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THE RUN HOME 2020


Whispering_Jack
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The Herald Sun looks at every team’s run home. Looking at the list, I think the top eight will remain unchanged :-

THE RUN HOME FOR YOUR CLUB

1 PORT ADELAIDE Played 10, 32 pts, 144.7% 

TO COME Richmond  Geelong Hawthorn Collingwood Essendon North Melbourne Sydney 

2 ST KILDA Played 10, 28 pts, 123.0% 

TO COME Geelong Essendon Brisbane GWS Giants Hawthorn Melbourne West Coast

3 BRISBANE LIONS Played 10, 28 pts, 117.9% 

TO COME Western Bulldogs North Melbourne St Kilda Carlton Collingwood Gold Coast Sydney

4 RICHMOND Played 10, 26 pts, 123.4% 

TO COME Port Adelaide Gold Coast Essendon Adelaide Fremantle Geelong West Coast

5 GEELONG Played 10, 24 pts, 122.2% 

TO COME St Kilda Port Adelaide Adelaide Essendon Richmond Sydney Western Bulldogs

6 WEST COAST Played 9, 24 pts, 114.8% 

TO COME Carlton Hawthorn GWS Giants Essendon North Melbourne Richmond St Kilda Western Bulldogs

7 GWS GIANTS Played 10, 24 pts, 104.7% 

TO COME Sydney West Coast Adelaide Carlton Fremantle Melbourne St Kilda

8 COLLINGWOOD Played 10, 22 pts, 112.5% 

TO COME Adelaide Melbourne North Melbourne Brisbane Carlton Gold Coast Port Adelaide

9 W. BULLDOGS Played 10, 20 points, 92.2% 

TO COME Brisbane Adelaide Melbourne Fremantle Geelong Hawthorn West Coast

10 ESSENDON Played 9, 20 points, 88.7% 

TO COME Gold Coast St Kilda Richmond Geelong Hawthorn Melbourne Port Adelaide West Coast

11 GOLD COAST Played 10, 16 points, 101% 

TO COME Essendon Richmond Carlton Brisbane Collingwood Hawthorn North Melbourne

12 MELBOURNE Played 9, 16 points, 100% 

TO COME North Melbourne Collingwood Western Bulldogs Essendon Fremantle GWS Giants St Kilda Sydney

13 CARLTON Played 9, 16 points, 97.6% 

TO COME West Coast Fremantle Gold Coast Adelaide Brisbane Lions Collingwood GWS Giants Sydney

14 HAWTHORN Played 9, 16 points, 86.6% 

TO COME Fremantle West Coast Port Adelaide Adelaide Essendon Gold Coast St Kilda Western Bulldogs

15 NORTH MELB 

Played 10, 12 points, 88.1% 

TO COME Melbourne Brisbane Collingwood Fremantle Gold Coast Port Adelaide West Coast

16 FREMANTLE Played 9, 12 points, 84.6% 

TO COME Hawthorn Carlton Sydney GWS Giants Melbourne North Melbourne Richmond Western Bulldogs

17 SYDNEY Played 10, 12 points, 78.2% 

TO COME GWS Giants Fremantle Brisbane Lions Carlton Geelong Melbourne Port Adelaide 

18 ADELAIDE Played 10, 0 points, 55.1% 

TO COME Collingwood Western Bulldogs Geelong Carlton GWS Giants Hawthorn Richmond
 

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9 minutes ago, Elwood 3184 said:

Every week there are close games but we are going to absolutely rue the games lost to Geelong and Brisbane.

I don't know they were tough teams. We have already played the top 5 teams so we now get a favorable draw. We could win every one of them but can only afford to lose just one of those games.

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49 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

The Herald Sun looks at every team’s run home. Looking at the list, I think the top eight will remain unchanged :-

THE RUN HOME FOR YOUR CLUB

12 MELBOURNE Played 9, 16 points, 100% 

TO COME North Melbourne Collingwood Western Bulldogs Essendon Fremantle GWS Giants St Kilda Sydney

Yes, we'll need to go 6-2 and even then we might not make it.

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Based on that list I'd say there are only two dead certs to play finals (based on reaching 10 wins) and they are Port Adelaide and Brisbane with Richmond also being likely. WC could be considered likely too but will be travelling back to Queensland to play many of those games where their form is questionable. Looking at St Kilda's run home I don't think you could say with any certainty that they'd definitely win any of them.

If we make the big assumption that we'll beat North tomorrow then I think it's imperative we win as many of the games against our main competitors for a place in the 8 along the way. 

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21 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

5 GEELONG Played 10, 24 pts, 122.2% 

 

TO COME St Kilda Port Adelaide Adelaide Essendon Richmond Sydney Western Bulldogs

7 GWS GIANTS Played 10, 24 pts, 104.7% 

TO COME Sydney West Coast Adelaide Carlton Fremantle Melbourne St Kilda

8 COLLINGWOOD Played 10, 22 pts, 112.5% 

TO COME Adelaide Melbourne North Melbourne Brisbane Carlton Gold Coast Port Adelaide

12 MELBOURNE Played 9, 16 points, 100% 

TO COME North Melbourne Collingwood Western Bulldogs Essendon Fremantle GWS Giants St Kilda Sydney

There's the three I think could drop out of the eight.  Our main rival to climb into the eight is of course the Bulldogs. (Because Essendon will implode at some point and Gold Coast will inevitably finish a respectable, promising 10th-ish ready to pick up their folllow-up set of priority picks).

