Road to the finals (the last 12 games)

[puntkick 325]

1 minute ago, bandicoot said:

 Have us winning every game if Gawn and hogan were playing.

Before or after now ?

[puntkick 325]

Silence is golden!

[Melb-A-Toast 257]

Melbourne has the 4th best scores for and midtable (9th) on scores against. Based on Simon Goodwin's statement prior to last game that we have won the 4th most quarters, these data tend to be a positive indicator to finishing the season well. 

Obviously losing the close ones, and starting poorly are the aspects which will have to improve to get these positive aspects to more wins.

[brendan 3,412]

Without gawn and hogan we have done pretty well to be 5/5 could you say the same for other teams if they lost there 2 best players 

where would these clubs be sitting if they lost there 2 best

richmond martin/reiwoldt 

geelong dangerwood

both would be close to bottom 4 imo so if we make finals will be well deserved 

[Lucifers Hero 37,323]

Of those in the 8:

• Freo will drop out at some stage. 
• Richmond is no certainty to stay.  They have just hung in there for most games and the only convincing wins were vs Brisb & Carl.  Playing with a relatively injury free team.  But they do have an easy draw.  Anyway, 9th is where they belong...
• WCE is no certainty to stay.  They have only 6 games at Subiaco (incl Geel, Demons, Port Adelaide) and they don't travel well.

So at least one maybe two spots available.  Of the contenders:

• St Kilda is similar to Richmond.  Good wins over Carlton, Hawks and GWS when the latter two had depleted teams.  No real claims.
• Essendon could sneak in as have good draw, mostly in Melbourne.
• North have a very very easy draw and a very well balanced side and they are bruising the opposition.
• Collingwood have a lot of very winnable games but performances are all over the shop.  Not reliable.
• Melbourne.  We have a good %age advantage on all 7 of above teams (except Rich).  If we win 6/7 very well and the others are close games we will make it even if only on %age.

Like last year the finals are in our own hands - depends how badly the players want it. 

It may come down to us or North.

 

Edited May 28, 2017 by Lucifer's Hero

[deespicable me 1,435]

15 hours ago, bringbackthebiff said:

I really like that - making the top 8 would be awesome. 

However there are other alternatives. One of them is to also sneak a few interstate/away games and make the top 4. After this round we are potentially 2 games from second. 

Yeah but at half time on Saturday I was sure we were a bottom four side.

I would like to beat GWS interstate in round 20 and sit around where we are now and the uberhype clactometer go absolutely beserk. Demonland has record number of posts as we anticipate the last 3 games v Saints, Brisbane and Collingwood all at the "G", and a potential finals birth for the first time in a long time.

Imagine the permutations. If team A,B and C all lose 2 of their last 3 games and we win all 3 we can make top 4 etc etc. I will give up work and live for the final 3 weeks and what may lie beyond in a state of euphoria. Till we lose to the Saints of course.

[beelzebub 22,282]

As a psuedo abstract , the teams that WILL make the 8 are thd the ones who have completed the task of winning the games they should as well as the odd pick-up against the tide.

I currently struggle to include us.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,585]

3 hours ago, beelzebub said:

As a psuedo abstract , the teams that WILL make the 8 are thd the ones who have completed the task of winning the games they should as well as the odd pick-up against the tide.

I currently struggle to include us.

No team this year has won all the games they "should"

[old55 21,608]

Three consecutive 6 day breaks with a trip to Perth in the middle - that's as tough as it gets.  Ink in a loss to Sydney.

[What 18,810]

5 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

Three consecutive 6 day breaks with a trip to Perth in the middle - that's as tough as it gets.  Ink in a loss to Sydney.

We will beat Sydney.  Our midfield is the heir apparent to their once dominant big bodied, contested ball winning machine.

They arent the Swans of past years either. Also Hogan and Gawn will have some games under their belt by the time we play them.

[old55 21,608]

13 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

We will beat Sydney.  Our midfield is the heir apparent to their once dominant big bodied, contested ball winning machine.

They arent the Swans of past years either. Also Hogan and Gawn will have some games under their belt by the time we play them.

Let's see who is right.  It's not about capability - it's about the 3 consecutive 6 day breaks with a trip to Perth.  IMO we are no chance.

Edited May 29, 2017 by Fifty-5

[loges 6,225]

I reckon the only sides that are a lock for the eight are the top 2 Adelaide & GWS. With the others anything is possible

[In Harmes Way 7,613]

Our club owes my 11 yo boy, for one, a great debt in having to be one of 2 demons supporters ridiculed at his school over the last 6 years. He actually wants to go to the footy now.

There's a spot there for the taking, and we are much more talented than the alternatives. BUT IT MUST BE EARNED, through a 4Q effort, every week. 

Get it done, boys.

 

[Moonshadow 16,382]

Wonder if our young guns will tire as the season progresses.

