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THE RUN HOME 2020


Whispering_Jack
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Yikes, I had us missing the 8. I had us losing to Dogs, GWS and Saints. I reckon GWS will turn their form around.

Shows what a massive game it is this weekend against the dogs. I would go as far to say if we win, we will make finals as I reckon wins against Bombers, Swans and Freo are likely.

                        W  L  D
 1. Port Adelaide      14  3  0  124.2%
 2. Brisbane Lions     14  3  0  120.1%
 3. West Coast         13  4  0  116.2%
 4. Richmond           12  4  1  121.0%
 5. Geelong            11  6  0  128.7%
 6. GWS                11  6  0  107.0%
 7. St Kilda           10  7  0  110.8%
 8. Western Bulldogs   10  7  0  101.9%
 9. Collingwood         9  7  1  103.5%
10. Melbourne           9  8  0  116.2%
11. Carlton             8  9  0   98.0%
12. Gold Coast          6 10  1   96.0%
13. Essendon            6 10  1   84.3%
14. Fremantle           5 12  0   87.3%
15. Hawthorn            5 12  0   85.3%
16. North Melbourne     4 13  0   85.8%
17. Sydney              4 13  0   81.1%
18. Adelaide            0 17  0   61.2%

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I picked the Dogs for the flag this year - they are highly talented (clearly better than they were in 2016), have a fit list and Beveridge is a very good coach.  They will be an all mighty test for us this week.  I reckon if we win we're guaranteed to play finals and it will indicate to me that we can give the flag a real shake.

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2 hours ago, Deemented Are Go! said:

So we need to win 4 of the last 5. 
Watch us beat Stkilda and not turn up against Sydney, or some such scenario. How the stomach churns. 

No chance.

We'll need to win 3 of the last 4 (likely dropping the GWS game) and hope that 9 and a decent percentage is enough.

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This week I have added # of days between games shown as (x) for each game.  I've also added (F) for flights for the 7th and 8th spots contenders.

Interesting that in many cases a bye isn't really a bye.  The break for a bye ranges from 7 days to 12 days.

image.png.1f3c96a8cbafb18ee729aba331be4720.png

Final 8 Contenders:

  • 7th Collingwood:  Almost there
  • 8th Bulldogs:  can still miss the 8 as they have a tough run home.  They are on 7 wins and need to win at least two of their last 4 to be safe; two of which are vs Cats and Eagles.  They will fancy themselves vs Hawks and Freo.
  • 9th Demons, 10th Blues and 11th Giants sit outside the 8, all on six wins with 5 games yet to play:
    • We have a good %'age altho that can be lost quite quickly as the loss of 6% at the weekend showed. 
    • I don't see any clear %'age boosting games for us whereas the Blues and Giants play the Crows. 
    • After this week all 3 teams have two 5 day breaks and one 4 day break
    • The travel gods are really favouring Carlton (and Collingwood) as they have no flights in their run to round 17, whereas we fly each week.
    • Freo play Bulldogs, Dees and Giants.  They are on a roll, have conceded miserly scores so could easily determine who makes it. 
Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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4 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

This week I have added # of days between games shown as (x) for each game.  I've also added (F) for flights for the 7th and 8th spots contenders.

Interesting that in many cases a bye isn't really a bye.  The break for a bye ranges from 7 days to 12 days.

image.png.7be1257bba04951a76dd5627ea6b3935.png

Final 8 Contenders:

  • 7th Collingwood:  Almost there
  • 8th Bulldogs:  can still miss the 8 as they have a tough run home.  They are on 7 wins and need to win at least two of their last 4 to be safe; two of which are vs Cats and Eagles.  They will fancy themselves vs Hawks and Freo.
  • 9th Demons, 10th Blues and 11th Giants sit outside the 8, all on six wins with 5 games yet to play:
    • We have a good %'age altho that can be lost quite quickly as the loss of 6% at the weekend showed. 
    • I don't see any clear %'age boosting games for us whereas the Blues and Giants play the Crows. 
    • After this week all 3 teams have two 5 day breaks and one 4 day break
    • The travel gods are really favouring Carlton (and Collingwood) as they have no flights in their run to round 17
    • Freo play Bulldogs, Dees and Giants.  They are on a roll, have conceded miserly scores so could easily determine who makes it. 

We sure love making it difficult on ourselves to scrape into finals.

