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THE RUN HOME 2020


Whispering_Jack
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1 hour ago, DeePressed said:

V StKilda Loss

V Sydney Win

V Freo Win

V GWS Loss

V Essendon Loss

Apologies, just woke up with disappointment expectation syndrome. Or it's chronic...

I think Sydney will be tough to win.  Not because they are better but the travel we have to do.  Alice is on Sat night and we fly straight out meaning players get back to hub in the early hours of Sunday morning.  Syd fly to Cairns from Adelaide early Sat evening.

On Thur morning we fly to Carins for the 4.40pm Sydney game.  The extra hours/night rest Syd get may not be a lot but throw in our same day flight and the fatigue might start to kick in.   Generally, Syd beat us by having a player outside the pack to receive and run the ball fwd.  If we aren't prepared for it nor spread quickly we will be playing catch up.

The next game vs Freo is 4 days later and also a challenge.  They are on a role and are giving up miserly scores against.  They have an extra day rest and don't travel.   Any travel advantage will depend whether we stay in Cairns after the Sydney game or fly back to Maroochydore and fly back to Carins for the Freo game.  Hopefully sanity prevails and we stay in Cairns giving us a travel breather.

St Kilda is massive as it is an 8-pt game.  They won't leave anything on the park as they have a bye after the game.  As noted above our travel/break schedule is quite gruelling.  Hopefully our players also give it their all and not try to 'preserve' themselves.

GWS is the other 8-pt game for us.

tbh I don't see any definite wins.  But then we could win all 5!

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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8 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I think Sydney will be tough to win.  Not because they are better but the travel we have to do.  Alice is on Sat night and we fly straight out meaning players get back to hub in the early hours of Sunday morning.  Syd fly to Cairns from Adelaide early Sat evening.

On Thur morning we fly to Carins for the 4.40pm Sydney game.  The extra hours/night rest Syd get may not be a lot but throw in our same day flight and the fatigue might start to kick in.   Generally, Syd beat us by having a player outside the pack to receive and run the ball fwd.  If we aren't prepared for it nor spread quickly we will be playing catch up.

The next game vs Freo is 4 days later and also a challenge.  They are on a role and are giving up miserly scores against.  They have an extra day rest and don't travel.   Any travel advantage will depend whether we stay in Cairns after the Sydney game or fly back to Maroochydore and fly back to Carins for the Freo game.  Hopefully sanity prevails and we stay in Cairns giving us a travel breather.

tbh I don't see any definite wins.  But then we could win all 5!

St Kilda is massive as it is an 8-pt game.  As is GWS.

Good points! Especially if we win v Saints.

I'm hoping for a 5 win streak but I can see us trying too hard and coughing it up = Saints play checkers over and over again like Q3 v Dogs. We seem to play terribly against them. Happy to look like a fool.

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1 hour ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Actually think St Kilda are somewhat over rated looking at where they currently sit and there's really no reason we should be so scared of them as an opponent.

Yeah, but they have beaten some of the big boys in Richmond and Port away, the latter of whom were flying at the time.

As much as we all hate them, they'll have earned their spot in the finals.

 

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1 hour ago, DeePressed said:

V StKilda Loss

V Sydney Win

V Freo Win

V GWS Loss

V Essendon Loss

Apologies, just woke up with disappointment expectation syndrome. Or it's chronic...

If we lose to GWS and Essendon the way they have been travelling this season heads will roll!

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I reckon we can and will beat the aints.

What worries me, is that the Bullies (who I believe are underrated by many here) will steamroll the Cats and still remain a game clear of us.

Bullies at $2.50 on Sportsbet is not a bad investment.

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2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Yeah, but they have beaten some of the big boys in Richmond and Port away, the latter of whom were flying at the time.

As much as we all hate them, they'll have earned their spot in the finals.

 

I have to admit, I don’t hate the Saints. I rather admire them this year how they’ve gone about it keeping up some very impressive intensity in there games. 

I agree that they deserve to play finals and as I can’t see us beating them this week.

Our key weapon (Max) is returning from injury and wil be smashed from pillar to post by Marshall and Ryder who are both in good form.

Either of those ruckman will then rest forward stretching our defence which I don’t think will be handle King, Membrey, Butler and Billing’s.

The only way we’ll win is if our midfield really dominates but not sure if that’s likely.

We should beat Sydney and Fremantle easily and I think we can take GWS.

My big fear is then the bombers last round. Not just because I despise them more than any other team, not because most of my mates are bombers supporters who’d love to destroy our finals chances again but because I think people forget they can play.

