THE RUN HOME 2020

[Whispering_Jack]

The run home after Round 11:-

1 PORT ADELAIDE Played 11, 36 pts, 142.7% 

TO COME Geelong Hawthorn Collingwood Essendon North Melbourne Sydney 

2 BRISBANE LIONS Played 11, 32 pts, 119.6% 

TO COME North Melbourne St Kilda Carlton Collingwood Gold Coast Sydney

3 GEELONG Played 11, 28 pts, 130.7% 

TO COME Port Adelaide Adelaide Essendon Richmond Sydney Western Bulldogs

4 WEST COAST Played 10, 28 pts, 117.3%

TO COME Hawthorn GWS Giants Essendon North Melbourne Richmond St Kilda Western Bulldogs

5 ST KILDA Played 11, 28 pts, 111.6%

TO COME Essendon Brisbane GWS Giants Hawthorn Melbourne West Coast

6 RICHMOND Played 11, 26 pts, 116.6% 

TO COME Gold Coast Essendon Adelaide Fremantle Geelong West Coast

7 COLLINGWOOD Played 11, 26 pts, 116.0% 

TO COME Melbourne North Melbourne Brisbane Carlton Gold Coast Port Adelaide

8 GWS GIANTS Played 10, 24 pts, 104.7% 

TO COME Sydney West Coast Adelaide Carlton Fremantle Melbourne St Kilda

9 ESSENDON Played 10, 22 points, 90.0% 

TO COME St Kilda Richmond Geelong Hawthorn Melbourne Port Adelaide West Coast

10 MELBOURNE Played 10, 20 points, 109.9% 

TO COME Collingwood Western Bulldogs Essendon Fremantle GWS Giants St Kilda Sydney

11 W. BULLDOGS Played 11, 20 points, 89.9% 

TO COME Adelaide Melbourne Fremantle Geelong Hawthorn West Coast

12 GOLD COAST Played 11, 18 points, 100.9% 

TO COME Richmond Carlton Brisbane Collingwood Hawthorn North Melbourne

13 CARLTON Played 10, 16 points, 94.7% 

TO COME Fremantle Gold Coast Adelaide Brisbane Lions Collingwood GWS Giants Sydney

14 FREMANTLE Played 10, 16 points, 88.2% 

TO COME Carlton Sydney GWS Giants Melbourne North Melbourne Richmond Western Bulldogs

15 HAWTHORN Played 10, 16 points, 85.2%

TO COME West Coast Port Adelaide Adelaide Essendon Gold Coast St Kilda Western Bulldogs

16 NORTH MELB Played 11, 12 points, 82.1% 

TO COME Brisbane Collingwood Fremantle Gold Coast Port Adelaide West Coast

17 SYDNEY Played 10, 12 points, 78.2% 

TO COME GWS Giants Fremantle Brisbane Lions Carlton Geelong Melbourne Port Adelaide 

18 ADELAIDE Played 11, 0 points, 55.5% 

TO COME Western Bulldogs Geelong Carlton GWS Giants Hawthorn Richmond

[titan_uranus]

Obviously the biggest factor in us making finals is us. On current form our best chance of getting to 10 wins would be to beat Collingwood, the Dogs and Essendon (in addition to Fremantle and Sydney, meaning we lose to both GWS and St Kilda).

Winning those five in particular helps our chances quite a bit.

Essendon would then need to win 5 of its other 6 (which is Port, West Coast, Richmond, Geelong and Hawthorn - I'm happy to say they won't get 5 of them).

The Dogs would then need to win all 5 of their other matches (Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast), and then would have to pass us on percentage.

Collingwood would need to win 4 of its other 5 (North, Brisbane, Carlton, GC, Port - would mean they have to beat one of Brisbane/Port to pass us). So this week is huge for us - if we drop it, even though we could still get to 10, Collingwood would get to 10.5 just by beating North, Carlton and GC, so we'd likely be done trying to catch them.

I'm getting way too far ahead of myself.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter]

9 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Obviously the biggest factor in us making finals is us. On current form our best chance of getting to 10 wins would be to beat Collingwood, the Dogs and Essendon (in addition to Fremantle and Sydney, meaning we lose to both GWS and St Kilda).

Winning those five in particular helps our chances quite a bit.

Essendon would then need to win 5 of its other 6 (which is Port, West Coast, Richmond, Geelong and Hawthorn - I'm happy to say they won't get 5 of them).