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1 PORT ADELAIDE Played 13, 40 pts, 126.6% 

TO COME: Sydney Bye North Melbourne Essendon Collingwood 

2 BRISBANE LIONS Played 13, 40 pts, 117.4% 

TO COME Bye Collingwood Gold Coast Sydney Carlton 

3 GEELONG Played 13, 36 pts, 140.6% 

TO COME Western Bulldogs Bye Essendon Richmond Sydney

4 WEST COAST Played 12, 36 pts, 121.3%

TO COME Richmond Essendon Western Bulldogs St Kilda North Melbourne

5 RICHMOND Played 13, 34 pts, 119.0% 

TO COME West Coast Fremantle Bye Geelong Adelaide 

6 ST KILDA Played 13, 32 pts, 114.5%

TO COME Melbourne Bye Hawthorn West Coast GWS Giants 

7 COLLINGWOOD Played 13, 30 pts, 109.1%

TO COME Carlton Brisbane Lions Bye Gold Coast Port Adelaide

8 W. BULLDOGS Played 13, 28 points, 101.4% 

TO COME Geelong Bye Hawthorn West Coast  Fremantle 

9 MELBOURNE Played 12, 24 points, 112.1%

TO COME St Kilda Sydney Fremantle GWS Giants Essendon 

10 CARLTON Played 12, 24 points, 100.0%

TO COME Collingwood GWS Giants Sydney Adelaide Brisbane Lions

11 GWS GIANTS Played 12, 24 pts, 96.8% 

TO COME Carlton Adelaide Fremantle Melbourne St Kilda

12 ESSENDON Played 12, 22 points, 85.9%

TO COME Hawthorn Geelong West Coast Port Adelaide Melbourne

13 FREMANTLE Played 12, 20 points, 93.5% 

TO COME GWS Giants Richmond Melbourne North Melbourne Western Bulldogs 
 
14 GOLD COAST Played 13, 18 points, 96.4%

TO COME Fremantle Brisbane Lions North Melbourne Bye Collingwood Hawthorn

15 SYDNEY Played 12, 16 points, 81.7% 

TO COME Port Adelaide  Melbourne Carlton Brisbane Lions  Geelong

16 HAWTHORN Played 12, 16 points, 82.5%

TO COME Essendon Adelaide St Kilda Western Bulldogs Gold Coast 

17 NORTH MELBOURNE Played 13, 12 points, 83.1% 

TO COME Gold Coast Bye Port Adelaide Fremantle West Coast

18 ADELAIDE Played 13, 0 points, 54.9% 

TO COME Bye Hawthorn GWS Giants Carlton Richmond

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Maybe it’s my MFCSS but I have us finishing on 9 wins and finishing 9th-10th. That’s at the bottom end of where I rated us and it shows how costly it was not being able to get over the line against one of the Lions or Cats. 

I expect us to lose this week, thought maybe just maybe they will be a little bruised up and tired from the game against the Lions, and you would hope the players want to pull their finger out to provide a better showing than the second half last week.

This and the GWS game make or break our season, we win this week I think we make it. 

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1 hour ago, Cards13 said:

$100 we don’t make finals. Fair chance we finish 13th. 

Who do you have us losing to in our run home out of interest? I have GWS and Saints. 

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7 hours ago, Pates said:

Who do you have us losing to in our run home out of interest? I have GWS and Saints. 

As long as it is mathematically possible for us to make finals we’ll lose every must win, 8 point, line in the sand game. History has been a good guide and I’m wallowing in MFCSS after the weekend. 

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Percentage to play a part but I have us 9 or 10. I have had us 9-12 all season. That said the Club still has an opportunity to  make the finals and participate in a Unique finals series.  Some here argue we have the players, some the coach but no evidence yet of being a finals side. If we dont make the finals I say we will be a very damaged Club of players and coaches going into the 2021 season so it is all on the line now.

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If we do miss finals this year it'll be as much because we took eight weeks to work out how to get someone in our midfield to kick the ball to someone in our forward line. Despite having what we're told was a stellar preseason pre covid. 

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9th flatters us. Some of the trash we've served up has been deplorable. Such as the one on the weekend. The lack of defensive pressure in a lot of our games is a systemic culture thing. 

No-one should be mentioning the close losses as we also had close wins against Carlton and gold coast.

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3 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

9th flatters us. Some of the trash we've served up has been deplorable. Such as the one on the weekend. The lack of defensive pressure in a lot of our games is a systemic culture thing. 

No-one should be mentioning the close losses as we also had close wins against Carlton and gold coast.

It neither flatters or derides us, it is what it is.

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13 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

This week I have added # of days between games shown as (x) for each game.  I've also added (F) for flights for the 7th and 8th spots contenders.

