Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 21

[layzie 34,000]

Think Hunt is a good in. Ronke and Hayward have pretty good toe so we'll need some of his dash to break a line if needed. 

[Demons11 7,051]

Reading between the lines with Goody on SEN, it looks like Hunt will come in.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

47 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

He's never lost to Melbourne.

My concern for this game is Sydney's defensive pressure will lock us in like Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn did.

Is this the same defensive pressure that has been close to non-existant for the last month?

[dazzledavey36 55,351]

14 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Frost played on Buddy (4g 3b). OMac on Rohan.  This was the Friday night game that Bugg hit Mills. Swans lost their first 6 games and this was their 9th win.

1st qtr Swans had 9 shots on goal for 1g 8b. We started with 4 straight.

 

Last year against them we didn't have Nathan Jones, Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Angus Brayshaw, Christian Salem, Bayley Fritsch, Charlie Spargo and Aaron Vandenberg.. While their side is actually not too similar to the one they have this weekend.

It wont let me upload a screen shot from last years line ups, but our side for the weekend is levels above last years!

No excuses this week!

 

 

[Clintosaurus 7,861]

Mathew Nicholls hey? Good inclusion for the Swans. ?

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

9 hours ago, Rogue said:

Yeah, looks like it's likely to be pretty wet - potentially stormy. I'm not sure that helps us.

We play Sunday, so i think thats looking ok at the moment, but you never know.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

5 hours ago, JTR said:

Game is on Sunday. Current forecast isn't too bad

Thats what i meant.

 

[loges 6,767]

1 hour ago, Clint Bizkit said:

He's never lost to Melbourne.

My concern for this game is Sydney's defensive pressure will lock us in like Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn did.

Just like last year's game, we have to play the game on our terms.

[SPC 3,551]

1 hour ago, GCDee said:

Try not to run & carry???? 

That is literally his best asset.. apart from slotting torps from 70 out after the siren. 

I really want hunt in to find form before finals, he adds elite speed. With him and frosty in the back half they could easily burn their direct opponent for some easy exits. 

The ability to run and carry is evaluated by providing the ball to a team mate in a better position. Hunt can run and carry, but often runs into dead ends and chip kicks  15m or handballs to a team mate under pressure. My point is he should focus more on defence to free up a better offensive option in Salem or Lewis.

[Lucifers Hero 40,362]

It isn't just their well known players we have to watch out for. 

Last week George Hewett had 25 disposals @ 80%, 10 Clearances and they have a bunch of handy, young small forwards.  Not sure we have a bunch of small defenders.

We aren't good at wet weather football and Sydney have exploited that in the past so lets hope for a dry day. 

Not feeling confident.

Edit:  more confident now that Jane02 has reported Max a likely starter.  Will help neutralise Syd midfield

Edited August 10, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[hells bells 2,023]

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Frost played on Buddy (4g 3b). OMac on Rohan.  This was the Friday night game that Bugg hit Mills. Swans lost their first 6 games and this was their 9th win.

1st qtr Swans had 9 shots on goal for 1g 8b. We started with 4 straight.

 

Remember that last year, we were coming off 4 x 6 day breaks.  You could see the players were stuffed by half time.  Amplified in the 2nd half by Viney going off at half time and Bugg being rattled after belting Mills.

im expecting a far different result.  Dees by 6 goals.

[DubDee 26,117]

Sydney missing: Grundy, Melican, Mills, Naismith and Reid. We should be able to test their defence.

Our midfield is in better form that theirs.

Their fwd line looks dangerous with 2 talls and 4 smalls. If Buddy is on and Papley etc get out the back we could be in trouble.

In summary, if our (team) defence holds up like it has been I think we win.

[layzie 34,000]

48 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

It isn't just their well known players we have to watch out for. 

Last week George Hewett had 25 disposals @ 80%, 10 Clearances and they have a bunch of handy, young small forwards.  Not sure we have a bunch of small defenders.

We aren't good at wet weather football and Sydney have exploited that in the past so lets hope for a dry day. 

Not feeling confident.

Exactly, its these guys I'm worried about. I'm confident we can do a half decent job on Buddy (fingers crossed) but its the speed of Ronke and Hayward up forward and then there's Hewitt who is becoming renowned for his tackling pressure. 

Edited August 10, 2018 by layzie

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

52 minutes ago, hells bells said:

Remember that last year, we were coming off 4 x 6 day breaks.  You could see the players were stuffed by half time.  Amplified in the 2nd half by Viney going off at half time and Bugg being rattled after belting Mills.

im expecting a far different result.  Dees by 6 goals.

On the other hand, Mills played no further part in the game. I'm not sure the net impact of Bugg being rattled and Mills being off the ground helps explain why we lost.

[binman 43,764]

11 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

On the other hand, Mills played no further part in the game. I'm not sure the net impact of Bugg being rattled and Mills being off the ground helps explain why we lost.

We were cooked.