We need to pick up two wins, or, one win plus the 'game in hand' win, in comparison to just one of those three teams. We directly play against the two most vulnerable teams currently in the eight.

Strangely, the only remaining 'scalp' we can aim to take is St Kilda.  Other than that we are playing low-ladder teams and a string of proverbial 8-point games.

Heh, even stranger, it is realistic to expect to make the eight based on only a minor improvement to our current form. 

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Some fella called into ABC radio footy show and said that he heard Gil say our bombers game will be held between round 15 and 16. Nothing on the AL website so sounds a bit unlikely, but who knows

Edited by binman
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28 minutes ago, binman said:

On?

And what does that actually mean?

Possibly in Round 15 but it doesn’t matter. Every club is going to end up with one bye in 2020. The Essendon v Melbourne game from Round 3 has been designated as the “bye” for both clubs which means they can be drawn against each other in any future AFL round. 

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33 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Champion Data has updated its future fixture rankings. We've had the third hardest fixture to date (in terms of opponents played) and continue to have the easiest remaining fixture:

https://twitter.com/championdata/status/1291936545163763713?s=20

The thing about future fixture rankings, a lot depends on where the clubs are drawn to play. I hope therefore that Melbourne isn’t sent to play Fremantle in Perth given that it hasn’t had a single instance of true home ground advantage once this year, been moved from hub to hub and has already been sent to WA once to play the Eagles. 

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12 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Possibly in Round 15 but it doesn’t matter. Every club is going to end up with one bye in 2020. The Essendon v Melbourne game from Round 3 has been designated as the “bye” for both clubs which means they can be drawn against each other in any future AFL round. 

But does that mean it creates a short break between games either side of it?

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53 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

The thing about future fixture rankings, a lot depends on where the clubs are drawn to play. I hope therefore that Melbourne isn’t sent to play Fremantle in Perth given that it hasn’t had a single instance of true home ground advantage once this year, been moved from hub to hub and has already been sent to WA once to play the Eagles. 

Absolutely agree.

That metric looks only at opponent. Doesn't look at venue, or shortness of breaks, or anything like that, and it gives teams the same "difficulty" rating for each opponent (i.e. Collingwood are rated as being as "difficult" an opponent to us as they will be to Adelaide, despite Adelaide being 0-10 and us 4-5).

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I follow the live ladder here quite frequently as it’s a pretty good with the end of season predictions.

https://www.liveladders.com/AFL/

Has us finishing 9th with no changes to the current 8.

I can’t see the top 4 losing enough to drop out but I’m thinking the saints will still finish 5-8. I’m fairly confident that the Eagles will be there again. GWS will make finals with there talent as well.

I can see the filth dropping back mainly due there key injuries. I had them as top 4 at the start of the year and possibly Geelong with some tough games.

Obviosuly vs the Roos is a must win but we have a couple 8 point games coming up against the filth and GWS.

I think we should be looking at pinching the Cats or Pies spot this year and will definitely be cheering against them more than usual. 

 

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Remaining Round 11 Games:

  • Tonight:  Cats vs Saints and Dockers vs Hawks
  • Tuesday night:  Crows vs Pies
  • Wednesday night:  Suns vs Ess

We are 9th on the ladder.  Have bolded the teams I would like to see lose to max our chances of overtaking them or be further ahead of them to make the 8.

The next three weeks are critical as we play Pies, Bulldogs and probably Ess (in Alice, a real Home game).  All are 8 - point games and all immensely winnable.

Dare I dream that after round 14 we are 8/5 ??

With so many 8-point games and lack of consistency among many teams will 9 wins be enough to make finals?

In rounds 15 to 18 we play: Freo, GWS, Saints and Swans.  I reckon we can get 9 or 10 wins.  Finals here we come?

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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19 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Remaining Round 11 Games:

  • Tonight:  Cats vs Saints and Dockers vs Hawks
  • Tuesday night:  Crows vs Pies
  • Wednesday night:  Suns vs Ess

We are 9th on the ladder.  Have bolded the teams I would like to see lose to max our chances of overtaking them or be further ahead of them to make the 8.

The next three weeks are critical as we play Pies, Bulldogs and probably Ess (in Alice, a real Home game).  All are 8 - point games and all immensely winnable.

Dare I dream that after round 14 we are 8/5 ??

With so many 8-point games and lack of consistency among many teams will 9 wins be enough to make finals?

In rounds 15 to 18 we play: Freo, GWS, Saints and Swans.  I reckon we can get 9 or 10 wins.  Finals here we come?

Agree I think more likely it’ll be Freo in Alice but will have to wait and see

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