The Dogs would then need to win all 5 of their other matches (Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast), and then would have to pass us on percentage.

Collingwood would need to win 4 of its other 5 (North, Brisbane, Carlton, GC, Port - would mean they have to beat one of Brisbane/Port to pass us). So this week is huge for us - if we drop it, even though we could still get to 10, Collingwood would get to 10.5 just by beating North, Carlton and GC, so we'd likely be done trying to catch them.

I'm getting way too far ahead of myself.

I don't think you are - that is the equation.

With this short season, it feels like the season has only really just got under way and yet we are rapidly closing in on the regular season's end.

It's time for our boys to stand up and deliver in big pressure games.

I wouldn't be happy just falling over the line into the top eight either.  Really need to beat a few of the more likely finalists like GWS or the Saint's to give the side some confidence and momentum headding into finals.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

[titan_uranus]

1 hour ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I don't think you are - that is the equation.

With this short season, it feels like the season has only really just got under way and yet we are rapidly closing in on the regular season's end.

It's time for our boys to stand up and deliver in big pressure games.

I wouldn't be happy just falling over the line into the top eight either.  Really need to beat a few of the more likely finalists like GWS or the Saint's to give the side some confidence and momentum headding into finals.

Certainly I don't think I'm getting ahead of myself by talking about our finals chances or formline.

More that I'm looking at other teams' runs home which are irrelevant if we don't win.

But casting my eye over the ladder, it feels like the only sides with a realistic chance of falling out of the 8 are St Kilda, GWS and Collingwood, and the best-placed sides to take a spot, other than us, are Essendon and the Dogs.

We literally play every single one of those clubs.

Essentially means that if we make finals, we will have done so by beating our competitors for a spot. We won't be sneaking in based on beating lower-ranked sides in the final month.

Edited August 12, 2020 by titan_uranus

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter]

@titan_uranus, I know there is that old clechè of taking it one game at a time, but I'm also of the view that we need to start  being confident enough that we have an expectation of winning most if not all of those games, otherwise to me it's just like expecting mediocrity of another practically wasted season from our team.  Not beating the teams above/around us on the run home would mean that we haven't improved and matured as a team and would actually represent a huge step backwards for me on 2019, which is not where I think we are at.

[Pickett2Jackson]

if only we had pinched the Geelong or Brisbane game.   Lost both under a goal!

[Premiers]

2 hours ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

if only we had pinched the Geelong or Brisbane game.   Lost both under a goal!

imv it is the Geelong game which will come back to haunt us: 

• We experimented with 1 tall fwd (TMc who was badly out of form) - I wrote at the time it was very risky as we had few wins in the bank. And it disrupted our ball movement.
• We deserted our i50 when Geelong kicked from a pt or a mark, allowing them to chip short kicks around until our wall broke down .  At no time did we change the wall outside the 50 arc and try and man up.  So much for our supposed fwd pressure!!
• We were ill prepared.  Goodwin said they didn't play the way he thought the game should be played.  May said we planned for them but they changed tactics. Tactics (possession and control) that have beaten us time and time again.  112 marks to 52 says it all!! 
• Neither the coaches nor players adjusted for the changed Geelong tactics. 
• It was another games where we win some key stats (H.O and Clearances) but were badly beaten all over the ground.and

We lost by 3 points.

If we just miss finals that is the game that cost us.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[Premiers]

Posted this in another thread but equally relevant here:

I feel time is starting to run out for teams that have played 11 games and outside the 8 (or in the lower part of the 8).  I think we (and some other teams) have a real advantage over them.  Use Bulldogs as an example:  Assume 10 games needed to make finals:  Bulldogs (on 5 wins from 11 games) need 5 wins from remaining 6 games.  Whereas Demons (on 5 wins from 10 games) need 5 wins from remaining 7 games.  Same logic applies to teams at the lower end of the 8.  Maybe the Ess forced bye may come back and help us...

[Pollyanna]

I think the West Coast sooks are not a lock.  They'll come away from Perth and start stinking it up again.  Would not be surprised to see them end up on 10 wins and their percentage to take a hit.  Quite frankly it couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch.

[58er]

19 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Obviously the biggest factor in us making finals is us. On current form our best chance of getting to 10 wins would be to beat Collingwood, the Dogs and Essendon (in addition to Fremantle and Sydney, meaning we lose to both GWS and St Kilda).

Winning those five in particular helps our chances quite a bit.

