS: Midfielder

Ht 187cm, Wt 79kg, DOB 20/12/02

From East Fremantle/Western Australia

There are plenty of clubs who are fans of Carroll, with the talented West Australia turning heads with his decision making ability and capacity to dodge and weave through traffic. The midfielder is adept at winning his own disposals – noted by his place atop the colts' competition's contested disposal count – but also can get into space. At his height he also offers a bigger presence than some others around his mark in the pool. 

If not him? The Demons would be looking to see if Bailey Laurie is available, while Finlay Macrae would also be wiped off the board if still available at the Dees' pair of picks. 

MAX HOLMES - 23

POS: Midfielder

Ht 189cm, Wt 74kg, DOB 29/8/02

From Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro

There's always room for a smokey. Holmes would be a genuine surprising inclusion in the top-30, but it is not beyond the realms. The excellent athlete shapes as a real bolter given he has played so little football in the talent pathway, but he put himself on the map with his testing, when he ran 2.8 seconds in the 20-metre sprint and 6:25 in the 2km time trial. He played one game for Sandringham last year having given away an athletics career, with his mother Lee Naylor a former Olympian and Commonwealth Games gold medallist. 

If not him? The Dees have been linked to Holmes for his running power and he would get a look under certain scenarios. Caleb Poulter is another who may be in their thoughts as the first round stretches out. 

Melbourne

"The Dees will use three picks at the draft, but where their third selection actually is remains in play. Melbourne is another club who is open to offload its second-round pick in exchange for a future pick if it can find a taker, which would mean they grab their third player at No.50. They have shown some interest in Sandringham Dragons small Jake Bowey, as well as athletic tall Fraser Rosman, who blew away the testing with his speed and endurance mix and can play on the wing. Another outside option who they could think about is Gippsland's Ryan Angwin, while leaping tall Jaidyn Hunter attracted some investigation through the year."

 

*Cheers to the admin for cleaning up my post, I haven't got my head around the toolbar just yet.

 

Edited by Nascent
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Cal really needs to get closer to the Melbourne team as he always seems to be guessing what we are doing, and he gets much better mail from other clubs :p 

All seriousness, picking the draft looks like a dart board right now. I've read up all the bios, there are plenty of players that suit our mix at the picks we have and any combination will be great and a good addition to the team. I know that we are keen to trade out our second rounder, but I'd love to see us take the 3 best kids we can and see what happens. 

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There's a little bit of footage of Carroll here. https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/giantroo-draft-videos.1181782/post-68047495

Looks a good mover with a penetrating left foot kick, but certainly from last year would have to do a lot of work on his tackling and strength at the contest. 

He's as young as any player in this draft as well so might take a bit more time to build up. He looks like a half back flanker to me, at least in the early years. 

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