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THE RUN HOME 2020


Whispering_Jack
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As much as I hope we beat both Dogs and St Kilda, I think we can absolute afford to lose one of those games, as long as we take care of Sydney, Freo and Essendon who all should be done and dusted by  the time we play them. We can then afford to lose to GWS and finish the season 10-7 with a good percentage and highly likely to play finals.

Beat both the Dogs and Saints and we'd have to fall over ourselves to miss the finals.

Lost to both the Dogs and Saints and I'd say it's curtains for us.

 

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Should we take care of the Dogs on the weekend then I think we're effectively down to 9 teams vying for 8 places. Richmond beating GWS this week should help our cause there. We can forget about a top 4 place and the double chance that goes with it so should concentrate on who else are likely to finish in the 5-8 bracket with us and which of them we'd fancy our chances against if we're to make the second round of the finals. 

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We've got a tight fixture between 14-17 with 4 games in 15 days,  but it looks like our opponents are the same.  


- GWS (r17) play on the same day as us in both r14-16, so neither side disadvantaged.


- Freo (r16) have 1 day extra break from r15 but they need to travel to Cairns, and their r14 game is the same day as ours, so we both play 3 in 9 days (rr14-r16)


-Swans (r15) have the same break as us from r14

 

Pretty happy with this,  because the uneven breaks have caused one sided contests.

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1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

As much as I hope we beat both Dogs and St Kilda, I think we can absolute afford to lose one of those games, as long as we take care of Sydney, Freo and Essendon who all should be done and dusted by  the time we play them. We can then afford to lose to GWS and finish the season 10-7 with a good percentage and highly likely to play finals.

Beat both the Dogs and Saints and we'd have to fall over ourselves to miss the finals.

Lost to both the Dogs and Saints and I'd say it's curtains for us.

 

I’d much prefer to beat teams either in the eight or vying for the eight than beat up on teams whose seasons are finished. What confidence would we have in our team with that type of form ?

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20 hours ago, ding said:

Back yourself LH.

The team is confident in their footy and fitness.

Im confident we will make the finals and Jones will make it to 300 games.

 

(well, maybe not 100% confident about Jonesy)

Jonesy is playing pretty good footy atm though, much better than l thought he was capable of at this stage of his career. Some of the intensity he showed on Saturday l thought was outstanding, even showed flashes of speed. It will be an intense discussion around the selection table if we do make it to the finals. 
 

Got to get past the Dogs first though, which will not be easy given our past record.

Go Dees!

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1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

As much as I hope we beat both Dogs and St Kilda, I think we can absolute afford to lose one of those games, as long as we take care of Sydney, Freo and Essendon who all should be done and dusted by  the time we play them. We can then afford to lose to GWS and finish the season 10-7 with a good percentage and highly likely to play finals.

Beat both the Dogs and Saints and we'd have to fall over ourselves to miss the finals.

Lost to both the Dogs and Saints and I'd say it's curtains for us.

 

I think that's probably right.

If we lose both it's not curtains, but it will require us to either belt some sides to get to 9-8 with a huge percentage and hope that's enough to squeeze into 8th, or win out in our final four games to get to 10-7.

We can win all four of Fremantle, Sydney, GWS and Essendon, but each one is a banana peel in some way. 

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11 minutes ago, 58er said:

What about Carlton ?

Carlton have to play Brisbane in the last round.They also have the Giants and the Suns. Their other 3 games are Swans, Pies and Crows.

Given they are only on five wins can't see them wining five out of 6 to get to the magical ten wins. Their % is okay but below the surrounding teams so 9 wins may not be enough.

If they beat the Suns this week the Pies match in 2 weeks will be enormous.

MFCSS alert if we have to beat the Bombers to get into the 8 to protect us from a win by Blues against Lions in that final round.

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2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Correct: if Carlton beat GC they'll remain one game behind us if we win, and will draw level with us if we lose (and we don't have a game in hand over them as they've had a bye).

Maybe down to %!!!