Such a frustrating game as it was evident from the get go we had nothing left in the tank. In fact in retrospect that was really the end of our season.

[jnrmac 20,186]

Just looking at past scores..

The Swans last four wins against Melbourne they have scored :

85pts, 86pts, 88pts and 69pts.

Hardly a devastating forward line. So if our midfield holds sway and we can get our season average i50s we should by rights get a win....

[Deemania since 56 6,717]

2 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Just looking at past scores..

The Swans last four wins against Melbourne they have scored :

85pts, 86pts, 88pts and 69pts.

Hardly a devastating forward line. So if our midfield holds sway and we can get our season average i50s we should by rights get a win....

Absolutely. Their percentage is a reflection of their tiring, one avenue to goal, as well. 

[Cards13 9,117]

4 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Frost played on Buddy (4g 3b). OMac on Rohan.  This was the Friday night game that Bugg hit Mills. Swans lost their first 6 games and this was their 9th win.

1st qtr Swans had 9 shots on goal for 1g 8b. We started with 4 straight.

 

Goes to the notion that we need to stop supply, plus we were on the end of 3 short breaks. Frosty has been playing better now than last year in my view. 

[Mr Steve 3,820]

Goodwin is foxing. I can not see Hunt getting a game this weekend, well not in the firsts anyway.

[Freddy Fuschia 747]

3 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Last year against them we didn't have Nathan Jones, Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Angus Brayshaw, Christian Salem, Bayley Fritsch, Charlie Spargo and Aaron Vandenberg.. While their side is actually not too similar to the one they have this weekend.

It wont let me upload a screen shot from last years line ups, but our side for the weekend is levels above last years!

No excuses this week!

The excuse last year was that Jack Watts was out injured. That's one excuse that hasn't stood the test of time.

[pineapple dee 2,892]

3 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

Mathew Nicholls hey? Good inclusion for the Swans. ?

Great choice for an umpire, AFL. He's on the same level as Schmutt, Razor and Wallace, just a terrible umpire.

I'll do for half the price and I'll stuff up decisions for both teams.

[Lucifers Hero 40,362]

Just now, jnrmac said:

Just looking at past scores..

The Swans last four wins against Melbourne they have scored :

85pts, 86pts, 88pts and 69pts.

Hardly a devastating forward line. So if our midfield holds sway and we can get our season average i50s we should by rights get a win....

To put those scores in context (our score in brackets):

• 2017:  11.19.85  (7.8.50)
• 2016:  12.14.86  (4.7.31)
• 2015:  12.16.88  (7.8.58)
• 2014:   9.15.69   (5.8.38)

Only their inaccuracy has stopped the result being a complete bloodbath.  Last year it was embarrassing - our only Friday night at the G.  30 scoring shots to 15.  It was like watching a training drill.

Sydney are a notoriously low scoring side (not often more than 90pts and rarely over 100) relying on their defence to keep opp to a lower score. 

We are a vastly better side than in the past four years but we are still 'the easiest team to score against' so I'm not pinning my hopes on keeping them to a low score to get us over the line, especially if they have their straight kicking boots on. 

And, lets not underestimate Longmire - he is right up there with Clarkson as a smart coach.

[Gator 17,457]

^^^

Longmire is a very ordinary matchday coach. 

When they used to beat us easily our midfield was pox and we averaged about 45 inside 50s per game. 

I'm confident we'll win comfortably. 

[John Crow Batty 8,879]

10 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

To put those scores in context (our score in brackets):

• 2017:  11.19.85  (7.8.50)
• 2016:  12.14.86  (4.7.31)
• 2015:  12.16.88  (7.8.58)
• 2014:   9.15.69   (5.8.38)

Only their inaccuracy has stopped the result being a complete bloodbath.  Last year it was embarrassing - our only Friday night at the G.  30 scoring shots to 15.  It was like watching a training drill.

Sydney are a notoriously low scoring side (not often more than 90pts and rarely over 100) relying on their defence to keep opp to a lower score. 

We are a vastly better side than in the past four years but we are still 'the easiest team to score against' so I'm not pinning my hopes on keeping them to a low score to get us over the line, especially if they have their straight kicking boots on. 

And, lets not underestimate Longmire - he is right up there with Clarkson as a smart coach.

We never had a sniff in all those games. Completely smashed. 50 points our highest score. Hopefully things turn on Sunday.

[Dee tention 617]

I think not letting Sydney play a loose man in defence will go a long way to winning this game. That’s most likely a Aliir Aliir or a McVeigh! McVeigh is there kicker out of half back and needs be manned up like a rash when Sydney have the ball in there hands. 

Pederson can come in and chop out Max in the ruck but also allow either of Hogan and T Mac to push up the ground. Meaning Aliir Aliir is most likely going to have to man him up. If Pedo leads up it allows us to get over the back and expose the Swannies with Our smaller types.

If Aliir Aliir is going to play loose he needs to be manned up!

Edited August 10, 2018 by Dee tention