[MudDogs Gawn Win.. someday 499]

You never wish injury on a player especially a gun. But the Dogs losing Murphy for a month and potentially Kennedy being out for possibly a month (just looking at how he did his calf/heard a pop) may open up just the slightest of opportunities for us.

If Hogan returns for QB and Gawn the same if not week after maybe just maybe we could string 3 together and get some GODDAM MOMENTUM!!

Edited May 29, 2017 by Mud Dogs Gonna Win

[beelzebub 22,282]

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

No team this year has won all the games they "should"

Bugger. That makes it worse as we have to, from now 

[Binmans PA 26,467]

So Josh Kennedy (Eagles) will be out for 4 weeks. That means he'll currently miss the game against us. Very interesting...

[bandicoot 1,395]

14 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Of those in the 8:

• Freo will drop out at some stage. 
• Richmond is no certainty to stay.  They have just hung in there for most games and the only convincing wins were vs Brisb & Carl.  Playing with a relatively injury free team.  But they do have an easy draw.  Anyway, 9th is where they belong...
• WCE is no certainty to stay.  They have only 6 games at Subiaco (incl Geel, Demons, Port Adelaide) and they don't travel well.

So at least one maybe two spots available.  Of the contenders:

• St Kilda is similar to Richmond.  Good wins over Carlton, Hawks and GWS when the latter two had depleted teams.  No real claims.
• Essendon could sneak in as have good draw, mostly in Melbourne.
• North have a very very easy draw and a very well balanced side and they are bruising the opposition.
• Collingwood have a lot of very winnable games but performances are all over the shop.  Not reliable.
• Melbourne.  We have a good %age advantage on all 7 of above teams (except Rich).  If we win 6/7 very well and the others are close games we will make it even if only on %age.

Like last year the finals are in our own hands - depends how badly the players want it. 

It may come down to us or North.

 

Can't see dees getting in on 11/12 wins. Will require13 games and then they get in regardless of what else happens. Destiny is in their own hands 

Edited May 29, 2017 by bandicoot

[Garbo 1,348]

11 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

No team this year has won all the games they "should"

I'd say tigers and freo have. Both have lost only to fellow top 8 sides. On that form you would expect both to get to 12+ wins unless they have a very poor draw

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

The QB game this year is going to be a belter. We simply have to win it, given that we play the Dogs at Etihad the following week and West Coast at Subi the week after that.

Surely we'll get 70,000 plus for it.

 

[Dee-licious 1,867]

23 hours ago, deespicable me said:

Yeah but at half time on Saturday I was sure we were a bottom four side.

I would like to beat GWS interstate in round 20 and sit around where we are now and the uberhype clactometer go absolutely beserk. Demonland has record number of posts as we anticipate the last 3 games v Saints, Brisbane and Collingwood all at the "G", and a potential finals birth for the first time in a long time.

Imagine the permutations. If team A,B and C all lose 2 of their last 3 games and we win all 3 we can make top 4 etc etc. I will give up work and live for the final 3 weeks and what may lie beyond in a state of euphoria. Till we lose to the Saints of course.

If we beat GWS in round 20, there will be not bag left, the cat will have shredded it; the lid would have been exploded off; and Melbourne will become everyone's second favourite team.....  

8 hours ago, bandicoot said:

Can't see dees getting in on 11/12 wins. Will require13 games and then they get in regardless of what else happens. Destiny is in their own hands 

Based on what we have seen so far this year and the fact that only Brisbane arent competitive, it looks like 11 wins will get you to 8th. Pre GWS and GC 10-12 wins were getting you in. Also dont look at those ladders, it will depress you. We were seriously bad....

[Dr. Gonzo 22,585]

12 hours ago, beelzebub said:

Bugger. That makes it worse as we have to, from now 

Lucky we got ours out the way already

[Dr. Gonzo 22,585]

11 hours ago, Garbo said:

I'd say tigers and freo have. Both have lost only to fellow top 8 sides. On that form you would expect both to get to 12+ wins unless they have a very poor draw

Freo maybe, Tigers should've beat Freo 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,585]

10 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

The QB game this year is going to be a belter. We simply have to win it, given that we play the Dogs at Etihad the following week and West Coast at Subi the week after that.

Surely we'll get 70,000 plus for it.

 

Pies supporters have dropped off, only 32k against the Lions last week.

For all their bravado we generally split the crowd on Queens Bday

[Demons11 6,404]

On 28/05/2017 at 8:58 AM, JV7 said:

The hard bit is going to be the amount of 6 day breaks we have, this section is brutal:

Round 12 Collingwood

6 day break 

Round 13 W. Bulldogs

6 day break 

Round 14 West coast (In perth)

6 day break 

Round 15 Sydney 

This stretch here will define our season

I think we had a similar run to this last year.   We lost to the Saints, just lost to WC and then beat Hawks and Port.  I remember Roos they really put a lot of planning into the 4 week bloke and I can see them doing the same with this block of games.  

I think we can win 3 out of the 4