Essendon would then need to win 5 of its other 6 (which is Port, West Coast, Richmond, Geelong and Hawthorn - I'm happy to say they won't get 5 of them).

The Dogs would then need to win all 5 of their other matches (Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast), and then would have to pass us on percentage.

Collingwood would need to win 4 of its other 5 (North, Brisbane, Carlton, GC, Port - would mean they have to beat one of Brisbane/Port to pass us). So this week is huge for us - if we drop it, even though we could still get to 10, Collingwood would get to 10.5 just by beating North, Carlton and GC, so we'd likely be done trying to catch them.

I'm getting way too far ahead of myself.

Don't forget Saints who if lose to Bombers will only be 1 game ahead and down in % with us Still to play them in the Alice.

Then  it's a matter of wins from then on in.
Also with Jacko out Tommy  plays in ruck and Brown at CHF and Tomlinson says in to add to Ruck division if Gawny doesn't play 

If it's wet then that is better anyway.

Still got our four stars in the ball and up forward plusWeid Kossie and Fritta to lead the forward division.

 

[titan_uranus]

GWS losing is obviously good for us in the short term: we beat Collingwood, we pass GWS.

But it's a reminder that we can't just assume we're going to bank the Fremantle and Sydney wins.

[Premiers]

Below is a table to summarise 'Wins Needed' and 'Games Left' in the run home.  It assumes 10 games required to make the 8.

My contention is the first 4 will make the 8 (not necessarily top 4) and the last 3 (and those below them on the ladder) can't make the 8.  So the discussion is for the 7 (middle) teams vying for the remaining 4 spots in the 8.

My thoughts:

Most Likely to make it:

• Saints (need 3 wins):  Likely wins: Ess, Hawks.  I think they will find another win and make it.
• Tigers (need 3.5 to 4 wins):  Likely wins:  GCS, Ade, Freo.  I think they will find another win and make it.

That leaves two spots:

• Pies (need 3.25 to 4 wins):  Likely wins:  North, Carlton, GCS.  Can't see another 'obvious' win.
• Giants (need 4 wins):  Likely wins:  Ade, Carlton, Freo.  Need another win.
• Ess (need 4.5 to 5 wins):  Likely wins:  Hawks but can't find other 'obvious' wins.  % hurts them.  They won't make it.
• Dees (need 5 wins):  No 'obvious' wins and no 'obvious' losses.  Every game will be a dog fight.
• Bulldogs: (need 6 wins):  Will lose to Geelong and Eagles which means they fall one game short and have a poor % to overcome.

So on my reckoning the last two spots come down to Pies, Giants, Dees.

Special mention to Freo:  They are the 'wild card'.  I said early this week that and won't be easy to beat.  They have recently beaten the Saints and Pies.  They have a very good system and getting better at it with each game.  They won't make the 8 but could have a big say in who does, playing 3 of the 7 teams (in blue) vying for a spot in the 8.

Edited August 14, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[3183 Dee]

11 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Below is a table to summarise 'Wins Needed' and 'Games Left' in the run home.  It assumes 10 games required to make the 8.

My contention is the first 4 will make the 8 (not necessarily top 4) and the last 3 (and those below them on the ladder) can't make the 8.  So the discussion is for the 7 (middle) teams vying for the remaining 4 spots in the 8.

My thoughts:

Most Likely to make it:

• Saints (need 3 wins):  Likely wins: Ess, Hawks.  I think they will find another win and make it.
• Tigers (need 3.5 to 4 wins):  Likely wins:  GCS, Ade, Freo.  I think they will find another win and make it.

That leaves two spots:

• Pies (need 3.25 to 4 wins):  Likely wins:  North, Carlton, GCS.  Can't see another 'obvious' win.
• Giants (need 4 wins):  Likely wins:  Ade, Carlton, Freo.  Need another win.
• Ess (need 4.5 to 5 wins):  Likely wins:  Hawks but can't find other 'obvious' wins.  % hurts them.  They won't make it.
• Dees (need 5 wins):  No 'obvious' wins and no 'obvious' losses.  Every game will be a dog fight.
• Bulldogs: (need 6 wins):  Will lose to Geelong and Eagles which means they fall one game short and have a poor % to overcome.

So on my reckoning the last two spots come down to Pies, Giants, Dees.

Special mention to Freo:  They are the 'wild card'.  I said early this week that and won't be easy to beat.  They have recently beaten the Saints and Pies.  They have a very good system and getting better at it with each game.  They won't make the 8 but could have a big say in who does, playing 3 of the 7 teams (in blue) vying for a spot in the 8.