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This is what lies ahead -

1 PORT ADELAIDE Played 12, 36 pts, 127.5% 

TO COME: Hawthorn Sydney Bye North Melbourne Essendon Collingwood 

2 BRISBANE LIONS Played 12, 36 pts, 118.3% 

TO COME St Kilda Bye Collingwood Gold Coast Sydney Carlton 

3 GEELONG Played 12, 32 pts, 138.5% 

TO COME Adelaide Western Bulldogs Bye Essendon Richmond Sydney

4 WEST COAST Played 11, 32 pts, 121.1%

TO COME GWS Giants  Richmond Essendon Western Bulldogs St Kilda North Melbourne

5 ST KILDA Played 12, 32 pts, 115.8%

TO COME Brisbane Lions Melbourne Bye Hawthorn West Coast GWS Giants 

6 RICHMOND Played 12, 30 pts, 119.0% 

TO COME Essendon West Coast Fremantle Bye Geelong Adelaide 

7 COLLINGWOOD Played 12, 26 pts, 104.9% 

TO COME North Melbourne  Carlton Brisbane Lions Bye Gold Coast Port Adelaide

8 MELBOURNE Played 11, 24 points, 118.2% 

TO COME Western Bulldogs St Kilda Sydney Fremantle GWS Giants Essendon 

9 GWS GIANTS Played 11, 24 pts, 98.2% 

TO COME West Coast Carlton Adelaide Fremantle Melbourne St Kilda

10 W. BULLDOGS Played 12, 24 points, 97.9% 

TO COME Melbourne Geelong Bye Hawthorn West Coast  Fremantle 

11 ESSENDON Played 11, 22 points, 86.1% 

TO COME Richmond Hawthorn Geelong West Coast Port Adelaide Melbourne

12 CARLTON Played 11, 20 points, 95.5% 

TO COME Gold Coast Collingwood GWS Giants Sydney Adelaide Brisbane Lions

13 GOLD COAST Played 12, 18 points, 98.0%

TO COME Carlton Brisbane Lions North Melbourne Bye Collingwood Hawthorn

14 FREMANTLE Played 11, 16 points, 88.3% 

TO COME Sydney GWS 
Giants Richmond Melbourne North Melbourne Western Bulldogs 

15 SYDNEY Played 11, 16 points, 84.8% 

TO COME Fremantle Port Adelaide  Melbourne Carlton Brisbane Lions  Geelong

16 HAWTHORN Played 11, 16 points, 82.5%

TO COME Port Adelaide Essendon Adelaide St Kilda Western Bulldogs Gold Coast 

17 NORTH MELBOURNE Played 12, 12 points, 83.1% 

TO COME Collingwood Gold Coast Bye Port Adelaide Fremantle West Coast

18 ADELAIDE Played 12, 0 points, 54.7% 

TO COME Geelong Bye Hawthorn GWS Giants Carlton Richmond

I think it’s safe to say that it’s highly unlikely that Melbourne will figure in the top 4

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Updated the Run Home Table for rnd 12.

In this version, I've included byes and timed the rest of the fixture.

image.png.0646a0209967c4f64f112652ed879ce5.png

Note: some teams have played 11 games, some 12 depending on their bye.

Am thinking 9 games might be enough to make the 8.  But I've left the table with 10 wins needed for this week. 

If it turns out to be 9 wins it gives the Pies an edge with their drawn game.  It will depend how quickly they get their injured players back.  They have a bye which will help.

There is a very good chance the Giants will lose to the Eagles this week.   If we beat the Bulldogs we put a game and % gap to our nearest competition.   If it turns out that 9 wins is enough we need to win 3 from 6. 

Essendon are done!

Everything has to go right for Carl to make the 8.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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Dating back to 2014, the average number of wins for the 8th placed team after 18 rounds is 9.6 wins. So we assume with 1 bye, rounding up on average 10 wins, 7 losses at the end of round 18 nets you 8th place. 

So if we end the season 4-2 we should make it so long as we can maintain a health percentage. 

Will be tight for a LOT of teams. So 8-9 wins might actually do it this year.

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2 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Updated the Run Home Table for rnd 12.

In this version, I've included byes and timed the rest of the fixture.

image.png.0646a0209967c4f64f112652ed879ce5.png

Note: some teams have played 11 games, some 12 depending on their bye .

Am thinking 9 games might be enough to make the 8.  But I've left the table with 10 wins needed for this week. 

If it turns out to be 9 wins it gives the Pies an edge with their draw.  It will depend how quickly they get their injured players back.  They have a bye which will help.

There is a good chance the Giants will lose to the Eagles this week.   If we beat the Bulldogs we put a game and % gap to our nearest competition. 

Essendon are done!