I enjoyed nothing more than seeing some crap the bed for the last month but it is hard to win matches with 50% of your salary cap out.

They’ll be a completely different team with Joey back in and I really wish we got the chance to play them earlier when they were filth like, well, how ‘the filth’ were filth when we played them.

 

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2 hours ago, Skuit said:

Poor efforts against the Saints cost us in all of 2016, 2017, and 2018 in my mind. Please get it done this time boys. Go Dees!

This time the role is a little reversed as they are the ones higher on the ladder and probably been playing the better footy across the board. I think it’s times we got one back on them. 

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10 hours ago, Skuit said:

Poor efforts against the Saints cost us in all of 2016, 2017, and 2018 in my mind. Please get it done this time boys. Go Dees!

You're dead right mate about St Kilda ruining our recent seasons. I can't see it changing this weekend.

2016 we got schooled by them twice. Win both of those, have a small loss to Geelong in round 23 (as opposed to the 110 pt loss) and we play finals.

2018 was even worse. They were a complete dumpster fire that year, and yet put 120 points on us in a horrid mid season game. Absolutely no good reason for that happening, particularly given that we were rolling after kicking the first 3 goals of the game. Cost us 3rd place that year. Would've avoided WC in the prelim.

2017 we beat them twice but we'll just ignore that for discussion purposes.

 

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2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

You're dead right mate about St Kilda ruining our recent seasons. I can't see it changing this weekend.

2016 we got schooled by them twice. Win both of those, have a small loss to Geelong in round 23 (as opposed to the 110 pt loss) and we play finals.

2018 was even worse. They were a complete dumpster fire that year, and yet put 120 points on us in a horrid mid season game. Absolutely no good reason for that happening, particularly given that we were rolling after kicking the first 3 goals of the game. Cost us 3rd place that year. Would've avoided WC in the prelim.

2017 we beat them twice but we'll just ignore that for discussion purposes.

 

Haha. Round 22: we up up by 40 points early in the second quarter and let them back into it. Missed out on finals by 0.5%

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3 hours ago, Skuit said:

Haha. Round 22: we up up by 40 points early in the second quarter and let them back into it. Missed out on finals by 0.5%

Yep. 6.3 to 1.1 at quarter time in front of 50,000+ people on a Sunday arvo. Remember it well.

Didn't go on with it from there (8.9 to 9.11 from then on).

Was also the game we made fun of them by talking about us making finals and them missing. Then we missed the finals. Brought serious bad karma.

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So just for a bit if a change of pace - a few interesting questions:

1. Will Adelaide win another game this season and/or when was the last time a team went through the entire season winless?  (Even at our 2007 - 2016 decade of pain, the least games we won in a season was 2 and you need to go back to 1919 for a winless MFC season)

2.  Which one of Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide or Freo is the team most likely to cause an upset which will shape the eight and which team other than us will it happen against?

 

As an asides, they may be above us on the ladder right now, but I think Essendon's season is DonE.  It will either be a game for pride just them or both the EFC and the MFC come rd 18.  I actually suspect our season will be alive, but their's won't be.

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On 8/27/2020 at 10:01 AM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Yeah, but they have beaten some of the big boys in Richmond and Port away, the latter of whom were flying at the time.

As much as we all hate them, they'll have earned their spot in the finals.

 

While the above is somewhat true, St Kilda's win/loss record and percentage says they are around the same mark as us.  If we beat them tonight, I think it will put us pretty close to level pegging with them when you consider we have a game in hand and they have WC next week (whom I'm glad were beaten by Richmond).

While it's true that the beat Richmond and Port, they were also beaten by North & Collingwood (by 44 points) and Fremantle.  Where we had a loss to Geelong within a few points, St Kilda were thrashed by around 60, similar to our pantsing by Port.

I neither totally respect or disrespect St Kilda, but I don't think we should be scared or intimidated by any apparent strength of theirs either.  Tonight will be the ultimate test of where the two teams are with respects to one another and I'm hoping we can turn around our game from last week and get the job done. 

They haven't earnt their spot in finals yet, neither have we, but both of us still have a pretty decient oppertunity to over what remains of the season.

Edited by Rodney (Balls) Grinter
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Given our percentage I reckon 3 wins will do it from here as long as the loss is not a blowout which you would not expect. 

I doubt any of the teams in the running will win all their remaining matches when you look at the fixture and when you consider the short breaks. 

Saints on very shaky ground now. 

