Defining Success in 2020 - Is Just Making Finals Enough?

[Sir Why You Little 37,033]

Top 4 should be the base objective of our Club each year. That is what it should be...

Top 8 out of 18 shouldn’t be a huge hurdle

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

39 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Top 4 should be the base objective of our Club each year. That is what it should be...

Top 8 out of 18 shouldn’t be a huge hurdle

We have to win 8 more games than we did last year just to clear that minor hurdle you refer to as finals footy.

I genuinely don’t know if we have it in us.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Bring-Back-Powell

[BAMF 4,349]

6 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

What does finding 5% for Salem look like @BAMF - put it into some observable metrics for me  

I had to really think about this.

I'm not really the biggest stats guy, more of an eyeball assessment. It's difficult to say 'He needs to get 3 more effective kicks'.

I've been vocal in the past about how Champion Data does the best job possible of applying ranking points to a game that is impossible to rank accurately. But in this context there is no other observable metric than can be applied correctly.

Salem averaged 90 Supercoach points this year in total. He was on track for 95 before a severe drop off in the last few rounds. An increase of 5% on top of 95 is 99.75. 

6 hours ago, Bay Riffin said:

I disagree. Melksham TMac and Petracca have elite attributes in the forward line. Frisch showed plenty in the last 7-8 games. Thats4 players of real quality. Only Petracca looked to be in a position of fully fit and playing forward last year. 

We have great competition for a second tall with weideman, petty, Jackson and Smith. 

Our gaping hole is forward pocket but we have some talent in Kossi, chandler and Bedford coming through. 

 

On paper if we got all those fit for round one we should do some damage. 

I agree with you on most points here. So it must be the 'Great on paper' part you disagree with me on. 

TMac - Agree.

Melksham - Agree.

Petracca - Agree, but he will hopefully be playing a lot more midfield this year.

Fritsch - Agree. Really looking forward to seeing him play forward all year. I think it could be amazing.

Weideman - is still only potential at this stage. Hopefully he is injury free and has the year we expected he was going to have last year.

Petty - Promising but very raw. I was excited about what he showed forward last year, but he is gaining hype among supporters which isn't realised yet.

Jackson, Smith are pure hope at this stage and on paper do not register.

So really, we have one tall forward with runs on the board, some promosing second talls, some really good mid size players. No small.

As I said, I hope by the end of the year we can say otherwise bit right now? Thats not great.

[Sir Why You Little 37,033]

55 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We have to win 8 more games than we did last year just to clear that minor hurdle you refer to as finals footy.

I genuinely don’t know if we have it in us.

It depends on if you want to be excellent or just average

There is nowhere to hide. Imagine if the AFL had relegation...

[rjay 24,917]

We need to be a legitimate premiership contender for this season to be a success.

Simple...

We've been building this list for long enough.

Now's the time to put the runs on the board.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,166]

11 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

For me in 2020;

- finishing top 4 is a success; 

- finishing top 6 is a pass;

- finishing below this is underwhelming; and

- finishing outside of the 8 is a war crime.

 

 

Very similar to Rob for me. 

Top 4 a success with finals (rather than top 6 ) a pass. Anything less would want to come with significant impacts to our list.

I am surprised that so many are concerned about us kicking a winning score. I think the big concern is at the other end. People do forget we were the highest scoring team in 2018 and a lot of that came without Hogan. Even last year we got the ball in there plenty but rarely had TMac, Fritsch or Melksham at the end of it or we kicked ourselves out of it. This year we should have all three plus at least one of an improved Weid or Petty. Our backline will be held together by two injury prone talls in May and Lever and two players of ageing quality in Jetta and Hibberd. Our ability to defend will be heavily weighted on 20+ games each out of the first two and a significant improvement in our midfields defensive attributes. Hopefully this comes with a strong preseason.  

[kongwacker 69]

It seems one part of the football dept. have got 90% of the list in good preseason shape. Now over to the brains trust part to introduce and implement a game plan that can be executed by the list. A plan that is not one dimensional and can be shut down by a studious and committed opposition. And a plan that can withstand the rigours of the marathon that is the AFL season so therefore one that is not all crash and bash and sees the talent on the list able to best display football skills to advantage the team.

I hope to see a team that has matured to the point where it can change gears in a game and or switch to plan B, C or whatever number of alternative plans good coaching devises on the run to get and stay on top within the game.

A slice of Northey years toughness and commitment from this list would be great to watch.

I can dream.

[Bay Riffin 1,474]

11 hours ago, BAMF said:

I had to really think about this.

I'm not really the biggest stats guy, more of an eyeball assessment. It's difficult to say 'He needs to get 3 more effective kicks'.