Interesting that in many cases a bye isn't really a bye.  The break for a bye ranges from 7 days to 12 days.

image.png.1f3c96a8cbafb18ee729aba331be4720.png

Final 8 Contenders:

  • 7th Collingwood:  Almost there
  • 8th Bulldogs:  can still miss the 8 as they have a tough run home.  They are on 7 wins and need to win at least two of their last 4 to be safe; two of which are vs Cats and Eagles.  They will fancy themselves vs Hawks and Freo.
  • 9th Demons, 10th Blues and 11th Giants sit outside the 8, all on six wins with 5 games yet to play:
    • We have a good %'age altho that can be lost quite quickly as the loss of 6% at the weekend showed. 
    • I don't see any clear %'age boosting games for us whereas the Blues and Giants play the Crows. 
    • After this week all 3 teams have two 5 day breaks and one 4 day break
    • The travel gods are really favouring Carlton (and Collingwood) as they have no flights in their run to round 17, whereas we fly each week.
    • Freo play Bulldogs, Dees and Giants.  They are on a roll, have conceded miserly scores so could easily determine who makes it. 

Not sure about Collingwood yet.

If they lose to Carlton this week, their final three games are against Brisbane, Port and Gold Coast. Without their injured stars, they'll be hard-pressed to beat Brisbane (in Brisbane) or Port and that just gets them to 9.5. Makes their game vs Carlton this weekend an absolutely critical match for both sides.

If Carlton lose, and assuming they also lose to Brisbane in the final round, they'll need to win their other three games just to get to 9 wins. That requires a win over the Giants: hard to read them but on current form, given that game is next week, you'd back Carlton in. As you've mentioned though, Carlton still have their Adelaide game to come which will help them with percentage.

If GWS loses to Fremantle this week, then their final round game vs St Kilda becomes huge, but assuming they lose to St Kilda too, like Carlton they'll need to win all three remaining games to get to .

The Carlton-Collingwood game is critical. If Carlton win, Collingwood's path to 9.5 becomes really tough, and puts us in a good spot to finish the year ahead of them even with only 9 wins. But it will then give Carlton a good chance to get to 10.

That's a very long way of saying that if we beat St Kilda this weekend we'll be in with a good chance, but if we lose it's almost curtains for us.

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Wow, I knew this was a tough ask but looking at the chart I'm even more depressed. Can you really see this team winning 4 from 5? I'll live in hope but gun to head I'd say we're winning 2 maybe 3 at best from that bunch. Something you'd expect from a perfectly average team. 

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Really hard to predict especially with a lot of 8 point games coming up for us and our opponents vying for the last few spots in the finals ... However I do think 8th spot this year will have 9 wins with a decent %. 

Finals really do open up to us if we can knock off the saints this week. Just hoping GWS are still a table in 3 weeks time. 

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On 8/24/2020 at 9:31 PM, Lucifer's Hero said:

This week I have added # of days between games shown as (x) for each game.  I've also added (F) for flights for the 7th and 8th spots contenders.

Interesting that in many cases a bye isn't really a bye.  The break for a bye ranges from 7 days to 12 days.

image.png.1f3c96a8cbafb18ee729aba331be4720.png

Final 8 Contenders:

  • 7th Collingwood:  Almost there
  • 8th Bulldogs:  can still miss the 8 as they have a tough run home.  They are on 7 wins and need to win at least two of their last 4 to be safe; two of which are vs Cats and Eagles.  They will fancy themselves vs Hawks and Freo.
  • 9th Demons, 10th Blues and 11th Giants sit outside the 8, all on six wins with 5 games yet to play:
    • We have a good %'age altho that can be lost quite quickly as the loss of 6% at the weekend showed. 
    • I don't see any clear %'age boosting games for us whereas the Blues and Giants play the Crows. 
    • After this week all 3 teams have two 5 day breaks and one 4 day break
    • The travel gods are really favouring Carlton (and Collingwood) as they have no flights in their run to round 17, whereas we fly each week.
    • Freo play Bulldogs, Dees and Giants.  They are on a roll, have conceded miserly scores so could easily determine who makes it. 

One aspect that you have missed here Lucifer is that if we beat St Kilda this week, they are all of a sudden very venerable and a high chance of missing finals as they have one less game still to play and come up against West Coast, Hawthorn and GWS.

Beyond keeping our season alive, I'd love to beat St Kilda this week, just to [censored] their season up like they have to us in seasons gone by like 2018.

Actually think St Kilda are somewhat over rated looking at where they currently sit and there's really no reason we should be so scared of them as an opponent.

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