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If Pies lose today they are also vulnerable for the 8 which means spots 6, 7 and 8 are up for grabs.

As I see it Giants, Saints, Bulldogs and Carlton (if they win today) will end up with 9 wins if they beat the teams they are 'supposed' to beat.  Pies will have 9.5 or 10.5 wins and Dees with 10 wins if we beat those we are 'supposed' to beat.  Of course the script doesn't go that way - there will be 'upsets'.

Saints play Hawks and Giants play the Crows so will be looking for %age boosts from those games.

If the battle for 8th is close at the last round it may come down to the round 18 Saints vs Giants game.  So, to be on the safe side 10 wins will do it.  Don't want a 2017 scenario where we had to sweat on another team's result to get in based on % if a bunch of teams are on 9 wins.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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I think it's fair to say the top 5 are locked in and spots 6-8 are up for grabs, with seven teams in contention (St Kilda, Collingwood, GWS, Melbourne, Bulldogs, Carlton, Essendon). 

10 should be enough, which means the next two games are huge for us. Win them both and we're in the box seat from there.

If we drop either of the next two, we'll have partly undone the hard work we did to beat St Kilda. But because the final two games are against our competitors, if we win even one of them, and finish on 9 wins, we can still make it.

GWS right now looks to be our toughest opponent left. I'm concerned they are going to find form and make a big charge for the finals. Who knows if yesterday was the start of that charge or just a one-off 

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For mine Ess and Blues are mathematically able to make the 8 but that is it.  So, I've left them off the chart.  The chart still shows the required wins as 9 but realistically I think it could be 10.  See below.

The only significant game among the top 4 is the Rich/Cats game in rnd 17 which may well determine who misses the top 4.

 

 

The %'ages are virtually identical for Pies, Saints and Demons.

image.png.ede2cb6d4833ad9333e0cb6ee477eaf5.png

Based on the 'should' wins the battle for 6 - 8 should will likely play out as:

  • Giants 11 wins (I have them beating beat the Saints)
  • Dees 10 wins (I have us losing to the Giants)
  • Pies 9.5 wins
  • Saints 9
  • Bulldogs 9 wins

I think the Giants are safe to be 6th.  It leaves the other 4 to fight it out for spots 7/8. 

To be on the safe side we need 10 wins to avoid a 2017 situation sweating it out for %'age in the last round.  We will need to beat Ess in round 18 to get that 10th win otherwise we will be sweating it out for %'age at the end of that round.

Giants play Saints in the last round, we play Ess which is a must win so round 18 games are absolutely huge.

Well that's all the theory.  In the meantime, one week at a time!

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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2 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

For mine Ess and Blues are mathematically able to make the 8 but that is it.  So, I've left them off the chart.

The only significant game among the top 4 is the Rich/Cats game in rnd 17 which may well determine who misses the top 4.

image.png.dfd1b274b85d233f81716b95c3afb446.png

 

The %'ages are virtually identical for Pies, Saints and Demons.

As I said in the post above based I think it will take 10 wins to be safe but 9 might do it. 

 

Was just playing with ladder predictor and I cant find a realistic scenario where 9 wins will make it, but of course there could be some strange upsets.

Edited by Pickett2Jackson
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5 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

 

Was just playing with ladder predictor and I cant find a realistic scenario where 9 wins will make it, but of course there could be some strange upsets.

I agree as Coll have the draw so 9.5 will most likely get them over the line so very hard for 9 wins to get it done.  But who knows.  All I know is there is no room for us to falter.

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42 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

 

Was just playing with ladder predictor and I cant find a realistic scenario where 9 wins will make it, but of course there could be some strange upsets.

Saints lose to Eagles and Giants.  Dogs lose to Eagles. We win 2.

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1 hour ago, Pollyanna said:

Saints lose to Eagles and Giants.  Dogs lose to Eagles. We win 2.

Yep this is the 9-win scenario. St Kilda and the Dogs could very, very easily finish on 9.

A lot depends on whether the Giants have turned a corner and are back, or if it was just a one-off against a flat Freo. If it's the former, the Giants will finish above us given their soft draw.

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I agree as Coll have the draw so 9.5 will most likely get them over the line so very hard for 9 wins to get it done.  But who knows.  All I know is there is no room for us to falter.

Collingwood have to beat one of Port or Brisbane to get to 9.5 (assuming they beat GC).

They won't get many of their stars back for the Brisbane game next week, but they traditionally play well against Brisbane. If they lose that, they'll have to beat Port in the final round to get to 9.5. No guarantee there.

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