I've been vocal in the past about how Champion Data does the best job possible of applying ranking points to a game that is impossible to rank accurately. But in this context there is no other observable metric than can be applied correctly.

Salem averaged 90 Supercoach points this year in total. He was on track for 95 before a severe drop off in the last few rounds. An increase of 5% on top of 95 is 99.75. 

I agree with you on most points here. So it must be the 'Great on paper' part you disagree with me on. 

TMac - Agree.

Melksham - Agree.

Petracca - Agree, but he will hopefully be playing a lot more midfield this year.

Fritsch - Agree. Really looking forward to seeing him play forward all year. I think it could be amazing.

Weideman - is still only potential at this stage. Hopefully he is injury free and has the year we expected he was going to have last year.

Petty - Promising but very raw. I was excited about what he showed forward last year, but he is gaining hype among supporters which isn't realised yet.

Jackson, Smith are pure hope at this stage and on paper do not register.

So really, we have one tall forward with runs on the board, some promosing second talls, some really good mid size players. No small.

As I said, I hope by the end of the year we can say otherwise bit right now? Thats not great.

Hannam is the other one. Sadly still in rehab. When I looked at our highlights and goals in 2018 his passing was exceptional. We need his kicking skills. 

[FlashInThePan 1,893]

3 hours ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

Very similar to Rob for me. 

Top 4 a success with finals (rather than top 6 ) a pass. Anything less would want to come with significant impacts to our list.

I am surprised that so many are concerned about us kicking a winning score. I think the big concern is at the other end. People do forget we were the highest scoring team in 2018 and a lot of that came without Hogan. Even last year we got the ball in there plenty but rarely had TMac, Fritsch or Melksham at the end of it or we kicked ourselves out of it. This year we should have all three plus at least one of an improved Weid or Petty. Our backline will be held together by two injury prone talls in May and Lever and two players of ageing quality in Jetta and Hibberd. Our ability to defend will be heavily weighted on 20+ games each out of the first two and a significant improvement in our midfields defensive attributes. Hopefully this comes with a strong preseason.  

I agree with a lot of your post but just want to make the point that until last year May has been a very durable player. He played 17+ games every year until last year and most of his missing games were due to suspension. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

13 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

There is nowhere to hide. Imagine if the AFL had relegation...

would we now be third or fourth division?

[640MD 3,375]

For me,

The first 5 games will define the season I think,

and we need to start like a runaway train in the first quarter against Eagles,

Two games at the Gee, we need to win one at least.

Likewise two away win one at least,

Given 2019 was fitness, training, and endurance stuffed we should be much better than  that in 2020.,

2018 might have been one step more than we deserved but being in the mix to finish 6-12 is barely a pass. The higher the better,

I think the top 4 is a step too far, but depending on how well some players go and if other teams are poor.  Perhaps

Eagles, Richmond, Giants, Brisbane for the top 4.

I think Collingwood will fall    ( or hope they will)                  Suns and Blues at the base then Essendon and the Pies then everyone else so even that it might be a dogs breakfast and Footescray and ourselves might climb above the rest.

I just hope we turn up to play for the first quarter of each game, far too much catch up last year.

 

Go Dees

 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

14 hours ago, BAMF said:

Salem averaged 90 Supercoach points this year in total. He was on track for 95 before a severe drop off in the last few rounds. An increase of 5% on top of 95 is 99.75. 

Nicely put - I sometimes find it hard to work through what people/commentators 'really mean' by that sort of phraseology around being x% better. Sometimes i just like cold hard quantifiable metrics. 

[DeeSpencer 25,680]

Win the flag or get in the best possible position to win the flag in 2021-onwards.

Finals is a realistic aim and winning now isn’t a handicap on winning later, in fact it’s the oppsite. But I am weary of the trap of the later Daniher years, selling out to make finals and never contending. 

 

[Damo 3,355]

I see us making the top 6 but the following players are very hard to cover above 75%. If they play 18-23 games Im confident.

Stephen May- currently limping off the ground on Friday. I can imagine Petty or Omac coming in for him but no one with his speed and toughness.

Max Gawn. Best ruck man in the league. I can see Tomlinson marking deep forward and back but Petty in the ruck. Still a worry to have to include 2 players to cover one.

Clarry. We run deep in mids but his hands and ability to clear are unique.

Aaron van der Berg. Tough, wins contests. Makes a difference.

Viney. No one tackles in our side like him. Currently under rated.

All these players are hard men and put a spine into the rest. They play without injury and we sing the song.

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

12 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Win the flag or get in the best possible position to win the flag in 2021-onwards.

Finals is a realistic aim and winning now isn’t a handicap on winning later, in fact it’s the oppsite. But I am weary of the trap of the later Daniher years, selling out to make finals and never contending. 

 

The selling out is an interesting perspective @DeeSpencer - what's your take on that?