Everything has to go right for Carl to make the 8.

This week is huge.

If we win and West Coast wins, we'll be a game and percentage clear of the Dogs and they'll only have four games left. Which means for every win we get in our last 5, they need 2 more wins to pass us. And they have Geelong and West Coast still to come. Which gives us a great chance to ensure we've got the Dogs covered.

Would absolutely love Gold Coast to get over Carlton this Friday. 

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Been playing with the old ladder predictor and i think 3 more wins and 9 in total with our healthy % should see us finish in the top 8 given the poor form/injuries of the pies and the challenging draw of the Giants. 

I also think there is a chance the Saints could drop out of the 8 which would be a disaster for them

so if we beat Fremantle, Sydney and Essendon which we really should, we SHOULD be playing finals footy. 

one more win on top of that and we're just about a lock. 

in saying that, we're good enough to win 6/6 as none of these games are worse than 50/50 games and that would give us a serious chance at sneaking in to the top 4 with 12 wins depending on other results. 

This is the type of year where the team with the best form/healthiest list is a good chance to win the flag. 

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fwiw the Fox final 8 is:  https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-the-run-home-fixture-analysis-predicted-ladder-predicted-top-eight-after-round-12-finals-week-1-projections/news-story/00ad577a4478fbe03e624f3b72776423

  • 1. Port Adelaide (12.65 projected wins)
  • 2. Brisbane Lions (12.15)
  • 3. Geelong Cats (11.35) [higher percentage than Eagles]
  • 4. West Coast Eagles (11.85) [lower percentage than Cats]
  • 5. Richmond (10.75)
  • 6. St Kilda (10.7)
  • 7. Melbourne (9.4)
  • 8. GWS Giants (9)

And those that miss are:

  • 9. Collingwood (8.9)
  • 10. Western Bulldogs (8.45)
  • 11. Carlton (7.95)
  • 12. Essendon (7.55)

Giants are a rabble and until they get Toby Greene back they will struggle, so I can see them falling out and Pies going in.

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On 8/14/2020 at 3:34 PM, Lucifer's Hero said:

Below is a table to summarise 'Wins Needed' and 'Games Left' in the run home.  It assumes 10 games required to make the 8.

 

Fwiw, I think it's quite plausible that one or even two teams will make finals with just nine wins.

EDIT: I see in your update last night you said you now think nine is enough.

Edited by Rogue
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An interesting thing is that if we make finals the team we play in wk 1 will be one of the teams we just played or play leading up to the finals (except) Richmond.

We beat the Pies so its critical we beat Bulldgos, Saints, Giants and Essendon just to get the psychological edge for a finals meeting.

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The AFL hasn't said if there will be a pre finals bye.  We probably won't know until they decide where the GF will be and if in Perth whether the WA gov't will relax the mandatory 14 day quarantine. 

If WA quarantine is required the AFL will most likely schedule the bye the week before the GF. 

If GF is in Qld there may or may not be a bye at all.  Because 6 of the top 8 teams have a bye in the next 6 rounds I think it is less likely there will be a pre finals bye.  Eagles and Demons have had their byes. 

We won't win all our next 6 games so each will be do-or-die.  So not having a pre finals bye will really hurt our chances.

It is critical we go all out to win the next 3 (Bulldogs, Saints, Freo) so we can consider resting players in the last few rounds, if no pre finals bye is scheduled.

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12 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

fwiw the Fox final 8 is:  https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-the-run-home-fixture-analysis-predicted-ladder-predicted-top-eight-after-round-12-finals-week-1-projections/news-story/00ad577a4478fbe03e624f3b72776423

  • 1. Port Adelaide (12.65 projected wins)
  • 2. Brisbane Lions (12.15)
  • 3. Geelong Cats (11.35) [higher percentage than Eagles]
  • 4. West Coast Eagles (11.85) [lower percentage than Cats]
  • 5. Richmond (10.75)
  • 6. St Kilda (10.7)
  • 7. Melbourne (9.4)
  • 8. GWS Giants (9)

And those that miss are:

  • 9. Collingwood (8.9)
  • 10. Western Bulldogs (8.45)
  • 11. Carlton (7.95)
  • 12. Essendon (7.55)

Giants are a rabble and until they get Toby Greene back they will struggle, so I can see them falling out and Pies going in.

So if we win all our remaining games we should finish top 4...

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