Nice work.

[In Harmes Way]

Not a bad fixture overall for us to finish, good 6-7 day breaks against tougher opponents and not a ridiculous amount of travel with short turnarounds between games and no obvious difference in the break between rounds for our opponents):

Collingwood - Gabba - Sat evening off a 6 day break (Coll 4 day break)

Doggies - Metricon - Sat afternoon, 7 day break (Doggies 6 day break)

St Kilda - Alice Springs - Sat evening, 7 day break (Saints 6 day break)

Sydney - Cairns - Thursday twilight, 5 day break (Swans 5 day break)

Freo - Cairns - Monday evening, 4 day break (Dockers 5 day break)

GWS - Gabba - Saturday, 5 day break (GWS 4 day break)

Ess  - TBC (Essendon play rnd 17 game in SA on same day as us in Qld)

 

 

[deelusions from afar]

6 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

Not a bad fixture overall for us to finish, good 6-7 day breaks against tougher opponents and not a ridiculous amount of travel with short turnarounds between games and no obvious difference in the break between rounds for our opponents):

Collingwood - Gabba - Sat evening off a 6 day break (Coll 4 day break)

Doggies - Metricon - Sat afternoon, 7 day break (Doggies 6 day break)

St Kilda - Alice Springs - Sat evening, 7 day break (Saints 6 day break)

Sydney - Cairns - Thursday twilight, 5 day break (Swans 5 day break)

Freo - Cairns - Monday evening, 4 day break (Dockers 5 day break)

GWS - Gabba - Saturday, 5 day break (GWS 4 day break)

Ess  - TBC (Essendon play rnd 17 game in SA on same day as us in Qld)

 

 

That's a bit comforting... but I guess it will be more about the cumulative effect.  Especially as some of these teams will presumably have a bye in this block - actually maybe it's just the saints?

[jnrmac]

On 8/13/2020 at 10:04 AM, Lucifer's Hero said:

imv it is the Geelong game which will come back to haunt us: 

• We experimented with 1 tall fwd (TMc who was badly out of form) - I wrote at the time it was very risky as we had few wins in the bank. And it disrupted our ball movement.
• We deserted our i50 when Geelong kicked from a pt or a mark, allowing them to chip short kicks around until our wall broke down .  At no time did we change the wall outside the 50 arc and try and man up.  So much for our supposed fwd pressure!!
• We were ill prepared.  Goodwin said they didn't play the way he thought the game should be played.  May said we planned for them but they changed tactics. Tactics (possession and control) that have beaten us time and time again.  112 marks to 52 says it all!! 
• Neither the coaches nor players adjusted for the changed Geelong tactics. 
• It was another games where we win some key stats (H.O and Clearances) but were badly beaten all over the ground.and

We lost by 3 points.

If we just miss finals that is the game that cost us.

Nailed it

 

[jnrmac]

10 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

Not a bad fixture overall for us to finish, good 6-7 day breaks against tougher opponents and not a ridiculous amount of travel with short turnarounds between games and no obvious difference in the break between rounds for our opponents):

Collingwood - Gabba - Sat evening off a 6 day break (Coll 4 day break)

Doggies - Metricon - Sat afternoon, 7 day break (Doggies 6 day break)

St Kilda - Alice Springs - Sat evening, 7 day break (Saints 6 day break)

Sydney - Cairns - Thursday twilight, 5 day break (Swans 5 day break)

Freo - Cairns - Monday evening, 4 day break (Dockers 5 day break)

GWS - Gabba - Saturday, 5 day break (GWS 4 day break)

Ess  - TBC (Essendon play rnd 17 game in SA on same day as us in Qld)

 

 

Only 1 side that will have more break than us?

Can't complain about that.

[Diamond_Jim]

9 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Nailed it

 

Yep that Geelong loss effectively finished our season.

Posted this some weeks ago. Realistically we needed a win against Port or Brisbane to recover.

The only thing to change from 4 odd weeks ago is that the Pies game has become 50/50 as perhaps so too has the GWS game. 

Still a very hard task and while possible on a game by game basis the cumulative challenge leaves little room for error.

[Rab D Nesbitt]

if we finish either 5th or 6th can we nominate Alice Springs as our 'home' ground ? 

[titan_uranus]

7 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Below is a table to summarise 'Wins Needed' and 'Games Left' in the run home.  It assumes 10 games required to make the 8.