[Dr. Gonzo 24,209]

Top 4 and winning one final is a pass mark.

[Neil Crompton 5,535]

IMV, defining success in 2020 has to be measured against the 2018 season. The 2019 season was clearly an aberration for all the reasons previously discussed at length. 

In 2018 we lost a preliminary final - and therefore, for me, a successful year in 2020 will be achieved if we go at least one step better - ie winning a prelim final. Anything less should be viewed by the Club - and certainly will be by me - as a failed season.

Can we do it? That is the question. While there may be some psychological scares from 2019 to overcome, I believe we should be a better team this year than in 2018, for the following reasons:

- a better list of players

- a more experienced list

- more experienced coach and coaching staff

- a better fitness coach

- considerably more competition for places in the team.

With all these advantages over 2018, the issue will be how well the coach and his staff can heal the scares of 2019 and gel this group of individual players into a well oiled team. If they cannot do that, then, given the above, I will see this as a coaching failure.

 

 

[DeeSpencer 25,680]

47 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

The selling out is an interesting perspective @DeeSpencer - what's your take on that?

I think there’s times you have to move on from both coaching game plans and players who might help short term but aren’t going to get it done.

In terms of players, older players are the simplest targets but also guys who don’t have the skills, or the two way efforts or the physicality. And it might be moving guys back to Casey to develop a skill or moving positions to use other parts of their games. 

Similarly conserving and developing your best players in other roles has to be a factor. Oliver forward. Petracca half back. Gawn CHB. All things I’d like to see if we’re just a middle of the road side, rather than playing them all max minutes to get to 12 wins. 

I look at what Bevo has done at the Dogs post flag whilst they’ve had a mini rebuild and he’s moved a lot of magnets and tried a lot of different plans. It’s probably caused short term pain whilst they’ve restocked with talent but they’re well placed to contend now. 

Edited January 12, 2020 by DeeSpencer

[picket fence 17,145]

On 1/11/2020 at 11:42 AM, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Posting this as a question, based on a proposition. I know this might seem like a somewhat strange and over ambitious given the 2019 that we have just endured, but to me, just stumbling over the line and making finals in 2020 would not represent enough of an improvement or step forward for me to get excited about. In my lifetime, I watched many talent laden MFC teams show loads of promise and even make a grand final or two, but barely any that I have watched have played consistently well enough finish the season in a preimship winning position of being in the upper echelon of the ladder with all it's perks of getting a double change and potential rest weeks at the pointy end. In the 80s, this would have ment a top 3 finish and now a days it's top 4.

I follow the MFC aspiring to one day watch them win a premiership. Making finals is simply not enough for me. I've watched the MFC play lots of finals over the last 30 years, notch up some good wins in them. I have seen the MFC play the kind of dominant kind of foot where myself and fellow supporters have rued watching GF's that we though we could have won, but been unable to contend after being bundled out of finals series at critical times. The reality is that for a number of reasons, unless teams finish in the top 4, they don't really have a fighting chance of making, let alone winning a GF.

Is finishing top 4 in 2020 a realistic objective? - I think it is. Richmond in 2017 went from 13th to 3rd. In 2018, although we only just stumbled into the finals series, from recollection, we were only a couple of wins off finishing top 4, with very winnable games against Geelong (twice), St Kilda and Port Adelaide that come to mind. I'm really hoping that 2019 was somewhat of an arbitration and this year we have an 'easy' draw to help us - something which probably helped the Tigers in 2017.

Our lack of compressiveness in 2019 was hard to watch and down right depressing at times, but in spite of that I wasn't that upset about it, because unless we won the premiership, then it was just another wasted season in the amoung the many that I have a supporter. I know that the team would be silly to publicly overtly state finishing top 4 as being the aim for the home and away season, but I really do hope that's what it is internally when guys like Roos have previously spoke about playing the kind of footy that will make us competitive in finals and push deep into September. Over the coming years as we enter that all important age/experience 'window' within our list, I really hope to see us adopt a new level of maturity, professionalism and ruthlessness that playing finals becomes an expectation and finishing top 4 and playing in premierships is the aim, not just making finals and I don't see why that shouldn't start in 2020.

In a Word NO! If we don't go DEEP into finals I would call the season a failure. As an Aside if Goody can't get a finals spot this year I reckon it will be "See ya later"

[Macca 16,961]

If those making projections had to pay a price if they got it wrong,  I reckon you'd see any number of people taking a far more conservative approach on how we'll fare

But there is never any price paid so grandiose predictions abound.  Most footy fans are the same.  Hope & faith rules ... that's how we're wired. 

Kinda gives us something to whinge about down the track.

Been there, done that.

But given how untrustworthy the club is we could win anywhere between 8 -14 games.