My contention is the first 4 will make the 8 (not necessarily top 4) and the last 3 (and those below them on the ladder) can't make the 8.  So the discussion is for the 7 (middle) teams vying for the remaining 4 spots in the 8.

My thoughts:

Most Likely to make it:

• Saints (need 3 wins):  Likely wins: Ess, Hawks.  I think they will find another win and make it.
• Tigers (need 3.5 to 4 wins):  Likely wins:  GCS, Ade, Freo.  I think they will find another win and make it.

That leaves two spots:

• Pies (need 3.25 to 4 wins):  Likely wins:  North, Carlton, GCS.  Can't see another 'obvious' win.
• Giants (need 4 wins):  Likely wins:  Ade, Carlton, Freo.  Need another win.
• Ess (need 4.5 to 5 wins):  Likely wins:  Hawks but can't find other 'obvious' wins.  % hurts them.  They won't make it.
• Dees (need 5 wins):  No 'obvious' wins and no 'obvious' losses.  Every game will be a dog fight.
• Bulldogs: (need 6 wins):  Will lose to Geelong and Eagles which means they fall one game short and have a poor % to overcome.

So on my reckoning the last two spots come down to Pies, Giants, Dees.

Special mention to Freo:  They are the 'wild card'.  I said early this week that and won't be easy to beat.  They have recently beaten the Saints and Pies.  They have a very good system and getting better at it with each game.  They won't make the 8 but could have a big say in who does, playing 3 of the 7 teams (in blue) vying for a spot in the 8.

Nice work, @Lucifer's Hero.

Richmond's draw means they probably only need 3 wins, will put them on 9.5 and that will put them above any 9-win side no matter what percentage. At any rate, I see them winning 4 of their last 6.

Essendon's draw means their low percentage doesn't matter any more, but as you say, good luck to them finding 4 wins in that bunch.

The season really is in our hands though, given who we play. If we make it even to 9 wins, we'll have had to beat at least two sides who are competing with us for their 9th or 10th wins.

The percentage we built in the Hawthorn/Adelaide/North games, after losing so much to Port, could be important too, if we get a bunch of sides finishing on 9 instead.

[ding]

Win tomorrow and i will be happy to put my balls on the line and say we WILL make finals.

Our fixture isnt anything to whine about when you compare the breaks our opponents will be getting. No great head-starts for anyone we face for the rest of the season tbh. When you look at who we play, and who our most likely competition for 7/8th on the ladder plays, i think we have the most favorable run.

Nothing at all to stop us playing finals other than our own attitude.

Bring the effort each match and we should [censored] it in. Lose against the Pies and the hit to our confidence might be too much.

My money is on us making 8th on percentage.

[CHF]

It is a pretty complex situation with the ladder at the moment with the postponed Bombers game and the byes spread out the way that they are.

With the remaining games locked in through Round 18, and as the ladder sits at the moment, just about all the games for us will be 8 point games.

MFC prior to Round 12 we sit 10th on the ladder with 20 points and 110%

Round 12 - Vs Collingwood they sit 7th on the ladder 6 points better and +6%

Round 13 - Vs Bulldogs they sit 11th on the ladder same points -20%

Round 14 - Vs Saints they sit 5th on the ladder 8 points better +1.5%

Round 15 - Vs Swans they sit 16th on the ladder 4 points less -25%

Round 16 - Vs Dockers they sit 17th on the ladder 4 points less -22%

Round 17 - Vs Giants they sit 8th on the ladder 4 points better -12%

Round 18 - Vs Bombers They sit 9th on the ladder 2 points better -20%

Still to have bye weekends of that group are Bulldogs, Saints and Collingwood.

Finals play is very much in our own hands given the games we play from here on in. 

I predict 5 wins from the last seven rounds and all the way to the line our season will be on a knife edge.

 

[The Red Fox]

Record against teams above us: 1 win, 5 losses

Record against teams below us: 5 wins, 0 losses

Games remaining against teams above us: 1 

Games remaining against teams below us: 5

We’ll win 10+ and finish 5th.

[Fanatique Demon]

A W I S E assessment.

[Dees2014]

I think we are building into a consistency very similar to our run home in 2018. If you remember we were pretty inconsistent in the first half of 2018 but came home very strongly. We are also building our percentage nicely which may prove important in this shortened season, especially for us to sneak into the top 4. 
 

Anyway, tonight was our best win since the 2018 final series, with an almost full list especially if we can get max back We have a real chance this year to do something really special.