So all things considered I'll take the middle ground of 11 wins and no finals.  I won't be entirely happy with that as it's not my ambition but the club is too mentally weak for my liking

The bookies have us as 6 - 4 to make the 8 (which is a bit skinny) and 6 -1 for top 4 (skinny as well) 6 - 4 also means that we've got a better than even money chance of missing the finals (according to the money men)

After last year,  I reckon deep down many will 'accept' 11 wins albeit begrudgingly contrary to their own ambition for the club.  11 wins can be viewed as a stepping stone too.

I see making the finals as a bonus as we'll almost certainly get a few injuries to our better players and we don't have that many proven good players. 

But 2021 could deliver an entirely different outcome.

By the way,  we are mere onlookers so everything is in the club's hands.  And I'd like to think that my view is neither pessimistic nor optimistic.

Beige, boring - yep.  Just keeping it real.

That's how I see it.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Macca

[Bitter but optimistic 22,239]

2 hours ago, picket fence said:

In a Word NO! If we don't go DEEP into finals I would call the season a failure. As an Aside if Goody can't get a finals spot this year I reckon it will be "See ya later"

And ….. given the changes in list, coaching, support and admin …….. so it should be.

47 minutes ago, Macca said:

 

I see making the finals as a bonus as we'll almost certainly get a few injuries to our better players and we don't have that many proven good players. 

 

 

This is a major issue for us. We haven't got the depth to cover injuries to key personal. We had a pretty good run in 2018 and we need it again this year. 

[MyFavouriteMartian 572]

On 1/11/2020 at 3:13 PM, BAMF said:

I would like to see some players make that next step.      Brayshaw and Petracca are my main two that I have high hopes for.

Salem to find that extra 5% and added consistency.

Harmes could actually keep improving. I think most people think he has improved enough but there isn't any reason why he couldn't jump up to A grade talent.

Viney to stay injury free and remind a few on here about how he can actually play

Yep

On 1/11/2020 at 3:13 PM, BAMF said:

 

I'm also looking forward to seeing what Fritsch, Weid and Petty provide up front. On paper our forward line is not great.

It's time for both Fritta and Weide to pull their weight.   And play more robustly.

[MyFavouriteMartian 572]

19 hours ago, BAMF said:

had to really think about this.

I'm not really the biggest stats guy, more of an eyeball assessment. It's difficult to say 'He needs to get 3 more effective kicks'.

I've been vocal in the past about how Champion Data does the best job possible of applying ranking points to a game that is impossible to rank accurately. But in this context there is no other observable metric than can be applied correctly.

Salem averaged 90 Supercoach points this year in total. He was on track for 95 before a severe drop off in the last few rounds.

IMO its time he became more a leader,  and be observed to play more dynamically.   To taker the game on more. 

Maybe to take some more risk on,  offensively.?

[Little Goffy 14,523]

I think I can see what the club seemed to be trying to create, even though it went so horribly, horribly wrong in 2018. I also think I can see that the actual players required to do it are there on the list now - we aren't playing a style that is mis-matched with what we've got.

Shiver down my spine but I really believe if it comes together we're not talking about 'competitive' or 'respectable', we're talking about truly dominant.

I think what our current list, and strategy, could conceivably produce is even better than the Round 6 to 11 run of 2018.

So, bugger it, I'm going to say that success in 2020 looks like:

- a few rounds of being 'competitive' while we find our feet, being 4-1 after round five but people saying it is mostly a soft draw and we were lucky against one of the Giants/Eagles.

- pushing the Tigers to the wire in round 6.

- and then going 15-1 in the remaining 16 rounds, to finish top of the ladder with a 19-3 win loss and a metric obscenity of percentage.

Maybe we win the premiership, maybe we wont. But the finals will be epic.

[dpositive 1,665]

4 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

I think I can see what the club seemed to be trying to create, even though it went so horribly, horribly wrong in 2018. I also think I can see that the actual players required to do it are there on the list now - we aren't playing a style that is mis-matched with what we've got.

Shiver down my spine but I really believe if it comes together we're not talking about 'competitive' or 'respectable', we're talking about truly dominant.

I think what our current list, and strategy, could conceivably produce is even better than the Round 6 to 11 run of 2018.

So, bugger it, I'm going to say that success in 2020 looks like:

- a few rounds of being 'competitive' while we find our feet, being 4-1 after round five but people saying it is mostly a soft draw and we were lucky against one of the Giants/Eagles.

- pushing the Tigers to the wire in round 6.

- and then going 15-1 in the remaining 16 rounds, to finish top of the ladder with a 19-3 win loss and a metric obscenity of percentage.

Maybe we win the premiership, maybe we wont. But the finals will be epic.

I reckon we win the premiership as well